There is a mere 70 days until the start of the Orlando Magic’s training camp.
Not that anybody is counting.
With Summer League in the rearview mirror and all the activities for the offseason essentially over, that is all anyone has to look forward to. And the reality of the upcoming season only seems to make that wait longer.
This is a season a lot of Magic fans are very clearly looking forward to. It is a season that seems like it could deliver on the first of a long playoff run. And that is not a hope the team has had for much of the last decade. This feels like something big is starting for the Magic.
Of course, they have to take it one step at a time. There is no putting the cart before the horse.
The Orlando Magic are looking ahead to a big season with the potential for a lot of growth. There are still a lot of choices to make as the team prepares for the 2024 season.
For as much excitement as seems to be building for the 2024 season, there is still work to do. And there are still a lot of questions to ask about this team.
Orlando had a strong finish to the season. But the team still has to put together an 82-game season. That is at the center of what the team’s goals are for this season.
The Magic kept much of the same roster — only adding their two rookies in Anthony Black and Jett Howard and veteran forward Joe Ingles — together. This is a major chance for this team to prove itself. And, perhaps more importantly, prove which players the team should truly build around and develop and which ones the team should move beyond.
This is a season for development once again. This is a season to grow and “level up” into a postseason team. One that can make several postseasons in a row. This is a season to figure out what the Magic need to reach that goal and continue to “level up” as they climb the Eastern Conference standings.
And that leaves a lot of questions. There will be a lot of time to ponder some of these questions as the year goes on. There are indeed some immediate questions the Magic have to answer.
We have a lot of idle time to think about these things right now. And these debates and choices may very well define the team’s season and its future.
5 decisions the Orlando Magic face entering the 2024 season
The Point Guard Debate
The Orlando Magic have had a lot of good times with cap room that they just keep trying to spin forward. This has disappointed some Magic fans who saw the cap space as an avenue or excuse to spend.
That is not quite how the NBA works anymore. The big-name players know they can dictate where they go while still under contract and getting the most money they can via extensions and Bird Rights.
Orlando has simply spent the last few summers overspending on some short-term contracts (hello, Joe Ingles’ $11 million contract) and spun the flexibility over to the next season in case they need it for trades or that free agent who wriggles free.
The Magic will still have a fair amount of space and tons of flexibility. But that time is slowly coming to an end. And next summer will be the first summer they will have to make some big financial decisions and commitments — and then they will have successive summers of locking in their core players on big contracts.
The focus before training camp — or before the Oct. 30 deadline — is whether the Magic will take care of their two young point guards. And by extension, whether the Magic will tie up their books a little bit.
Both Fultz and Anthony have likely earned consideration for a new contract and no one would be surprised if the team just takes care of them. That has been the M.O. for Jeff Weltman. He re-signs his own players usually on terms that still get the player paid but keep the Magic fairly flexible.
Fultz averaged 14.0 points per game and 5.7 assists per game and Anthony averaged 13.0 points per game (largely off the bench) with 4.8 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game. Both played significantly better after the All-Star Break once the team was healthier.
They both will play key roles for the team this upcoming season. But the drafting of Anthony Black has raised plenty of questions — a question we will get to a bit later.
Can the Magic really invest significant money — probably somewhere near $40 million per year for both — when they are this crowded at point guard?
This could be the first critical financial decision of this rebuild with Weltman. So far everything has been easy. The team was playing with funny money. But Orlando has to start planning for Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero to come off their rookie contracts and at least consider how they want to line up their contracts.
That might be the reason why the Magic should just take care of both. Orlando is going to need big salaries to move for future trades. The team just does not want to get stuck with a bunch of contracts it cannot move and a team with no way to raise its ceiling. Especially during this critical incubator phase with these young players.
There is a lot to consider. And that does not even get into whether Fultz and Anthony feel they can bet on themselves having great seasons for an up-and-coming Magic team and increase their value.
The Magic are not likely to alienate anybody with these negotiations. That is not how Weltman operates. But at some point, Weltman might have to be a bit ruthless and make some critical decisions.
What the Magic do here might be the first.
5 decisions the Orlando Magic face entering the 2024 season
Who starts at shooting guard?
Perhaps the most pressing question for the Orlando Magic entering this offseason is how do they round out their starting lineup. Everyone acknowledges that four spots are locked in — Markelle Fultz, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter.
What do the Magic do at shooting guard?
The simple answer is Gary Harris. He has earned his spot and there are not a lot of great reasons to upset the apple cart and move away from the consistency the Magic had with their starting lineup from December until the end of the season.
The starting lineup with Harris at guard posted a net rating of +1.4 points per 100 possessions with a 113.0/111.6 offensive/defensive rating split in a team-high 570 minutes. Considering the Magic’s record, that was ultimately a positive for the team.
Harris spreads the floor as a shooter, something the Magic need desperately.
But there is intrigue here. Suggs showed significant improvement once he put the injuries behind him including shooting 36.0 percent from three after the All-Star Break.
His real impact obviously came on defense. And the numbers plainly show this. The team had a 111.0 defensive rating with Suggs on the floor, compared to 113.7 for the season. After Dec. 7 (when the Magic’s season actually started), the Magic had a 108.9 defensive rating with Suggs on the floor compared to 113.0 overall for the team.
Put Suggs in the starting lineup and the results at least on paper are astounding.
Orlando had a +11.3 net rating with a 113.7/102.4 offensive/defensive split in 58 minutes across 15 games.
It is a small sample size, but the defense is astounding and the Magic did not appear to lose much defensively.
There is just a current the Magic need to play their young former first-round pick. And Suggs certainly has a pathway and the ability to go into the starting lineup and make an impact.
There is at least an open competition or an openness to debate about the position. Harris should be in there in pencil, right now he is more reliable and more proven for a young team. But if Suggs has improved his shot, his overall talent and potential will be too much to pass up.
5 decisions the Orlando Magic face entering the 2024 season
Where do the rookies fit in?
Orlando Magic president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman has made it clear the Magic are in a new phase of their rebuild. Rookies are not going to get gifted minutes for the sake of development, everything is going to be earned throughout the roster.
While we can certainly debate the Magic’s depth some, this team does feel a bit more loaded with talent than previous iterations. Summer League was spent debating two-way contracts, but the reality is the Magic are not going to lean on two-way contracts as much this year. This team is better covered for injuries than it was last season. A 5-20 start should not happen.
But there is that other saying that Weltman likes to say: When the team drafts someone, they want to give them a path to play and a path for their success.
Orlando had two first-round picks and used them both. So that would go to thinking the Magic are invested in their future. It may not necessarily be for this season. But at some point, the Magic will want to see them play.
So how do they fit into this roster? Because this roster is pretty full. Just look at a potential depth chart without the rookies:
PG: Markelle Fultz/Cole Anthony
SG: Gary Harris/Jalen Suggs (more on this position later)
SF: Franz Wagner/Joe Ingles
PF: Paolo Banchero/Jonathan Isaac/Chuma Okeke
C: Wendell Carter/Moe Wagner/Goga Bitadze
Outside of power forward, the Magic seemingly feel confident and comfortable with what they are developing and growing at each position.
If anything Anthony Black’s presence muddies up the guard depth some, forcing himself or one of the players to play more at the 3. Similarly, Jett Howard could easily slot in at forward and slide Joe Ingles to play some bigger forward. But the Magic added Ingles on an $11-million per year contract.
All three of these players are new to the team and assumedly should get some playing time.
This is all to say, the Magic are going to have to force-fit the rookies into the rotation a bit as the dust settles. And indeed everyone is going to have to earn their spot on the roster. And if all the players on the team get better as we expect, that is only going to get tougher.
Things will happen during the course of the season. There will be injuries and so having depth in talent with Black and Howard is going to help fill those gaps. There is a lot more confidence the team will not suffer through the injuries and lack of depth that led to the 5-20 start to last season.
But there is likely going to be some time this season where one, if not both, of Black or Howard do not play or are part of the rotation.
That is why it feels like a trade is imminent for this Magic team to consolidate some talent and clear up pathways to play. That might be a question for the offseason after the team has a season of data and understanding of the players they have.
5 decisions the Orlando Magic face entering the 2024 season
Going Small or Going Big
The Orlando Magic can be something of a contradiction.
The joke around Magic fans and around the league is the Magic are obsessed with length. They draft these long-limbed players with positional and skill versatility and seemingly do not care about many other skills.
The Magic’s foundational thesis and what makes their team unique is how they use 6-foot-10 forwards as primary playmakers. There just are not many teams with the ability to defend or handle what Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner can potentially do.
The Magic’s biggest goal is to foster growth with those players and figure out how to maximize those players. And that will undoubtedly lead to some experimenting.
But this is the contradiction. The Magic are a long team, but they are not necessarily a big team.
Wendell Carter is a solid center with good size, but he is not a shot-blocking or rim-protecting behemoth. Behind him are Goga Bitadze and Moe Wagner, two solid centers but with plenty of questions as backup big men.
Orlando was in the top 10 in rebound rate grabbing 73.0 percent of defensive rebounds. But it still never felt like this was a dominant defensive rebounding team. The Magic defended the paint well, but struggled to defend the 3-point line and still gave up a ton of second-chance points (15th most in the league).
The Magic are a team that has length but tends to play small. Most everyone suspects Orlando will at least experiment some with three forward lineups featuring Jonathan Isaac with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Or with Joe Ingles or Jett Howard playing the 4 (remember how small the Summer League team was, that felt like a test run for some ideas the Magic might have).
Then again, the Magic could go big, pairing Wendell Carter or one of the backup bigs with the three forwards and sliding Franz Wagner to the 2 at times. Or even playing Anthony Black at point guard with a jumbo lineup of skilled playmakers and defenders.
Orlando has a lot of flexibility with its lineups to mix and match and find the best five at any given moment. Positionless basketball may not actually exist, but the Magic are one of the few teams that can test the notion and flip roles and ideas on their head with the skill they have at their size.
The question then is what are the limits of this notion?
The team knows Carter tends to miss time with injuries but did not reinvest at center in a significant way. The Magic’s draft capital went to the backcourt and free agency capital went to re-signing Moe Wagner and adding a veteran in Joe Ingles.
Are the Magic going to go big or go small? They definitely could do both. And the team is just as likely to try to test what both sides of that coin look like.
5 decisions the Orlando Magic face entering the 2024 season
Who is Playoff ready?
The Orlando Magic may not say anything publicly about their goals and what they expect from this team, but they know the direction they want to go. And this season is as much about figuring out what the team has as much as it is about preparing for that first postseason berth.
Coach Jamahl Mosley said even last year that he was showing playoff clips and trying to prepare his team for the postseason. Everyone remembers him taking a few Orlando Magic players to the Dallas Mavericks’ run to the Western Conference Finals to feel that intensity.
Magic players are openly talking about the postseason and their desire to play in it.
That will be the storyline that will be the undercurrent throughout the season. The Magic will be trying to make the playoffs this season, no matter what they say or do not say. And so part of this season is figuring out whether the team has enough. Especially with some of the contract decisions on the horizon for this team.
Will Markelle Fultz step up his game and his shooting to be the clear answer at point guard? Will Cole Anthony be the solid sixth man and bench scorer the Magic need? Is Wendell Carter going to stand up and be the defensive presence and offensive fulcrum that can anchor a team to the playoffs?
Every player has a question about how they stand up to winning pressure. That is something this team has never experienced. I think the Magic are going to try to relieve this pressure as much as they can — thus the directive to play “better basketball” as opposed to “make the playoffs” — but that pressure is very much there.
These are questions that will not get answered at the start of the season but answered throughout. It is going to be the defining question and story for the season.