The confetti is still likely getting swept off the streets of downtown Denver. The Denver Nuggets’ championship is now in the rearview mirror. The NBA Draft and the offseason is ahead.
For the Orlando Magic, it is an offseason of promise.
The team is coming off a strong season where the group improved its win total by 12 games. The Magic were the last team eliminated from postseason contention in the Eastern Conference with just three games remaining. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are anchoring a young group that seems poised for growth.
The franchise may not be willing to set expectations beyond the call to “level up” once more. But Banchero has put next year’s terms in the plainest terms: It’s playoffs or bust.
The Orlando Magic are a team that is poised to be on the rise and make the postseason next year. But they will have to take a spot from someone and fend off other contenders eager to rise too.
The Magic front office may not quite act with that kind of desperation as they assemble the 2024 team — they are still heavily invested in the young group they have built already and are going to give them a chance to keep growing. But the stakes are pretty clear.
After all, when you are the last team eliminated from postseason contention, what is the next level?
The Magic should bank and bet on internal improvement to help them get over that line. Players could take a sizable leap and lift the team into the postseason very easily.
But there are still 10 spots in the postseason every year. And those 10 teams are not going to let go of those spots so easily. Someone has to lose a spot in order for a team like the Magic to gain a spot. More importantly, the Magic are not the only team on the rise in the Eastern Conference.
That is what also should make this offseason urgent for the Magic. There are going to be a lot of teams eager to make the same leap as the Magic and precious few spots for them to leap into.
There just are not a lot of teams in the playoff picture who are ready to give up their spot.
The Magic are absolutely a team on the rise. And this list is not here to ignore the Magic’s rise.
This list is also not going to consider teams on the way down out of the postseason picture.
The Washington Wizards are seemingly preparing to trade Bradley Beal, and that domino will determine what happens with Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma in free agency. Last year’s 12-seed is likely on its way out of the postseason picture this season as they embark on their own major rebuild.
There will be plenty of other dominos to fall as teams assess what their future should be — a weak 2024 draft class may cause teams to hang on just a little bit longer if they should move toward rebuilding.
But this is the landscape of the Eastern Conference before we dive into those offseason maneuverings.
3 Up, 3 Down in the Eastern Conference playoff picture
1 Down: Brooklyn Nets
The obvious team that will open up a spot in the playoffs was the 6-seeded Brooklyn Nets.
They broke apart their potential championship team over the last two seasons, trading away Kyrie Irving to the Dallas Mavericks and Kevin Durant to the Phoenix Suns last year.
Brooklyn got a decent return.
Mikal Bridges seemed to flourish as the main star in a lot of ways. Cameron Johnson (a restricted free agent this offseason) seemed to play well too in the expanded role. They have a lot of young players worth building around. And Ben Simmons is still better than everyone probably imagines, even if the biggest question is when and if he will play.
Will that translate to wins? The evidence is not there. And the Brooklyn Nets do not own their own draft thanks to the James Harden trade with the Houston Rockets. Sean Marks is going to have to get creative with his rebuilding again.
The Nets stayed in the playoffs last year after those trades, but they were just 13-15 after the Durant trade. That would likely not be enough to secure the 6-seed and would put them squarely in the play-in conversation.
After the Durant trade, the Nets were 23rd in offensive rating (113.1 points per 100 possessions) and 16th in defensive rating (114.2 points allowed per 100 possessions). They had a -1.1 net rating in that time.
Nobody should completely write off the Nets. They are a team that can play above their station. But this is a team that has major deficits to rebuild.
For a full season, it is hard to see the Nets being a primary threat for the playoffs. This is a team that is clearly ready to cede its playoff spot for somebody to sneak in and grab.
Those are the opportunities the Orlando Magic need to make the playoffs.
3 Up, 3 Down in the Eastern Conference playoff picture
1 Up: Indiana Pacers
The Orlando Magic are not the only team that should rightfully be eyeing an open postseason spot. There are other young teams on the rise.
And at this point, the Indiana Pacers might have a stronger claim to be the most immediate it team than the Orlando Magic. The Magic might have a clearer future and star in Paolo Banchero, but the Pacers might be more ready to seize the moment today.
It should be no surprise. Rick Carlisle has always been an excellent coach. And the Pacers came together and played some stellar basketball.
They likely would have been in the playoffs if not for a Tyrese Haliburton injury in January. They lost nine of 10 games in that stretch to fall from 23-19 to 24-28. Haliburton then missed 13 of the Pacers’ final 15 games, where the team went 5-10. That took the Pacers firmly and finally completely out of playoff contention.
If the Pacers have a weakness it was an over-reliance on Haliburton and his individual growth.
They have some optimism that another year with Myles Turner and Buddy Hield will help the team take the leap along with a sophomore jump from Bennedict Mathurin. Not to mention they have the seventh pick in the draft — that could land them Taylor Hendricks, Jarace Walker, Cam Whitmore, Ausar Thompson or Anthony Black among others.
Indiana is not yet a complete picture. They are still young and need to shore up some depth to sustain and survive these injuries that hit them last year.
But this is a team that has already proven a lot more than a team like the Magic. It feels like, as things stand today, they should be first in line to take that empty spot in the postseason. Provided they stay healthy and stay on their trajectory.
It is probably too simplistic to say Haliburton’s injury derailed their season. But it is not that complicated either.
3 Up, 3 Down in the Eastern Conference playoff picture
2 Down: Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls really thought they struck it rich when they acquired Nikola Vucevic in March 2021. They thought they were getting an All-Star to pair with Zach LaVine. Enough to get LaVine to sign a long-term deal.
And to that point, Vucevic has not been bad in his years with the Bulls — 18.2 points per game and 11.1 rebounds per game with the Bulls — and he helped them acquire DeMar DeRozan. Their aggressive push in to get DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball helped propel the Bulls into the 2022 Playoffs and retain Zach LaVine.
But injuries have slowed that down and they have quickly realized Vucevic, for as solid as he is, puts a ceiling on the team. Even if the Bulls have been able to put together a solid statistical defense around him — they were fifth i the league at 111.5 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Everyone seemed miserable watching the Bulls. If not for a strong late-season push they may not have even made the Play-In Tournament.
Then again, the Chicago Bulls were up eight on the Miami Heat in the fourth quarter of the Play-In Tournament final and almost snuffed out that Heat run before it started. That is the frustrating part for the Bulls. They are good enough just not every night.
But Chicago is kind of trapped this off-season.
They are committed to the LaVine/DeRozan pairing financially. If they let Nikola Vucevic walk in free agency, there are not many good avenues to replace him — unless they are in the Kristaps Porzingis running (the Bulls would have $22.2 million in cap room if they do not retain Vucevic but that does not include player options that appear likely to be picked up).
It feels like the Bulls need to re-sign Vucevic. And if they do that, then they are just spinning their wheels with the same group. A group that is capable of making the postseason for sure. But one that is not really a threat to do anything.
This might be why the Bulls appear to be quietly shopping LaVine, according to several reports. They could be ready to hit reset in a more meaningful way.
These are all the tell-tale signs of a disastrous trade. The Orlando Magic are reaping the rewards of moving up because of their deal with the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls are going to be heading on the way down.
3 Up, 3 Down in the Eastern Conference playoff picture
2 Up: Detroit Pistons
It is hard to think of a team that went 17-65 and finished with the worst record in the league as a team on the rise. Especially considering that team was the one team in the bottom four to fall out of the Lottery spots.
The Detroit Pistons probably feel a bit like they wasted this season because of that Lottery loss.
Still, if there is a team that is going to be on the rise alongside the Orlando Magic and a team that could become one of the team’s chief rivals, it is the Detroit Pistons.
They may have stepped on the pedal too quickly last year and raised expectations with their gambit on veterans like Bojan Bogdanovic. But, who could plan for the Cade Cunningham injury that limited him to just 12 games?
And Cunningham was still very good in those 12 games — 19.9 points per game, 6.2 rebounds per game, 6.0 assists per game albeit on inefficient shooting splits (41.5/27.9/83.7). Cunningham absolutely has another gear and this young team was very reliant on him to be the engine.
The talent potential on this team is great not just because of Cunningham’s return. They have Jaden Ivey coming off an impressive rookie year. And the fifth pick in the draft could net them Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson or Cam Whitmore.
They also have cap room — $43.2 million in cap room even with picking up Alec Burks’ team option — and could be a team that tries to throw a lot of money at a player to entice them to Detroit and get back on track after their Bogdanovic bet last year to be good while they develop.
The biggest problem for them is just roster balance with all the centers they have on the roster — and Jalen Duren might be their best after a strong rookie season.
Detroit probably is a bit farther than Orlando. But not by much. And they could make up that gap quickly if Cunningham hits the ground running.
3 Up, 3 Down in the Eastern Conference playoff picture
3 Down: Toronto Raptors
There are a number of teams who could be on the way down too.
The Miami Heat have #HEATCulture but they have a lot of salary cap problems to fix. They finished seventh in the Eastern Conference. Even if their grit can take them a pretty long way.
The Atlanta Hawks seem like a mess still. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray could be more effective in their second year together. But Clint Capela seems to be on the back nine of his career. And John Collins is just stagnating. They are missing something.
But the team that appears ready for a reset and could be freeing up a postseason spot is the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors are in a state of transition. They moved on from coach Nick Nurse. They seem poised to trade OG Anunoby — for a healthy return, but still moving on from a key starter. And Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. both seem likely to leave the team in free agency.
Pascal Siakam is a solid player. Scottie Barnes is a solid player. But those two players on their own without Nurse’s offensive game-planning (even if he overplayed his starters) and with a rookie head coach, albeit a good player development coach, in Darko Rajakovic.
But that is the key. The Raptors did not hire an Xs and Os mastermind or an experienced coach. They hired one of the best development coaches in the league. That would certainly suggest the Raptors are expecting a bit of a reset.
And considering this Toronto team seemed to be hitting the nadir of this group’s contention phase after falling in the Play-In Tournament to the Chicago Bulls, it certainly seems like the Raptors could be continuing that trip downward to reload some of their talent.
Toronto will not go down without a fight. This team has talent and a culture even with a new coach. The Raptors will still be a tough out. But it seems like they are not quite the contenders they were before these moves. And they are due for a bottoming out.
3 Up, 3 Down in the Eastern Conference playoff picture
3 Up: Charlotte Hornets
It is easy to forget about the Charlotte Hornets. They had the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference and really struggled for a number of reasons last year.
The first is LaMelo Ball played only 36 games last year. That was a big loss for the Hornets. He has been the catalyst for this Hornets’ team’s limited success the last few years and an All-Star talent. There was simply no replacing his offensive push and force.
The second was the decision not to retain Miles Bridges after his sexual assault charge during the offseason. The Hornets made the right decision to keep Bridges at arm’s length and not bring him back in after such a serious criminal charge. But they missed that versatile forward and they could not replace his scoring output.
Teams in the play-in range are always on a knife’s edge. Injuries to the wrong key players lead to disaster.
But it is easy to forget then that the Hornets made the Play-In Tournament the previous two seasons. They did not win in either tournament, but that showed enough spark to think they could be competitive. And Steve Clifford is a wizard and milking every ounce of defensive energy out of his teams and teaching young teams how to win at a basic level.
Putting together a healthy LaMelo Ball along with the second overall pick — Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller — and the Hornets should be right back at least where they were before Ball’s injuries last year. And that is Play-In contention.
There are a lot of holes to plug. How much should the team rely on Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier and can they retain Kelly Oubre Jr. (watch for him on the Orlando Magic free agent front if they miss on some guys)? And this still was not a good defensive team through it all — 20th in the league at 114.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.
This Hornets will be better just because of health next season. And that will be a threat to the Magic’s inevitable rise.