The Orlando Magic are in the middle of a seven-game homestand, with three of those games already in the books. They have picked up one win in that span, over the reeling Golden State Warriors, to begin their stint in the Amway Center.
Losses to the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets followed, with the latter of those games an entertaining affair that saw the Magic lose by seven points.
The hope was that the organization could flirt with the play-in this season. But that quest has not gained any momentum. Instead, there are positives to consider from potentially bottoming out one last time.
There is no doubt this homestand for the Orlando Magic that promised the opportunity to get some wins on the board has fallen flat on its face. It is a concern for a young team and its growth.
Head coach Jamahl Mosley clearly has a bench problem. As has so often been the case for the Magic, injuries have disrupted their attempts to build cohesion and chemistry.
The bones of a postseason group look to be in place. But the top-end talent they have is just not enough to win on most nights currently.
With four more games at home before heading to Chicago to face the Chicago Bulls on Nov. 18, here are three problem areas for the organization right now. Not everything here is an easy fix, and if anything only serves to highlight the true lengths still left to cover before they can be considered a competitive team again.
3. Scoring is not equating to winning
With the roster the Orlando Magic have, it looks like building a solid defensive base will be their identity as this group improves together.
Yet it is undeniable both Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have excellent offensive games already. Banchero leads all rookies in points per game (23.5). While Wagner’s cutting and movement have gone up a level so far this season.
As hard as it may be to believe, the Magic have actually led the entire NBA in scoring since their homestand began. Their 126.7 points per contest is way ahead of the Boston Celtics in third place, who have averaged 121.7. Mosley has to be thrilled by this, especially given the Magic rank 19th in offensive rating (110.3) on the season as a whole.
But where this becomes a negative is the inescapable fact that piling up points on the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets did not lead to wins.
The Magic have had literally the highest scoring output in the league over the course of their last three games and it has led to a single win. In that win against the Warriors, they had to come back from 16 points down to carve out a one-point victory.
Showing heart to do this is excellent. But the team should not have gotten down that bad in the first place. Most worrying of all though is that there is no way the Magic will be able to continue this offensive output for the rest of the season.
The “easy” part of the homestand is also in the rearview mirror. The remainder of their home games will be against the Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, Charlotte Hornets and Minnesota Timberwolves. The Suns and Mavericks boast two of the top five defensive ratings in the league, while the Timberwolves are league-average and have Rudy Gobert in their ranks.
So the scoring is sure to come down, and what will happen then? If putting up huge scores did not lead to winning against lesser teams, how can they hope to pick up more wins for the rest of this homestand and beyond?
2. The rotations are not clicking
It is hard at this stage of the season to have your ideal starting five and preferred rotations cast in stone. But the Orlando Magic are a long way off even having the correct foundations in place. Too often already it has felt like Mosley has been throwing stuff at the wall to see what works.
A lot of the time, nothing has been sticking.
If not for Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and the emergence of Jalen Suggs, where would this group truly be?
Cole Anthony was having a positive impact before going down with injury. And Markelle Fultz has not been seen yet after fracturing his toe just before training camp. But beyond these key players that are very obviously going to start and get plenty of minutes, what else do the Magic have cooking?
This is a worry because they do have a modest amount of depth with the squad that is in place, but it is not coming together.
Some nights Mosley is riding Suggs a lot, and this only seems to be increasing as he proves he can handle the load. Kevon Harris provides some defensive intensity. But after a great performance in 21 minutes in the win over the Golden State Warriors, his time on the court has dwindled in both games that followed.
R.J. Hampton also had a nice game against the Warriors, finishing with 15 points and three made 3-pointers from five taken. The Magic have a lack of depth in the backcourt, yet two games later against the Houston Rockets, Hampton did not see the court at all.
Caleb Houstan is by no means a bad player, but it feels like he is coming in at random intervals to see if he can do something. Anything.
It has not all been bad. But even the positive developments of Bol Bol have come at a cost. His arrival clearly lit a fire under Mo Bamba, and he too is contributing on a nightly basis now.
But alongside Wendell Carter, the best big man of the three, the Magic have three guys who cannot all be on the court at the same time. This has created an imbalance in the rotations, and it will take more time and the return of others to rectify this worrying situation.
1. The over-reliance on Paolo Banchero
Paolo Banchero already looks destined to win Rookie of the Year and is so good at 19 years old that he could make the All-Star game this year. But in November (which takes in the three-game homestand and game in Oklahoma City against the Oklahoma City Thunder), Banchero is averaging a whopping 37.3 minutes per night.
That number would put him comfortably in the top 10 across the whole league if it were to continue.
You can understand why the organization is doing this, especially during a long stint at home. Banchero is exciting, marketable and the best prospect they have had since they drafted Dwight Howard in 2004. Fans are coming to Amway Center already solely to witness him play, selling out three of the team’s first four home games (do not expect one Wednesday night against the Dallas Mavericks thanks to the early start to prepare for Tropical Storm Nicole).
But the other side of that coin is the Magic will wear Banchero down quickly if they continue to lean on him to this degree.
Unsurprisingly Banchero leads the Magic in minutes per game (34.6), two-point field goal attempts (13.6) and usage (30.0, with the injured Anthony second at 23.8).
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Pretty much every rookie hits a wall at some point, and you can be sure that will happen to Banchero too.
As well as being marketable, he is already one of the 30 best offensive players in the league based on this season’s play, which is a remarkable sentence to see written down when you really think about it. He keeps the Magic in games, and looks fantastic doing it.
The problem is, even that is not enough to pull out wins most of the time.
So the franchise needs to think about easing up on Banchero a bit, and soon. He appears durable and happy to play as often as he’s needed (although he is QUESTIONABLE for Wednesday’s game after tweaking is ankle in Monday’s game against the Houston Rockets).
But at some point, this could become counter-productive to the future of the Magic. Perhaps Wagner can take the reins a bit more for the next four games, to give Banchero a deserved breather.