The Magic have started the preseason, which means superstar Paolo Banchero is getting ready for his third season in the NBA. He was already named an All-Star in just his second season, and he plans to keep the accolades coming along with team success.
Banchero is coming off a season in which he averaged 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on 45.5/33.9/72.5 shooting splits in 35 minutes per game. These are outstanding stats for a second-year player and have Magic fans exhausting their imagination on how these stats will look year after year.
Banchero's all-around game is what truly makes him special. His play style is very similar to that of LeBron James. This is not to say the third-year star is anywhere in the same category as James, but he does resemble a young James strictly based on their play styles.
Both are big strong forwards that can score on all three levels but excel at getting to the basket and shooting the mid-range shot. They both can also grab rebounds from the forward position, and they both are excellent playmakers for their size.
He may not accomplish all that James did, but his play style makes him an impossible cover and it is exciting to watch, and see his progression from Duke to year three in the NBA. Although his main goals this year probably have to do with the team winning, getting a high seed, and making it past the first round, there are a couple of individual goals he should look to accomplish.
Goal #3: Average around 25 points per game
Paolo Banchero had a great season offensively, but going into year three is where he can really make the big jump. He already averaged 22.6 points per game last year, and the scary part is that there are so many areas in which he can improve and get better. He has been a 20-point-per-game scorer since he entered the league, but 25 points per game is normally the mark of an elite scorer, and Banchero is very capable of reaching that.
There are some simple ways for Banchero to get a few extra points every game and raise his average. He is already elite at getting to the rim and scoring from the mid-range, but raising his three-point percentage and free-throw percentage could make the difference for his average and getting a few more wins.
The three has never been Banchero's go-to shot, but his range has been expanding in a league where you have to be able to spread the floor to stay on it. Last season Banchero took 4.4 threes per game and made 1.5 of them, making him a 33.9 percent three-point shooter. Expecting Banchero to be a 40 percent three-point shooter with his offensive workload and playstyle is a bit unrealistic, but getting that number up to the 37-38 percent mark could make all the difference and force defenses to guard him more on the perimeter.
There are a few ways he can do this besides being in the gym in the offseason and working on his shot. The first is working on his shot selection from deep. Banchero shot 36.4 percent on catch-and-shoot threes, but only 32.2 percent on off-the-dribble threes. Making sure he is taking shots in rhythm and off the catch instead of taking off the dribble threes will boost his numbers.
Banchero is known to take a lot of side-step and step-back threes, which can be effective at some points, but should not be a go-to and rather more of a last resort. Banchero can get better shots a lot of the time and should try getting to his spots more.
Another problem with these shots is they often draw contests. Banchero shot 36.3 percent on open to wide-open threes, and just 17.1 percent on contested threes. Although he is an improving 3-point shooter, he is not at the point yet where he should be forcing these shots up. Hopefully, Franz Wagner finding his shot again and the addition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will lower his three-point attempts, or at least the contested ones.
He also needs to work on his corner three, the easiest three in basketball. Banchero is a rare player, shooting exceptionally well from the wings and top of the key but just 25 percent from the corners.
Aside from his threes, Banchero needs to work on hitting his free throws. He does a great job of getting to the line, taking seven free throws per game, which was eighth in the league last year. The only problem is he is shooting just 72.5 percent from the line. This is not great, and if he wants to be a true superstar, he needs to get to at least 75 percent. Hopefully, he can get closer to 80 percent.
The last way he can up his scoring is by making sure his conditioning is good and that he is in the best shape of his life. The NBA season is long and draining physically and mentally and people have to remember that Banchero has only played in two NBA seasons so far, so he is just getting used to it now.
Banchero saw a bit of a drop-off post All-Star break. His numbers dipped as the long season was nearing its end. He eventually did pick it back up and had one of the most impressive playoff series a player had last year. But in what ended up being a tight Eastern Conference, a little bit better play and another win or two could have changed the Magic’s seeding and the outcome of their season.
Before the All-Star break, Banchero averaged 23 points per game on 46.4 percent shooting from the field and 36.5 percent from three. Post All-Star break, he averaged 21.6 points per game on 44 percent shooting from the field and 28.8 percent from three. This is nothing majorly concerning as his scoring only dropped off slightly and his other stats, like assists and rebounds, actually improved. He just needs to make sure he gets his legs under him and is still scoring at an elite rate in the home stretch of the season.
Goal #2: Get some All-Defensive team votes
With the offense running through Banchero and him being the team’s primary option, it would be very difficult for Banchero to make one of the two All-Defensive teams. Especially since there are only two teams and they can be any combination of guards, forwards, and centers. However, getting some votes would show his progression on his journey to becoming an elite two-way player.
The Magic already have the identity of one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They were top-3 in defensive rating as well as second-chance points allowed and top-10 in paint points allowed per game. This was due to a complete team effort. The Magic already had All-Defensive second-team guard Jalen Suggs and added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who also received votes.
Those players along with Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr., who are elite defenders for their positions, will make the Magic a nightmare to match up against. Banchero will have a big role in that too. Paolo had a defensive rating of 111.8, which is a career high and with his size and length, he has the potential to do even better this year.
Banchero is on a top defensive team and as he gets older and his defensive IQ grows it is not beyond him to be an elite defender himself—especially if Franz Wagner bounces back and takes some of the offensive pressure off him. Banchero draws a lot of elite matchups and does a great job of holding his own.
He held Kawhi Leonard to 6-20 shooting, Jayson Tatum to 3-12 shooting, Zion Williamson to 2-11 shooting, and Jaylen Brown to 2-10 shooting. These are some of the NBA's most elite scorers, and they all struggled against Banchero.
If Banchero continues to dominate these matchups and makes it tough on the league’s premiere players he will definitely get All-Defensive looks, especially if the Magic are winning games with these efforts. Another way to get some votes would be to get to that one-steal-per-game mark.
Banchero in his two seasons has averaged .8 steals per game, and then last year .9 which seems so close to one steal per game but it is just not quite the same. It's like being 5'11 but claiming 6ft. It’s just not the same. The players who average at least 1 steal per game get looked at and talked about differently and are thought of as defensive disruptors.
64 NBA players averaged at least one steal per game last year, so in order to get recognition as a top defensive talent in the league, you have to be at that mark.
Some may think that just receiving votes is not a real goal or should not be something to aim for, but you have to think about where Banchero came from. When he entered the league and was in the draft process the two main criticisms of Banchero were if he would be able to shoot the deep ball, and if he could hold his own on the defensive side of the court.
Being criticized for his defense coming into the league and then getting votes for All-Defensive teams by his third season would really show his progression throughout his young career. Most NBA greats received All-NBA defensive team votes at some point in their career.
LeBron James was a DPOY runner-up, Kevin Durant still receives All-Defensive team votes every year, and even Steph Curry received some votes back in 2016. If you want to be a great in this game, you must learn how to guard in this league. And with a 6-10 frame and 7'1 wingspan, Banchero has the body, the IQ, and the skills to get this done.
Goal #1: Make an All-NBA team
The third and most important goal for Banchero this season is to make an All-NBA team. To make an All-NBA team you have to be a top 15 player in the NBA. The NBA recently changed the rules to make All-NBA teams positionless. So, Banchero does not just have to be top of his position like in an All-Star voting, but he has to be one of the best in the league.
There was already an argument to be made last year that Banchero was worthy to be an All-NBA player as he received two second-team votes and four third-team votes. This year, if he is the best player on a top seed in the east, he is sure to make an All-NBA team. He just has to make sure his counting stats are good and his team is winning.
This is a lot easier said than done, but we have already talked about how he can make scoring improvements and how he can get better on the defensive side of the ball as well. There are only a few other aspects that could really solidify his spot on an All-NBA team.
One way he could do his best to secure a spot would be to average a double-double. Averaging a double-double in the NBA is something that only 13 NBA players did last year and Tyrese Haliburton and Giannis Antetokounmpo were the only non-centers to do it. It is not an easy task, but it is something that could really separate Banchero from the others.
The good news for Banchero is that with his unique skillset, he has two ways he could average a double-double, and if he can not reach the double-double aspect, a near triple-double sometimes holds the same value. Averaging 20 and 10, or averaging 20, 8, and 7 can create the same respect.
Banchero has averaged 6.9 rebounds per game in both seasons of his career but should be able to raise that number. Getting 10 rebounds a game would make him one of the league’s best, but even just getting to 7 or 8 would raise his chances of making All-NBA.
Banchero also averaged 5.4 assists last year, and it is not crazy to say that number will increase. The Magic lack a traditional point guard. Instead, they have two natural shooting guards in the starting backcourt. While Suggs will take on more responsibilities, Banchero and Wagner will still be the primary creators. The offense mainly runs through Banchero, and he is often the one to take it up or initiate the offense.
This will allow him all the chances to make plays for his teammates and get assists. The addition of an elite catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will hopefully help him get a few more assists. Plus, if Franz Wagner can find his shot, Banchero could easily average around 7 assists per game. If Wagner had shot the ball better this past season, Banchero already would have probably averaged around 6 assists per game.
All the players who made All-NBA teams last season either averaged over 25 points per game or averaged at least 8 in another category. The only exception was Kawhi Leonard who averaged 23.7 points and 6.1 rebounds per game but obviously made the list for his efforts on the defensive end. That means Banchero will have to reach either the 25-point-per-game mark, average at least 8 rebounds or 8 assists a game, or do both.
It may seem like a lot, but getting from 22.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game to 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 or 7 assists is very doable. He already had these amazing stats as just a second-year player and he is only going to get so much better.
Banchero making an All-NBA team would make him the first Magic player to make an All-NBA team since Dwight Howard in the 2011-2012 season. This could be his first of many All-NBA stints on his way to creating a legacy as an all-time Orlando Magic great.