The Orlando Magic are seeking ways to get better and potentially move up in the Draft. Doing that will be expensive as they seek a framework to move up.
The Orlando Magic are reportedly looking to move up in the Draft.
That might be a statement that is true every year for every team. Every team wants the chance to get the best players in the Draft. The question is always about what they are willing to give up to get them and the willingness for teams to trade off the top pick.
That is what makes this year’s Draft so interesting then.
The conditions all seem there for a trade to happen. The Magic are a team in something resembling transition as they try to map out their future with a newer core of players and the top of this Draft is not full of players teams want to keep.
Not to mention, nobody has money in free agency nor are there free agents most teams would likely try to pursue.
That is why there are so many rumors about the Minnesota Timberwolves listening to trade offers for the top pick. Or the seeming inevitability that the Golden State Warriors will trade the second overall pick.
It does not help that nobody has any good sense about who will fall where in this Draft. There are players that could go anywhere from the top-3 to outside the Lottery. It is a wide-ranging draft with prospects that teams are interested in but not overly excited about.
After five months of sitting on their hands waiting for the Draft to take place, everyone is antsy to get this thing going. And it could be a fairly active draft night.
The Magic certainly have every reason to be active. The team needs to begin shifting its roster to a new era while they look to remain competitive. They need some young talent. And with only the mid-level exception available to them in free agency, the team needs to find new players to add skill.
And, the dirty secret for the team is they already have a high-level draft pick ready to join the team in Chuma Okeke.
But finding a trade is more difficult than it sounds. It is not as easy as popping in players into the Trade Machine and asking, “Who says no?”
The devil is really in the details. And ultimately, it always takes two teams to make a deal.
But the first place to start is to have something each team wants. To make a deal, teams have to target and court each other.
So if the Magic really do want to move up, who are they targeting and what might they have to give up?
Before even picking up the phone, then, teams have to understand if there is a framework for a deal — players that can be swapped for each other and make sense for every team. From there, they can fill in the details necessary to get to the finish line.
So as a start, let’s look at the potential frameworks for deals between teams ahead of the Magic and assess which teams the Magic might actually deal with.
Reminder, what we are discussing are frameworks for deals. The deals proposed are not reflective of any reporting or even reflective of deals that are legal. They are merely starting points for a discussion with details that need to be filled in.
The Top Pick
No. 1 — Minnesota Timberwolves
Possible Targets: Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Deni Avdija, Killian Hayes
A lot of Orlando Magic fans have zeroed in on the Golden State Warriors with the second pick as a potential trade partner because the Warriors picking that high seems out of place. It feels like a spot where they could trade a rookie for a veteran to help them regain their perch in the Western Conference.
Do not worry, we will get to the Warriors.
But the Minnesota Timberwolves with the top pick have expressed some interest in a deal too. And they are in a bit of a trickier spot.
Minnesota pushed some chips into the table to acquire D’Angelo Russell and pair him with Karl-Anthony Towns. Their acquisition of Malik Beasley also seemed to be a smart move, giving them a good third shooter. He is a restricted free agent this offseason and his arrest likely will scare some suitors away.
The Timberwolves traded away their first-round pick for next year with some protections to the Warriors. So Minnesota needs to position itself to win.
Another rookie is not the best thing for that, but it also would not be the worst. In a normal draft, Minnesota would be doing some backflips.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The problem is the Timberwolves do not have a lot to offer teams besides that top pick. Likely any trade involving the top pick would involve James Johnson and his $16 million salary (he has a player option for the 2021 season that he is not likely to decline).
He gave the Timberwolves very little last year and weighed down their books. Attaching him to the first pick is likely their only way out.
His salary matches with Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon’s salary. Either player would be better than anything the Timberwolves currently have. The question for them — and honestly for the Magic — is whether what they get with the top pick would be better or worse.
And that is a bigger question. As always, if the Magic believe someone at the top of this draft is their guy, they should go for him no matter the cost.
Johnson would be a good tough guy to add to the team. He would be an interesting add to the team and if the Magic can reclaim his effectiveness on defense, he could be a nice pair for Nikola Vucevic (along with Al-Farouq Aminu). There are worse big salaries to have to take on (especially since Johnson is expiring).
But the real prize is that top pick. And the Magic would have to ask themselves whether LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards or someone else are truly worth the cost and truly worth building around.
My suspicion is that this might be a price too high and they are not up for the challenge. Then again, Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon are probably the players the Magic are shopping around the most.
The Obvious Answer
No. 2 — Golden State Warriors
Potential Targets: Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman, Killian Hayes, Isaac Okoro
This is the most talked-about deal among Orlando Magic fans.
The Golden State Warriors seem like they are ripe to trade this pick to go get some more reinforcements for their roster. They want to compete for championships and they should be able to with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson coming back from injury.
Waiting for a rookie to develop is not going to help them — unless that rookie is a star which no one seems to think is a sure thing in this draft.
The Warriors have been right to be pretty quiet. And the Magic are going to be near the back of the line. Golden State will push for a bigger star — Jrue Holiday coming on the market probably does not fit Golden State, but the team should ask. But the Magic will always be there to pick things up.
Aaron Gordon has long been connected to Golden State as a potential trade target. That never made much sense to me. Gordon’s struggles to shoot would make him a poor fit at small forward even with the Warriors’ stellar guard duo. And he is a worse version of Draymond Green in a lot of ways.
Golden State Warriors
The guy the Warriors should be interested in is Nikola Vucevic. He would fill a major need at center and would fit perfectly into that offense as someone who could pass from the high post, shoot from the perimeter and rebound.
Early indications are that Warriors fans, at least, are not super enamored with the prospect. And Vucevic’s shortcomings would probably get exposed in the playoffs. The Warriors know their formula works better with a center who protects the paint and rim better. The offense from that spot is a bonus.
Magic fans again should probably press pause too. Unless the Warriors want to use their $17 million trade exception to take on Evan Fournier (Aaron Gordon’s contract is too big), they would have to give up something of value too. That would probably mean taking on Andrew Wiggins and the two years and $65.2 million left on his contract.
If the Magic are not planning on doing a whole lot this season, then taking on Wiggins’ contract for two years while their young player develops might make sense. Considering Wiggins would then have been traded twice in two years suggests the team could still move him — or just reap the cap savings.
But there would need to be a lot of work to get there.
And, like with the first pick, the Magic need to be sold that whoever they are drafting is a player they can truly build around. As I have said throughout this process, I am skeptical that this player is there.
Fending off the competition
No. 3 — Charlotte Hornets
Potential Targets: Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Deni Avdija, James Wiseman, Onyeka Okongwu
A pattern is likely going to emerge with the teams at the top of this Draft. In order to get them to move off the top pick, the Orlando Magic would have to offer a starter-level player plus their pick AND accept a bad contract in return.
The Charlotte Hornets are probably in more need of a young player and rookie than the two teams above them. They seem less likely to trade their pick than any of these other teams at the top. They have very real needs to solve and this Draft can definitely solve them.
Still, that formula for players at the top still holds. The Hornets could look to swap out Nicolas Batum (player option for $27.1 million in 2021) or Cody Zeller ($15.4 million) with their pick for Nikola Vucevic or Evan Fournier. Vucevic might be somewhat attractive to them if they want to try to make the Playoffs more immediately. And coach Steve Clifford got the most out of Nicolas Batum once upon a time.
But the Hornets are more likely to hold tight and use this pick to bolster their front court.
No. 4 — Chicago Bulls
Potential Targets: Anthony Edward, LaMelo Ball, Killian Hayes, Isaac Okoro, Deni Avdija, Tyrese Haliburton
The Chicago Bulls too could be looking to get a lot better quickly, especially after hiring Billy Donovan as the team’s head coach.
They were knocking on the door of the Playoffs last year, playing a lot better than most expected with a coach that seemed to grind and work against some of his players. But with Zach LaVine, Wendell Carter Jr., Lauri Markkanen and Coby White, this Bulls team has the young talent waiting to figure things out to take the next step.
Orlando Magic fans have targeted LaVine as a trade target for a while. But that seems unlikely if the Bulls feel they can compete for the Playoffs. They would more likely be thinking about trading someone like Thaddeus Young (two years left at $27.7 million) or Otto Porter (player option for $24.5 million in 2021).
There was some thought at some point about an Aaron Gordon-for-Otto Porter swap. And maybe that makes some sense with Porter’s improved shooting. But he is also injured often. Does that really help the Magic other than in clearing some cap room for the summer of 2021?
There does not seem to be a real feasible way to make a deal here. The Bulls seem set on taking Deni Avdija and bolstering the front court that way rather than taking on another big-salary player. They may be holding their big contract cards for later.
More Rebuilding
No. 5 — Cleveland Cavaliers
Teams that are at the bottom of the standings are the ones that clearly need Draft picks and high draft picks at that. While the Cleveland Cavaliers still have Kevin Love and Andre Drummond and at least talk like they want to compete for a playoff spot, it is not likely. Not unless their strange backcourt of Darius Garland and Collin Sexton coalesces quicker than expected.
After a nine-month layoff since their last competitive game, that does not feel super likely to happen.
The Cavaliers should use this pick on a forward like Patrick Williams, Isaac Okoro or Deni Avdija. This team is too far away from anything competitive to give up on draft picks. And the Orlando Magic do not have anything meaningful to make a deal and get them off the fifth pick.
No. 6 — Atlanta Hawks
Potential Targets: Deni Avdija, Killian Hayes, Tyrese Haliburton, Devin Vassell
The Atlanta Hawks are still a rebuilding team but in a much different position. They have their star in place in Trae Young. And, especially with the Orlando Magic in a position that looks weak with Jonathan Isaac out, they likely see this as an opportunity to climb into the Playoffs permanently.
Atlanta has reason to believe that with the team playing well after John Collins completed his suspension and Clint Capela set to join the team after last year’s deadline deal that it can make the climb up.
The Hawks are open to trading this pick for a veteran that can get them over the top.
This is what makes a deal with the Magic so tough. Orlando probably has a player who can help get Atlanta over the top in Evan Fournier — another, more seasoned wing shooter would boost that team.
There are two issues here though.
First, the Hawks have enough cap room to sign Fournier outright. They would not need to give up anything to sign him if he opts out of his contract. There would be no reason to acquire him if they did not intend to sign him.
Second, why would the Magic help perhaps their chief competition for the 8-seed and entrench them in the playoffs. Dealing with the Hawks right now is probably something of a non-starter for this reason.
No.7 Pick — Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons might be in worse shape than any other team on this list so far.
Blake Griffin is a star player when he is healthy but he has struggled with injuries for several years now. And the Pistons simply do not have many other viable options on their roster. In fact, the Pistons’ cap sheet is almost a completely blank slate.
What do the Orlando Magic have to offer that would be meaningful for the Detroit Pistons to give up the seventh pick? Probably nothing of substance unless they want to help them get off Blake Griffin’s contract. And that would not involve the seventh pick anyway. They need to use and hit on this pick.
No. 8 Pick — New York Knicks
Potential Targets: Devin Vassell, Aaron Nesmith, Tyrese Haliburton, R.J. Hampton, Tyrese Maxey, Kira Lewis
The Orlando Magic got connected to the New York Knicks over their seemingly perpetual interest in Dennis Smith Jr. But the reality is there is not much there for a deal.
At least not in terms of the Magic moving up to the eighth pick.
New York’s cap sheet is fairly clear. Unless the Magic really want Wayne Ellington or Julius Randle or a second draft selection like Dennis Smith Jr. or Kevin Knox.
But the Magic would be giving up a lot to move up to No. 8 and getting back very little. None of those players move the needle much for the Magic unless they believe who they get at No. 8 will be more impactful than what they are giving up.
Considering the Knicks are also trying to keep their cap sheets clean — and have the cap room to absorb an imbalanced trade — they may only bite on Evan Fournier. It just does not feel like the greatest deal, but the avenue is there.
Risers and Fallers
9th Pick — Washington Wizards
By this point in the Draft, teams’ interests are definitely changing. We are no longer dealing with teams that absolutely need draft picks and are trying to grow and develop players. These teams have the playoffs in mind. They might be more willing to deal, valuing veteran presence and poise over young players.
The Washington Wizards though are not an ideal trade partner again for some key reasons.
First, like the Atlanta Hawks, the Orlando Magic probably have no interest in giving one of their better players to their chief competitor for a playoff spot. That probably kills a deal in the cradle.
Second, the Wizards have very little in movable salaries that would interest the Magic or match the kinds of players the Wizards are probably hoping to acquire for this pick.
There just is not a deal here.
10th Pick — Phoenix Suns
Potential Targets: Devin Vassell, Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith, Tyrese Maxey, R.J. Hampton, Kira Lewis
The Phoenix Suns and the Orlando Magic have talked before. We know that at least.
A deal involving Kelly Oubre and Aaron Gordon was widely reported. Something seemed to scuttle it — whether it was Kelly Oubre’s injury or Aaron Gordon’s underpeforming or Jonathan Isaac’s injury. Those talks likely never have gone away.
So it makes sense that they might get revisited here.
The question here is really on the Suns. They have the thing the Magic want and the better trade asset in the 10th pick vs. the 15th pick. So they have to ask themselves if Gordon is better than Oubre. If that answer is yes, then a deal is almost certainly there. If it is not, then they can ask for more or move on.
The secondary question is whether Gordon and 15 are better than Oubre and 10, but that difference is somewhat negligible for this discussion.
The important part is that more than any other team in this region, there is a very real and tangible framework for a deal. If there were odds for a pick the Magic would move up to, the 10th pick with the Suns feels by far like the most realistic picture for a deal.
11th Pick — San Antonio Spurs
Potential Targets: Devin Vassell, Aaron Nesmith, Kira Lewis, Tyrese Maxey, R.J. Hampton
The other area where a deal might get struck is in the long-rumored DeMar DeRozan interest. The San Antonio Spurs feel like they are in a state of transition after missing the playoffs for the first time in 20-plus years.
San Antonio has a lot of players they might look to trade. Veterans like Rudy Gay and Patty Mills feel like they could be attained in addition to DeMar DeRozan. The question is what does San Antonio want?
The Spurs could come into cap room soon. So they have a lot to assess.
It is hard to find a framework for a deal though. What do the Spurs want? Would they be up for someone like Nikola Vucevic or Evan Fournier or Aaron Gordon? Are the Magic willing to shop Terrence Ross in a deal like this? Would that be worth trading up only four spots? Would the Orlando Magic want one of those veterans in return on the last year of their deal to get there?
When it comes to DeMar DeRozan, would the Spurs take one of those big players plus Al-Farouq Aminu to make a deal?
It is hard to find any picture that does not come with a ton of questions.
Negligible Moves?
12th Pick — Sacramento Kings
Potential Targets: Kira Lewis Jr., Aaron Nesmith, R.J. Hampton, Cole Anthony, Tyrese Maxey
At a certain point, what the Orlando Magic would be giving up would not be worth what they are getting back. What is the difference between picking 12th and 15th? There is a difference, but that difference likely gets a lot smaller.
And herein lies the problem with the Magic’s roster. They have a lot of above mid-level salaries that we have bandied about a lot here — Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon mostly. What they lack are mid-level contracts to get deals done.
Terrence Ross is probably the only one of real value the Magic have to offer. And he would be really tough to let go because of what he adds to the team. Other than that, they have Al-Farouq Aminu.
That is not exactly the most enticing package. But a lot of teams struggle to put together solid packages involving mid-level contracts.
The Sacramento Kings are an interesting team because of their frustrations with Buddy Hield. They have signaled they do not want to trade him at this point. And his salary is about to bump up to $24 million in 2021 (although his cap hit for the Draft is $4.9 million). That seems like they should be shopping him now trying to get off that money.
Orlando Magic
Magic fans have been very interested in Hield for sure. And there is something to it. Hield has a big-time scoring ability (or shooting ability) the Magic need. But he is not a primary creator. The Kings are souring on him some for his wild forays as a creator rather than sticking to a spot-up shooter and escape-dribble shooter.
The Magic could still use that. Although Hield may only be marginally better than Fournier. And at that price, it would be difficult to justify giving up so much.
In either case, Hield’s artificially low salary (at least until free agency starts) makes him difficult to trade for. A framework for a deal is not readily apparent.
13th Pick — New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans are reportedly open to trading Jrue Holiday and they have every contending team lineup up to try and get him.
Even though Holiday does not fit the Orlando Magic’s profile for size and length, his defensive grit would be a great addition to the team. But Nikola Vucevic is the only player on the Magic with a matching salary. And that would not be enough to get Holiday and the 13th pick.
There is not really a deal to be had between these two teams. The Pelicans are not trading away J.J. Redick after just hiring Stan Van Gundy. They certainly want something substantial if they are trading away Holiday. And the team is going to have to keep some flexibility with a big contract coming for Brandon Ingram.
14th Pick — Boston Celtics
Potential Targets: Kira Lewis, Saddiq Bey, Tyrese Maxey, R.J. Hampton, Cole Anthony
Things get interesting again with a team like the Boston Celtics. They have had an on-again, off-again interest in Nikola Vucevic. And the Magic might be the kind of team willing to take the one-year risk on Gordon Hayward with his massive contract.
That would be about the only thing of interest that could get either team to move. And even then, that might not be a whole lot.
At this point, trading up for just one spot is probably not a position where the Magic want to give up a ton. This is where the team should be focused on periphery players and trading away players on the back end of their cap sheet.
And this is the problem. Outside of Mohamed Bamba, they really do not have anyone like that. There are no mid-tier or mid-level contracts that are likely to get anyone excited enough to deal.
So the Magic would be stuck talking with the Celtics about Gordon Hayward. The only way to swap for players like Daniel Theis or Enes Kanter would be to involve Mohamed Bamba unless they want Al-Farouq Aminu.
That is a tough place to be. And one spot is probably not worth the cost.
Remember these are all merely frameworks. This is just looking at what a deal would look like as a starting point for the Magic to move up in the Draft.
What should become clear is how difficult the Magic would find it to swing a deal. Especially if they want to bring a veteran into the mix.
Trading up in the Draft will cost the Magic something. And doing so might well be an admission the team is going through a more formal rebuild.