The NBA season has not yet begun but it is already easy to begin thinking about what will be in store.
The Magic's players have talked about their ambitions to win homecourt advantage and surprise the league again after finishing with the 5-seed last year. They are already thinking about the playoffs, even in October.
April is a long way away. And there are going to be several markers before then. If the Magic are going to accomplish those goals there is one way station on the way that will speak to where the Magic are at.
All-Star voting is a long way from now too. The All-Star teams are not revealed until January. And the Magic's schedule in the first half of the season could be very difficult—including being part of the toughest group in the Eastern Conference for the NBA Cup.
If Orlando is going to be a team with homecourt advantage, it will undoubtedly happen because their two young stars progress into true All-Stars.
Paolo Banchero is already there, trying to become a perennial All-Star and someone who spends every February wherever the league hosts its All-Star weekend. Franz Wagner is trying to get there and his presence as a second All-Star for the Magic likely comes because the Magic are a great team.
That is the chicken or the egg problem. Is a player an All-Star because their team is good or is a team good because they have good players?
The answer is, of course: Yes.
Orlando needs Banchero to take another step and grow as a playmaker, creator and scorer. And the team needs Wagner to improve his scoring and improve his shooting to reach another level in the NBA hierarchy.
But ultimately how those two players are viewed in the larger NBA narrative depends on how they impact their team in the standings. It is all about how they help Orlando climb the standings.
Unless a team has really popular players, the only way a team gets rewarded with two All-Stars is by being at the top of the standings. That is what the coaches will always recognize first.
That is where the Magic's two star players stand when it comes to their preseason odds of making the All-Star team.
The question then is whether the Magic will be good enough to get Wagner more serious consideration for the honor and whether Banchero takes the big step into becoming a perennial All-Star whose spot on the team is assured every season.
Paolo Banchero's path to perennial All-Star
To be sure, Paolo Banchero is already well on his way to this perennial All-Star status.
He has put up historic numbers for a second-year player and has stat lines that compare and rank with all-time great players. Not to mention players who could count at least a decade's worth of All-Star appearances.
Barring a surprise down season or the Magic slipping down the standings, Banchero should be in San Francisco for All-Star Weekend in February. Banchero is really fighting to be on the All-NBA team this year. He has bigger goals than just an All-Star appearance, now that he has done that.
He should not even need to make the kinds of improvements his critics are calling for too. Another season averaging 23-7-5 will put him in All-Star consideration, although that is not likely to lead him to climb the rankings in NBA perception.
Banchero improving his efficiency and leading the Magic to the top of the Eastern Conference will assure him a spot on the All-Star team.
But Banchero is trying to crack the group of players who get recognition as a starter in the league or the tier of players for whom an All-Star berth is a guarantee and not dependent on any injury status or having a standout season.
Orlando being a top team in the Eastern Conference should check off that mark. The coaches vote on the reserves and typically defer to who is leading in the standings when they file their votes.
Banchero improving his efficiency and playing well in marquee games—four of the Magic's five national TV games take place before the coach's vote at the end of January and three take place before the end of December—will go a long way to raising his notoriety.
All-Star voting can indeed be a battle of perception. And Banchero still has to make up some time to get into the voters' consciousness. He is not a household name yet even though he is getting there.
Breaking into the starting group will be especially tough. There are a lot of quality players in the Eastern Conference.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, and Joel Embiid likely fill the starting frontcourt spots for a while. Embiid's health might be the only thing that keeps him from starting. Even then, he is likely to get the fans' vote to start in the All-Star Game.
That leaves Banchero fighting for a reserve spot until he becomes a true household name and likely even the leader of a title contender.
If we can assume Damian Lillard and Tyrese Haliburton (or potentially Jalen Brunson) take the starting guard spots, then you have to figure out where Paolo Banchero fits among the likely players heading to All-Star Weekend coming off the bench.
Banchero is knocking on the door of perennial status. But the recent moves in the Eastern Conference means he still has to prove himself to get a spot on the roster.
Tyrese Maxey or Donovan Mitchell will take the other guard spot off the bench and one of the wildcard spots. They are perennial All-Stars.
Paul George and Karl-Anthony Towns represent newcomers to the conference who could push their way into the fray. George has made the Western Conference All-Star team in nine of the last 12 years and Towns has made the All-Star team in four of the last years. Towns being in New York now and on a contending team probably increases his odds (as it would Mikal Bridges depending on player stats).
And Jaylen Brown should get a second nod from the Boston Celtics as the likely top team in the Eastern Conference.
If Banchero is not already someone you can pencil in as an All-Star that is 11 of the 12 spots on the team already booked.
Nobody should assume Banchero is an All-Star in October. He has not established himself as such. And the Magic have a lot to prove just as Banchero has a lot to prove to establish their place permanently in the top of the Eastern Conference.
Franz Wagner's path to his first All-Star bid
Clearly, there are a finite number of spaces on these All-Star teams. And there are a lot of those spots accounted for assuming players are healthy and play the way they are expected to play and their teams finish where they are expected to finish.
That means it is almost essential for the Orlando Magic to finish better than anyone expected if Franz Wagner is going to be an All-Star this season. The Magic have to be so undeniably good that they are one of those special teams that gets two All-Stars.
That does not even get into the players who will be pushing for a spot, even from teams that are not at the top of the Eastern Conference. Trae Young, Darius Garland, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Pascal Siakam have all been All-Stars before and should be on teams competing for a postseason spot to varying degrees.
Mikal Bridges, Evan Mobley, Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday will be pushing for another All-Star bid from the top teams in the Eastern Conference.
And that does not get into potential wild card selections from expected teams at the bottom of the standings like Scottie Barnes (favored argument nemesis for the Magic's young stars), Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, LaMelo Ball, second-year forward Brandon Miller, and Cade Cunningham.
There is a lot of talent throughout the conference.
They all may be longer shots to make the All-Star team with how many key players on winning teams there are. If the Magic are in the top six in the Eastern Conference, it feels impossible they will not get at least Paolo Banchero on the All-Star team.
But getting a second player like Franz Wagner? That is going to take Wagner improving his counting stats from the 19.7 points per game he averaged last year and the Magic being one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.
Wagner can easily put himself in consideration with a season that sees improved counting stats and the continued advanced numbers that have everyone drooling over his impact. Some better 3-point shooting would help too.
But ultimately, and it is the same with Banchero too, the path to the All-Star Game is paved with the team's success. If the Magic want the individual accolades that come throughout the season or after the season, it starts with the team finding success on the court.
There will be a lot of competition for the spots on the Eastern Conference All-Star team regardless. The league is as talented as it has ever been and the Eastern Conference is getting deeper. There are some very good teams the Magic are trying to beat in the standings just as much as their individual players are trying to make their mark.
Banchero feels like a certain bet to make the All-Star team assuming the Magic are competing for a Playoff spot. Wagner has work to do to get there. And a lot of that work will come from the team taking its own step up.