The trade that sent Nikola Vucevic to the Chicago Bulls was a seminal moment in the history of the Orlando Magic franchise.
Vuevic represented more than just the lone All-Star, the offensive savant who carried an, as many projected, woeful offensive group. He was and is one of the most decorated players to wear a Magic uniform.
For president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and his staff to make the gutsy decision to trade him meant they believed they were receiving legitimate talent in return, along with plenty of future assets to build around.
Wendell Carter’s surprising play to start his time with the Orlando Magic has softened the blow of losing All-Star Nikola Vucevic and has set the team up with a potential center and defensive anchor.
Wendell Carter showed enough intrigue in his early Bulls tenure — for those who were watching. But his injury troubles and inconsistent minutes in Chicago’s frontcourt-heavy roster made the fit less than ideal.
Regardless, Carter showed promise due to his pure athleticism and lengthy wingspan, which made him one of the best young defensive big men in the league. Weltman is known for targeting players of this ilk, those with the physical gifts to back up their raw talent.
But it is safe to gather that even the Magic did not expect this level of production from Carter immediately. The 22-year-old has been so proficient, that it is worth taking a look at the film to understand what has made his play in Orlando so superb.
Anchoring the Defense
Wendell Carter Jr. came into the NBA with expectations he could be the quintessential modern big, with the size to guard up to center and the lateral quickness to cover power forwards. He was projected to have elite versatility that only a handful of players possess.
While these expectations proved prescient even during his time with the Chicago Bulls, Carter has another level of defensive impact so far with the Orlando Magic.
Since the trade deadline, the Magic are giving up 116.8 points per 100 possessions. With Carter on the floor, that number drops to 111.8 points per 100 possessions. Not a great number still, but compared to other players on the team, a strong indicator of Carter’s defensive impact.
His defensive impact in the paint is also pretty telling. According to data from Basketball Index this season, Carter contests 47.0-percent of the shots at the rim while he is in the game, one of the highest marks in the league. Teams still dare to go at him even though teams shoot 9.60 percentage points worse at the rim against their expected field goal percentage.
Carter saves roughly 0.16 points at the rim per 75 possessions, placing him in the top quarter of the league in that metric.
In a single possession against the LA Clippers, he displayed all of the actualized potential that intrigued NBA talent evaluators just three years prior:
Wendell Carter begins this play on Ivica Zubac, a true seven-footer, before hedging out onto Kawhi Leonard on the ice ball screen coverage (an ice is when the defense tries to force the pick and roll to the corner, thus isolating him from the rest of the action on the floor). He shows a cerebral understanding of the court and does not allow Leonard to drive baseline — staying with him until the trap is executed in the corner.
Once Leonard relocates the ball to the top of the key, Carter recovers to meet Zubac in the restricted area. Somehow, he is able to get around the Clippers’ big man to barely deflect the shot and seal the win for the Magic.
A week later against the Denver Nuggets, he had the same all-around impact against MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic.
In particular, his team defensive help principles have elevated the Magic’s ability to defend single-coverage post-up actions and spread pick-and-roll, simultaneously.
Here, Wendell Carter feints a strong side defense to trick Will Barton into lobbing the ball to Nikola Jokic’s right hand and then quickly swivels around to poke it free to start a Magic fast break.
On the next possession, he shows textbook awareness — seeing both man and ball — ensuring that he will be able to react if Barton tries to use his speed to get to the basket. At a moment’s notice, Cater drops his coverage to slide over and beat Barton to the restricted area, all while maintaining the poise to remain vertical and not chase a blocked shot.
These intricate details appear commonplace when highlighted from hand-picked 15-second clips, but they take most players a decade to internalize at the NBA level. Carter’s immediate ability to impact games as a defensive stalwart shows that he has high the potential to become one of the league’s best defensive players.
Filling the Scoring Void
Wendell Carter Jr.’s defense has undoubtedly been his calling card in both his NBA career and short stint with the Magic, but his offensive capabilities have impressed Steve Clifford and the staff. Following the Magic’s win in Chicago against his former team, Clifford commented specifically on Carter Jr.’s offensive play through his first 11 games on the roster. That is not the first time he has praised Carter’s poise and feel for the game.
Poise is a wonderful way to describe Carter’s early offensive play with the Magic so far.
He never seems rushed or anxious, and he allows the game to come to him. These kinds of hyperbole are used often, but rarely is the sentiment unanimous for a player in his junior season.
In his return to Chicago, less than a month since he wore a Bulls uniform, Carter put on a display for his former teammates. In particular, his dominance showcasing his pure strength was eye-catching.
The play call is a big-big pin-down screen, part of Steve Clifford’s elbow series. The beauty of this play is that Wendell Carter’s defender knows the action — Nikola Vucevic had been sniffing out Orlando’s sets throughout the game. To an uninformed viewer, these details are unnoticeable.
Knowing that Nikola Vucevic is anticipating the play, Wendell Carter shows great intuition in flaring off the screen from Chuma Okeke and making a strong move at the catch to leave him off guard.
A couple of minutes later, he shows similar toughness in sealing out the Bulls’ Tomas Satoransky, then using his agility to beat Nikola Vucevic to the loose ball and snare two more points in what turned out to be a close finish in Chicago.
But he has not solely been scoring over opponents using his muscle. Carter has also developed an ability to create shots for himself and his teammates in isolation.
In space, he has shown the biggest development in his ability to face up and create off the dribble, an area of weakness for him early in his career.
Alex Len is by no means an agile defender, but Carter uses a simple hesitation to create an opening and then explodes with two dribbles toward the paint. For a lot of big men, this move is usually a single or two-dribble pull-up from the mid-range. Carter shows determination by not settling.
The next step for Carter is to further develop his outside shot, both the catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble varieties.
His 29-percent efficiency from behind the arc in 13 games has underwhelmed. But the Magic should be excited by his efficiency at the rim — 76-percent, which is in the 88th percentile among all big men, per Cleaning the Glass.
With Cole Anthony still recovering from injury and Terrence Ross in a difficult shooting slump since the All-Star break, there are plenty of opportunities for Carter to get more repetitions.
The future is bright
The Orlando Magic have to feel good about the future with Carter Jr. manning the middle. Based upon his early play, Orlando may have struck gold in securing a two-way big with high upside.
Health will be tantamount to Carter’s development going forward, as he has already dealt with a serious injury to his quad earlier this season. Like Mohamed Bamba, the prospect of playing the remainder of the season and refining his offensive skill set in the offseason is paramount.
Beyond the 2021 season, the Magic have an opportunity to field one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA — assuming Jonathan Isaac is able to return to on-court activities this summer and start the 2022 season on schedule.
Jeff Weltman and his staff have to field a sense of relief from Carter Jr.’s impressive start. Even the most optimistic projection wouldn’t have had his production at such a level this early.
With Vucevic and the rest of the veteran core gone, the next era of Orlando Magic basketball began this spring. At the very least, the Magic can feel good that they’ve found a center that they can build around for the future.