The Orlando Magic currently find themselves with a bottom-five record in the NBA, 4-11 through the first 15 games.
This is not wholly unexpected as the team was in a similar spot most of last season and many of the same teams are sitting at the bottom of the standings – notably the Detroit Pistons and Houston Rockets.
But this does not mean there have not been positives.
Paolo Banchero is playing at a historic level for a rookie, Bol Bol has found a comfortable place in the rotation and Jalen Suggs is getting more comfortable running the show.
The growth is there. Unfortunately, the wins are not.
The same issues that have plagued the Magic during the past couple of seasons still remain – youth, injuries and shooting woes.
The Orlando Magic have had some positives early this season. But they are still young and learning how to play and that youth is evident in their shooting numbers.
The Orlando Magic currently possess the third youngest roster in the league, only the Oklahoma City Thunder are younger. Both Houston and Detroit are right there as well. Throughout NBA history, young teams have great potential. But it is tough for it to translate.
As for injuries, the Orlando Magic continue their seemingly legendary run of bad luck. All but two players have missed at least one game due to injury. Three key players – Garry Harris, Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz – have yet to appear in a game this season due to injury. Although Harris is set to make his season debut Friday in Chicago.
Even Paolo Banchero has missed four consecutive games.
This league does not care how young you are or how depleted your starting lineup is. The games keep coming.
The number one thing the Orlando Magic needed to improve on this year was shooting. There is growth in some categories and struggles in others. The numbers tell the story.
Orlando Magic shooting stats
No player over 5.0 3PA per game
The Orlando Magic placed a focus on taking more three-pointers this season. They certainly do not want to be afraid to shoot it.
So far it is a mixed bag.
The simple fact remains, in order to make threes, you need to take threes.
Last season, the Magic improved drastically in three-pointers attempted, ranking 11th in the NBA with 36.9 per game. This was a big improvement on the previous season’s number, attempting almost five more threes per game. Even if the team was not making them at a high rate. The ideas were all there to make 3-point shooting part of the offense.
In the small sample size from this season, the team has slid all the way back down to 27th in the league with 30.3 3-point attempts per game.
The biggest contributor to this is that no individual player on the Magic is attempting more than 5.0 three-pointers per game.
Both Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs are averaging 5.0 3-point attempts per game exactly. Looking around the league, there are actually 77 NBA players attempting more three-pointers per game than the leading player on the Magic.
Orlando has become far more focused on attacking the paint and the rim. The team has not been able to use that to create more 3-point attempts. But this is an area where the Magic should be focused on seeking out more attempts from deep.
The Magic do not have a high-volume knockdown shooter. Most of the top teams in the league have a player on their roster who takes at least 8.0 three-pointers per game and makes better than 40 percent of them.
Is there someone on the Magic who is capable of putting up these types of attempts and knocking them down at a high rate? I would say not right now.
That is simply not Paolo Banchero’s game. The team’s top scorer is not a 3-point shooter. And Franz Wagner has struggled from deep this year, making only 24.5 percent on 3.8 attempts per game. The Magic’s two main drivers and offensive engines are not 3-point shooters.
Terrence Ross shoots a high percentage but does not shoot a high volume — 41.1 percent on 4.3 3-point attempts per game. Cole Anthony could potentially attempt 8.0 per game, but he has not shown the ability to make better than 35 percent of them.
Gary Harris’ anticipated return will give a big boost to the team’s shooting. Harris averaged 38.4 percent shooting on 5.0 3-point attempts per game last year. That should give a momentary boost to the team’s outside opportunities.
Long-term though, the Magic will need their primary attackers not only to set up the outside shot but take some themselves.
The best versions of either Wagner or Banchero would include increased three-point usage. But we have also yet to see them shoot it at an elite percentage.
Orlando Magic shooting stats
Two players under 30% from three
Piggybacking off the previous point, Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero are the Orlando Magic’s future. Both forwards can be used interchangeably, defend all positions and handle the ball like guards.
They are the biggest matchup problems on the team and they have not begun to scratch the surface of their perimeter shooting potential.
Both Wagner and Banchero are shooting worse than 30 percent from three on less than 4.0 attempts per game individually.
This is not to say these young forwards are not dominating. Banchero is averaging 23.5 points per game and shooting better than 52 percent on 2-pointers. Wagner is averaging 18.6 points per game on a scorching 55.7 percent on twos.
They have been to get to the rim at will and have even found some space in the mid-range.
I note these numbers because I see them as a positive. Banchero and Wagner will not stay cold from deep for long.
Last season, Wagner shot 35.4 percent on 3.4 3-point attempts per game. He was still able to average better than 15 points per game with just more than 1.0 3-point makes per game. If Wagner found a way to attempt just a couple more threes per game and hit two of them, he would be even more dominant.
Banchero is a similar story. He has shown the ability to take and make threes and he has a smooth stroke. Even at Duke, he found or created the space to shoot it at a decent clip.
Becoming above-average three-point shooters would take Wagner and Banchero from great into a new class of elite. It could also open better offensive opportunities for the rest of the Magic.
Orlando Magic shooting stats
47.5 percent from the field as a team
The Orlando Magic have a 47.5-percent field goal percentage – ninth in the league.
Coming off bottom three finishes in the previous two seasons, this is something to celebrate. In 2021, the Magic were last in the league in field goal percentage at 42.9 percent.
Simply put, the Magic are getting better shots this season and making them. This increase is likely due to the location of these shots as the Magic are getting to rim at their best rate in years. They are also now in the top five in free throw rate after languishing in the bottom five for the last decade since Dwight Howard left.
For the season, the Denver Nuggets lead the league at 50 percent from the field and the Boston Celtics are not far behind them. Good teams shoot a good percentage.
This number is noteworthy because it says one of two things – the Orlando Magic are winning at a high rate due to their defensive efforts or they are not getting enough shots up.
It looks like it is both. The team ranks 24th in defensive rating and 21st in pace. They are also 24th in the league in total field goals attempted.
These numbers are surely things the coaching staff is addressing because they are continuing to place an emphasis on playing with pace and playing defense.
The Magic’s shot diet is very different too. Three-pointers are down, but the team’s shots are up in the paint in the next area of efficiency. The high field goal percentage though has not translated fully into better offense.
If the team picks up its pace, the total field goal percentage may drop. But the tradeoff will be worth it in the end.
Young teams are always growing and evolving and we likely will not know the Magic have going for them until we see the full rotation.
The team has a little bit of time. But in order to really compete in the future, a couple of current players will need to develop into consistent shooters or the front office will need to address it through trades or free agency.