Well, we are finally here.
The handwringing of a month of waiting in one of the most unique draft choices the league has seen in some time is drawing to an end.
The Orlando Magic have been on the clock for all that time and they seem nearly finished with their pre-draft preparations. This week will not be about interviewing or visiting the prospects. This week is about drilling down on the team’s needs, the opportunities they have in front of them and preparing the information they will need on draft night to make their final decision.
It is indeed crunch time. And all the debates and questions everyone has about what the Magic will do will be answered shortly.
The debate at the top is far from simple. The consensus top three in this draft all have plenty working for and against them. For every good reason someone comes up with to draft any of these three players, it is easy to poke a hole and find a reason not to go with them. Or go with someone else.
What should be clear is that there is a good reason to pick any of the three top players. The Magic have to go through their process and ultimately make the right decision for them.
The NBA Draft is here. The Orlando Magic are on the clock. It is time for one final deep dive into the draft as a whole as we wait for the real thing.
The betting odds are that Orlando has narrowed things down to Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren. It is increasingly looking less likely the Magic take Paolo Banchero.
But it is decision time now. The Magic are on the clock and it is ticking ever closer to zero. Orlando will have to make its bed and lie in it.
With the first pick, they have every option ahead of them and control their own destiny. It is time for a deeper dive into the draft order and what may happen.
In this final edition of our mock draft, we are going to make our official pick for the Magic, address team needs and pinpoint potential deals the Magic could make to move around in this draft.
As always, it is anybody’s guess what the Magic or any team will do. But this should give a picture of how things might play out Thursday while also giving a good summary of the prospects in this draft one final time.
Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0
The First Pick
There is no getting around this. These are difficult decisions for the Orlando Magic.
There is no runaway pick for the Magic at No. 1. This is very different than most drafts. Usually, this is the easiest decision in the draft.
Orlando finds itself with the first pick in a draft that many consider has solid but not necessarily franchise-changing players and three players who are all on virtually the same tier. This is not an easy call.
It is no wonder everyone has looked for every tiny morsel of information to figure out what the Magic are going to end up doing.
As I have posited, the real issue for the Magic is not trying to decide which player they should take. The real question is trying to figure out which kind of team they want to build.
Everything Orlando does now — especially this first overall pick — has to be built with an eye toward the team it will ultimately be when it is competing for a playoff spot.
So what kind of team do the Magic want to be?
We know Orlando values versatility. We know Orlando values defense and defensive intensity. We know coach Jamahl Mosley has his precepts — play with pace, space and the pass on offense and together, toughness and talking on defense.
To me, what the Magic are looking for is Jabari Smith, Jr. He embodies all the things the Magic have talked about for the last year.
They need the shooting he can provide and his defensive acumen is exactly the kind of thing the Magic have tried to build their team around. He may not be the primary scorer or creator the Magic have needed, but Smith can possibly get there as he improves his handle. He is deadly efficient with his dribble and capable of hitting shots over anyone.
It is the combination of all these tools that make him so promising. If he is just what he promises to be today at a baseline, that will still be a good player that opens up everything for other players on the Magic’s roster.
It is important to remember he is still young enough to get better.
Of the three prospects at the top of this draft, Smith likely has the highest floor just as much as he has the highest ceiling. And that is ultimately what the Magic are chasing.
They are chasing a player who checks all their boxes, makes the team better in the near- and long-term and who gives them the best chance to make a splash in the NBA.
That choice is narrow for sure. But Smith gives them their best chance to be the team they always envisioned.
Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0
The Other Top Options
The Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City are certainly in a bit of a game of chicken. There is every public indication right now that they are targeting Chet Holmgren. And Holmgren seems pretty set on going to Oklahoma City.
Holmgren is one of the most divisive figures in this draft. People either believe in him or they do not at this point. But one thing everyone should agree on is that he is the biggest swing in this draft. And that is why he should be in consideration for the No. 1 pick.
If there is a chance at a truly generational, superstar talent, it is Holmgren.
There are just not any 7-footers who move the way he can move, shoot from the outside and defend the paint. He is the evolution of the unicorn revolution that Kristaps Porzingis promised to usher in.
Holmgren is brilliant off the dribble for a player his size. It is truly unique.
This may be where centers are going — a combination of Kristaps Porzingis’ versatility with Nikola Jokic’s playmaking. Holmgren is not quite there. But there is a new wave of unicorns coming through.
Holmgren is potentially that special. There is no denying this. But the questions still persist. Particularly about his size and weight to play the center position.
Whoever drafts him will be particularly invested in his growth and building the team that makes the most of what makes him special. While also hoping there are no setbacks in the process. It is a big swing.
Oklahoma City has long sought these rangy versatile players. It has become something of an open secret that Sam Presti covets Chet Holmgren. Maybe this is where Oklahoma City finally starts to take their step forward.
Paolo Banchero has quickly become the late riser in the NBA Draft. Who knew?
The betting markets suddenly started to like Banchero as his number went from a distant +1600 on Sunday to +900 Monday morning to +400 by Monday night. Somebody was putting a lot of money on Banchero to be the top pick.
In some respects, it makes sense. Banchero is perhaps the best scorer in this draft. Simply put, you can give him the ball on the block and he can get a basket. That is really valuable. And Banchero might be the favorite to be rookie of the year. He is going to put up numbers.
But ultimately, Banchero is not the pick because his game could be quite limiting. And he is going to force the team that drafts him to play a very specific style.
There is nothing wrong with that. If a team believes Banchero can be that top scorer to build an offense around, they should take him. But if that were the case universally than Banchero would be the runaway first pick.
Everything about the way the Orlando Magic are trying to build screams that Banchero is not the guy they want to build around.
They had one of the fewest isolation possessions per game in the league last year. They have spoken openly about playing a more motion-based, passing-based offense.
It is not that Banchero is not a good passer — he is a much better passer than he gets credit for — but that is not why you are drafting him.
Then you get to the Magic’s penchant and focus on building a defensive identity. Banchero is a better defender than he gets credit for, but he is not a good defender. And his lack of versatility on that end is likely the final nail in the coffin.
I am not a huge fan of his fit with the Houston Rockets. But they are enough of a blank slate that they can have two ball-dominant wings with Jalen Green to try and grow and develop them. It sure sounds like the Rockets have Banchero in their sights.
Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0
The Best of the Lottery
The Sacramento Kings do not need Jaden Ivey. They are loaded at guard with De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell spearheading one of the best offenses in the league. Drafting and keeping Ivey would probably mean the Kings are done with Fox.
Ivey is a dynamic scorer and attacker at the basket. But I feel like he has a lot more to gain as a playmaker and especially as a shooter. I am significantly lower on him than everyone else.
But this is a pick ripe to be traded. Sacramento is looking for more veteran help so they can make that final push over the top and back into the playoffs. Still makes everyone wonder why Sacramento made its move in February with the Indiana Pacers.
Keegan Murray is a guy I have had my eye on for a long time. And apparently, so have the Orlando Magic, having met with him at several points of contact. And there is a lot to like. He has good size and is a capable defender at either forward spot. He is a great 3-point shooter and has good athleticism to finish at the basket.
In Detroit with the Detroit Pistons, Murray could slot in alongside Cade Cunningham and Saddiq Bey, giving them a killer offensive backcourt. Murray can play some power forward, but he would likely not be a permanent replacement for Jerami Grant, dealt to the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday.
Dyson Daniels has emerged as the best of the prospects from the G-League Ignite this year. He gives the Indiana Pacers a good guard to score and play off of Tyrese Haliburton as the Pacers continue to remake their roster.
A.J. Griffin has a lot of tools in his toolbox for sure. He can hit from the outside and score a little bit off the dribble. He is the perfect complement to spread the floor for Damian Lillard. He has the defensive tools but is still a bit lacking. There is a lot to like about Griffin, but not a lot of impressive things. This is a pick that is ripe to be traded.
Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0
The Rest of the Lottery
Bennedict Mathurin is a good wing that has a lot of raw tools that have coalesced very quickly. He could be a really dynamic player. For the New Orleans Pelicans, he would help their defense tremendously, giving them a willing defender for every wing position. His 3-point shot has come a long way and he would do well with the space the Pelicans’ main attackers create.
It has been a while since the San Antonio Spurs have had a top-10 pick. But they will go with someone that fits their ethos. I go with Baylor’s Jeremy Sochan. He is a good intangible player, able to defend and finish around the basket. the kind of player the Spurs feel like they can mold.
Shaedon Sharpe is the mystery man of this draft. He may end up being he best player in this group. He is that talented. But everything seems to be full of contradictions — some reports say his workouts have gone horribly, others say he has done fine.
When you get down to it, Sharpe has all the tools a modern wing is supposed to have. He has the ability to explode to the basket quickly. He can get to his spots and score. And he has good range.
It is just nobody has seen it played at the intermediary level between the dominant athleticism of high school and the extreme detail of the NBA. Not playing at college is a major question mark.
The Washington Wizards have to start planning for either surrounding Bradley Beal with some real talent or to start planning for life without Beal. Sharpe may give Washington the best chance for both.
At one point, Johnny Davis felt like a surefire top-10 pick. He was a dominant scorer at Wisconsin able to hit off the dribble and from all three levels. Then he got hurt and struggled to find his footing. And when he hit rock bottom, he hit rock bottom. Davis would give the New York Knicks another scorer to help try to spread the floor and attack. But the whole team seems a bit lost like Davis was late in the season.
Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0
The Middle of the Draft
The one thing this draft seems short on is perimeter shooting. The one skill that is most valuable in this league. Shooting is always at a premium. Malaki Branham made 41.6-percent of his 3-pointers and 83.3-percent of his free throws. Branham is the perfect pick for this stage of the draft and would give the growing Thunder some important shooting to start the climb out of the basement.
The Charlotte Hornets have been in a never-ending quest for a center. It seems like every year they are looking for that defensive anchor. Considering Mike D’Antoni is about to become the coach (maybe), the Hornets may not need a traditional center.
Nevertheless, Mark Williams is a strong center prospect to run with LaMelo Ball and their high-powered offense. He has an incredible wingspan and good defensive instincts. He can block shots and finish at the rim. He may not have much else offensively, but he is a great pick and roll partner.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have to be thinking about pushing some chips in. They were knocking on the door for a playoff spot and fell short in the Play-In Tournament. Getting a veteran wing like Ochai Agabaji who can fit in defensively and hit from the outside would be a valuable chip for Cleveland.
Ousmane Dieng is one of the more interesting prospects in this draft. He was a 6-foot-10 point forward. He came on strong to end the season for the New Zealand Breakers after struggling to start the year. He has the dynamic athletic ability to get into the paint and finish with the basket. He just needs to improve the other aspects of his game. He would work really well in Charlotte’s wide-open style.
Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0
Start your trades
Tari Eason is a versatile forward who showed good defensive acumen and the potential to grow his offensive game. Jeremy Sochan has passed him in terms of versatile fours. Watch this pick to be on the move though. The Atlanta Hawks need veteran help to shake up and move their roster forward. Whether they stick with John Collins and De’Andre Hunter or move somewhere, filling in some defense would help them.
Jalen Williams has been the biggest riser of this draft. The 6-foot-6 guard really zoomed up boards with a strong junior year at Santa Clara and a good showing at the Combine. He is good at getting to the basket and has some playmaking skill. A good young player to add to any team (regardless of what the Houston Rockets do with this pick).
The Chicago Bulls have the biggest intrigue at this spot in the draft. They are heavily reported to be ready to trade this pick along with Nikola Vucevic and Patrick Williams to acquire Rudy Gobert. This pick is very much in play (although I would doubt the Chicago Bulls want anything to do with the Orlando Magic).
These picks are about the range that trades will happen.
No matter whether this pick ends up with Utah or Chicago, both teams need a steady hand and someone who will provide consistency. That is where Christian Braun and his championship experience should fit in. He works hard defensively to overcome his physical shortcomings and he looks like his shooting will translate to the NBA.
Kennedy Chandler is a really interesting prospect. He is dynamic getting to the basket and can hit a bit from the outside — 38.3-percent. Chandler is great finishing at the rim. But all the other parts of his game are huge question marks. He is 6-feet tall and is just small for the guard position despite all his efforts defensively. His poor free throw percentage — 60.6-percent! — is not a good harbinger of his ability to hit from deep.
Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0
Serious Trade Targets
Trevor Keels runs very hot or very cold. That is just the nature of his time with Duke. Keels averaged 11.5 points per game and shot 31.2-percent from beyond the arc overall. Not exactly the greatest numbers.
But in ACC play, Keels averaged 12.0 points per game on 35.3-percent shooting from deep. He had games where he hit five 3-pointers and five games with more than three 3-pointers. He had several-game stretches where he was in rhythm.
That is what teams are betting on. He has good size even at 6-foot-4 to defend too. That makes him attractive. Keep your eye on Keels if he is available in the second round as a potential target for the Magic.
Kentucky guard TyTy Washington showed a ton of athleticism in his ability to finish around the basket. He could break through and have some big games. He really started to come into his own later in the season, showing general improvement — averaging 15.7 points per game and 37.9-percent shooting (42.9-percent from deep) in three SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament games against 12.5 points per game and 45.1-percent shooting from the field for the whole season.
Washington has to improve as a playmaker, especially at his size, and continue to improve as a shooter. But fitting in with a team like the Denver Nuggets with other playmakers and scorers should help.
Start to watch for potential trades for the Orlando Magic at this stage of the draft. I have the Memphis Grizzlies as a potential target for the team to find Terrence Ross a new home.
Figuring out who to target is the challenge (more on that in a bit).
For now, the Grizzlies should be looking for more toughness and defense. And they find that in E.J. Liddell. He averaged 19.4 points per game and was named to the Big Ten’s All-Defensive team. He is a bit undersized as a power forward at 6-foot-7. So his ultimate success in the NBA may depend on whether he can develop as a shooter.
Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0
As the wheel turns
The No. 23 pick will be the big one for the Orlando Magic. It is widely understood around the league it seems that Philadelphia is looking to make a deal. They need to add some shooting and try to move some contracts around. Danny Green (a non-guaranteed deal), Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle all seem available.
If the Magic are going to move up in this draft, this is the pick I would target. I would be trying to move Ross to this team — and he would help the 76ers add some much-needed shooting. Green’s contract matches and the team could easily cut him. They could also make the move for a wing like Thybulle, but that would take some additional math.
If Orlando is moving up, I would target Nebraska’s Bryce McGowens. He is an incredibly gifted scorer who is able to get to the basket and draw fouls well. He had a free throw rate of 49.1-percent (essentially taking one free throw for every two field goal attempts).
Nebraska was bad last year. No getting around that. And part of the reason why was because McGowens had to be the main scorer. That should not be his role.
His success will be determined by whether he can work off the ball, make catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and improve his focus on defense.
Dalen Terry was a late riser in this draft after a strong showing a the Combine. The Arizona guard averaged just 8.0 points per game and 3.9 assists per game. he shot 50.2-percent on 6.2 field goal attempts per game. there just was not a lot of usage from the 6-foot-7 guard.
But he has the confidence, competitiveness and physicality to make it. He measured at the NBA Draft Combine with a 7-foot-0.75 wingspan. That turned plenty of heads and he just carries himself like he is going to be an NBA player.
Whoever drafts him will need some patience. But this could be another player the Orlando Magic target if they are trying to trade up. If he even lasts this long.
Walker Kessler was an incredible statistical machine at Auburn. He averaged 11.4 points, 8.4 rebounds and 4.6 blocks per game. He recorded a triple-double this year with blocks in a college game. That is a testament to his size and his ability to use his body to wall off the paint.
But his NBA future is really hard to figure out. He does not have any offensive game outside the paint and is not going to do much more than simple hooks and putbacks. His mobility on the perimeter will come into question too.
Picking Kessler will be about balancing a ton of issues.
Orlando Magic Daily 2022 NBA Mock Draft 3.0
The Back End
The Dallas Mavericks will be picking for the Houston Rockets here as part of the Christian Wood trade reported last week. And the Rockets could use this on a fairly big swing.
Nikola Jovic is a really interesting prospect as a 6-foot-10 forward who can playmake some and score off the dribble. His shot is still a bit of a work in progress but is certainly more than promising. He is a very skilled player. Someone worth some investment in.
There are still plenty of questions though. He was terrible defensively on the ball. But some of that might have been because he was used largely as a guard. He should not be defending guards in space. But Jovic has a lot of unrefined tools that could be pointed in the right direction very easily.
Jake LaRavia is another one of those players who seems like he will be a good culture fit with a winning team. He is a guy who thrives defensively and has developed into a good enough shooter to get defenses to be honest. LaRavia is solid because he just rules on defensive positioning and getting into passing lanes and creating some havoc.
Blake Wesley was a solid scorer for Notre Dame who showed hints of his ability to fit into a role as he moves off the ball. He averaged 14.4 points per game. There is a lot more to see in Wesley though. His 3-point shooting could still stand to improve, but he has the tools to make it if things break right.
The Golden State Warriors appear set to try to sell this pick — they do not need more guaranteed contracts. This could be another opportunity for the Magic to move up. Wesley is not who I would target here though. I would be looking at one of the centers — Jaylin Williams, Khalifa Diop, Chrisitan Koloko or Ismael Kamagate.
Of those centers mentioned above, Arizona’s Christian Koloko is the best. He could well become a solid backup center in the league. He plays with good energy and is able to rebound and defend.
Koloko averaged 12.6 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game, taking home the Pac-12’s Most Improved Player award and an All-Defensive team nod. Those were all good signs for the way he improved and got better through the course of his three years at Arizona.
The question is just how much better will he get and will he be up to the challenge in the NBA.
Someone is going to take their chance on Jaden Hardy. He entered the season as the best of the prospects in the G-League Ignite class of 2022. He leaves with a lot of questions.
He had the green light to shoot and he shot a lot. And not particularly well. But that is what the G-League Ignite is for. They let him explore the boundaries of his game and he started to figure some things out. Some more time and development will help.
Jaylin Williams is an interesting prospect because he does not really fit any mold. Williams is a long center at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan who relies more on positioning and taking charges than he does as a shot-blocker. He has the makeups of a great athlete, but he lacks a lot of the athleticism you would normally see from a center of his type.
Williams led the nation in charges last year. So there is a place for his energy and effort. But his offensive game will be limited unless he can further develop a jumper that he is at least willing to take.
The Orlando Magic might as well go back to the Michigan well here and grab Caleb Houstan. He may not even be here at No. 32 by the time the Magic pick. Houstan is starting to gain traction to go much higher in this draft.
Houstan averaged 10.1 points per game and 4.0 rebounds per game. His real breakthrough came in the FIBA U19 tournament last summer when he helped Canada earn a bronze medal.
Houstan had a really inconsistent season. He struggled to get himself going at Michigan. But he can be a solid shooter and an athletic finisher. There is still a lot to like about him.
David Roddy is an intriguing prospect. He emerged as a big-time scorer at Colorado State. But getting there is the real story. He is a good line-drive finisher and a really impressive and improving 3-point shooter. His issue is that he is vastly undersized to play the forward spot. He gets after things defensively. But figuring out how he will play on the perimeter will remain a major challenge.
Expect to see some draft and stash candidates even early in the second round. Especially considering how many extra picks the Oklahoma City Thunder have. Ismael Kamagate is a talented player and a big center who seems somewhat likely to remain in Europe for a few more years. That could be valuable especially for a player as talented as Kamagate can be.
Do not expect the Orlando Magic to use all three of their draft picks in this year’s Draft. They just do not have the roster space for it. It is just as likely that they will look to grab a player they could park in the G-League or put on a two-way contract with one of these second-round picks.
That is where MarJon Beauchamp comes in for this pick. He was a good scorer for the G-League Ignite, who like Jaden Hardy was allowed to make a lot of mistakes and missteps. Beauchamp is a solid athlete and finisher. He has to improve his 3-point shot, but he has shown some decent playmaking.
Beauchamp is still a long-term project and it would be good to see him get more time in the G-League to fine-tune his game.