There is still a sense of discovery going on with Franz Wagner.
The Orlando Magic have operated so far from the central focus of the NBA's national media that beyond Paolo Banchero and his star-making turn last year, the league is still discovering who this Magic team is.
Franz Wagner then has still been somewhat in the background. As he signed a max extension this summer, many national fans only remember his woeful Game 7 showing.
The Olympics though began to quiet some of those doubts as he got named to the All-Olympics second team and had some of the biggest highlights from the games in Paris. Still, Germany fell short of medaling, losing to Serbia in the bronze medal game.
Wagner has All-Star potential. He could be so far out of the picture at the moment that his Olympic showing—18.5 points per game and 5.8 rebounds per game—was akin to Wagner entering the stage.
This came after a relative career season where Wagner averaged 19.7 points per game, 5.3 rebounds per game and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 48.2 percent overall in the floor. That includes his much-talked-about and frustratingly low 28.1 percent shooting from three.
Even with that detraction, Wagner could be one of the breakout players in the NBA this year.
To be sure, any accolades Wagner gets this year will come because of his team's success. That is always a requirement for All-Star bids. And to be a team with two All-Stars means you are on a team at the top of the standings (or are an already-established star).
Wagner and the Magic are starting to make waves in that regard. The Magic got three players into the top 100 in NBA 2K25 with Wagner coming in at No. 43 with an 86 overall. That certainly still suggests Wagner has work to do to be an All-Star in the league.
Wagner is still working to define stardom for himself. That is part of what he was learning to do at the Olympics this summer with some of the ups and downs he had, especially in the knockout rounds.
But there is a clear path for Wagner to be an All-Star in the 2025 season. One that should have fans and Wagner eager to get going this year.
Beyond the Magic's success as a team, what will it take for Wagner to be an All-Star this year? There is plenty for him to do take the next steps as a player and enter the conversation among the best young players in the league.
3. Increase his scoring average to at least 20.0 points per game
The Orlando Magic have had their share of top scorers on the team. Shaquille O'Neal, Anfernee Hardaway, Tracy McGrady, Dwight Howard, Nikola Vucevic and Steve Francis have all eclipsed 20.0 points per game in a Magic uniform before Paolo Banchero arrived two seasons ago.
But rarely have the Magic, despite all their historic teams and trend-setting offenses in their franchise history, had two players averaging 20 points per game. In fact, it has only happened twice—O'Neal and Hardaway in the 1995 and 1996 seasons.
There were a few close calls along the way—Hedo Turkoglu averaged 19.5 points per game in 2008 and Jameer Nelson hit 16.7 points per game in 2009. Franz Wagner's 19.7 points per game is as close as the team has come to that threshold.
Averaging 20.0 points per game is a nice round number that puts players in at least the conversation of being a star. That is not the only way to define stardom, of course—there were two players on the East All-Star roster that failed to hit 20.0 points per game last year. But it is an important step for a player like Wagner to reach.
So how does he get there? He is already very close—and that is with his 3-point shooting in the tank.
His outside shooting is a starting point as something he needs to improve. After averaging 35.4 and 36.1 percent from three in his first two seasons, he shot only 28.1 percent last year. He was just 7 for 35 (20.0 percent) during the Olympics.
A more consistent 3-point shot would undoubtedly help the team win more, giving the Magic necessary spacing for other drivers. But it would get Wagner a few more points too. And it is not going to take very much for him to get above 20 perent.
Just from a raw numbers standpoint, if he had shot his rookie year average of 35.4 percent from three last year, he would have averaged 20.1 points per game. It is not going to take him much to get above that magical number of 20.0 points per game.
It feels like a safe bet that Wagner will get over 20.0 points per game as is too. He looked much-improved on his already-strong driving abilities throughout the Olympics and improved as a playmaker.
There are plenty of ways for Wagner to increase his scoring average above 20.0 points per game. Even without his 3-point shooting that seems likely. And that will improve everything about the Magic.
2. Diversify his attacks on drives
Franz Wagner is among the elite players in the league on drives. It is his best offensive skill and defenses have had a hard time figuring out how to keep him out of the paint without committing two people to wall him up (like France did during the Olympics semifinals).
Last year, Wagner averaged 11.6 drives per game last year according to Second Spectrum, shooting 53.6 percent on his drives and scoring 8.6 points per game (a team-high and 20th overall in the league last year).
He made 67.5 percent of his shots in the restricted area. He was an elite finisher at the basket all season.
But he has to expand his game.
He averaged only 1.0 assists per game off those drives. And Wagner took precious few mid-range jumpers, just 47 total attempts at 34.0 percent.
Wagner is a bit one-dimensional. That is one of the many things holding him back. And it only adds to the emphasis and importance of his 3-point shooting.
Advance metrics already love Wagner. He will have a strong argument to make the All-Star team as long as his counting numbers continue to increase next year and the Magic continue to compete at the top of the Eastern Conference.
That shows that for Wagner to reach his high end in scoring, he has to add something to his game. His counting stats have to start matching his advanced metrics in some way.
Orlando will put the ball in his hands a lot more, that much is clear. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner will be on the ball a lot. They may be taking on essentially the point guard roles.
The Magic like to say they play by committee. They may not have a single player who racks up assists—Banchero led the team last year with 5.4 assists per game and Wagner was second with 3.7.
Wagner could also stand to be a better rebounder, something he put on display throughout the Olympics. He averaged only 5.3 rebounds per game.
Wagner has proven himself as a scorer. His scoring should continue to increase. But diversifying his game—both with his shot volume and selection and as a playmaker—will go a long way to proving he is at an All-Star level.
1. Prove himself on a big stage
When it comes to making the All-Star team, perception is still the reality. It is as much about a narrative and a story as it is about statistics. The fan voters certainly are focused much more on narratives and who is in the spotlight. Coaches know who is good, but they also do not have the time to watch every minute detail.
Big games matter.
And the Magic will have four of their five national TV games before the All-Star Break and before voting ends. Big games in these matchups will stick.
Just as, unfortunately, his 1-for-15 showing in Game 7 still sticks in everyone's mind.
To focus on that is to focus more on results over process. Wagner is still learning how to play in big games and how to be the star of those games. He is defining his stardom in many ways, learning when to impose himself as a scorer and when to focus more as a playmaker and playing as a playmaker.
He just has to do that in the brightest of spotlights—whether that is in the playoffs or in the Olympics.
The Magic as a whole need to play well in these games to be taken seriously as Eastern Conference contenders as they are clearly stating they want to be. Wagner has a lot to prove and the Magic as a team have a lot to prove.
To that point, Orlando as a team had the worst record among playoff teams with a 19-28 record against teams with records better than .500. The Orlando Magic had big wins—including a sweep over the Denver Nuggets and a high-profile win over the Boston Celtics in the In-Season Tournament.
But this remained a weak point. And if the Magic are going to climb the standings, it starts with winning these kinds of games.
Wagner had big games in those games too. Among his best games of the season last year were a 32-point effort in a December win over the New York Knicks at Kia Center; a 29-point, six-rebound, six-assist effort in a December loss to the Milwaukee Bucks; and 27-point efforts in the home win over the Denver Nuggets and the December loss to the Phoenix Suns.
Wagner plays plenty well against marquee opponents. But it is about doing it on the right stage.
Perception is reality, particularly when it comes to the All-Star Game. That is why hitting the 20-points-per-game threshold matters for his candidacy. It is why the Magic winning matters for his candidacy. And that is why Wagner playing well in national TV games matters.
That is what perception is built on. And that is Wagner's ticket to the game in San Francisco in February.