Orlando Magic fans are excited for Paolo Banchero’s second season, to say the least.
He averaged 20.0 points per game and was a near-unanimous rookie of the year. His rookie season was truly historic as his stats put him in the same class as several Hall of Fame players.
On top of all of this, Banchero earned a spot on the U.S. National Team. He worked out with Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant at various times this offseason. He is clearly on the path toward stardom. The rest of the league sees him on a path toward stardom.
The question is how does he get there? And how quickly can he get there?
Paolo Banchero had a stellar rookie season for the Orlando Magic. But the young forward can still get a whole lot better. There are a lot of ways he will improve in his second season.
That will be the story of his second season. There are a lot of areas for Banchero to improve and clean up. And, like his team, a lot of work to assure his rise.
This season for the Orlando Magic is about those small improvements. It is about players improving individually and bringing that improvement to the bigger group and seeing how far that can take this team and this group.
As good as Banchero was in his rookie year, he can get a lot better. A whole lot better.
His rookie season should be the worst season in his career if everything goes right. He will have to learn to be more efficient with his scoring, smarter with his passing and attacking on defense and better on the defensive end.
There are going to be a lot of ups and downs on this journey. But everyone is excited to see what Banchero can become.
Heading into year two, Banchero is poised to build off of his rookie season and make his way into NBA stardom. He can do so with some improvements in certain aspects of his game.
3 ways Paolo Banchero will improve in 2024
1. Three-Point Shooting
One of the biggest and most notorious headlines about Paolo Banchero’s rookie season was his abysmal three-point shooting in February. During that time, he shot three percent from beyond the arc — 1 for 33 shooting overall.
Banchero shot 29.8 percent overall from beyond the arc for the season. Take out that 1-for-33 shooting performance in February and he shot 33.3 percent overall. Not bad, but certainly still leaving room for improvement.
This was generally a common theme throughout the year for last season’s rookie of the year. Grant it, the shooting was higher than three percent, but he only shot better than 35 percent from three during April. Every other month, he shot worse than 35 percent from beyond the arc.
Another thing to note is that Banchero had one three-pointer every 29 minutes on average. He took a lot of three-point shots (280) and was second on the team in total attempts. He also made on average just one long-range jumper per game leaving both consistency and ability out there on the floor.
There are areas where Banchero can certainly improve. Last season, according to NBA.com’s tracking stats, Banchero made only 33.8 percent of his 154 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season. He certainly can improve as a shooter.
This is part of the bigger story of Banchero’s upcoming season — his desire to be efficient. The biggest criticism of his Rookie of the Year campaign was this inefficiency. That is not typically what future stars look like in their rookie years, however.
For instance, Kevin Durant shot only 42.7 percent from the floor and 29.8 percent from three in averaging 20.3 points per game during his rookie season. In his second season, Durant averaged 25.3 points per game on 47.6 percent shooting overall and 42.2 percent from three.
It is impossible to expect Banchero to be Durant. But it merely displays how much more efficient players can get after even just one year in the NBA.
Orlando is expecting Banchero to take a step up in efficiency this year. And a big part of that will be the improvement in his 3-point shot.
If Banchero can develop a good-looking three-pointer from both a consistency and accuracy standpoint, his game on the offensive end will evolve immensely.
3 ways Paolo Banchero will improve in 2024
2. Free-Throw Shooting
Although Paolo Banchero was not a horrific free-throw shooter, he certainly can take advantage of more of those opportunities he gets at the stripe.
Banchero got to the free-throw line more than any other player in Orlando and put himself in the elite class of free throw getters in Magic history with 7.4 attempts per game. It had become a recognizable part of his game throughout the entire season. The next closest Magic player in total attempts was Franz Wagner with 322 compared to Banchero’s 534.
But he ended the season with a 72.3 free throw percentage on the season. The all-time average for NBA power forwards from the line is 0.1 percent greater than that. So, by all means, Banchero has not been poor from the line but it could be better in many ways.
He never got to 80 percent from the free-throw line in any month throughout the season. He finished with below a 75 percent average in the majority of the months during the season.
This is to say that Banchero is elite at getting to the line. And this is typically not something that dissipates. A player who is good at getting to the foul line will almost always get to the foul line throughout the prime of his career.
This is going to be a central part of Banchero’s offensive identity throughout his career. And one little improvement can go a long way.
For instance, say Banchero improved his free throw percentage from 73.8 percent to even 75.0 percent at his current rate. Even just using last year’s stats that would mean making six or seven more free throws. That is certainly achievable for him. Expand that out and those free throws could flip games in the Magic’s favor.
In a postseason chase that will have very tight margins, converting at the foul line at a high rate and making teams regret fouling you is a big part of how Banchero can improve dramatically even off his stellar rookie season.
If Banchero can get some reps at the stripe throughout the offseason to improve the makes he has next season. It can really up his game quite a bit. He is top 15 in the entire league with getting to the line on total attempts, he just needs to find ways to fix his shot in that situation.
3 ways Paolo Banchero will improve in 2024
3. Defense
At 6-foot-10 and weighing 250 pounds, Paolo Banchero has the physical attributes to be impactful on the defensive end of the floor.
A lot of the focus has been on his offense, but his defense certainly could improve. You expect rookies to be poor defensively, but Banchero clearly still has a ways to go to be an impactful defender and eventually a two-way player.
He averaged less than both one steal and one block per game in 2023. His steal and block percentage were down to 0.2 and 0.3 percent respectively. These numbers could be higher if he wants to contribute more toward Orlando’s defensive efforts.
The Magic could use it as they ranked in the bottom half of the league on team defensive rating (18th). They were in the middle of the road in the NBA in other defensive stat categories like defensive rebounding percentage, and opponents’ second-chance points.
Orlando did build itself defensively after the 5-20 start, finishing eighth in the league in defensive rating although there was a marginal improvement from their season average (113.1 points allowed per 100 possessions for the season compared to 113.0 after Dec. 7).
The Magic struggled while Banchero was on the floor though. For the season, the Magic had a 115.3 defensive rating with Paolo Banchero on the floor — only Gary Harris had a worse season-long mark among rotation players.
Even after Dec. 7 and the 5-20 start, the Magic had a 115.1 defensive rating with Banchero on the floor. That was the worst mark on the team among starters.
He might have had an offensive surge later in the season, but his defense slipped even as the team itself played better overall.
When it comes to points given up by opponents, there are certain extents to which Banchero struggles. Opponents shot 65.9 percent at the rim on 4.0 attempts per game against Banchero according to data from Second Spectrum — although opponents shot 3.10 percentage points worse at the rim than expected against him according to Basketball-Index.
Banchero does not rate as a good defender with a -0.19 on-ball perimeter defense rating, 1.35 deflections per 75 possessions and a +0.03 percent rim deterrence rating (meaning players are not afraid to attack the rim when he is there) according to Basketball Index.
And that does not even get into his rebounding.
Rookies always struggle with defense. And part of Banchero’s pre-Draft concerns centered on his defense. He has shown himself plenty capable of making defensive plays — just as Puerto Rico from Monday — but this is an area where he can be more attentive and more focused.
If Banchero can begin to realize the potential he has with his size when it comes to being more impactful defensively. It will really up his game and create more opportunities for him within the game.
In year two, the reigning rookie of the year is trying to accomplish bigger things. This may include an All-Star appearance.
To get there, fine-tuning the shooting from the free throw line as well as from beyond the arc will be key. He also could find a base defensively to help set him up for a lot more opportunities on the offensive end.