The Orlando Magic’s seven-game homestand is now in the books, with the team going an underwhelming 3-4 during their extended stay at home. There were certainly a number of highs, and beating opponents of the caliber of the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns is always cause for celebration.
But there were also puzzling lows, not to mention the absence of Paolo Banchero for the last four games with an ankle sprain.
To win two games without him demonstrated a commendable team effort the Magic will need if they are to transition toward play-in hopefuls. To then lose the next two without Banchero served to highlight how much they rely on him offensively already.
This homestand was a strange one, and the overriding feeling right now is of a missed opportunity to get some wins on the board.
Neither Markelle Fultz nor Jonathan Isaac made an appearance, although Gary Harris looks to be closer to returning to the court (eds. note: The Magic have officially listed him as AVAILABLE for Friday’s game).
Second-unit players like Mo Bamba continued to make their case for more minutes, while Chuma Okeke is one of the few who can go back out on the road again feeling happy with the last seven games.
His role increasing in small doses, but with management and fans alike both recognizing that good things are now happening more consistently when he is on the court. There is plenty more to get to, so let’s take a look at the three overarching themes of the time spent by the Magic in the Amway Center.
3. They are playing to the level of their opponents.
An annoying trait of teams that are growing, or lacking in a strong identity, is how they can play to the level of their opponents. Never was this more true than during this homestand, with the Orlando Magic beating the last two Western Conference champions in the Golden State Warriors and Phoenix Suns and also the Luka Doncic-inspired Dallas Mavericks.
Around those highs, came losses to the still-meh (but improving) Sacramento Kings, the rebuilding Houston Rockets, a poor Charlotte Hornets group that did get LaMelo Ball back (he’s gone again), and the Minnesota Timberwolves. The latter having real issues in making Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns co-exist early this seaosn.
The good news is that three of those losses were all by single digits. The bad news is that the Magic lost all of these games in the first place.
The display against the Hornets in particular dredged up bad memories from the past. There was no energy, no enthusiasm and no desire to beat their opponents at home. It felt like everybody just assumed they’d pull out the win.
They did not, and this is an unacceptable level of play for one of the five youngest rosters in the league.
Playing with pace and energy should be a minimum requirement, and it is if the Magic want to make the playoffs one day soon. Head coach Jamahl Mosley could have looked to an energizer such as Kevon Harris more for that game, but he only played 11 minutes.
You can bet that when the Orlando Magic venture out onto the road again (the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers away from Amway Center are up next for them), they will begin both games with more energy.
Learning how to manage the expectations of the fans, and also the label of being a good team favored at home, is still something they are far away from handling.
2. Is their identity actually shifting?
Despite some tepid home performances, good news comes in the form of the Magic’s offensive rating.
During the seven-game homestand they ranked sixth in the entire league (114.8 points per 100 possessions). Two of their opponents during that span, the Kings (122.7) and Timberwolves (115) came in higher and both scored more than120 points on the Magic during this timeframe.
This interesting information begs the question: Is the Magic’s identity shifting into a more offensive-minded one? It should not because Jamahl Mosley has always preached solid defensive foundations and has the players to achieve this. Jalen Suggs is now an above-average defender, and Bol Bol, Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba make the paint a nightmare for opponents.
Yet the Magic ranked 25th in the league defensively (115.7 points allowed per 100 possessions) in those seven games, which is simply unacceptable.
Yet to pull out three wins against quality opponents despite being that awful defensively, means that the onus could be naturally shifting towards outscoring opponents. In a way this makes sense, it is not hyperbole to say Paolo Banchero is already one of the 30 best offensive players in the league.
Franz Wagner is an excellent second option, while the length of their roster allows them to score a lot of points in the paint.
During the last seven games, they have ranked eighth (56.4 percent) in effective field goal percentage. Almost by accident, the Magic have created a roster that can score in so many different ways.
Banchero and Wagner can bail out any possession with a good look, and the bigs are feasting. The group has been above league average in 3-point shooting (36.9 percent) during this home stint, and all of a sudden the gross offensive sets of five years ago feel like a bad dream.
It is not necessarily a positive that Mosley’s blueprint is being moved away from. But it is also no bad thing to be known as an exciting young team that can score. This is something to watch.
1. Are they closer to bottoming out than we think?
We have touched on this subject already, but it is something we will come back to repeatedly over the course of the year. With the Orlando Magic doing little to show they can string wins together and move up the standings in a meaningful way, at what point do they pull the plug and try and get the highest draft pick possible?
The early season over-achievements of the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder have helped the Orlando Magic’s cause here, and we all know that waiting at the NBA Draft Lottery this year is the opportunity to select Victor Wembanyama with the first pick.
The bottom three teams now all get an equal 14-percent chance at that pick, and even when they have been trying to win the Magic have been around that mark.
The fans turn up in their droves to watch Banchero but will have taken comfort in seeing the group get some wins without his talent. They know he is going to be special and yet did not seem too upset that an ankle sprain caused him to miss four games (and counting), as well as lose his grip on the top of the Rookie of the Year standings.
Everybody thought the Magic would be too good to be quite this bad, and yet here we are. Injuries have been a significant reason for the failure to launch, but this is the reality the organization are now living in. If seven games at home is not enough to add some wins, when exactly is that period going to come?
They still have to play the Philadelphia 76ers twice this month, and go to Brooklyn to face the Brooklyn Nets shortly after. There is a tough four-game road trip right before Christmas, and before you know it the All-Star game will be approaching.
Accepting defeat this early in the season is never a good thing, and they shouldn’t do that. But having a real chance at Wembanyama is too great to not take seriously.