The NBA Draft Lottery was not a complete disaster for the Magic, but it was nonetheless a devastating blow. After a dreadful season thwarted by some of the worst injury luck ever seen in the NBA, which sparked Jeff Weltman’s decision to blow up the roster and start again, Orlando will pick fifth with their own selection.
There is much debate around whether this is a four- or five-man draft.
Cade Cunningham is the big prize, closely followed by Evan Mobley, Jalen Green and Jalen Suggs. Then there is Jonathan Kuminga, someone who has all the tools to be great but is still extremely raw, as he demonstrated in the G-League.
It leaves Orlando in a difficult spot. Having two top-10 picks is an enormous opportunity, yet it seems like the team is once again just out of reach of one of the big prizes. Much like in 2018 when the Magic took Mohamed Bamba sixth, one pick behind Trae Young and three behind Luka Doncic.
The Orlando Magic are in a tricky spot with a solid pick at No. 5. But if the team is looking to move up, the No. 3 pick and the Cleveland Cavaliers figures to be the best target.
There is plenty to like about Kuminga’s game, and he might end up outperforming those who are taken above him. When redrafts are debated years later, the order is never the same. There is also a chance that one of Green, Suggs or Mobley might fall to the Orlando Magic, given the Cleveland Cavaliers reportedly have some interest in Kuminga with the third pick.
But while there is always the chance of landing a star with any of the top 10 picks, selecting third would provide a much higher likelihood that it happens, especially in this draft.
If the chance arises to move up in a deal that does not involve the team sacrificing the young core already in place, it should be taken.
Magic must go all-in for a star player
The results and stats might not show it, but there is still plenty to be positive about going forward for the Orlando Magic.
Cole Anthony and R.J. Hampton made important strides forward last season, Chuma Okeke flashed great potential as a 3 and D wing, Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz are returning and both Wendell Carter and Mohamed Bamba are good options at the center spot.
But as it stands, no one on the roster can be considered good enough to build around just yet. Isaac is probably the most likely candidate if he grows offensively, given he is already one of the best defenders in the NBA. But his inability to stay healthy remains concerning. And the likes of Fultz and Anthony just are not ready yet.
It is possible one of the players already on the roster takes a big leap and the Magic finally get the star they need. Anthony jumps out as someone that could possibly do this, if his jump shot and 3-point shooting become more consistent.
But, currently, it feels like Orlando is missing that one guy to make it all make sense. There are some nice pieces, but no one to take the team to the next level.
Orlando Magic
This draft was Weltman’s catalyst for positive change. His reaction to seeing the Magic logo appear behind the number five envelope tells you just how important a top pick was to his plans.
There is still a chance he gets what he wants though, he will just have to give up something for it. Cunningham could have been franchise-changing but he is now out of the question. He will go to the Detroit Pistons with the number one pick if not for a complete shock on draft night.
That still leaves Green, Suggs or Mobley to pick from at three, depending on what the Houston Rockets opt to do with its second choice. Any of these options gives Orlando more of a chance to get that all-important star moving forward, given what they have already demonstrated in their young careers.
Mobley is widely touted as the second-best player in this draft, but concerns with how he might fit with Christian Wood and Jalen Green’s explosiveness, athleticism and scoring ability gives the Rockets plenty to contemplate.
Many Magic fans might also prefer one of the guards as opposed to the big, given Bamba’s slow progress over the past few years — not all his fault of course. But do not let the fact he is another 7-footer with long arms put you off. Mobley has the potential to be an excellent defender and go-to scorer someday and is already a very mature player for his age.
The man most Magic supporters are talking about though is Green, and it is not hard to see why.
For an offense that has long struggled, even in the two years the team made the postseason, the 19-year-old is someone who you can go to for a bucket. He can score from close range, or shoot from three, and is one of the best athletes in this class. In other words, a potential superstar in the making.
Jalen Suggs is another player who would have to be considered if the Magic were to reach a deal with the Cavaliers too. His heroics in getting Gonzaga to the NCAA Tournament final were well documented, as is his well-polished, all-round game through his ability to score, defend and create for others. Green and Mobley might be deemed to have a slightly higher ceiling, but Suggs is not far behind.
Picking third would give the Magic a ton of flexibility and the chance to land someone guaranteed to make an impact in the league for a long time to come.
It is fair to say the drop between Suggs and Kuminga, at the moment, is notable. Kuminga certainly has the potential to be better in the future, meaning he could rise from fifth, but there is a lot more uncertainty around him compared to the others.
But whether or not Orlando could do a deal with Cleveland is another matter entirely…
How could the Magic land the third pick?
If the Orlando Magic are to land the third pick, a deal which sees both the fifth and the eighth go to Cleveland and the third go to Orlando makes the most sense. It is a tough decision to make, given those picks would give Weltman two players and two bites of the apple at getting a superstar. But one go at a higher spot in this draft is more beneficial.
It would see Cleveland bolster a roster which is further into its rebuild and already has potential stars to build around — Darius Garland and Collin Sexton — and the Magic would go high risk for more chance of a big star.
Given fifth is only two back from Cleveland’s pick, and it would be getting another high selection too, Orlando should push for another addition. Maybe a future pick or a player like Cedi Osman, for example. The team could even offer some salary relief with their open cap space.
But it might not be as simple as a swap between the Magic’s picks and the Cavs’. It is possible the Cavs might be looking for player compensation of its own if it is to give up a top-three pick.
What Cleveland needs is defense. It is why the team drafted Isaac Okoro. Despite the Magic’s disappointing defensive numbers last season, there are some good individual defenders on the roster that could help boost Cleveland’s 25th worst defensive rating.
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If the Cavaliers are ready to make sacrifices to start winning more games after years of disappointment since LeBron James departed, they have to do something about the defense. Both Sexton and Garland show potential defensively, especially the latter, but the team gives up way too many buckets to opposing guards.
Someone like Gary Harris, or even Michael Carter-Williams, could help solve that problem. Harris’ salary would no doubt lessen Cleveland’s interest, but his on-ball defense could help the Cavs to become a better team.
Veteran players who have likely reached their ceiling should not be off the table when it comes to trading up. Even though Harris would benefit the Magic’s young backcourt next season, as would the experience of Carter-Williams, they should be seen as tradeable should it be necessary.
Where the line must be drawn however is when it comes to the young core — particularly the likes of Cole Anthony and Chuma Okeke. Only in an extraordinary scenario should the Magic move away from its promising young players. This has to be about adding another to that core.
The Magic must also try to keep one of the picks, likely the eighth, if its players the Cavaliers want. This would also likely require Orlando to take players back in the deal too, though.
For Cleveland, a tempting scenario might be offloading the salary of Kevin Love to Orlando. Love did not enjoy a successful season, playing just 25 games and attracting widespread criticism when he gave up on his team and batted an inbounds pass straight to the Toronto Raptors for an open shot.
Following Weltman’s trade deadline moves, the Magic now have plenty of cap space moving forward and could probably work out a deal whereby not a lot has to go in the other direction to assume Love. But while he can still space the floor, not a lot can be expected of a 32-year-old with an injury record as bad as his.
There are a few different ways the two could construct a deal, but Cleveland holds the power in this situation and the decision on whether to go through with a trade down hinges on several big team strategy decisions that would have to suit what the Magic can offer.
Cleveland is further along the rebuild path
Whether a team that has not made the playoffs in three years will want to trade down from the third spot in a draft with this level of talent is questionable. Orland would have to make it worth Cleveland’s while.
But the chance to grab two top-10 players might be more tempting, especially if the Houston Rockets take Evan Mobley at No. 2.
The team has put faith in Darius Garland and Collin Sexton, and while it has not quite paid off yet there are signs it might. He might have deficiencies on the defensive end, but Sexton averaged 24.3 points per game last season in just his third season in the NBA. There is a good chance that could keep travelling in an upward trajectory like it has done so far.
Cleveland Cavaliers
And Garland has also shown a lot of promise. He averaged 17.4 points and 6.1 assists per game last season while shooting a very impressive 39.5-percent from three. On the defensive end, he made important strides forward too. In a couple of years, this backcourt could start contributing to winning basketball if the pieces around them are right.
If Mobley goes second, and the Cavs keep the third pick, Green or Suggs should be the selection. The Cleveland front office might be happy taking another guard with high upside and letting it play out. But if faith in Garland and Sexton is high enough, the Magic’s picks offer a better chance to build a team around them.
Cleveland reportedly holds interest in Kuminga, and might even be looking at him with the third pick. But unless the Toronto Raptors are really sold on him, there is every chance the Cleveland Cavaliers could trade down and grab him at No. 5 instead. It would also allow the front office to take another talent – someone like Moses Moody, James Bouknight or Corey Kispert, for example — at No. 8.
But the Cavaliers will no doubt be wary of being the team that trades down, missing out on a generational All-Star who could change the face of the franchise, just to provide a better fit around two guards who do not turn out to be as good.
Trading down represents a huge risk. It is entirely possible Cleveland would rather just use the higher pick to take one of the guards and see who performs the best over time.
And if Houston goes for Green, Mobley presents a hugely exciting opportunity for Cleveland in the frontcourt to play with the two guards already on the roster. It would not make a lot of sense for the team to pass up the opportunity of taking him.
There are also rumors Cleveland is exploring trade options for Sexton, according to Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated, with his rookie extension window fast approaching. It represents a huge chance for the Cavs to go in a new direction by moving him on and taking Suggs or Green third to go alongside Garland, if they are preferred to Sexton.
Thus decision will be the most influential factor behind the likelihood of whether Orlando could trade up. But it has to be the preferred option for the Magic should the opportunity present itself.