The Orlando Magic have gotten off to a strong start, largely due to a strategy that has bolstered their play on both sides of the ball.
The Orlando Magic started the 2021 season strong, winning their first four games, including an opening night nail-biter against the defending conference champion Miami Heat. While their other wins against the Washington Wizards (twice), Oklahoma City Thunder, and Cleveland Cavaliers (twice) do not jump off the page, they are necessary if the Orlando Magic want to return to the postseason.
To be successful in the NBA, you have to take care of your winnable games and split matchups against opponents that are as good or better than you. That is the recipe for regular-season success.
The Magic have had two less-than-playoff-caliber performances in their 10 games – on New Year’s Eve against the Philadelphia 76ers and in Houston against James Harden and the Houston Rockets, their first game following the loss of Markelle Fultz.
Even in their other two losses against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks, they showed mettle, particularly on the defensive side of the floor. Much of their struggles have come scoring the basketball, their percentages inside and outside the arc dropping 10 percentage points in losses.
And in their victories, they have leaned into one of their biggest strengths, so subtle that it can be hard to notice live: above-average offensive rebounding paired with minimal transition opportunities for their opponent.
Balancing both, at the highest levels of basketball, is a testament to Steve Clifford’s ability to strategize a gameplan and his team’s ability to implement it.
This gambit, particularly for the worst shooting team in the league thus far, has manufactured wins. And now with Fultz out, being able to manufacture points off the offensive glass while preventing easy baskets in transition back at them will be vital.
Offensive rebounding
The Orlando Magic’s ability to create easy opportunities on second-chance looks has been vital to their success this season.
Even when they are unable to generate a high-percentage shot on their initial action, they have designed their sets to provide secondary opportunities to score.
So far this season, the Magic have a 26.8-percent offensive rebound rate, 13th in the league. The team’s 28.9-percent offensive rebound rate in wins would place the team sixth in the league. This is a good measure of whether the Magic are playing with the necessary activity on offense.
Overall too, the Magic score 13.0 second-chance points per game are 13th in the league.
What is impressive is how the Magic have integrated this into their gameplan. The Magic ranked 19th in second-chance points per game (12.7) and 16th in offensive rebound rate (26.7-percent) last year.
This was a noted focus for Steve Clifford as he game-planned for this season.
Notice the placement of the four Magic players in the clip below when Terrence Ross attacks the basket — no one is above the free-throw line:
Instead, both Khem Birch — the Magic’s best offensive rebounder — and Gary Clark rim run with Terrence Ross. For most teams, Clark would be the “retreat man” to prevent an easy Dallas attack, given he was located at the top of the key when Ross drove.
NBA offenses can be strategically passive on live-ball rebounds — most deferring to prevent their opponent from generating easy offense in transition rather than gamble for a second-chance shot.
But Clifford has recognized this strength in his team and is self-aware of the need to generate easy baskets this season. It may not be his “preferred” way to play, but he is willing to employ this machination if it helps his team win.
Cole Anthony provided an even more obvious example of Orlando’s focus on the offensive glass in their second matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder:
In addition to showcasing Anthony’s instincts and hustle, this clip puts into perspective the Magic’s emphasis on offensive rebounding. Very few point guards ever make an attempt at a rebound in these halfcourt situations, particularly when they are spaced beyond the 3-point line.
Surprisingly, listed at (a rather generous) 6-foot-3, Anthony is the team’s second-best offensive rebounder by the numbers. His rebound rate on field-goal attempts is 5.4-percent, which ranks in the 94th percentile among point guards, per Cleaning the Glass.
Along with Khem Birch and Cole Anthony, Michael Carter-Williams is among the team’s best at hunting offensive rebounds. He is adept at slithering around unsuspecting big men and timing his attack at the optimal time.
There is a reason Steve Clifford has such reverence for Michael Carter-Williams’ play, and why he was initially tasked with starting in place of Evan Fournier while the latter has sat with back spasms. In a six-point victory over Miami, these two plays may well have been the difference between a win and a loss.
Offensive rebounding is one of the reasons the Magic bench has been more efficient offensively than the starters in a very small sample size. It will be worth monitoring how this is impacted by Anthony’s transition to the starting lineup.
Transition defense
The Orlando Magic, as the rest of the league is well aware, is a defensive-minded organization. And the surest way to bolster a defense is through limiting easy opportunities for opponents in transition.
Through 10 games the Magic have done this masterfully. They hold the league’s 12th-best defensive efficiency in transition because they allow the second-fewest attempts in the open court, according to Cleaning the Glass. On a raw statistical measure, the Magic are giving up only 11.5 fast-break points per game, the eighth-best mark in the league.
This has been a hallmark of Clifford and his teams. Last year, the Magic gave up 11.9 fast-break points per game last year, fourth in the league.
Some of this success is due to the Magic’s personnel. Their roster is comprised of defensively capable players on the perimeter who snuff out semi-transition opportunities.
In particular, Khem Birch has shown a determination to protect the paint in transition. In Friday’s loss in Houston, Khem Birch deterred attacks from both Christian Wood and John Wall in a span of fewer than three minutes of gameplay:
The charge and contest on the layup show Birch’s cerebral understanding of defensive angles, and how to position his body to make an opponent’s drive slightly more difficult.
Orlando Magic
But the limited number of opponent transition attempts is largely due to something more intentional: the Magic’s elected shot selection.
Orlando has employed the opposite offensive strategy of the modern NBA — they take the most mid-range shots in the league and are near the bottom in both attempts at the rim and from beyond the arc. While the impact of this election is likely net-negative for their overall offensive efficiency, it does bolsters their transition defense.
The most obvious advantage comes from limiting long rebounds — the fewer 3-pointers attempted and the less long live rebounds for their opponent to feast off of.
And fewer shots at the rim mean fewer occurrences where the Magic are “behind the play”, with a trailing finisher trying to mitigate the impact of the opponent’s five-on-four advantage.
On its face, it is easier for the casual fan to argue for a more “modern” shot profile. Why take a long 2-pointer when you can move back a couple of feet and potentially earn an additional point?
Indeed, the second-order effects of gameplans are rarely considered in impassioned Twitter debates.
Little consideration is given to the Magic’s dearth of perimeter shooting. It sounds intelligent to prescribe more 3-pointers, but it can be folly to do so without first considering if personnel on the roster can make those shots efficiently. Only Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic are shooting above league average from outside through 10 games.
It would appear the decision to limit outside attempts in favor of decreasing opponent transition opportunities is the beneficial trade-off for this team.
The road ahead
The Orlando Magic is entering one of the most challenging stretches of the schedule — a seven-matchup gauntlet starting at home against the Milwaukee Bucks, followed by a six-game road trip against the East’s best teams, including the Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers.
With only two games to initiate Cole Anthony into the starting rotation, the Magic will have to feel these changes out through live play. There will undoubtedly be some growing pains. Player development may be a better barometer than on-court success.
The Magic should continue to employ the rebounding-transition strategy in hopes of minimizing the talent discrepancy during this stretch. Brooklyn, Boston and Indiana all allow opponents to grab an above-average number of offensive rebounds, per Cleaning the Glass.
Milwaukee and Brooklyn spend the most time in transition in the league, and Boston and Indiana rate among the top-10 league-wide too. These matchups will be a measure of how accomplished the Magic’s transition defense truly is.
The mounting injuries and potential for contact tracing protocols limiting the roster make this stretch even more perilous for Orlando. Dallas’ Maxi Kleber, who played 24 minutes against the Magic on Saturday, was placed under isolation due to contract tracing the following morning as reported by The Athletic’s Shams Charania.
When teams enter a difficult stretch, it’s paramount that they maintain their identity and adhere to the gameplan that has already brought them success.
The Magic should continue to rely on their offensive rebounding prowess and staunch transition defense if they are to compete over these next two weeks.