The Orlando Magic are a team that everyone around the league is trying to get their heads around.
Many NBA observers believe the Magic are set to become one of the teams on the rise. They see the team as a team that could spoil in the Eastern Conference and breakthrough into the postseason. Magic fans are certainly expecting that.
Everyone though is waiting to see the Magic prove themselves before they fully commit. Just look at the number of national TV games the Magic got in their 2023-24 schedule — that would be one, just one game on traditional national TV.
Orlando still has a lot to prove and a lot to show on the court.
The Orlando Magic are still a team with a lot to prove before analysts and observers invest in them. That starts with each individual. And from a fantasy basketball perspective, that can also be tough to figure.
That goes for everyone too. It is not just about the team coming together to win more and climb the standings, this season is also about individual players taking steps forward and developing further. This is about figuring out which players will be part of the bigger picture.
Those are two separate tracks then: Which players will improve individually and which ones will fit into the bigger picture with the team? Those are both things the Magic will be examining and exploring throughout this season.
The team aspect is easy to analyze. But fans engage with the NBA in several ways, including playing fantasy sports.
Trying to project, then, who among this team is going to shine and stand out individually and from a perspective that can help a fantasy team win is much more difficult. What is valuable in fantasy is someone who can score efficiently and wrack up stats across multiple categories.
The Magic’s youth here certainly works against them. Young players are typically more inconsistent. And that inconsistency is likely what works against the Magic both in trying to predict what the team does this year as a whole and what each individual will do.
Nobody will blame you if avoid some of the Magic’s players in your fantasy drafts because of this. Still, just because the Magic are not full of fantasy studs for your season, it does not mean the Magic are not a team that will come together and make a strong run as a unit.
It is all part of the intrigue of this season. And as we get closer to the start of training camp, we will be thinking about how all of these players will perform and grow this season.
With that in mind, it is time to think about some of the bigger fantasy storylines for the upcoming season and which players you perhaps should invest in as you prepare for your fantasy basketball season.
Orlando Magic 2024 Fantasy Basketball Studs and Duds
Stud: Franz Wagner
As much as we love to talk about Paolo Banchero and everything he can be and all of the other issues with this Orlando Magic team, Franz Wagner still seemingly gets lost in the shuffle.
For whatever reason, Wagner becomes something of an afterthought when we talk about the Magic.
The reason? He is just so good and so consistent. Unnaturally consistent for a player of his age and experience level.
Wagner was solid during his rookie year and got better his sophomore year. The only disappointment in his second season was perhaps that he did not improve in the way fans wanted him to, he just got better at the things he was already good at.
He jumped from 15.2 to 18.6 points per game last year, from 2.9 to 3.5 assists per game and from 46.8 percent shooting to 48.5 percent shooting overall. He made 35.4 percent of his threes as a rookie and 36.1 percent in his second year.
These were all things that he got better at and if his time in Germany is to be believed, he is getting better at all these things again. He has been shooting it OK in the starring role for Germany, but he scores his points in bunches and is dishing the ball effectively, especially in transition.
Coming back to the Magic with the players they have and the role the Magic ask him to play, it would not be surprising to see his numbers take another mini-leap.
What is most scary though is that most of the NBA world understands how good Wagner is and how quickly he fills up a box score.
Wagner’s consistency is his greatest value. Wagner had only six games with 10 or fewer points last year and recorded 36 games of 20 points or more and 61 games of 15 points or more.
The Magic — and by extension fantasy owners — know exactly what they will get from Wagner every night. And he is not going to detract much in terms of counting stats. He scores, shoots efficiently and fills up other categories.
That does not even get to his steals, which seem to be increasing this summer in World Cup prep.
The only complaint is that he could rebound a bit more. But not everyone is a five-category player. Wagner is probably the closest the Magic have to one on this team.
Orlando Magic 2024 Fantasy Basketball Studs and Duds
Dud: Paolo Banchero
This is not meant to douse any rain on Paolo Banchero’s parade or his development and growth. This is not meant even to be shade.
It is just the reality that high-usage scorers like Banchero tend to be tough players to pick up on your fantasy teams. Grabbing players who struggle with efficiency means you are essentially giving up a category in those kinds of leagues.
Until Banchero proves he can be an effective and efficient scorer, he will get raw scoring numbers and get to the foul line a ton but will be a drain in other categories. Flipping this narrative is part of the deeper story for Banchero’s upcoming season.
Banchero can put up points, everyone knows that. He averaged 20.0 points per game and 7.4 free throw attempts per game last year. But he is still wildly inefficient, shooting 42.7 percent from the floor and 29.8 percent from beyond the arc. If you take out the 1-for-33 February from beyond the arc, he shot 33.3 percent from three.
Rookies are not expected to be very good or very efficient. They are still learning the league and learning how to play. A big part of the story for Banchero in his second season is to see if he can shoot more efficiently and effectively.
He will get plenty of opportunities too. The Magic are going to put the ball in his hands a lot and see how much he has learned.
The question is just how quickly he can reach the elite levels of other star forwards. It is not impossible for a player to take that kind of leap. But it is usually a fairly gradual process. It is not something that will happen immediately.
If you believe the Magic are going to make a giant step up, it is likely because you believe Banchero will become an All-Star fairly quickly and reach superstar levels. If you believe the team is due for a modest step forward, it is likely because Banchero will still struggle in this area and need some time to develop more.
To be sure, this is not a statement about Banchero’s overall value as a player. This is merely the last year Banchero will act like a young player. And soon he will be the kind of player everyone will want on their fantasy squads.
Orlando Magic 2024 Fantasy Basketball Studs and Duds
Stud: Markelle Fultz
The national narrative on Markelle Fultz is that he is a bust. Or if he is not a bust, he is a low-level starter, someone the Orlando Magic should be looking to upgrade and change.
That latter part might be something the team learns and discovers this season, but it certainly is not the assessment entering the season.
The Magic feel very comfortable with Fultz as the starting point guard to start the year. And there is no reason to believe anyone will challenge him for that spot. He is a dynamic player who can score, shoot effectively and dish the ball.
Fultz is quietly one of the biggest stat-stuffers on the team.
Last year, he averaged 14.0 points per game and 5.9 assists per game on 51.4/31.0/78.3 shooting splits. He added 1.5 steals per game for good measure.
After the All-Star Break, Fultz really stepped his game up. He averaged 15.6 points and 6.0 assists per game on 53.3/32.4/81.1 shooting splits and an additional 1.4 steals per game.
This is all to say, Fultz really filled up a stat sheet. And while he is not a 3-point shooter (although he improved greatly in that category later in the season), he is effective shooting just about everywhere else. He had a 56.1 percent true shooting percentage (which also accounts for his free throw shooting) and 58.5 percent after the All-Star Break.
Fultz may never be “First Overall Pick Markelle Fultz” again. But the talent that made him that player began to peak out at the end of the season.
Injuries have been the biggest storyline in his career so far. Whether that is the knee injury that cut his college season at Washington short or the TOS that killed his time with the Philadelphia 76ers or the ACL injury that haled his progress with the Orlando Magic.
Injuries were again the story last year with Fultz missing the first 20 games of the season with a fractured toe.
When Fultz has had sustained periods of health, he has produced. And the hope is that Fultz has had a fully healthy offseason to get into training camp and build from there.
If that is the case, Fultz could be due for a big season. The kind of season that fills a box score and makes fantasy basketball owners very very happy.
Orlando Magic 2024 Fantasy Basketball Studs and Duds
Dud: Anthony Black
The universal truth about fantasy sports is: Rookies are always bad.
There will always be some temptation to draft a rookie in fantasy sports, and it is usually a bad idea (unless it is a keeper league, then that becomes an investment).
Even Paolo Banchero was bad during his rookie year. He was good with a historic season for a rookie. But everyone recognized he still had a long way to go with his efficiency to reach his full potential. Banchero had a great season, but not a strong fantasy season.
This is typically how things go with rookie players. They might be good in one category — Banchero was a scorer with raw point totals — but they will likely be poor in all of the others as they learn the league. It takes them a while to be at their absolute best. Even for their rookie seasons.
So, there should be a fair amount of caution with drafting any rookie.
Anthony Black projects to be a player who can make an impact in his rookie year. It is just not necessarily going to be in a way that stands out on the stat sheet all the time.
Black will get his share of assists, he is certainly going to rebound really well and he is going to defend so there are the chance for him to pick up his share of steals.
But Black will struggle as a shooter. That was his big weakness coming into the draft and it still looks like a weakness based off his Summer League play.
It would not be surprising if his rookie season is, at least statistically, fairly underwhelming. That is part of the growing and learning process for a young player.
Even Jett Howard is probably not going to be a great fantasy investment in his rookie year. He can shoot. But even great shooters struggle with the NBA line in their first year. And so rookies are just generally the players you avoid in your fantasy leagues.
Orlando Magic 2024 Fantasy Basketball Studs and Duds
Stud: Jonathan Isaac
Everything in the following 300-plus words has to have the following warning: If he is healthy.
But if Jonathan Isaac is healthy, there may not be a more valuable fantasy basketball player for later in the draft or your utility slots than Jonathan Isaac. Like his common player comparison of Andrei Kirilenko, Jonathan Isaac is simply a more valuable fantasy player than he might be an actual player.
Again, when he plays.
The stats bear this out as Isaac just filled up the stat sheet pretty quickly even in his limited minutes over 11 games.
Isaac averaged only 5.0 points per game, 4.0 rebounds per game and 1.7 stocks per game (steals and blocks combined), and he had shooting splits of 41.5/40.0/55.6. This was all in just 11.3 minutes per game. His minutes were starting to ramp up before his season-ending injury forced him back to the sidelines.
Take these numbers per 36 minutes (always fraught with peril) and he posted 16.0 points per 36 minutes, 12.8 rebounds per 36 minutes and 5.3 stocks per 36 minutes.
That is to say, Isaac played for precious few minutes but was very productive in them going across several different stat categories. And these were largely with restrictions still on what the team wanted him to do. And he did that across multiple stat categories.
The Magic did not meaningfully upgrade their backup forward position. They will be rotating between the quartet of Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Joe Ingles and Jonathan Isaac. All indications are that he is healthy and will be ready to go for training camp. That will be a huge boost for him.
Orlando’s defense was astounding in Isaac’s limited minutes. If he gets those restrictions taken off him and is able to play consistently this season, then Isaac is going to produce and make some fantasy basketball owners very happy.
Provided they are willing to take the risk. Because, again, all of this is if Isaac is healthy.