5 questions for the fourth quarter of the Orlando Magic’s 2023 season

The dream for any young team is to play meaningful games late in the season. To make it to the end of the season with something in front of them and a potential goal to achieve.

The ultimate sign that you are moving beyond the “tanking” phase of your rebuild and ready to think about what it will take to win in a real way.

The Orlando Magic were likely hoping to be in this position back in October. But here they are playing meaningful basketball at this stage of the season.

They are close enough to the postseason that it is a little carrot to hold out in front of their players. Every single one of them is talking about and at least partially focused on reducing that 4.5-game gap separating them from that final play-in spot.

The Orlando Magic enter the final quarter of the season as long shots to make the Play-In Tournament. But that still leaves the team with a lot to gain and learn in the final quarter of the season.

That is still a tall hill to climb. But for such a young team — Gary Harris is 28 years old and the elder statesman on the team with the recently signed Michael Carter-Williams checking in as the oldest player on the team at 31 — getting this experience is critical to their future growth.

The Magic may well become the next “it” team. And the experience they get playing these kinds of meaningful games will make the next phase of this team’s development that much easier. Everyone expects the Magic to take that leap next year.

This is the time to make mistakes and gain this experience. Even getting to .500 like the Magic have done essentially since Dec. 7 is a huge step forward.

These final 20 — now 19 — games this season will be about setting up the team’s future and continuing to evolve into the postseason team the Magic surely believe they will become in the 2024 season. It is about figuring out which players will fit into the team’s bigger picture as they begin to turn this into a winning outfit.

There is a lot to prove still for the Magic, even if we already consider the season an unqualified success.

There is nothing like time to figure this out. And the Magic have lots of time to figure things out. But once the season ends, they will have some decisions to make on how to get this team to the next level.

And that is the part that is so exciting for the rest of the season.

5 questions for the Orlando Magic’s fourth quarter

Will the Orlando Magic gain ground in the postseason chase?

The Orlando Magic want to be in the postseason chase.

The goal is close enough — for those who prefer tanking still (first, yuck), the Orlando Magic are closer to the postseason at 4.5 games behind the Washington Wizards than the tank chase at 6.5 games ahead of the Charlotte Hornets for fourth in the Lottery standings — that it feels within reach.

But it will take a heck of a run for the Magic to make the postseason. And Orlando has already lost some important games in the run to the postseason.

That loss last Saturday to the Indiana Pacers was big because the Orlando Magic not only have to make up the ground in terms of games behind the final spot, they have to pass over three teams — the Pacers, Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards — to get to that spot.

That is going to be tough on its own beyond the games the Magic have to make up.

The 10th-seeded Wizards are currently on pace to win 39 games. If that is the number to make the Playoffs (and the Magic still have two more games against the Wizards to split the season series), then the Magic need to go 13-6 in their final 19 games to make the playoffs.

That is a 56-win pace.

To say the least, if the Magic make the Play-In Tournament, we probably should be getting very excited about the 2024 season and what that could mean. It would take an incredible run for the Magic to play extra basketball.

There is still a lot of value in the attempt though. Even if the Magic fall short of the Play-In Tournament, they will feel the pressure of games that matter. They will feel the weight of every loss and how much they matter.

Orlando needs to fail now when there is nothing to lose so they can know what to do and how to win in these situations when the pressure gets applied next year.

This team is going to regret its 5-20 start even with all the injuries as something that cost the team a tangible goal. And if that is the reason the Magic miss the postseason this year, it sets them up for a big run next year in what should be a playoff year filled with playoff expectations.

5 questions for the Orlando Magic’s fourth quarter

Can Orlando Magic harden its defensive identity?

The Orlando Magic have long said they wanted to build their identity on defense. They certainly drafted players to play that way. They made it clear this would be the backbone of their team.

The results have always been a bit mixed. And the numbers last year and even this year do not quite shout this is a great defensive outfit.

The most impressive part of the Orlando Magic’s run has been its defensive advancement — Wednesday’s loss to the Milwaukee Bucks notwithstanding.

The team ranks 18th in the league in defensive rating at 113.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. That is not going to make anybody leap in the air and pump their fists about the team’s defense. It is not exactly going to leave opponents shaking in their boots.

But since we start measuring the season on Dec. 7, the Magic are 10th in the league with a defensive rating of 112.9 points allowed per 100 possessions. For the full season, that 112.9 defensive rating would place the Magic 11th in the league.

That feels like progress and at least the basis for this team to continue to grow.

And the one thing the Magic trumpeted at the end of last season was their defensive improvement in the final quarter of the season. Orlando finished seventh with a defensive rating of 111.5 points allowed per 100 possessions in the final quarter of last season.

Of course, that run included the 60-point game from Kyrie Irving and a 50-point game from Saddiq Bey and an 8-13 record (an improvement for a 22-win team record-wise).

This year’s Orlando Magic team is strong defensively, but still liable to have games like Wednesday’s loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. As good as Orlando can be on defense, they still give up 123.0 points per 100 possessions on the second night of back-to-backs. Luckily they only have two of those left this season and one of them does not involve travel (a Los Angeles back-to-back).

The Magic have shown plenty of potential on defense but there are still plenty of areas for them to grow, especially on their 3-point defense.

The final quarter of the season does make it easier to defend. The Magic should have a goal to continue growing its defensive mentality and results.

5 questions for the Orlando Magic’s fourth quarter

How does Paolo Banchero wrap his Rookie of the Year campaign?

Paolo Banchero is going to be the Rookie of the Year.

Even in his worst month of the season in February — where he averaged only 16.6 points per game and 7.5 rebounds per game while shooting 37.4 percent from the floor and 1 for 33 from beyond the arc — Banchero was far and away the best rookie, at least in the Eastern Conference.

Do not let anyone try to convince you that Bennedit Mathurin or Jaden Ivey or Walker Kessler should win Rookie of the Year — even all of those players have had fantastic seasons. Banchero is operating on a different wave than those players.

And that is the big question Banchero has as he tries to close his season. Does he fade a bit or does he burst through this mini-slump he has struggled through and make a statement to close the season?

Banchero is still plenty capable of big games. He showed that in scoring 29 points in Monday’s win over the New Orleans Pelicans to close the third quarter of the season. It is all still in there.

But Banchero has struggled with the way teams have started to blitz him and double-team him. His adjustment just has not come quickly to this new wave of pressure. And the fact his shot just has not followed him through the season has only further put him in the hole.

There should be very little concern about whether Banchero can bounce back. The rookie wall is a natural thing for even elite players to experience in their first season. The fact he is still able to attack and make some raw production is a testament to how good he already is and will continue to be as he develops.

But everyone wants to see him finish strong. For the Magic to make this postseason push, the team needs Banchero to rediscover some of his previous form.

Orlando is certainly not going to take the ball out of his hands. For better or for worse, the Magic are going to make Banchero their closer and offensive focus. They want him to go through the mistakes and poor decisions now so he can learn the right time to impose himself and how to make those decisions down the road.

This is a season for making those mistakes and learning and growing from them. Banchero will be better for any of the failures he has this year– be that late-game mistakes or his struggles to handle, diagnose and attack double teams.

Certainly, though, the Magic would love to see Banchero build some consistent play to end the season. That growth will come in the offseason. but they want to see him finish the season strong.

And that goes double on defense where he has alternated between having some really good moments and play and struggling to diagnose plays and make the correct rotation.

So much of what the Magic want to do is still based on what they get from Banchero.

5 questions for the Orlando Magic’s fourth quarter

Do the Orlando Magic’s point guards cement their roles?

The Orlando Magic will face a lot of questions this offseason. The team has built a solid foundation but clearly needs to continue upgrading and trying to get better. The question will be just how the Magic will do that and what they are willing to sacrifice.

They are also going to have to start figuring out how much they are willing to spend on their current roster, whether that is the group to keep building and growing with and how much they are willing to spend on this team.

There is a lot to like about a lot of the Magic’s players individually and how they have grown and developed this season. But there is a clear need to make some upgrades and find players who complement each other’s skills more. The goal is not merely to collect talent anymore but to build a winning team.

That has put the Magic’s point guards in the spotlight and should keep them in the spotlight as the season concludes. Orlando has a lot to decide when it comes to both Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony.

Fultz is entering the final year of his contract and is extension eligible if the Magic want to keep him longer. Anthony is also extension eligible coming off his rookie contract. And how much the Magic are willing to pay him and how much Anthony is seeking should make for some interesting negotiations.

Both of these players have done some great things individually.

Fultz is averaging a career-high 13.4 points per game and 5.5 assists per game this season. In the third quarter of the season, he averaged 14.6 points per game and 5.5 assists per game while shooting 52.1 percent from the floor.

Fultz has a great feel for the game and seems to have the best ability to control the team’s pace when the Magic turn him loose.

Anthony has fully embraced his bench role in the third quarter of the season. He averaged 11.3 points per game in the third quarter of the season. But did it on solid efficiency — 46.0/39.1/87.0 splits.

Anthony has had some big games off the bench too. And his ability to score makes him the perfect sixth man for the team moving forward, especially with the playmaking some of their bigs have.

Both players have done well to define and play their roles for the team. But part of the evaluation for this Magic team is figuring out if either of these players and the roles they play ultimately contribute to winning. And for both this offseason maybe about how much the Magic are willing to pay for those roles too.

Their play to end the season could well determine their futures with the team in the long run.

5 questions for the Orlando Magic’s fourth quarter

Can Jalen Suggs push to enter the starting lineup?

Jalen Suggs has been one of the nicer stories for the Orlando Magic throughout the third quarter of the season. After dealing with the expectations of being the team’s next star and dealing with injuries that dealt himmajor setbacks, the Magic seemed to define his role more clearly.

Suggs became a chaos creator. He entered games with the purpose of changing the team’s defensive temperature. He would get into opponents defensively, constantly applying pressure and creating deflections, steals and turnovers.

The Magic insisted throughout all of last season that Suggs rated highly on their defensive metrics. That was their way of trying to downplay his shooting struggles.

But those shooting struggles continued into this year. Suggs is shooting 40.9 percent from teh floor and 30.0 percent from beyond the arc.

That is actually quite an improvement for Suggs. He has become a reliable mid-range jumper. And adding that with his defensive prowess has made Suggs look like a more suitable player.

In the third quarter of the season, Suggs averaged  7.4 points per game on shooting splits of 40.5/33.9/72.2. This quarter of the seaosn, Suggs got himself back from injury and started to find his footing.

That stability is critical for a young player. But more importantly, Suggs seemed to finally find some guardrails so that he could be effective rather than trying to do too much.

Still, everyone is interested to see more of him. He is such an effective defensive player — the Magic have a 112.1 defensive rating with Suggs on the floor for the season and a 108.7 defensive rating with him on the floor since Jan. 10.

Suggs deserves credit for hleping lift the defense up during that time. But he has been part of a defensive terror lineup that includes Jonathan Isaac and Franz Wagner.

There is at least some hint that Suggs should or could push to get into the starting lineup — even though Gary Harris has been a fairly effective 3-point shooter and a solid defender with that starting group.

Nobody should be giving up on Suggs any time soon. Even if his role is just to be a chaotic defender who can occasionally hit a shot.

Ultimately, Suggs’ effectiveness will come down to whether he continues to hit shots. His 3-pointer has taken a step forward (even though it still needs to improve further for him to get starter consideration).

Suggs re-established himself thanks to a cleaner bill of health over the last 21 games. No one has more to gain from a strong finish to the season than Suggs. Orlando has kept the faith in him and has found him a role where he can excell. Suggs has had a strong sophomore season, even if it is not the role or anyone thought he would have on draft night.

But that is a credit to Suggs for embracing the role in front of him and making the most of it. He is genuinely exciting to watch. And now he has something he can build the rest of his career and growth on moving forward.