The Orlando Magic are sitting at home watching the postseason this year. They hope this will be the last time in a while that they will not get at least an 83rd game to their season.
For now, the Magic are focused on their future. They are focused on doing what they need to do to get to the postseason next year.
And as the team considers its future, the team and the franchise should be focused on what it will take to win in the playoffs.
The Magic are building their team still. They have a lot on the roster they want to foster and grow. But as the team enters the offseason and thinks about what to add to this team, they should have a distinct focus on what will win in the postseason and the kinds of players that will help lift the team up when the games really matter.
Orlando should be planning for its postseason runs now as they begin to construct their roster.
The Orlando Magic are knocking on the door of a long postseason run. But as they build their roster they need to think about who on their team could fall flat in the postseason and how to help them.
Obvioulsy, a lot of attention is rightfully on the Magic’s star players. At the end of the day, a team will go as far as their stars will take them — either as scorers themselves or in soaking up defensive attention. And right now the Magic are betting on Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner to deliver for them.
They just will not know how they will respond until they get into that playoff atmosphere.
What teams equally have to be aware of is players that could become targets and liabilities in the postseason. In a series that becomes about matchups — and especially with the amount of switching teams do — some players just do not work in a playoff setting.
Orlando is still building its team. And so it has to think about adding players who will help the team in the postseason just as much as the team has to start thinking about how to limit players on the roster who will struggle in the postseason.
With the Magic having to make several key decisions this offseason, the team should already be assessing its roster’s playoff capabilities.
And, unfortunately, that means considering how teams might attack the Magic. There are certainly a few players who right now may not be built for the postseason.
3 Orlando Magic players who could fall flat in the playoffs
Moe Wagner
The Orlando Magic know that depth and experience are probably the biggest areas where they have to make improvements. That does mean that not everyone from last year’s roster is going to get carried forward to this year’s roster.
And that could — and possibly should — mean a beloved player is moving on.
Certainly, postseason consideration is part of why the Magic have to think about improving their center position. At least for now coming off the bench.
Moe Wagner undoubtedly had a great season for the Magic, averaging a career-best 10.5 points per game and he carved out his role as the team’s backup center. The Magic often needed an offensive push this year and Wagner was the one who provided it. Oftentimes in unexpected ways and in key moments especially later in the season.
That is what Wagner is good at.
But in the playoffs, Wagner would be an easy target for opposing offenses. He is the kind of player who might easily get played off the court quickly. That is indeed something that happened as the Magic often turned to Goga Bitadze late in the season when they needed a defensive boost.
The numbers bear this out.
According to data from Second Spectrum, Wagner was the worst defender at the rim among centers in the entire league, giving up 75.5 percent shooting at the rim (there are players worse than him, but they did not play regular minutes).
Wagner also does not rate well as a pick-and-roll defender either. He gave up 1.17 points per possession on 0.4 pick-and-roll possessions per game according to tracking data from NBA.com.
That does not mean Wagner was completely off defensively.
The Magic had one of their best defensive marks with him on the floor — 110.6 points per 100 possessions when Wagner was on the floor — and Wagner led the team in taking charges. That is his best way to defend.
And according to data from Basketball-Index, he has a rim deterrence rating of -1.02 percent, placing him in the 73rd percentile in the league. That means teams are less likely to attack him when he is in the paint.
Basketball-Index also rates him well as a post defender (+1.25 rating, placing him in the 98th percentile) and screener rim defender (+0.30 rating, placing him in the 82nd percentile).
That may have more to do with the players that play alongside him — whether that was Franz Wagner helping next to him, Bol Bol adding some extra rim protection or, for that brief moment, Jonathan Isaac hounding the paint.
There is still something there. Hints that show Wagner can be effective.
But his rim defense is still a major concern, especially for a playoff setting when that skill especially becomes vital. Opponents shoot 7.60 percentage points better at the rim when Wagner is defending and he has a rim points saved per 75 possessions rating of -0.98 (the worst mark in the league).
For some reference, Bitadze was less of a rim deterrent but ranked in the 97th percentile with opponents shooting 9.60 percentage points worse than expected at the rim and saving 1.08 rim points per 75 possessions, both marks in the top-10 percentile in the league. This is why we had Bitadze on our list of potential playoff X-factors.
This is a little thing that teams in a playoff series would hone in on. They would look to put Wagner in compromising positions and test him at the rim constantly. And clearly, that is a winning bet if teams can isolate him there even if there are areas Wagner can succeed in.
This is something the Magic have to consider and think about as they decide whether to bring Moe Wagner back in free agency this offseason. Is Wagner a player who will help the team in the postseason or is he a liability?
3 Orlando Magic players who could fall flat in the playoffs
Paolo Banchero
The considerations for the Orlando Magic, as they think about how players will perform in the playoffs, are not just about who they might need to get rid of to move forward. It is also about finding ways to help their key players succeed more and what holes they might need to fill.
It is, like all things with this team, also about getting experience. This team needs to go through the growing pains of playing in the postseason for the first time with all the attendant pressure that comes with it.
No one is going to feel that pressure like Paolo Banchero. And his first postseason is likely going to be a rough one, even if he still puts up solid numbers.
The knock on Banchero throughout his rookie year was his lack of efficiency. That was a product of the Magic letting Banchero be their star and make mistakes in the process. He will surely get better with that as he continues to improve and grow.
The playoffs though will see him face pressure and double teams in ways he has not yet. And the growing pains he goes through will be natural and expected.
And he will likely not be alone in those struggles. Other stars like him had their issues in their first playoff series.
Player comps like Blake Griffin averaged only 19.0 points per game on 50.0-percent shooting in his first playoff series (and only 13.2 points per game while dealing with injuries in his second). Kevin Durant scored 25.0 points per game on 35.0-percent shooting in his introduction to the playoffs.
Banchero will almost certainly put up some strong raw scoring numbers his first time in the postseason. The Magic almost certainly will be relying on him to do so. And so that first playoff series is going to look like his rookie year — at times spectacular, at times inefficient and probably leading to defeat.
But all of it will be valuable.
The other area of concern, specifically when it comes to Banchero, is with the team’s rebounding. Banchero was notably not a strong rebounder last year, averaging a solid 6.9 rebounds per game. The problem was that he and Wendell Carter combined for just 15.6 rebounds per game total.
Orlando was a decent rebounding team by the numbers. But the team struggled throughout the season with rebounding consistently and avoiding giving up offensive rebounds and second-chance opportunities.
Only 24.5 percent of Banchero’s defensive rebounds were contested and only 32.9 percent of Carter’s defensive rebounds were contested. Carter ranked strongly otherwise as a rebounder. But rebounding is still Banchero’s biggest weakness that he has to focus on and develop.
Do not think that opposing teams will not realize this and send some extra attention to the offensive glass.
The playoffs have a way of exposing your every weakness. And this is one that should be easily anticipated from this Magic team.
3 Orlando Magic players who could fall flat in the playoffs
Cole Anthony
The hard part about projecting this Orlando Magic team is trying to figure out just how any player will react to the pressures of the postseason. And that is the challenge of what the Magic have to do this offseason. They are kind of flying blind trying to figure out which of their young players will be able to step up under the pressure.
And really, at the end of the day, the only way for the team to figure all of this out is actually to see their team play in the postseason.
One player who seems like he could be a great fit for the postseason pressure may also struggle.
And this may well be the central question surrounding Cole Anthony on a number of levels. Anthony settled in nicely as the season went on as the team’s sixth man. He showed himself capable of scoring in bunches off the bench.
This is why we thought he could be a potential X-factor for the Magic in the postseason. He is someone who can score in bunches and, increasingly in a variety of ways. That will become valuable to give the Magic an extra scoring punch.
But all the concerns for Anthony still exist in bunches.
Can he maintain that efficiency? That is probably the biggest question for him. There is no doubt he will continue to work on his offense and find his way to fit in with this team.
But that is not the only question facing Anthony.
Despite his best efforts and certain improvement, Anthony’s short stature and defense remain huge questions for him and the team.
This is not to say Anthony has not put in the effort defensively.
He has gotten a lot better defensively. And the Magic’s strategy of pressuring the ball full court seemed to fit Anthony’s eye, enabling him to dictate the pace defensively some and putting him in spots to try to get cheap steals and pressure (although sometimes to his detriment).
Orlando has worked hard to put Anthony in good defensive positions and to try to use his physicality to his advantage. Even though he does not pick up the same number of deflections and steals as others on the roster, Anthony still rates well at creating loose balls and steals.
Still, defenses are not going to be shy about targeting Anthony. And they are going to put him in pick and rolls — specifically perimeter player pick and rolls — to try to force him into uncomfortable matchups.
This is one of the reasons why bringing him off the bench makes more sense. That limits his time against the best scorers from the other team, allows him more manageable defensive assignments and helps him become the dominant scorer in the lineups and situations he is put in.
The reality is that in a playoff situation, Anthony can almost certainly be successful. But he is still limited. And the Magic have to understand that limitation right now.
This is all part of the consideration as the team thinks about offering an extension. The reality is Anthony can both be an X-factor and a detriment when the team gets to the postseason.