The NBA season is still two months away from getting started with training camps, but already there is a clear sense of excitement in Orlando for what is coming up.
The Orlando Magic had a strong finish to the season and seemed like they took some steps forward as a team. The arrival of Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero has already helped raise expectations for the team and the group of young players who seemed to take clear steps forward have only added to the anticipation.
After a decade following the Dwight Howard trade without much direction or even hopes for a prolonged playoff run, it really does feel like the Magic are on the precipice of something sustainable.
While management will not say it outright — and the overall goal for the team is likely more focused on growing and developing to the next level — the postseason seems like the next logical step considering the Magic were the last team eliminated from postseason contention in the Eastern Conference last year.
The Orlando Magic seem poised to make the step up to the postseason this coming season. But getting there will not be easy. There are a lot of teams who can believe and fight for those precious few spots.
If the goal is to level up, there is only one place the team can go. This team should enter the 2024 season with the expectation that it will be playing postseason basketball. Or at least playing at such a level for the course of an 82-game season — the team has better depth if injuries hit again.
Of course, the rest of the conference is not going to lay down.
And so while there is one side of the equation of the Magic getting better to improve on their 34-win season from last year and get into the postseason picture, there is another side of the equation.
For the Magic to break their way into the top eight or top 10, someone has to fall out of that group. That is where the competition for the postseason is going to lie.
The Eastern Conference is very much in a state of flux. The Magic are on the rise at a time when the teams at the top are going through some potentially major changes and teams in the middle have a lot of questions.
There are a few teams poised to climb the rankings and the Magic are certainly one of them.
They will have their fair share of competition in the middle of the conference though. If we grant the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers as the favorites and title contenders and give the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks the respect as more veteran playoff holdovers, there are still four spots to fight over in the postseason.
So who is the chief competition? And what to make of their offseasons? That is what the Magic are going to have to play again as they make improvements themselves.
5 teams the Orlando Magic will be fighting for a playoff spot
Indiana Pacers
Last Year: 35-47, 11th East
Key Additions: Bruce Brown, Jarace Walker, Obi Toppin
Key Losses: Chris Duarte, George Hill
There are two teams that are undeniably on the rise in the Eastern Conference — the Orlando Magic and the Indiana Pacers.
Every other team is either already pretty well established, retooling or figuring out if their cores are good enough for the long run. Both the Magic and the Pacers are the only young teams who seem destined to break into the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
And it will happen sooner than later.
The Pacers might be a slight bit ahead developmentally and they played their offseason with the aggression that maybe Magic fans wanted to see Jeff Weltman play his team with.
Some of that just might have to do with how their season went.
Where Orlando started behind the 8-ball with a 5-20 start, Indiana raced (pun intended) out of the gates behind an All-Star performance from Tyrese Haliburton. He averaged 20.7 points and 10.4 assists per game last season.
The Pacers started 23-18 at the midpoint of the season. But that is when Haliburton suffered an injury and Indiana lost 11 of its next 12 games and suddenly faced an uphill climb to the end of the 2023 season. Indiana never recovered.
A sophomore Bennedict Mathurin, championship experience from Bruce Brown and some interior depth with the drafting of Jarace Walker and the trade for Obi Toppin gives the Pacers some better depth and the ability to withstand that. You forget of the veterans they have too with Buddy Hield and Myles Turner providing steady play for the team.
The Pacers just have more offensive firepower and that is probably what has them in a space to make the leap into the postseason next year. Their defense still needs to get cleaned up.
And this could be the weakness in their case: The Pacers won a lot of close games last year (25-23 in clutch situations). But they still ranked 21st in offensive rating (113.8 points per 100 possessions) and 26th in defensive rating (117.1 points allowed per 100 possessions). That is typically the profile of a team playing for ping pong balls at the end of the season and not a postseason berth.
The Magic and Pacers are probably going to get compared to each other a lot. Even though Indiana is a more veteran team. These are two franchises who are going to be the next teams to break into that top four — along with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Orlando went 1-3 against Indiana last year, losing on a missed buzzer-beater from Franz Wagner early in the year and with a blowout win after the All-Star Break in Orlando.
And seeing that we are Magic historians, it would be great to renew that rivalry once again.
5 teams the Orlando Magic will be fighting for a playoff spot
Chicago Bulls
Last Year: 40-42, 10th East
Key Additions: Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig
Key Losses: Lonzo Ball (out for the year), Patrick Beverley
The Chicago Bulls have three potential All-Stars in DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. That is enough to keep them competitive in the Eastern Conference. Count them out of a playoff spot at your own risk.
But that should not be enough for a team like this with the kind of star power they have invested in. For whatever reason, this group just has not clicked effectively. Maybe it is because they could not afford to be down such a key player in Lonzo Ball — set to miss his second full season, making that strong start to his time in Chicago feel like a distant memory.
Last year was undoubtedly a disappointing season. Billy Donovan has carved out a team that is strong defensively — fifth in defensive rating at 111.5 points allowed per 100 possessions. That should not change with the players they ended up adding.
But it is all window dressing because it does not get to the main reasons why the Bulls have disappointed. Their stars just do not seem to mix well together. And they do not have enough shooting to make their system really work.
Despite the individual brilliance and potential of DeRozan, LaVine and Vucevic, they were only slightly better than the Magic offensively at 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Is this team going to be measurably better?
The thing with Bulls is they are a team that seems like they have reached their ceiling. It is hard to imagine them doing more than the Play-In ringer. Their support players just are not good enough and their stars are starting to fade a bit. Chicago had no choice but to keep them.
Orlando has certainly benefited from this Chicago team — it was the trade of Nikola Vucevic to Chicago that kickstarted Orlando’s own rebuild and its bright future including the pick that selected Franz Wagner.
At some point, the Magic are going to pass the Bulls — the Magic won the season series last year 2-1 including the buzzer-beating win from Jalen Suggs in November — it might very well be this year with the Magic’s improved depth and potential for growth among their young star players.
5 teams the Orlando Magic will be fighting for a playoff spot
Atlanta Hawks
Last Year: 41-41, 8th East
Key Additions: Kobe Bufkin
Key Losses: John Collins
It was a fairly quiet offseason for the Atlanta Hawks after making the very loud move to acquire Dejounte Murray last summer and suffering through a disappointing season in 2023. Still, it is hard to map out what this Hawks team’s future looks like.
They just re-upped Murray on a huge four-year, $120-million contract. So Atlanta is committed to its two-guard lineup of Trae Young and DeJounte Murray for the foreseeable future (although there were some rumors the Hawks might entertain Young trade talks at various points this season).
The guard pairing worked to an extent. Both were stellar at passing and getting the ball moving and consistently put pressure on the defense.
Like everything else, two stars in this league are enough to get you in playoff contention. Orlando is banking on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to be its solid stars this year. It is a team’s depth that really makes you a contender or not — for the Magic that should come in the form of Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter, Cole Anthony, etc.
Depth is the Magic’s biggest strength among a lot of the teams in this group. There is a lot of youth on this team. But there is certainly a belief that youth can come together in a meaningful way.
That is not the strength for the Hawks. They traded away a starter in John Collins in essentially a salary dump, acquiring Rudy Gay and a second-round pick.
Atlanta may be fully embracing a spread offense with Saddiq Bey filling in at power forward to start the year. The Hawks could also be looking to move Clint Capela to give Onyeka Okongwu more minutes. That would be a smart move.
That inevitably means the Hawks might be due for a soft reset this season. They began wiping away some of the older pieces of their previous generation so they could rebuild anew around their two guards. That is a promising idea, but it is still one in progress.
That makes this something of an incomplete team.
They lack consistent shooting — although De’Andre Hunter remains an interesting piece and Saddiq Bey is probably due a bounce-back season — and that means the Hawks are hoping to tread water this year and use their star power to win them that single game int he Play-In Tournament as they did last year in Miami to earn the 7-seed.
The Magic will have to climb over the Hawks in the division and that is a fair goal. Orlando was competitive with Atlanta last year, although the team won just one of the four matchups — that one featured a 50-point quarter in a December win.
This is the team the Magic should be as focused as any other to vanquish and overcome in the standings as that would be a sure sign the Magic are in postseason contention.
5 teams the Orlando Magic will be fighting for a playoff spot
Toronto Raptors
Last Year: 41-41, 9th East
Key Additions: Adrian Griffin (coach), Dennis Schroder, Gradey Dick
Key Losses: Fred VanVleet, Nick Nurse (coach)
In some respects, the Toronto Raptors feel like the slow death of a star. They won their championship in 2019 and will not regret any of the moves they made to ensure they stayed in title contention.
Slowly but surely though, the pieces of that title team have broken apart. They may have expected Kawhi Leonard to leave their orbit fairly quickly. But their plan to reload quickly has not quite come together.
Pascal Siakam is a very good player but never took over the full reigns as the star player to build around. OG Anunoby has emerged as a promising young player. Gary Trent Jr. was a solid acquisition and a good shooter. Fred VanVleet emerged as an All-Star and sharpshooter. Scottie Barnes turned out to be a solid draft pick, although he had a somewhat disappointing second season (still good, but not completely building on the promise of his Rookie of the Year campaign).
The Raptors had all the ingredients to remain a strong team and they remained a consistent playoff presence. But they never returned to title contention. And eventually, they felt like a team spinning its wheels.
And now the wheels are starting to fall off.
Toronto opted to be buyers at the trade deadline even with the risk of losing VanVleet. All that buying got the Raptors the 9-seed in the East and a Play-In Tournament loss to the Chicago Bulls.
VanVleet peeled off this offseason to the Houston Rockets, giving the Toronto Raptors nothing in return. Now trade rumors are ramping up involving both Anunoby and Siakam. Coach Nick Nurse is gone, resurfacing with the Philadelphia 76ers.
So everything is new . . . except a roster that seems ready to hit reset once again.
Until that happens though, you have to consider Toronto a dangerous team. The Raptors are experienced enough and talented enough to remain a postseason team. But it feels like the end is near for Toronto.
For the Magic, they should feel like they can surpass this team and take their spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The Magic and Raptors split the season series — with each winning twice on their own homecourt. Orlando should already feel competitive with a team like Toronto. And there is no reason to believe the Raptors’ level is not a floor for the young Magic to reach this year.
5 teams the Orlando Magic will be fighting for a playoff spot
Brooklyn Nets
Last Year: 45-37, 6th East
Key Additions: Lonnie Walker IV, Dariq Whitehead, Dennis Smith Jr.
Key Losses: Seth Curry, Patty Mills, Yuta Watanabe
The Brooklyn Nets did their heavy lifting at the trade deadline when they acquired Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson from the Phoenix Suns for Kevin Durant. That officially broke up their big three and helped them jumpstart their rebuild — Johnson signed a fresh four-year deal this offseason and Brooklyn has rebuffed efforts to get Bridges free from them.
That is their team for now. But it is a team that still needs some work.
Brooklyn finished sixth in the Eastern Conference but struggled mightily after the trade.
The Nets were just 13-15 after the trade with a net rating of -1.1 net rating (113.1/114.2 offensive/defensive rating). That was virtually the same as the Magic during that same time period (12-15). That of course included the Magic sitting players out their final three games including a matchup in Brooklyn.
It feels like the Nets are a team that is poised for a reset. Even with some interesting young players with Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson joined by Nicholas Claxton and Spencer Dinwiddie as solid players on the team.
When healthy, the Nets are still very capable of making a postseason run. But this could be a team that gets knocked off-kilter.
If there is a “safe” bet for a team that is about to lose its playoff position, it is the Nets. They took a step back last season after their trade deadline moves and they will be seeking to re-establish their identity.
Magic fans may roll their eyes at this notion, but Jacque Vaughn has proven himself capable of getting his teams to play better than their talent or circumstance might suggest (that decidedly did not happen during those early rebuild years in Orlando). So the Nets are not completely out of the picture.
But it is hard to see them standing tough. Their late-season loss in Orlando is a good example of why.
Bridges had 44 points in that game and looked brilliant individually. But the Magic still won the game confidently 119-106 in a game that was never really competitive even with Bridges playing well.
That might be part of Brooklyn’s story this season. And a reason why the team is probably heading down the standings from their perch at sixth.