As the NBA moves past the first quarter mark of the 2024 season, the Orlando Magic are off to one of their most promising starts in years.
Firmly in the top 5 of the Eastern Conference standings, the Orlando Magic have entered the chat with the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat as one of the best the East has to offer. And the Magic have wins over the Celtics and Bucks to boot.
Some may have seen this coming. Most probably did not.
Either way – the Magic have made enough noise in the early part of the season that they have earned the right to be part of the playoff discussion. And it seems highly likely the Magic will stay in that conversation.
To be sure, expectations around this team have risen from a play-in hopeful to a surefire playoff team. There is a lot for the team to build on -- even if there is still work to do.
Before looking too far forward to the second quarter of the season and the Playoffs beyond it, we want to look back at the top five things that have gone right (and wrong) for the Magic so far this season.
5 things that have gone right (or wrong) in the first quarter of the Orlando Magic's season
1) Gone Right – Stifling Defense
Going into the 2024 season, there was reason to believe the Orlando Magic could be a good defensive team.
But boy have they been tenacious to start the season.
Orlando currently sits fourth in total scoring defense with only 109.9 points allowed per game. While they are middle of the league in 3-point and field goal percentage allowed. They currently rank second in the NBA in forced turnovers with 15.5 forced a game.
Orlando's ability to pressure opposing offenses and steal possessions away from its opponents has been a major factor in the team’s success so far this year.
The Magic’s roster still consists of many young players who are developing on offense so their ability to play high-level defense and keep games close cannot be understated.
This team has excelled in many areas, but none may have had a bigger impact in the win column than the level this young and aggressive defense has played at.
5 things that have gone right (or wrong) in the first quarter of the Orlando Magic's season
2) Gone Wrong – 3 Point Shooting
To be fair, the Orlando Magic probably have not been a relatively good 3-point shooting team since the Dwight Howard era. There was no reason to believe coming into the season that they were going to be the second coming of Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors Dynasty.
But Orlando and its fans hoped for better than what has been demonstrated so far. Shooting remains the biggest issue facing this team and the most glaring need the team has to address.
The Magic shoot the second-fewest amount of 3-pointers per game (29.8) and make them at the fifth-worst rate (34.4 percent).
In the modern NBA, this is a huge disadvantage.
For comparison, the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, the top two teams in the Eastern Conference at the moment, shoot 42.4 and 37.2 3-pointers per night and knock down 37.2 percent and 38.3 percent of them respectively. If a team is going to be a low-volume shooting team, they have to make them and the Magic just are not that.
This leads to difficult matchups where Orlando shoots less and makes a lower percentage of threes than the best teams the East has to offer. If not improved throughout the season, this likely could be the downfall of Orlando come late- and postseason play.
Orlando has found a way to survive it. And the team's offense is surprisingly flirting with the top half of the league -- Orlando has not had an offense outside of the bottom 10 in the league since Howard's last season in 2012. But everyone knows this weakness remains.
5 things that have gone right (or wrong) in the first quarter of the Orlando Magic's season
3) Gone Right – Depth and Development
Most NBA teams run eight- or nine-man rotations on a given night. So far this year, the Magic have 12 different players who are averaging double-digit minutes a night thanks to injuries to two starters. But even then, the Magic are comfortable running a 10-man rotation.
Even still six of those 12 players averaging at least 10.0 minutes per game are averaging double-digit points per night.
Early evidence points to Orlando being one of the NBA's deepest teams this season. But how?
Orlando did have two lottery picks this past offseason in Anthony Black and Jett Howard, but only Black so far has started to make an impact at the NBA level (5.2 points per game in 19.5 minutes per game). The Magic also only signed Joe Ingles in free agency. And although he has given the Magic some good minutes and performances this year, he has not been the biggest mover of the needle either.
The biggest reason Orlando’s roster is so much better this year than last is a testament to the development of the returning players.
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have become one of the best young duos in the league this season averaging 41.0 points/12.6 rebounds/8.3 assists per game between the two of them.
Jalen Suggs has given the team a nice jump in production averaging almost 3.0 points per game more than last year (12.5 against 9.9) off a 4.8 percentage point jump in field goal percentage and a 5.5 percentage point jump in 3-point shooting.
And even though statistically Cole Anthony has not made a huge leap year over year, he is playing as well as any bench player in basketball right now and deserves some buzz for the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year Award.
The returns on development and hard work for a young and deep roster have been one of the highlights for the Magic and their early success this season.
5 things that have gone right (or wrong) in the first quarter of the Orlando Magic's season
4) Gone Wrong – Injuries
Going into the season, the Orlando Magic looked to be fully healthy with no significant injuries. But since they have played the majority of the season without starting point guard Markelle Fultz and starting center Wendell Carter. Each out with a knee and finger ailment respectively that both have been slowly returning from as the second quarter of the season gets underway.
The Magic’s bench has performed well above average in the early part of the season. Goga Bitadze and Moe Wagner have held down the front court admirably. Cole Anthony has played phenomenally. Even rookie Anthony Black has looked more comfortable by the game.
But this team has felt the absence of Wendell Carter and Markelle Fultz despite all of the success so far.
Carter is a great two-way center who makes his presence felt by attacking and protecting the rim. Fultz has proven time and time again he is the team’s best ball distributor and can be a defensive force in his own right.
While the silver lining is the Magic have been able to learn a lot about their depth and bench players, the sad reality is this and its fans have only barely seen the roster at full strength and can only wonder how much better the record would be with more fortunate luck on the injury front.
5 things that have gone right (or wrong) in the first quarter of the Orlando Magic's season
5) Gone Right – Winning
At the end of the day it all comes down to winning and Orlando has done a lot of that in the early part of the season.
Through the first 25 games, Orlando has recorded 16 wins. Through the first 25 games last season, the Magic were 5-20. And the season prior to that? Also 5-20.
The Magic have flipped their recent trend of starting the season cold and have come out scorching hot. That has put the team in a position to make the playoffs and not merely fight for postseason scraps. It has given the team a surge of confidence.
A big reason for the increase in wins is the ability to close out tight games.
The Magic are 5-2 this season in games decided by six points or less (two possession games). Throughout an 82-game NBA season, the difference between making and missing the playoffs for many teams is often heavily correlated to their ability to win close games. Learning “how” to win can be a cliché for young teams in sports.
But it is clear this Magic team has learned from its past losses and finally found a group of guys who can come through in the game's closing moments.
If this team continues to develop and come together at the rate it has been, look for Winning to become a regular thing again in Orlando.