The Orlando Magic have had a strange quarter to their season.
On one hand, the team has seen significant growth from several young players they needed to see growth from. Whether it is Cole Anthony staking a claim to some All-Star-level numbers or Wendell Carter turning himself into a modern, versatile big forward or Franz Wagner just making things work, the Magic have collected a ton of young players that seem to be getting better individually.
On the other hand, those individual players have not exactly come together to create wins yet.
The Magic finished the first quarter of their season with the worst record they have had since the fateful 2004 season that started 2-19 — two wins sandwiching a 19-game losing streak — totaling just four wins.
They can certainly blame a lot of things on it.
As a team, the Orlando Magic had a rough start to the season. But the team still found lineups and groups that were extremely successful and something the team can build upon.
The tough schedule is probably near the top of it. Injuries — Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz are still waiting in the wings to come back, but key veterans like Michael Carter-Williams and Gary Harris also missed time during the early parts of the season — were also a major factor in gutting the team’s record.
Youth is certainly a big part of that equation too.
Orlando expected to come out of the gates slowly and face all the inconsistencies that come with youth. The Magic’s opening day starting lineup was the youngest in the franchise’s history and one of the youngest in league history.
There were always going to be growing pains. And taking all that together along with the team trying to figure out roles and a new coach led to a poor 4-17 record to start the season.
So where do the Magic go from here?
Things were not all bad for Orlando. The team did find some things out and find some groups that work well together. As players get healthier and the team refines its rotation and play style, there are plenty of groups the team can use and rely on.
A good place to start to find some positives for this young Magic team and their outlook ahead is to look at the team’s best lineups.
As we wrap up our review of the first quarter of the season, we will take a look at the Magic’s five best lineups this season that have played at least 10 minutes together.
Orlando Magic’s top 5 lineups
Super Bench
Cole Anthony/R.J. Hampton/Terrence Ross/Franz Wagner/Wendell Carter
15 minutes (4 games) – +38.1 Net Rating (134.5/96.4)
The story of the first quarter of the season was the Orlando Magic’s starting lineup. it was good. Very good. And we will get to it in a bit and talk about where it ranked in the league.
But the divide between the Magic’s starting lineup and its bench lineups — especially when three key players in Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter were off the floor — has been the story for the season. The Magic’s bench has quite simply struggled.
This is a good point though to show how important the Magic’s trio of young players are. No players have been more important for the Magic than Anthony, Wagner and Carter.
When that trio is on the floor, the team has a +5.6 net rating. They play the most minutes together of any trio on the team.
Obviously, a lot of that comes with the starting group. But that trio has been undoubtedly successful for a team that had the worst net rating through the first quarter of the season — at worse than -10 points per 100 possessions.
It feels like the Magic could put any two players with those three guys and probably still come out OK. That is how good the trio of Anthony, Carter and Wagner have been this year.
This group with Terrence Ross seems to work because it has the right mix of playmaking and spacing to help give Ross the room to get free and become effective.
And with R.J. Hampton emerging as a better 3-point shooter, it helps make him more valuable as a secondary ball-handler in this seemingly plus-shooting lineup. Hampton has been quietly impressive from deep, hitting 40.6-percent of his 3-pointers so far this season.
In the end, this is a really strong offensive lineup with the three key creators for the magic and their two best shooters surrounding them.
If Hampton’s shooting continues, this would seemingly be a good lineup to trot out again with the balance it has and the ability to put everyone in their ideal spots to score and be effective for this team.
Orlando Magic’s top 5 lineups
Almost New Starters
Cole Anthony/R.J. Hampton/Gary Harris/Franz Wagner/Wendell Carter
23 minutes (6 games) – +33.3 Net Rating (117.4/84.1)
There is no denying these are some really small sample sizes here as the Orlando Magic tried to settle their rotation early in the year.
Like the first lineup on this list, it seems like it is a transition lineup as the Magic move from their starting group to their reserve group. So they are not on the court for long.
Their effectiveness still seems hard to deny. And it is a wonder perhaps why the team is not going with them a bit longer. That important trio of Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter and Franz Wagner are obviously still present.
For now, that does not make sense for the team’s rotation. It all stems from Orlando’s decision to start both Wendell Carter and Mo Bamba. That mixes up the Magic’s frontcourt rotation and sets every other piece of the puzzle in place.
It really means Franz Wagner plays a lot at the 3 more than he does at 4 as the team goes with its bigger alignment more often. So far this season Wagner has played 78-percent of his minutes at small forward, according to Basketball-Reference.
Wagner will likely remain nominally a small forward throughout the rest of the season. It is going to be hard to take him out of the starting lineup.
But, to a certain point, the Magic have to begin priming themselves for some change. Jonathan Isaac will return to the court and likely shift the Magic back to a more modern, versatile-4 lineup. That will leave the Magic splitting the minutes between Carter and Bamba a whole lot more.
That is something that probably should have been done already for this team. The Magic probably should be making sure to have one of Bamba or Carter on the floor at all times. Jonathan Isaac’s return — or even Chuma Okeke finding his rhythm again — will certainly push the team into a more traditionally modern lineup.
The Magic may be hesitant to do that at the moment. But the one thing that is clear is there is at least some proof of concept that a spread-out lineup with Wagner at the 4 and the Magic’s three key players can work. That is a good sign for whenever Isaac returns.
Orlando Magic’s top 5 lineups
The Starters
Cole Anthony/Jalen Suggs/Franz Wagner/Wendell Carter/Mo Bamba
163 minutes (15 games) – +11.4 net rating (105.6/94.1)
No group has made a bigger impact for the Orlando Magic than its starting lineup this year.
If the Magic are judging this season based on what they could be rather than their record, seeing their five best players working well together and making such a clear positive impact is a good sign that the team has some talented players and something they can build with.
The philosophy that is throughout the NBA these days that teams should just play their five best players at all times certainly made this group possible. And Wendell Carter’s defensive versatility and shooting development from deep have made this group work.
Every time it felt like the floor was going to drop on this group, they seemed to hang on and give the team a solid base to keep building — even if it slowed down from its big early-season push.
If anything, the Magic need to find ways to play this group more than the 10.9 minutes per game they worked together during the first quarter of the season.
Some context to help with how good this group was compared to the rest of the league:
Among lineups that played at least 100 minutes before Nov. 28, the Magic’s starting lineup ranked fourth in the entire league. The Magic’s starting lineup also played more minutes than any of the three lineups ahead of them.
This does not feel like something without some weight behind it. The group scrambles well defensively especially and sets up Cole Anthony well off the dribble for his shot.
What is incredible is that the spacing would seemingly be poor with the two bigs and the lack of shooting — especially from Jalen Suggs on the perimeter to this point. But the Magic have made it work. And there is no reason at this point to believe the team should go away from it — even when players begin to get back from injury.
Orlando should always be able to turn to this group this year. Even if this becomes a secondary lineup in the near future once Suggs and the other injured players return.
Orlando Magic’s top 5 lineups
Closing Lineup?
Cole Anthony/Jalen Suggs/Terrence Ross/Franz Wagner/Wendell Carter
16 minutes (5 games) – +8.5 Net Rating (111.1/102.6)
The Orlando Magic have always had this odd problem.
Their starting lineup is not their closing lineup. During the 2019 and 2020 playoff runs, the team would often swap out Jonathan Isaac to finish games with Terrence Ross. If there is one reason why the starting group does not play a lot more, it is because Jamahl Mosley has kept this up.
The Magic’s most common fourth-quarter lineup was a deep bench lineup. The most common rotation lineup was the starters with Terrence Ross and R.J. Hampton in for Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter to a net rating of -26.1 points per 100 possessions.
The first positive fourth-quarter lineup was the starters with Terrence Ross in for Jalen Suggs with a net rating of +22.2 points per 100 possessions. Of course, they played in only 11 minutes together.
That goes to show how few “clutch” minutes the team played and how many blowouts and non-competitive fourth quarters the Magic faced. Orlando was involved in only 17 minutes of clutch play (the second-fewest in the league) and just seven games (26th in the league).
Orlando has had some great late-game moments courtesy of Cole Anthony and Terrence Ross. But the Magic have not really shown exactly what they can do late because there are so few opportunities. And that has hurt the team’s ability to craft a consistent rotation — often killing Carter’s minutes because of the way Mosley has decided to deploy his rotations.
What this gets at is if the Magic are going to insist on using Ross in their closing lineups, then they have to figure out who he is best at replacing. Going small with Bamba would seem to make the most sense then. It allows the team to match up better but gives the team the offensive boost they are looking for in adding Ross.
It should be noted then that this specific lineup with Ross replacing Bamba with the starting group played 10 minutes across three games in the fourth quarter with a +6.4 net rating. This was a group the Magic went to in the fourth quarter and found some success.
What is equally clear is the Magic play this by ear.
They are still figuring out their closing lineups — remember they closed the win over the Utah Jazz with Gary Harris and R.J. Hampton in the lineup. At least here Mosley has shown some flexibility with his rotations.
Orlando Magic’s top 5 lineups
Closing Big
Cole Anthony/Terrence Ross/Franz Wagner/Wendell Carter/Mo Bamba
28 minutes (10 games) – +5.9 Net Rating (118.2/112.3)
Along the same lines, it is really about figuring out which lineups Terrence Ross works with best to close games. For now, Orlando is continuing to finish games with Ross in there for one starter.
There is no reason to expect that to change.
Among the Magic’s “clutch” players in the first quarter of the season, Cole Anthony (16 points total in 17 minutes) and Terrence Ross stand out (eight points in nine minutes on 2-for-2 shooting). Franz Wagner has zoomed up those clutch rankings in the last few weeks too.
This is all again pointing to the Magic struggling to find the best closing lineup or the best lineups to emphasize Ross.
As much as Gary Harris has drawn criticism for his poor play, Terrence Ross is not faring much better. This season overall, Ross is averaging 9.9 points per game on a career-low 46.7-percent effective field goal percentage. He is shooting 29.6-percent from deep.
Ross has traded a lot on his reputation and history with the team. But he has struggled to perform at times. Orlando still tries to catch that lightning in a bottle that Ross can become. It is finding the best lineups for it.
The good news from all of this is the Magic clearly have the versatility to try different lineups.
When teams go small, the Magic have a smaller lineup they can use to close games. When teams go bigger, they can upsize to close games. And in either case, Orlando has a lineup that works and can still help the team impose its will.
Obviously, some of these are now on hold with Suggs’ injury. The question is a lot easier to answer of who to take out of the starting group when one is out with an injury.
A lot of these questions will not go away though. Injured players will begin returning and cause some shifts to the rotation. Orlando is not likely to go away from Terrence Ross — and Cole Anthony — as closers for this team.
The good news is that despite how poor the Magic’s record is, there are several lineups and groups that have found success. Orlando just has to find a way to remain competitive enough to give these lineups the chance to run up the score on occasion.