What do we make of the Orlando Magic season so far?
On one hand, the Magic have shown tremendous growth and development. The very thing the Magic were supposed to be about this season and their ultimate goal and judge for the entire season.
Paolo Banchero is a seeming shoo-in to win Rookie of the Year at this point. Franz Wagner has developed into a near-All-Star as a sophomore forward. And players throughout this extremely young roster are starting to fill in and find their roles.
The first quarter of the season was about survival in every way. The Magic continued to struggle with injuries that gutted their point guard depth especially. Their lack of experience and the experimenting the Magic were doing with their versatile young roster assured there would be growing pains. It was felt completely in the win column.
The Orlando Magic found their groove in the second quarter of the season as they began to climb the standings. The third quarter will see the team shape its short- and long-term future.
As Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony returned to the court and the team found some stability — and some health to put out the same lineup every night — the Magic started to find their groove. They went 10-10 in the second quarter of the season.
This is a small step in the right direction toward the team winning. It is becoming a more normal thing for this team.
That is the biggest point of growth for this team and where the team stands as it has begun the second half of its season. Orlando is no longer a team that is purely about development on a granular level, this is a teamt hat has shown itself capable and wants to win more.
The question left for this season is just how much is the team going to win? How much of that tangible progress can the team make? And just how far it can go?
There are obviously more questions to ask about this team as it goes in that process. Each stretch of games — each road trip, homestand, victory, setback, pitfall et al. — will bring with it a new challenge and a chance to assess where this team is at.
The Magic’s front office will obviously have the team’s long-term interests in mind as it evaluates the roster ahead of the Feb. 9 trade deadline. The team may well spend part of its next 20 games setting up the next few years as much as they aim to make the most of this season.
But there is a lot to get to still with this group as the Magic assess what comes next and see if they can make something special out of this season too.
The third quarter of the season will be about building consistency then. It will be about seeing if the Magic can continue to make winning more than a habit and climb the standings.
And then it will be about what comes beyond this season and how Orlando sets itself up for next offseason — whether that is making more moves on the edges to foster gradual growth or whether the team feels this group could be ready for a major move this team is capable of.
The next 20 or so games are critical for the team in many ways.
5 questions for the third quarter of the Orlando Magic’s 2023 season
Can the Orlando Magic make a postseason push?
The Orlando Magic organizationally have never put pressure on this team to win and make serious gains in the standings. Even at this point of the season, coach Jamahl Mosley is not willing to say the ‘p’ word or any of its variations when talking about the team’s expectations or goals.
Those goals remain focused on development and improvement. And that is certainly central to his coaching philosophy — do not yell at him for sticking with lineups that are seemingly not working as he gives young players some space to figure things out or apply instruction before sitting down and watching.
The players? They have a different idea already of what this season would be.
What started out as confident whispers from training camp — Markelle Fultz’s social media proclamation of “4th seed” has been something of a rallying cry for fans and Gary Harris was more explicit that September morning saying he believed the team should be a playoff team — has slowly become a realistic possibility.
That is what winning eight of nine games can do in a tightly packed conference. A 10-10 second quarter of the season allowed the Magic to tread some water and let the conference fall to them. That is not to say Orlando still does not have work to do.
And if the Magic want to shock the NBA world and sneak into the Play-In Tournament, they are going to have to put some wins together very quickly and in long stretches. They have a big hole to climb out of.
Exiting games on Jan. 17, the Orlando Magic (16-28) sit four games behind the Chicago Bulls (20-24) for the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. That is not an impossible margin to make up but the team will have its work cut out for it.
The Orlando Magic have clearly separated themselves from the bottom of the Eastern Conference too, staying 5.5 games ahead of the Detroit Pistons for 14th in the East.
This is all to say, the Magic are too good to tank at this point if that is what fans still want this group to do. And there is significantly more value in trying to get this team to win than it is to fall down the standings.
At least for the third quarter of the season before those final stretch of games, the Magic can create their own destiny before other interests take hold.
That should be empowering. If Orlando can string together wins as the team did for much of the second quarter of the season, it can put itself in the position to play meaningful, pressure-packed games in March and April. And who knows from there?
But more importantly for the franchise, seeing this group play these pressure-filled games will reveal flaws the front office needs to fill to get to that next level.
Either way, these 21-or-so games (the third quarter of the season concludes Feb. 27 in New Orleans, just three games after the All-Star Break) will determine whether the Magic are in the postseaosn hunt or not.
5 questions for the third quarter of the Orlando Magic’s 2023 season
Will Orlando Magic harden its defensive identity?
How will the Orlando Magic climb back into the postseaosn picture and make that tangible progress? It is all going to go back to the team’s identity and the things it can rely on each night.
Ask players on the team or the coaching staff and they will tell you that it is about the team’s defense. They want to, as coach Jamahl Mosley puts it repeatedly, “hang their hat on the defensive end.”
Never mind, that Orlando’s clearest identity comes in its ability to attack the paint and get to the foul line. This is a rim-attacking team offensively. At least the Magic seem to have that down.
Still, the team’s best moments and stretches of play come when it is able to defend at a high level. That was one of the biggest keys during the team’s winning run in December.
For the entire season so far, the Magic are ranked 23rd in the league with a 114.4 defensive rating. In the first quarter of the season (the first 21 games), the Magic ranked 27th at 115.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. Since then, Orlando ranks 13th in the league at 113.8 points allowed per 100 possessions.
That is measured progress. Orlando is trying to carve its defensive identity and has put a lot of focus on stopping scoring in the paint.
Still, problems persist.
The team fouls a lot when it is at its worst — although the team gives up the 11th most free throw attempts per game (23.4 per game) and 11th in opponent free throw rate (26.7 percent). Now the team is having an issue with its rebounding — opponents have a 27.9 percent offensive rebound rate against the Magic, 14th in the league, but that number balloons to 29.6 percent (22nd in the league) in the last 10 games.
The team’s struggles defensively are all part of the same theme. Orlando needs to play with more consistency. The league is about what a team can do every single night. That is still the big question for the Magic.
And the team’s consistency will be displayed most with its defense. If the Magic are defending at the level they have during their win streak, then they can put together wins. If they struggle to do so, then the losses can pile up pretty quickly for this team.
Defense is indeed the heart of the Magic’s success. Everyone can see how flawed this team’s offense can be — although there are certainly positive elements to it like its ability to attack the paint and get to the foul line.
The biggest point of this season was to see the seeds of this team’s eventual success. That is evident. As the season turns the corner for him, the Magic need to see the positive elements shine brighter and the team take steps toward consistency so they can really start building next season.
5 questions for the third quarter of the Orlando Magic’s 2023 season
Will the Orlando Magic make a splash at the trade deadline?
The midpoint of the season brings with it not only the focus on the postseason, but the looming clouds of the trade deadline. It is something every team has to focus on and think about no matter where they are in the standings.
The trick is figuring out what a team’s goals for the deadline are or will be.
The trade deadline is a market for buyers and sellers and not typically for major team reformations, unless it is a teardown to set up for the next offseason or a rebuild. Teams that need that last little bit to get themselves over the top to accomplish their goals are the ones who drive the market.
The Orlando Magic are still figuring out which direction in the standings the team intends to go — presumably going up and trying to fight for a playoff spot. That would suggest Orlando might consider being a buyer at the deadline.
With their cache of draft picks and young players, Orlando is positioned to make a splash if the team wants to do it.
But the Magic are so far back in the standings still, pushing some chips in to make the postseason this year would be a bit of fool’s gold. As president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said repeatedly the team is not seeking a sugar high of a playoff spot.
The Magic’s focus this offseason will be on its long term. That would suggest the team is not about to push its chips in at the deadline unless a killer deal comes along.
The Fred VanVleet rumors may have to wait for free agency. Although there continues to be reporting suggesting the Orlando Magic could go after the Toronto Raptors’ shooting guard.
The market more likely sees the Magic as sellers. Teams are likely circling to try to get veterans Terrence Ross and Gary Harris from the team at minimal cost or even Mo Bamba who has seemingly been squeezed out of the rotation.
It feels a whole lot more likely the Magic will be fairly quiet at the deadline. The team is not looking to upend anything.
Perhaps the team trades Terrence Ross, who is on an expiring deal, for a buyout candidate — a trade proposal with the Los Angeles Lakers involving Patrick Beverley has gained some attractiveness among fans — but the return is not likely going to be much because of Ross’ contract status.
Harris might be able to fetch more. But his injury issues this year has likely depressed his price. And who knows what Bamba would fetch? It does not seem like a ton.
The reality for the Magic is that they do not have a lot of leverage at the trade deadline to deploy their assets. And their team seems to be in a wait-and-see mode with several of the young players.
Orlando seems due for a consolidation trade at some point. But mutually beneficial trades usually come in the offseason. That feels like when the Magic are going to make a big splash.
Stability has been something the team has sought throughout the season so far with all the injuries the Magic faced earlier in the season. It is hard to see the team upsetting the apple cart so much.
5 questions for the third quarter of the Orlando Magic’s 2023 season
When will Jonathan Isaac return?
This is the big question. The question everyone associated with the Orlando Magic gets from everyone — whether it is media asking the team, friends asking the media, other media members asking the media: When is Jonathan Isaac going to return?
It has now been more than three years since Isaac’s original knee injury on Jan. 1, 2020. Since then the world has gone through a pandemic and the roster and completely reformed — only three players remain on teht eam since Isaac last played. Isaac has played just two NBA games through all of that — both in the bubble from the resumes 2020 season.
The recovery process has been long and arduous for sure. Much longer than the typical recovery from a torn ACL — and whatever hamstring injury Isaac had last March that slowed down his recovery.
The Magic themselves have been extra cautious with his recovery becuase of his long injury history and now the long delay in his return. The Magic have essentially had to operate as if Isaac is not part of the plans. His return would be a bonus.
But that return is imminent. Or as imminent as it can be.
Isaac is playing games with the Lakeland Magic now — he looked impressive if not fatigued during his first run last week and is set to play with Lakeland again Thursday in Sioux Falls — and that at least feels like the final step before he rejoins the team for good on the court.
It is almost here. That is about the only thing that feels certain for Isaac and the Magic.
The when? Good luck trying to get that out of anybody.
He is clearly out for Friday’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans. But this next week is a good pocket of home games to bring him back — four of the next six including Friday’s game are at home and the two road games are part of back to backs that Isaac is unlikely to play in anyway.
After that? Orlando does not have any extended period at the Amway Center until a three-game homestand in early February (spanning through the trade deadline on Feb. 9). The All-Star Break is the next break after that.
The All-Star Break and playing Jonathan Isaac for the final quarter of the season in a similar manner as Markelle Fultz last year seems like the worst-case scenario for his return.
Right now, Isaac is rebuilding his game conditioning in the G-League. But it should not take that long for him to be ready for NBA action again.
5 questions for the third quarter of the Orlando Magic’s 2023 season
Can Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner get some All-Star love?
The third quarter of the season will essentially end with the All-Stars gathering together in Salt Lake City for the annual league showcase.
The Orlando Magic are already pretty certain Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner will represent them in the Rising Stars Game (and whatever format the league choses to use for it after last year’s four-team experiment).
It is good to know that the Magic will be there.
This season has been spent creating hype for the Magic’s young forwards and their potential.
Banchero has essentially clinched the Rookie of the Year award already at this point by putting up rookie numbers no one has seen in a Magic uniform since Shaquille O’Neal and the league has not really seen since Blake Griffin.
Wagner has been so consistent and solid for this team that several draft experts and writers along with several NBA writers are willing to entertain the notion that Wagner is the best players right now from that celebrated and deep 2021 Draft class.
In either case, Banchero and Wagner with their size, ball-handling, skill and versatility have many NBA pundits believing the Magic are set up extremely well for their future. They are going to get the recognition Friday for that.
The question is whether either will get recognition for the Sunday showcase rather than just the Friday appetizer.
That time is probably not this year. Neither is likely to get the nod from the fan voting — Banchero is surprisingly eighth in the voting for the loaded Eastern Conference frontcourt. And it is asking a lot of coaches to honor a rookie and a second-year player on a team that is still 10 games under .500.
But both Wagner and Banchero are puting in All-Star capable seasons. And if this is just the beginning for both, it will not be long until the Magic have a consistent presence in the Sunday game for some time.
Banchero is leading the team in scoring with 21.1 points per game on decent efficiency for his experience and usage at a 48.2-percent effective field goal percentage. He makes up for a lot of it by averaging 7.8 free throw attempts (only recently dipping below 8.0 per game).
Wagner is coming on strong, averaging 20.3 points per game on 54.5-percent effective field goal percentage all while taking on an expanded ball-handling role and facing the best defenders on the opposing team.
These two have become a matchup problem throughout the league. And if these numbers hold up, they will be the first Magic duo to average 20.0 points per game in the same season since Shaquille O’Neal and Anfernee Hardaway in 1996. That is the company this group is about to keep — even in a league with elevated scoring numbers.
Orlando may not see these two players play the showcase game on Sunday this year. But it will not be long before the Magic are back in the All-Star Game. So enjoy this Rookie Game one more time because the Magic are starting to plant their flag throughout the league.