Paolo Banchero is now the face of the Orlando Magic.
An anonymous franchise for the better part of a decade now has a clear face and someone who will command that national attention.
Orlando has amassed delightful auxiliary pieces with Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter and Jalen Suggs. Now, they have their engine.
What makes Banchero successful? How will the Magic use him? Those are the questions that will drive a lot of the offseason conversation and planning from coach Jamahl Mosley. Mosley said the team does not run a lot of pure sets, relying on players reading and reacting to the defense to find advantages.
The Magic will learn what they can from how Duke used him in college while also looking to unlock new ways for him to play.
The Orlando Magic added a centerpiece player in Paolo Banchero. Now the team has to unlock the best way to use him as they grow their team.
Banchero carried a heavy pedigree heading into his freshman season ranking No. 2 in RSCI (Recruiting Services Consensus Index). He responded by leading Duke to the Final Four, by being named a Second Team All-American and by becoming one of two freshmen in the history of NCAA basketball to have 600 points, 300 rebounds and 100 assists.
The Other? Former first overall pick Ben Simmons.
Duke had five players selected in the first 42 picks of the 2022 NBA Draft. Banchero quickly rose to the top of this talent-packed, but relatively ill-fitting group. He carried a heavy offensive burden leading the team in field goal attempts with 13.2 per game (Trevor Keels was second with 9.6 per game) and a usage rate of 27.5-percent.
Banchero’s empty-the-clip mentality was distinct from the opening tip.
When you play him, you feel him. Every possession. Compared to other jumbo-ball handling wings— Ben Simmons, LeBron James, Luka Doncic — he possesses a more score-first mentality.
Shot distribution
Duke empowered Paolo Banchero to create from the perimeter and mid-post as well as a decision-maker on the short-roll. This varied usage paired with his gifted ball-handling and self-creation, ambidextrousness and diverse shot diet resulted in an exceptionally balanced shot chart.
He took a little more than a quarter of his shot attempts (25.3-percent) from three. He took 22.9-percent of his shos from the mid-range and 51.8-percent of his shots in the paint — including 25.1-percent of those at the rim).
From deep, Banchero liked to shoot above the break, with 39-percent of his 3-point attempts coming from the top of the key.
This level of distributive scoring balance is nearly unachievable and wholly unique to Banchero at the top of this class.
At the next level, this skill is a crucial separator for those who succeed in a playoff/end-of-shot-clock setting where teams hope to shut off the faucet.
Frankly, Banchero does not have a single spot to shut off. Most players have counters, but everywhere is his go-to.
His shooting efficiency must continue to improve. His mechanics are typically pretty to watch, but he does have a bit of a mechanical breakdown when he is shooting longer threes. He looks mildly uncomfortable from beyond 25 feet.
Correcting this and instilling confidence will be a focal point for Orlando’s player development team because with an improved shooting output Banchero’s ceiling is astronomical.
Paolo Banchero: Orlando Magic’s new offensive engine
Mid-Post Artistry
Paolo Banchero’s work out of the mid-post is as artful as it is brutal.
He pairs ballerina-like footwork with tank-like physicality. Merging these traits with excellent ballhandling, stutter-rip game, quick step fakes and a pull-up threat endows him with sun-esque scoring gravity.
There was room for growth in these situations as Banchero did often get stymied by larger defenders who could match him physically. At times, he was over-reliant on bully-ball and when that was not moving the needle and his mid-range game was not falling, he was rendered inefficient on the ball.
His first step is elite for his size, but not elite for a primary ball-handler. He was forced to spin back on many of his drives— often quite effectively — like Pascal Siakam. This is a concern at the next level because it is more difficult to collapse defenses and draw fouls consistently when you are beaten to your initial spot.
Much of Banchero’s playmaking is predicated on his incredible scoring ability, so slimming down slightly in exchange for a bit more burst will help Banchero in the long run.
Banchero is also quite nice off-ball and is exquisite in transition and secondary break. He will look lightyears better in these aspects on an NBA floor.
The passing ecosystem at Duke was a bit gnarly. There are many instances of Banchero excellently cutting, sealing or establishing a deep post position against switches and the ball never finds his hands.
This will change with the Orlando Magic. Orlando has a plethora of quality interior passers and playmakers. Banchero will be able to eat and eat well.
Banchero is also an absolute runaway freight train in transition, something Orlando desperately needs. He was always labeled the most dangerous man off a rebound and he was an automatic bucket in 2-on-1 situations — almost always executing a beautiful give-and-go resulting in an explosive alley-oop.
He has limitless grab-and-go facilities and will form a god-tier synergy with Markelle Fultz on the break. Banchero’s conditioning will need to improve to fully capitalize on his ability as an off-ball and transition player, but this will happen if he truly desires to be great.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xia1qZUEq3E
Passing Potential
Early season play spawned a critical conversation about Banchero’s unwillingness or inability to pass. Through great improvement — and simply watching the tape — Banchero beat the ball-hog allegations. In fact, he established himself as possibly the best passer in the class, incredible at his size.
It cannot be overstated how gifted of a playmaker he is at his size. He is the same height and weight as Dwight Howard — keep that in mind when watching him.
Right now, Banchero is not a full-on offensive conductor, but he is a lead member of the orchestra. President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman recently stated on the Ryen Russillo Podcast that by Orlando’s metrics, Banchero ranked in the 90th percentile in both creating shots for himself and creating shots for others.
These are directly proportional.
His scoring gravity will be his greatest playmaking asset. He forces teams to load the ball — where all help defenders get in position on the strong side forming a defensive wall, leaving the skip pass to the weak side corner open (A.J. Griffin plans to send thank-you notes to Paolo Banchero each time his paycheck cashes).
Banchero was reluctant to hit this pass early in the season, but he grew into it and projects to become excellent at it.
Where Banchero’s playing truly thrives though is his interior and short-roll passing. There are zero prospects in this draft who can hit cutters like Banchero. He attracts so much attention and is legitimately gifted and creative at finding his teammates when they are active off-ball.
He uses his huge frame to pass over defenses and create angles that are only available to him.
This disproportionally bends defenses and causes fractures along seams that typically do not exist.
Pairing this ability with the current Magic personnel will be a phantasmagoric experience. Attempting to reconcile Franz Wagner’s celestially brilliant cutting ability with Paolo Banchero’s elegant interior passing will make opposing coaches break out in hives.
Banchero needs to continue to improve his passing. He could be a much better entry-passer, especially since his size should allow him to create easy angles. He also is not particularly excellent yet at manipulating defenses with his passing and hitting crisp pocket passes to rollers, typically opting for a more over-the-top approach.
These will come in time. He possesses the IQ, feel, vision, and coordination which are the less-teachable aspects of playmaking.
Duke’s offense severely lacked the creativity to fully unlock Banchero’s playmaking abilities. There were limited dribble hand-offs and smaller players setting picks for Banchero.
This will also change in the pros.
Wagner and Banchero will set screens for each other, putting defenses in a real bind if they do not have multiple huge wing defenders. Throw Wendell Carter’s spacing and passing into the mix and this front court is already one of the most gifted and versatile in the entire NBA.
Orlando’s backcourt severely lacking shooting will be a limiting factor on this team’s ceiling. While having three bigs who can all shoot relatively well allows for one non-shooter at guard, it is untenable to maintain a quality NBA offense with two non-shooters at guard.
Orlando needs to pray for shooting improvement or look for it outside of the current roster. That is an OK spot to be in. Ultimately, you can find shooting in free agency. You cannot find under 21, 6-foot-10, self-creating, playmaking, three-level scoring, apex-predator wings.
Orlando now has two.
Paolo Banchero: Orlando Magic’s new offensive engine
Defensive Improvement
Paolo Banchero’s defense has been the subject of ire by many.
This is somewhat understandable because he possessed a relatively sleepy attitude on that end. Pair that with his subpar rim deterrence for his size and there are absolutely some legitimate concerns.
That being said, his defensive woes are way overblown. How many instances of super toolsy, big-bodied, high-usage wings who struggle defensively in college only to become excellent defenders in the NBA do we need to see? Ben Simmons and Jayson Tatum faced very similar critiques of their defensive abilities in college only to become elite two-way players.
You often need to examine the tools and not always the effort — though effort is a skill — because the NBA typically extracts effort from players as they mature past their 18-year-old seasons.
Banchero displayed real ability to switch onto guards and thrive with mostly quick feet, especially for his size. He turned it up in big games and showed he can produce some nice late peel-back blocks and sometimes displayed active hands in passing lanes.
There is genuine growth to be had here and his defensive versatility is slightly limited. In a perfect world, he would be able to be a point-center, but that world will likely never exist due to his limitations as an interior defender.
He also needs to improve his K.B.I.F (keep ball in front) ability, as he was a bit soft in letting wings glide by him instead of beating them to the spot. He struggled to execute open and through actions where he was supposed to stick on a cutter and lock in on them through the next screen they set.
In this action, you should shoot the gap by sliding through between the screener and your teammate who opens up, cutting off the ballhandler and allowing for the primary defender to recover.
Banchero would often bail on the screener or shoot the gap softly resulting in easy buckets. This is just one example of many “lazy” defensive habits that Banchero dabbled in.
Thankfully, the Orlando Magic have a near-perfect defensive infrastructure for Banchero to slot into. Wendell Carter’s continued growth as a rim protector will be what vaults Orlando’s defensive ceiling into the stratosphere.
Banchero can simply work on locking into and tagging cutters, pre-rotation and corralling wings. If he continues to slim down and work on his explosiveness there is a legitimate defensive ceiling here as a jumbo-wing point-of-attack defender. His feet and mentality must take a jump, but those are both extremely achievable through coaching and physical/mental maturity that comes with age and reps.
Banchero is a gifted prospect with the highest offensive ceiling in the draft. With expected improvement in shooting efficiency, passing versatility and defensive motor, he has crystal clear All-NBA upside.
He should not be penalized for how polished he is because there is plenty of room to grow — he just has a head start.
While other prospects will be working on the basics of their ball-handling, Banchero will be perfecting his craft and adding dynamic dribble moves. While other prospects will be working on their spot-ups, Banchero will be adding to his movement shooting and shooting off the bounce.
While other prospects will cross their fingers and hope they can add weight or increase their agility and wiggle, Banchero will focus on building on his already explosive set of physical traits.
The Magic are dynamic and exciting for the first time in ages and Banchero is the right man for the job of leading this team into the national stage.