The Orlando Magic are coming off a season that was a massive success.
For the first time in nearly a decade, the Magic not only can count on a season that feels like progress, but a team that seems to be growing.
The early stages of the Magic’s post-Dwight Howard rebuild had some hope but nothing ever coalesced like this — not until the Magic were ready to detonate things. And the late revival from the Steve Clifford-led teams in 2019 and 2020 always seemed to have an expiration date.
Getting the No. 1 pick and having Paolo Banchero win Rookie of the Year indeed changes the outlook for a team. The fact Banchero seemed to have a historical rookie season only adds to the excitement.
Now it is about building the right team around that group to make the jump from 22 to 34 wins a jump into the postseason.
This is not the end of the journey. The Magic aimed to level up this season and certainly did that in establishing more consistency toward winning. Now they want to level up again. They have already laid out the terms for the season and their desire to make the playoffs.
Banchero’s description of “Playoffs or bust” is a good goal to have. But to get there is going to take a lot of work.
And it is easy to see where the team’s biggest need is. The Magic have to find shooting to improve.
As the Orlando Magic prepare for their offseason, shooting is the biggest need they have to fill. And they will have a lot of avenues to find this needed improvement.
After revolutionizing the league and its relationship with 3-pointers in the late 2000s with Dwight Howard as the central figure everything pivoted around. The Magic have not been able to replicate the shooting necessary to compete since losing Howard. Three-point shooting has only gotten bigger and more important since then.
Orlando was left behind through some poor drafting decisions that did not emphasize shooting and poor team building that did not emphasize shooting as a supporting trait.
That is still a hole the team is digging itself out of. And a big reason why Orlando still ranks in the bottom 10 in offensive rating is because of the team’s poor shooting.
So the Magic will spend their offseason hunting for shooting.
Orlando Magic Offseason Needs: Shooting
Option 1: Internal Improvement
The Orlando Magic are flush with resources to improve their roster this summer.
The Magic are expected to have two picks in the upcoming NBA Draft Lottery. Additionally, Orlando is expected to have somewhere near $25 million in cap room the team can use to add to the roster. Not to mention having a roster full of young players on fairly affordable deals and all that cap room to use in potential trades.
Despite all this, nobody is expecting the Magic to throw that weight around. Instead, they are going to be expected to add key players around the core they are building.
And it is easy to see shooting is going to be a big part of this puzzle. It will be hard for the team to add any wing player that cannot shoot, especially considering how much the Magic struggled from deep.
But everything with a young team always starts with how much better their young players get. And so Orlando is not going to solve all of its shooting problems externally. But it is clearly a problem the team has to solve.
The Magic were 24th in the league in 3-point field goal percentage at 34.6 percent. They were 27th in attempts at 31.1 3-point attempts per game and, thus, 25th in 3-point makes at 10.8 per game.
That at least hints that the Magic could be a better 3-point shooting team if they took more. But it is also a statement that the 3-pointer just was not a weapon.
It is OK in this league to shoot a low volume of 3-pointers if you are efficient. The Magic constantly found themselves trapped by being a low-volume and poor 3-point shooting team.
If anything can unlock the Magic’s offense — and thus make life easier for the drives from Markelle Fultz, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner — it is shooting. Certainly, that would boost things off the bench.
There are certainly some hints internal development will help with this. Cole Anthony was a solid 36.4 percent from deep and Franz Wagner also shot 36.1 percent. Jalen Suggs even came on strong, improving his season-long 32.7 percent from deep to 36.0 percent in 19 games after the All-Star Break.
Even Markelle Fultz started to come around with his shooting, hitting 32.4 percent of his 3-pointers after the All-Star Break and 5 for 8 in his final five games. The volume is very low but the potential for improvement is clear.
But the quality shooting depth runs out quickly on this team. Gary Harris, who shot 43.1 percent on 4.5 attempts per game, was by far the best shooter on the team. The Magic are almost begging him to shoot more.
It is easy to see why shooting is the Magic’s biggest need.
Everyone recognizes shooting is a major part of the Magic’s offseason. League executives are already predicting the Magic will make moves for shooting. And certainly, fans have their focus on shooting.
Just how and where the Magic add to their shooting will be one of the biggest keys for this team. Orlando can and likely will add shooting from multiple avenues.
Orlando Magic Offseason Needs: Shooting
Option 2: The Draft
If there is one goal for the Orlando Magic on Draft night, it should be to come away with shooting. Whether that comes from a player the team selects in the Draft or comes from a trade on draft night. But the Magic should view shooting as such a big need that they address it in some way on draft night.
The good news for the Magic is that the draft does offer them plenty of options for shooters to add to the fold that should be available with the sixth pick and the 11th pick, where the team is currently projected to land in the Lottery.
Orlando could certainly knock out a few of their needs too while adding shooting.
The best shooter in the draft is likely Kansas guard Gradey Dick. Dick averaged 14.1 points per game, hitting on 40.3 percent of his 3-pointers on 5.7 attempts per game last year. He made 85.4 percent of his free throws.
Dick is the purest shooter in the draft class and the one who seems like he would jump right in and be a shooting specialist. He can hit shots in a variety of areas. His upside is limited. But shooting is such a premium that he would fit in well immediately.
He will be off the board if the Magic do not take him sixth. But there are other shooters to consider later on in the draft.
UConn’s Jordan Hawkins is the late riser in this draft, riding the wave of the national championship for sure. Hawkins averaged 16.2 points per game shooting 38.8 percent from deep on 7.6 attempts per game with an 88.7 percent free throw percentage.
This statistical profile from Hawkins actually looks a lot better than Dick’s profile. And Hawkins can attack a little bit more off the dribble. But Hawkins is a bit older after staying in school for two years.
But UConn runs an offense that is similar to an NBA offense. He was able to shoot on the move and hit a lot of the shots that NBA teams will love.
If the Magic come away with one or both of these players, it is pretty safe to say the Magic’s shooting needs are filled.
But there are a few other players to watch like UCF forward Taylor Hendricks (39.4 percent shooting from deep), Baylor’s Keyonte George (33.8 percent) and Michigan’s Jett Howard (36.8 percent).
Orlando Magic Offseason Needs: Shooting
Option 3: Volume Shooting
The Orlando Magic’s biggest problem is obviously they need to make more threes. But a secondary and important problem to solve is their inability to get quality 3-point looks.
Some of this is certainly the roster they have. A group without a significant number of quality shooters is going to be hesitant to shoot. The Magic as presently constructed should not take more than the about 30-32 3-pointers they take per game.
But that is the very thing that needs to change. The Magic need to get guys who are going to put up a lot of shots.
It is very unlikely the Magic are going to set themselves up to throw money at a max guy — although the team could free up north of $30 million, expect them to act like they have $23-$25 million in room and even that they probably will not spend all of.
But there is a reason the trade deadline obsession centered on Fred VanVleet.
VanVleet is a bursty scorer who is a better defender than he gets credit for. But the big attraction with him is that he can take over games off the dribble but also work well off the ball as a volume 3-point shooter.
VanVleet averaged 19.3 points per game on 34.2 percent shooting from deep and 8.8 3-point attempts per game. That is actually down from more than nine the previous year. He has averaged more than 5.0 3-point attempts per game in each of the last four years.
VanVleet is likely out of the Magic’s price — and age — range for a player of that importance. But it is easy to see why the Magic would be interested.
The same could be said for his teammate in Gary Trent Jr. He provides a similar kind of volume shooting that the Magic are missing.
Trent averaged 17.4 points per game on 36.9 percent 3-point shooting and 6.8 attempts per game (down from 7.8 per game).
Trent has a reputation for being a bit streaky. But nobody will ever fault him for not getting those shots up. And that is sort of what the Magic are looking for. They need someone who can shoot 35-plus percent on five or six attempts per game.
Trent is likely to command a salary near $20 million. So that too might be a bit too rich for a Magic team that is still seeking some financial flexibility and has several needs to fill with free agency and the draft.
There are some other affordable options too.
The Miami Heat duo of Max Strus and Gabe Vincent have both proven themselves as solid 3-point shooters on a championship-level team. They are both due big raises — both made $1.8 million last season and are probably due for contracts that net them at least the mid-level exception in the $8-10 million range.
Strus shot 35.0 percent from deep on 7.0 3-point attempts per game to get to his 11.5 points per game this season. Vincent scored 9.4 points per game and shot 33.4 percent on 5.1 attempts per game.
The percentages may not be impressive, but they shoot enough volume to make up for it and still be effective.
And that is the biggest piece of this puzzle the Magic are missing. They need guys who are just going to shoot.
Orlando Magic Offseason Needs: Shooting
Option 4: Three and D
Not every team believes in the kind of spread-it-out, keep-firing-away offenses that both the Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat run. Teams need to be able to shoot threes, but those are both teams that emphasize the skills of those suggested players and maximize them.
There is no guarantee, in other words, that a player like Max Strus would get the same kinds of looks and the same number of looks in the Orlando Magic’s atmosphere as he did in the Miami Heat’s atmosphere.
This is part of the calculus teams have to make as they evaluate free agents and how players would fit.
The Magic have made it clear they like versatility and players who can bring it on both ends. They may forever be a low-volume 3-point shooting team. So they may be looking for someone who can space the floor better while adding different skills.
The archetype of the 3-and-D wing may be more of what they are looking for — especially as they expect internal improvement, especially with their passing from their key young players.
That might make other options a better fit.
The hottest free agent this offseason might well be Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves.
Reaves has played well on a big showcase with a marquee team for sure. And there is always the concern that this is coloring everyone’s perception of him. But he has also been pretty good.
Reaves averaged 13.0 points per game this year with 3.4 assists per game and a 61.6 percent effective field goal percentage. He hit on 39.8 percent of his 3.4 3-point attempts per game. Reaves’ game is really about being a shooting threat but leveraging that to get into the lane where he is excellent at drawing contact — just ask the Magic from their game in Los Angeles in March.
In the playoffs through Game 4 of the Los Angeles Lakers’ series with the Golden State Warriors, he is averaging 14.47 points per game on 34.6 percent shooting on 5.2 attempts per game. His volume has increased and his efficiency has gone down in the postseason. But he is still proving himself to be a capable outside shooter in a big moment.
Reaves is an adequate defender. So he does not quite fit the 3-and-D label. But he certainly is a multi-skilled guard who could add another playmaker and driver to try to create some space for more shooting lanes. it is not like the Lakers were known for their shooting.
It is uncertain what Reaves’ market will be. The Lakers have limited matching rights to him and it is easy to believe he could blow past that amount. Especially if the Magic come calling and try to frontload his contract to discourage the Lakers from matching.
It would be a big investment from the Magic to bring Reaves in.
Additionally, a player like Bruce Brown of the Denver Nuggets has put himself in a great position entering free agency.
He had a good run with the Brooklyn Nets but got lost in the free-agent shuffle before signing with the Denver Nuggets last summer. He signed a two-year deal at $13.3 million. He has a player option for next year and could get a little bit of a pay bump.
He averaged 11.5 points per game while shooting 35.8 percent from beyond the arc (on 3.2 attempts per game) this season with the Nuggets. In the playoffs through Game 4 of their second-round series, he is averaging 10.7 points per game on 21.1 percent shooting from deep.
Brown has always been a bit of an inconsistent shooter. So there is a lot to evaluate.
But his real value comes from being a solid wing defender. He has had a positive defensive impact throughout his career. And as a versatile specialist especially off the bench, he has a lot of value.
Another lower-level option to look at is Sacramento Kings guard Terance Davis. Davis was in and out of the rotation for the Kings this year, making 36.6 percent of his 3.8 attempts per game. But he would likely be an end-of-free-agency option if the musical chairs run out.
Orlando Magic Offseason Needs: Shooting
Option 5: Gunners
There is, of course, another type of shooter. One the Orlando Magic perhaps need to avoid, but one who could still prove to have some value.
Of course, we are talking about “the gunner.” A pejorative label for a high-volume scorer who takes a lot of shots to get a lot of points.
This brand of player still has value in the league. Every team needs a big scorer off the bench and someone who is not afraid to take charge with bench lineups and get some shots up.
But the premium that teams used to play for raw production has certainly changed. These are not the $20 million per year players they once were. But they still come at a pretty hefty cost.
At one point, this was probably the label put on Cole Anthony. He was an inefficient scorer in college but someone who needed the ball in his hands and a lot of shots to get going. That might also describe the early part of his career when the Magic had to put the ball in his hands a lot because of the injuries on the roster.
Last year, though, saw a transformation with Anthony. He had his most effective and efficient season, averaging 13.0 points per game on 36.4 percent shooting from deep (with 3.4 attempts per game).
The Magic may not need to go after a so-called gunner in free agency because Anthony may yet develop into the positive version of this kind of player. And he is extension eligible this offseason and could end up being the big signing — or re-signing — of the offseason.
Whether the Magic get that extension done or seek out more high-volume bench scoring may come down to how real the Magic feel his 41.8 percent shooting from deep after the All-Star Break is.
Still, there are some other high-volume but low-efficiency 3-point shooters to consider in this free-agent class. But buyers beware of the cost they might require.
That would be a player like Kelly Oubre.
Oubre had the best scoring year of his career averaging 20.3 points per game for the Charlotte Hornets this season. But he shot one of his worst 3-point percentages, making 31.9 percent of his threes on 7.1 attempts per game.
His 3-point field goal percentage goes from between 30-35 percent most years, but he is consistently shooting more than five attempts per game. That volume is encouraging.
But the trick with Oubre is making sure you have a roster that can set him up for success. Last year with LaMelo Ball out, the Hornets were certainly not set up that way. He got a lot of shots and he was not afraid to take them.
The same could be said for D’Angelo Russell.
Russell is a former All-Star who has struggled to find his way to fit in with teams with other stars. He is having a bit of a Renaissance with the Los Angeles Lakers in their run. He is averaging 17.4 points per game since joining the Lakers in the regular season. He hit 41.4 percent of his 3-pointers after joining the Lakers and he was at 39.6 percent for the year. He is consistently shooting better than 36 percent from deep.
There is no denying Russell’s proficiency from deep. But he has struggled to make those around him better. And while his individual brilliance can lift a team on occasion, it has not always translated to team success. Especially when he has to take on a secondary role.
Will Barton could be another option as a high-volume shooter. But he really struggled to stay on the court this year and flamed out after getting picked up by the Toronto Raptors. That would be a last resort and not a high-level option at this point.