Markelle Fultz’s career trajectory is among the most unique of any player the NBA has ever seen, and his story is far from finished.
Fultz’s journey — from being the No. 1 selection in the 2017 NBA Draft to his triumphant Feb. 28 return from ACL surgery to all the chaos in between — has led to this crucial summer.
Despite the madness, it is apparent to all who are keeping tabs that the 23-year-old guard is primed for a leap back into the stardom that many predicted of him at Washington.
Markelle Fultz returned from injury and immediately made a positive impact for the Orlando Magic. His first full year back could be the breakout the young guard has long needed.
Fultz’s return last year was a huge boost to a team that need a strong finish to the season. Fultz averaged only 10.8 points per game and 5.5 assists per game in 20.0 minutes per game for the final 13 games of the season.
The Magic kept Fultz’s workload pretty light as he returned. Everyone expects things to ramp up. While Fultz certainly will not maintain the 19.5 points and 9.9 assists per-36-minute pace he put up last year — let alone the breakneck 103.0 pace the team played at while he was on the floor — he certainly will make an impact.
His first full season after returning from his injury brings with it a lot of promise. And it is easy to see the 2023 Most Improved Player Award as part of his destiny.
There are plenty of reasons why:
Health: Body and Narrative
Amazingly, this is Markelle Fultz’s first fully healthy summer of his entire NBA career.
Neurogenic Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, reconstructive ACL surgery and mental hurdles are fading into memories. He can finally focus on simply getting better at basketball.
Fultz is only 23 with a minuscule 131 games and 3,251 minutes of experience. He needs live reps — as any other young point guard would — and this offseason he can finally indulge himself in all the reps he would like without worrying about injury or COVID restrictions or a shortened offseason.
There are obviously still shooting concerns — he shied away from taking three-pointers and focused during his return on getting to his “kill spots” in the mid-range.
Fultz’s history demands coaches who he can be honest and comfortable with. This unique relationship and his health will unlock the “basketball” side of things and result in a confident and aggressive baller.
Fultz was the No. 1 overall pick of the NBA draft. He has a strong pedigree and a redemptive story that will drastically boost his award narrative weight. As much as fans hope that awards voters are perfectly objective, humans are storied by nature, and they will flock to Fultz’s story.
Fultz appears set to take over as the starting point guard. The league will have some attention on the team with the first overall pick running alongside him.
His narrative is as healthy and robust as his body. This gives him a clear path and outline for a Most Improved Player Award.
Markelle Fultz’s early Most Improved Player case
Exquisite Playmaking
Watching Markelle Fultz feels like a dream sequence from an over-serious existential movie. It is a beautiful and mysterious haze — often leaving observers asking, “Wait, how did he even get into the paint?”
Markelle Fultz and a big guard like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are cut from the same cloth of long guards who meander into the paint any time they want. Fultz’s immense capability of entering the defense’s “holy-of-holies” at will enables him to bend angles, manipulate passing lanes and wreak havoc.
He possesses interior passing that turns drop-bigs into stone — frozen in time forever even without a consistent jumper. He also shares the riches of his knifing drives by collapsing defenses with crushing gravity and then lacing passes to spot-up shooters (who usually miss).
In the final 14 games of the season, Fultz finished second in the NBA (among qualifying players) in assists per 36 minutes with 10.1 assists per 36 minutes. The others in the top-seven of this list are Trae Young (11.4), Tyrese Halliburton (10.1), Luka Doncic (9.8), LaMelo Ball (9.7), Darius Garland (9.0) and Dejounte Murray (8.8).
Pretty decent company.
Fultz also finished second on the list of average dribbles per touch in the NBA last season with 5.72. Trae Young, Luka Doncic, Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and James Harden are his immediate company. These are superstar distributors with superstar usage rates.
This bodes well for Fultz’s potential for significant upward mobility in his raw statistical output.
Fultz’s advanced playmaking metrics do not contradict the eye test.
Despite his shooting struggles, which we will discuss shortly, he still ranked in the 83rd percentile for scoring gravity. This backs up the claims of his extraterrestrial paint invasion abilities.
He ranked in the 99th percentile in assisted points per 75 possessions, potential assists and passing creation volume according to Basketball-Index. He also ranked in the 100th percentile of valuable assists created per 75 possessions. This means he was creating more dunks and open threes than just about anyone in the league.
The eye test and the stats say Fultz has a legitimate claim to the assist title next season which by itself would elevate his Most Improved Player case.
There is obviously more to it than that as he scales up to regular minutes and starter’s minutes at that.
Markelle Fultz’s early Most Improved Player case
Scorer or Sorcerer?
“Markelle Fultz can’t shoot 3’s.”
OK…this is kind of true, but all the other puzzle pieces are there for an elite offensive engine.
Fultz averaged 19.5 points per 36 minutes last season on 47.4/23.5/80.6 shooting splits.
Fultz has a gold badge for acrobatic finishing. Watching him blow by his man, fossilize big men and make tough finishes is nothing short of artful. The eye test is backed up even more strongly by the advanced numbers.
Fultz did not make it easy on himself in the half-court finishing in the secnd percentile (insane) of rim shot quality in the entire NBA. Surely this would result in poor finishing numbers, right?
Not so fast. he is a sorcerer finishing in the 92nd percentile in rim shot making, 96th percentile in contact finish rate and the 98th percentile of unassisted rim field goals made per 75 possessions per Basketball-Index.
Much of this was accomplished because Fultz converted on nearly 63-percent of his transition buckets and 50-percent out of pick and rolls. Fultz is a gifted finisher with rare, controlled explosiveness which got him selected No. 1 overall to begin with.
Fultz has never quite regained his shooting form or percentages that he dominated college basketball with, though his form has been looking smoother in recent Twitter clips.
Regardless, he is an excellent midrange shooter hitting 44.1-percent of his shots in the 15-19 foot range — 93.3-percent of these being self-created off the bounce per Second Spectrum.
These are extremely encouraging numbers. Paired with his impressive free throw percentage, there is a lot to like under the hood of Fultz’s shooting.
Obviously, the three-ball will be the key to unlocking superstardom for him. His unwillingness to attempt threes and the low clip by which he hit them will be a limiting factor for both his playmaking and scoring.
There is hope though. And Fultz is smart enough not to take shots he is not comfortable with. But he is not afraid to shoot when the time comes. Now it is just about creating reps and confidence.
It sounds like improvement is on the horizon.
Markelle Fultz’s early Most Improved Player case
Orlando Magic’s Need and Upward Trajectory
The Orlando Magic finished with a 22-60 record in 2022.
Markelle Fultz will no longer be the lone No. 1 overall pick on the roster, as the ping-pong balls fell in place for the team. There is going to be a very talented player added to the roster along with the young players improving inside the building.
This will bring many new eyes to Orlando’s games which will only microwave Fultz’s MIP chances.
In 2022 Orlando suffered from a nasty concoction of injuries, inexperience and tanking. There were many bright spots this season, though.
Franz Wagner emerged as a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-most as a rookie. Wendell Carter grew as a shooter and passer and built on his already-solid defensive reputation. Jalen Suggs began to find his own pace and Cole Anthony took a big scoring leap.
Defensive ace Jonathan Isaac is set to return along with whichever draft selection Orlando makes.
With the No. 1 overall pick in the mix and roughly $28 million in cap space, the Magic are primely positioned to improve greatly over last year’s win total. Winning will considerably inflate the attention on everyone on the roster. And ultimately winning is what garners awards attention.
Orlando is also in desperate need of a conductor to orchestrate the offense. All three of the choices at the top of the draft are bigs/super-sized wings and neither Anthony nor Suggs possess anything close to the playmaking and organizational skills Fultz has showcased thus far.
This bodes well for Fultz being the odds-on favorite to lead the guard rotation in minutes next season. Between the bump in minutes, desperate need for his playmaking ability, and almost certain leap in team record, Orlando’s context is perfectly ripe to welcome their first Most Improved Player since Ryan Anderson in 2012.
Fultz is rooted for and enjoyed by NBA circles outside of Orlando. His story is one of perseverance, redemption and jaw-dropping ability. This is a man, a story and a basketball player that voters can and will get behind when choosing their 2023 Most Improved Player.