The last handful of draft’s for the Orlando Magic have gifted the organization their future core.
Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero headlined the 2021 and 2022 Drafts and Cole Anthony (2020) and Jalen Suggs (2021) offer a youthful backcourt.
In the latest edition of the NBA Draft, the Magic selected Anthony Black from Arkansas and Jett Howard from Michigan.
Both players figure to get a decent amount of playing time among the established core of young players — along with Markelle Fultz and Wendell Carter. But it is not certain what they can become.
The Orlando Magic have two rookies who seemingly could build into just about anything for the Magic. Their development could also go in a number of different directions.
Black has concerns with his shooting form but his playmaking looked promising in the summer league. Will that be enough for him to make an impact at the NBA level while he figures out his jump shot?
Howard’s shooting was the main reason the Magic took him in the lottery but is there much else at the NBA level for him?
It could be anybody’s best guess how these rookies turn out as a number of things could happen with their careers.
So let’s take a look at the possible outcomes with one worst-case, one realistic, and one dream player comparison for each Magic rookie.
1 worst case, 1 realistic, 1 dream scenario for Orlando Magic rookies
Anthony Black
Worst Case: Michael Carter-Williams
There was a time when everybody thought Michael Carter-Williams was next up.
And almost dropping a quadruple-double in his NBA debut against the LeBron James-led Miami Heat and winning Rookie of the Year presented a strong case.
But since his opening campaign, Carter-Williams regressed every year statistically and simply never developed into the player he could have been. Injuries slowed him down. So too did his struggling jump shot.
By the time the Orlando Magic gave him a lifeline in 2019, Carter-Williams was struggling to latch on everywhere. He was a big factor in the Magic completing their 22-9 run to make the playoffs that year. But then injuries prevented him from growing any further under Steve Clifford.
Carter-Williams proved a solid locker room presence and defender. But he never fulfilled his potential.
He has career averages of 10.2 points per game, 4.3 rebounds per game and 4.3 assists per game. He is shooting 25.6 percent from three and 40.0 percent from the field overall That is the picture of a big guard who could fill up a stat sheet, but made little impact. Certainly not for the accolades for his early career.
This would be the worst-case scenario for Anthony Black.
Like Carter-Williams, Black is an excellent defender and an oversized point guard. But that questionable jumper could be what causes his career to stall and fade into journeyman territory. Especially since Black is not known as a strong playmaker — averaging only 3.9 assists per game at Arkansas, a product of Arkansas’ own issues with poor spacing and shooting.
Realistic: Lonzo Ball
Many people would put a Lonzo Ball comparison in the worst-case scenario category. But focus on the similarities both players have when Ball is healthy.
Taking injuries out of it, Anthony Black might take a similar career path as Lonzo Ball.
Both entered the league with a few established young players. Both needed to fix their shooting form. And both have a feel for the game that shows despite the shooting concerns.
In Summer League, Black averaged 11.0 points, 8.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. Those stat lines were similar to what Ball had when he was out on the court for the Los Angeles Lakers.
In Ball’s rookie year, he averaged 10.2 points, 7.2 assists and 6.9 rebounds per game.
Now, he did shoot a poor 36 percent from the floor, so Magic fans will hope Black does not struggle to that degree. But the similarities seem to be there.
Dream scenario: Josh Giddey
The vision for Anthony Black’s best-case scenario is whatever Josh Giddey ends up being. Last year, Giddey averaged 16.6 points per game, 7.9 rebounds per game and 6.2 assists per game.
Giddey’s shooting percentage also went up by about seven percentage points from his rookie season from 41.9 percent to 48.2 percent. The second-year jump Giddey experienced would be a dream come true for Magic fans and Black.
It would put Orlando in the running for possibly winning a playoff series if Black was able to turn into Giddey.
But it must be noted that while Giddey’s game is similar to Black’s game, Black’s scoring numbers are lower for a slightly different reason.
Black’s shooting form needs work which might mean he needs to start all over in that department.
Giddey did not experience that when he entered the NBA and it might be an indicator that Black will need more than two years to get to Giddey’s level.
Regardless, if the shot is fixed for Black, he will be in the league for a long time.
1 worst case, 1 realistic, 1 dream scenario for Orlando Magic rookies
Jett Howard
Worst Case: Doug McDermott
Jett Howard’s bread and butter is shooting. At Michigan, he shot 7.0 threes per game and was top three in both long-range makes and percentage. That is a skill that is valuable no matter what in the NBA.
Shooting is what has kept Doug McDermott in the NBA. The only difference in the comparison is that Howard just so happens to be a few inches taller.
Further similarities stem from each player’s lack of playmaking ability, less than stellar defense, and questions of his ceiling (all of which were concerns for McDermott when entering the 2014 NBA Draft).
For his career, McDermott averages 9.3 points per game on 41-percent shooting from three and that is something the Magic would take in a heartbeat — something they did with Joe Ingles this past offseason.
But even though Orlando might be content with this outcome, McDermott has become a trade piece for NBA teams all over the league and expectations are higher for a lottery pick.
Howard comes in closer to a stretch-4 than a small forward and in today’s NBA is even more valuable, which might give him more time to develop.
If he does not develop much passed his shooting this is his floor.
Realistic: Saddiq Bey
Saddi Bey was top 20 in three-point field goals attempted and made in his first two seasons in the NBA. But Jett Howard may already be a step above Saddiq Bey in the shooting department.
Projected to be one of the best shooters from the 2023 NBA Draft, Howard shot 40 percent from three in his stint in summer league and is currently shooting 44.4 percent from three in the preseason.
Bey has a career three-point shooting mark of 36 percent from three and 40 percent from the field (a low mark from two-point land that Howard also shares).
If Howard turned into Bey, the Orlando Magic might feel similar to how they would if he was McDermott, where they might hope for more.
But with shooting being such a big need for the Magic, there are not many scenarios where Howard is not at least a rotational player on the current roster.
And the Bey comparison is an upgrade because he has sustained the splits with greater volume, something Howard would look to do if he reaches this level.
Dream Scenario: Kris Middleton
Khris Middleton is an NBA champion. He was arguably the second- or third-best player on that Milwaukee Bucks title team and has three all-star appearances under his belt. Certainly, his absence in 2022 cost the Bucks a shot to defend their title and his injuries slowed down Milwaukee’s title hopes again in 2023.
If the Orlando Magic do not mind Howard turning into Doug McDermott or Saddiq Bey, they would be over the moon about him turning into Khris Middleton.
Sharing all of the similarities from the previous comparisons, Middleton is a tough shot-maker and a better creator than Howard is. That is where the dream part of the scenario enters.
Howard would need to take leaps in his ability to create off the dribble if he were to reach the status of Middleton. But that is also one of the reasons the Magic took him. They liked the idea of Howard’s size and his ability to shoot some off the dribble, even if he is not much of an attacker or creator quite yet. That is what differentiates Howard.
Howard’s shooting ability will always give him a place in the league so he will have time to develop those skills. It was not until Middleton’s sixth year in the NBA that he broke the 20-points-per-game mark.
There could be a late-bloomer situation that occurs with Howard if he were to reach the dream scenario.