We are officially one month from the start of the Orlando Magic’s season.
The long sojourn through the summer — with a FIBA World Cup oasis in the middle — is nearly over. And one of the most anticipated and eagerly awaited seasons for the Magic is about to begin.
Without a doubt, Magic fans see something special on the horizon for this young team. They spent most of last season reaching that critical stage of playing .500 basketball and competing for a postseason spot. They had dug themselves too deep a hole at 5-20 to start the season thanks to injuries to the guard spot and nearly climbed all the way out of it.
The Magic were the last team eliminated from postseason contention in the Eastern Conference last year. And while they never got closer than three games from that final Play-In spot — and the Play-In itself is a rather low bar to clear for any promising team — they really do feel the postseason is a clear-cut goal for next season.
At least the players are willing to say so.
Every season is its own thing. And the Magic will have to find a way to repeat what was good about last season and build upon it.
The Orlando Magic feel like they can build off a strong finish to the season last year. But to get over the hump to the Playoffs will take little improvements in some big areas.
The truth though is if the Magic want to make the postseason they will not have to make any sweeping changes. The roster certainly did not see much turnover only adding Anthony Black, Jett Howard and Joe Ingles to replace Michael Carter-Williams, Admiral Schofield (now on a two-way deal) and Bol Bol.
Orlando is betting that internal growth will help the team make that climb.
Considering how close the team ended up being last year, some added depth and little changes are ultimately what could help the team take that important next step.
If the goal is simply to make the postseason, it will not take much for the Magic to get over the hump. It will be small improvements that get the Magic into the postseason.
What kind of improvements and just how small will they be? It is often going to be and sound like the simplest things. But something that this team was clearly on track to achieve in some measures and can clearly achieve with internal growth and development. Or it could be something the team struggled with as a young team that needs to turn around to take the next steps.
5 little improvements that will determine the Orlando Magic’s season
The Back-to-Back Problem
The answer for the Orlando Magic to make the postseason is a pretty simple one: Win more games.
They won 34 games last season and needed to hit 40 to reach the Play-In Tournament. They are aiming to get six more wins somewhere. And so the easiest place to start in trying to figure out how the Magic reach the postseason is to figure out the areas the team did not get enough wins and figure out how to get more wins.
The place to start then is one area the Magic greatly struggled last year. They were a terrible team in back-to-back situations. It was something that became nearly comical throughout the season.
Orlando finished the season with just one win on the second night of back-to-backs, going 1-12 with zero days of rest. That lone win was the win over the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center in January. A game that saw the Magic blow multiple leads with Damian Lillard missing a pair of 3-pointers at the buzzer to send the game to overtime.
Orlando had a horrid 120.8 defensive rating on the second night of back-to-backs. For a team that is so proud defensively, seeing the team give up more than seven points per 100 possessions than its season average without any days of rest was a true turning point for the season.
Even if the team won three more games — going 4-9 instead of 1-12 — that could have been enough to give them momentum to stay in the game, so to speak.
It is hard for the Magic to do much worse than this, of course. But it is essential the team improve in this area.
Orlando will play a league-high 15 back-to-backs this season. The Magic will have to play a lot of games without any rest. Learning how to manage this will be one of the team’s biggest challenges.
There are three home-home back-to-backs and a few back-to-backs that are clear schedule losses — look at Dec. 1 and 2 for the always infamous Orlando-to-Brooklyn back-to-back or April 9 and 10 for an insane Houston-to-Milwaukee back-to-back.
Nobody is expecting the Orlando Magic to win the majority of their games with zero rest. They just need to be better. And being even a little better at taking some of these games on the second night of back-to-backs will help the team take an important next step in maturity.
5 little improvements that will determine the Orlando Magic’s season
Reducing Turnovers
On the court then, the biggest problem the Orlando Magic face is the same one that every young team seemingly faces. They turn the ball over a lot.
If there is one thing the Magic can do to take a major step forward offensively it is not actually to shoot better from deep, it is to reduce turnovers.
Orlando ranked 27th in turnover rate at 15.1 percent. Even after Dec. 7, the Magic ranked 23rd at 14.4 percent. Turnovers were a major problem for the Magic.
They did not always turn into points on the other end, but it was still a major weakness. Orlando gave up 18.2 points off turnovers per game, 25th in the league, and 17.4 points off turnovers per game (20th in the league) after Dec. 7.
This is one way the Magic’s offense hurts their defense. If Orlando wants to be a top defensive team in the league, it is going to start by valuing possessions better. Beyond that too, the Magic just lose a lot of possessions offensively by giving the ball up.
If Orlando can value possessions better, the team has guys who can take advantage of those extra possessions. Whether that is Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner getting more shot opportunities or giving the Magic the opportunity to move the ball that much more.
There was no one player who seemingly turned the ball over a lot. It was an accumulation of them. Banchero led the team with 2.8 turnovers per game, Markelle Fultz had 2.3 turnovers per game and Franz Wagner had 2.1 per game. So that is something that is literally just a small improvement for the Magic.
This is again a way where Banchero can get more efficient. It is something simple, but it is something that is so important for the team’s success.
Turnovers were a quiet or excused story for the Magic because they were so young. Mistakes were somewhat expected as the team hoped to learn from them and get better. That is what young teams do.
Part of this season is going to be about the team maturing and growing as a group. That means being more attentive with possessions and valuing them more. That will boost the offense plenty and perhaps help the team get out of the bottom 10 or do enough to win more games.
5 little improvements that will determine the Orlando Magic’s season
The 3-Point Math
The Orlando Magic had one of the best defenses in the league for most of the season. After Dec. 7, the team had the sixth best defense in the league. Despite scuttling with that 5-20 start, Orlando still finished 18th in the league in defensive rating.
That is what the Magic want to build their identity on. And this was a good start.
But they have a problem. It is a problem we have talked about plenty.
Despite being decently on defense for much of the season, the Magic have a fatal flaw that came back to haunt them on several occasions throughout the year. Orlando gave up the third-most 3-point attempts per game in the league 37.0 attempts per game. Opponents shot 35.1 percent against them, sixth in the league.
That is not the worst thing in the world. Orlando’s defensive strategy has been to lock down the paint — opponents scored only 47.6 points in the paint per game against the Magic, sixth-fewest in the league.
Still, the team got into trouble for giving up a ton of 3-pointers. Eventually teams are going to get hot and make more of them.
And considering Orlando was a low-volume 3-point shooting team (34.6 attempts per game, 27th in the league) and not a good 3-point shooting team either (34.6 percent, 24th in the league), that just makes the math really hard for the team to compete.
Orlando’s strategy last year was to make up for the team’s poor 3-point shooting through free throws — the team was fifth in the league with a 29.0 percent free throw rate. So the team does not need to take that many more threes or give up slightly fewer 3-pointers.
The Magic shooting and making more threes and giving up slightly fewer threes will go a long way to making the Magic a better offensive and defensive team. Orlando needs some better 3-point luck too.
But there is a path for the Magic to be better from beyond the arc. And it is not going to take much for the team to at least come out even and give themselves a chance.
5 little improvements that will determine the Orlando Magic’s season
Protect the Amway Center
There was one minor goal for the Orlando Magic at the end of last season: To finish with a .500 record at the Amway Center.
Winning at home is always an important goal for young teams. They tend to rack up wins at home and that helps them establish their base for the rest of the season. It is essential.
If not for deciding to sit starters in the last home game of the season, the Magic could have scored a winning home record last year. That was a manufactured goal that we certainly pushed, but the Magic as an organization were not interested in seeking out.
This is a season where the Magic are trying to take that all-important step up to the playoffs. Winning at Amway Center is essential to that goal.
After the 5-20 start, the Magic went 16-12 at the Amway Center. Over a 41-game season that would put them at 23-18. That is not anything crazy to write home about, but it would almost certainly position them to make the postseason. Last year, the worst home record among postseason teams was the Chicago Bulls at 22-19.
Orlando had a +2.1 net rating (115.7/113.6 offensive/defensive rating split) at the Amway Center after Dec. 7. That is at least a good sign of the progress the team made.
Obviously, the Magic can still improve. And they will need to improve.
Like the 2019 season when the Magic used a 5-0 homestand to propel themselves into the Playoffs — and a Southeast Division title — the Magic will need a strong home showing to complete their playoff journey. Orlando has an eight-game homestand at the end of the season. That will be vital to giving the team the final push to the finish line.
Just as it will be important for the Magic to rack up as many home wins as they can through the early part of the season when they are on the road a lot.
Winning at the Amway Center is essential to the Magic’s success this season. One way or another.
5 little improvements that will determine the Orlando Magic’s season
Winning in the Clutch
How better way to make sure the Orlando Magic win close games than to win the 50/50 games.
The reality is the margins to make the postseason are going to be very narrow. The difference between making and missing the postseason could come down to how many clutch games the Magic end up winning.
Orlando took advantage of that last year too. The Magic finished 19-25 in clutch situations, when the game is within five poitns in the final minutes, with a 111.1/120.4 offensive/defensive rating split.
This is another situation where the Magic’s defense seemingly betrayed them. It is an area where the team lost a lot of games because their defensive identity did not follow them to pressure situations, much like with the team’s struggles on the second night of back-to-backs.
There is at least some good news. Orlando was 16-13 in clutch situations after Dec. 7 with an offensive/defensive rating split of 117.4/112.3. That was certainly much improved and something that could help the team deliver wins in the future.
That also means the Magic were a mere 3-12 in clutch games before Dec. 7. That is the reason the Magic missed the playoffs right there. Just as a big reason why the Magic were able to stay in the postseason chase was because they were winning these close games.
The good news then is the Magic are a team that can win these close games. One of their advantage is they have mutliple players they can turn to win these games late — Paolo Banchero is the natural scorer for late in games, Markelle Fultz is an excellent closer and playmaker and Franz Wagner can do it all too.
That will help the Magic close these games out. And, in the end, the Magic will likely look at how they played in these close games to improve their overall record and get them into the postseason.