The most valuable piece of real estate for any cap-ologist or executive planning is the rookie contract.
When players enter the league as first-round picks, every player is on intentionally deflated contracts. Future stars taken with the first overall pick are limited to a $12-million salary. Fifth overall pick Jalen Suggs will eat up only $6.6 million in cap room and top off at $9.2 million in the final year of his contract.
The Magic, just like most teams at the top of the draft, are going to extract a whole lot more value from Suggs.
The same goes for the other side of the coin. With only two years guaranteed and team options on the final two years, there is an escape from these contracts if players do not pan out or reach their potential. Even if they stay on the roster, for the most part, they are light weights on the team’s cap room.
The challenge when it comes to rookie players is figuring out how much to pay them when their contracts expire. And this is where the real art takes place.
The Orlando Magic have questions with two young centers who are set to enter restricted free agency. The risk is nobody knows how to value them as they hit the market.
At the end of that rookie contract, a player is no longer purely potential. They have some years of information and play behind them. With salary next to their name, they are expected to produce at a new level.
Former Magic general manager Rob Hennigan said at one point in his tenure he believed a player is essentially who they are going to be in this league — a star, a starter, a bench player or hanging on — by the end of that rookie contract. After four years, he seemed to feel a team can evaluate and value its players.
Getting that valuation right is critical to any team. Overpay a player coming off their rookie contract, and it ties a lock around a team’s neck and makes it harder to maneuver and improve the team.
These are still at least partially investments in the future — players do not stop growing at restricted free agency with players entering the league at younger ages. But getting that valuation right is critical.
This is part of where the Magic find themselves now with two potential restricted free agents due up at the end of the season.
It was reported earlier in the year that executives believe the Magic will re-sign Wendell Carter before the extension deadline in October at a contract worth somewhere near $17 million per year. There was nothing too concrete about the report.
Orlando Magic
But the idea brought up questions about how the Magic should appropriately value their still relatively new center. And it may be one of the most consequential decisions the Magic make this offseason and throughout this season.
With two centers about to hit restricted free agency with uncertain track records under their belt, the Magic are on the verge of making a major investment with incomplete information. It could well be a situation that ties up their cap room and either bring a massive return or an albatross around their neck.
Typically, three years into a career, a team has an idea of how their rookies are progressing. But for both Wendell Carter and Mohamed Bamba, there is only uncertainty.
Neither has quite lived up to his billing.
While Carter has shown some consistent defensive level, injuries and an inconsistent offensive output have slowed his development. Bamba has dealt with injuries, but his talent and raw physical attributes still could make him a game-changing center.
The question is when will they turn the corner? And how much is any team willing to invest in that growth?
These are some of the big questions facing both of these young players as they graduate out of their rookie contracts and into the wider world.
As we have been doing with the Magic’s young players, we are going to look to statistics to answer some of these questions before the season begins. By looking at player comparisons, perhaps, the Magic can get a better understanding of how to value these players.
Orlando Magic Player Comparisons
Wendell Carter
FiveThrityEight: Darryl Dawkins, Domantas Sabonis, Jonas Valanciunas
The Orlando Magic did not quite know what they were getting when they acquired Wendell Carter at last year’s trade deadline. Because, quite frankly, the Chicago Bulls had not been able to figure him out that much either.
Carter was a solid defender who did not jump off the page much — that was the story about him at Duke as well — whose offensive struggles were a bit of a mystery.
Carter certainly did not vibe with the revolving door of coaches the Bulls had. And Jim Boylen seemed to knock all the confidence out of the young center.
Before arriving in Orlando, Carter averaged 10.8 points per game and 5.6 rebounds per game with a 52.0-percent effective field goal percentage (on very few 3-pointers).
His arrival in Orlando was the fresh start he needed and he immediately made an impact. Magic fans fell in love with his defensive versatility as he came up with clutch blocks in wins over the LA Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans shortly after his arrival. Orlando fans saw a lot to like in the young center.
He finished the year averaging 11.7 points and 8.8 rebounds per game on a 51.0-percent effective field goal percentage (on a little more than 1.0 3-point attempts per game). Those were solid numbers and the magic seemingly shut him down — or slowed him — with minor injuries to preserve their draft spot.
FanSided
There were at least a few signs Carter would be a center worth investing in. Although with just 22 games under his belt in a Magic uniform, the team might be right to remain cautious and see how he plays out through an entire season before committing to him long-term.
FiveThirtyEight’s player projection system seems to like him as a long-term starter.
His best comparison is to legendary center Daryl Dawkins’ 1980 season — where he averaged 14.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. Dawkins, known more for his personality and dunking in NBA legend, was a solid defender for that Sixers team that went to the NBA Finals.
There are tons of other solid long-term starters on his comparison list. There may not be a ton of All-Stars on that list, but Carter still projects as a solid long-term contributor.
It would make sense if a team wanted to invest in him long-term. There is plenty to see there.
The question is really about value and what his future role is on a team. And that part is still so uncertain because of the inconsistencies in his career — Carter has not played more than 55 games in any season.
Another reason why the Magic might want to wait and see how he performs over the course of a long season, even if that means the price tag will come up.
For what it’s worth, FiveThirtyEight’s projections give Carter a five-year market value of $42.9-million — roughly $8.6 million per year. That is far from the $17 million that industry experts seem to think Carter will gt per year.
That is more proof that while Carter has tons of potential and should settle into a solid role on a team, the Magic are probably right to wait and see what he looks like before putting their center down in pen.
Because signing Carter to a four-year deal would be making a significant investment for a young, rebuilding team.
Orlando Magic Player Comparisons
Mohamed Bamba
FiveThirtyEight: Jordan Hill, Robin Lopez, Thon Maker
If Wendell Carter is a mystery then Mohamed Bamba might be Sherlock Holmes’ greatest case to solve.
The Magic, after all, took Bamba over Carter in the 2018 NBA Draft and nobody batted an eye on it. Since that draft, Bamba has dealt with injury after injury and false starts whenever he seemed to get going and get comfortable. Then he got caught behind a suddenly emerging All-Star on a team whose goals changed.
Bamba undoubtedly was a project when the team drafted him. And they quickly ran out of patience or time to develop such a young player as their goals changed.
Bamba got trapped in a bad situation very quickly. Then lost his availability to make the most of the chances he did get in that environment.
Bamba certainly needed to play better. But there were a lot of conditions that were beyond his control.
What became clear was that after the trade deadline when Bamba had a bit more freedom to make mistakes and less pressure to play, he played a lot better.
Bamba averaged 8.0 points per game, 5.8 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game. After the trade deadline, Bamba’s averages jumped to 11.1 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game. This really marked Bamba’s first pressure-free playing time and he showed exactly why every team saw potential in him on draft night.
King James Gospel
That does not mean that Bamba was perfect. He still has a long way to go and looks like a player who is still getting up to NBA speed. There is a huge experience gap Bamba has to make up. His injury issues — first a fracture to his shinbone and then a long-haul battle with COVID symptoms — have slowed him down in that department and lingered with him.
Everyone understands this is Bamba’s big chance this coming year –whether he carves a starting role or a bench role. But there remains pressure because of the presence of veteran Robin Lopez.
There will be undoubtedly injuries that will keep all three players in the rotation to varying degrees throughout the season.
Right now, it is tough to figure out who Bamba actually is. But his statistics suggest he will remain a fringe bench player with the potential of being an impactor on defense.
That is what he was drafted for to begin with. That is where he should be focused most as he enters this final year of his contract. It will be what keeps him in the NBA.
FiveThirtyEight’s player comparison tool matches him with Jordan Hill, Robin Lopez and Thon Maker. Each tells a story about the kind of player Bamba can become.
Hill was an energy center off the bench who had a brief flash with the right team but who largely disappeared from a consistent role quickly.
Bamba does not play with the same energy that Hill has — a constant criticism of Bamba — but he can be an impactor defensively just by his presence.
Lopez, whom the Magic signed this offseason, has gone through several iterations but has always been a solid defender and energy player despite his size and lack of speed. Lopez has created a long career as a backup center.
If Bamba can learn anything from Lopez, then Bamba will hang around a little while.
And Thon Maker, a draft pick by Orlando Magic general manager John Hammond when he was with the Milwuakee Bucks, was an all-potential oversized shooting center who just could not stay on the floor or carve a role.
Maker has turned into a cautionary tale for Bamba and drafting tantalizing stretch-5s with questionable mobility.
Casting Bamba as Lopez for his ceiling feels exceptionally low considering he was the sixth pick in the Draft in 2018. But at this point, the Magic need to get something out of him.
That really means anything just so they can begin to plan what their center position looks like as their rebuild starts.
We will be back with the final part of our player comparison series with a look at this year’s sophomore players. You can read part one on the Magic’s young veterans and part two on the Magic’s rookies here.