The Orlando Magic will have the mid-level exception to spend in free agency this offseason. That limits their options, but there are still players to sign.
The Orlando Magic are not going to have much room to maneuver when free agency arrives.
The team has the fifth-highest payroll in the league for the 2020 season and has nearly $96 million guaranteed for next year. With the salary cap likely to fall near the 2020 mark of $115 million, Evan Fournier likely opting in will eat up $17 million of that space and Chuma Okeke and the draft pick’s rookie deals will eat up another $5-6 million, that will likely leave the Magic at or slightly above the salary cap.
Orlando should enter this offseason like it will be over the cap, leaving the team with only its mid-level exception — a salary slot of roughly $9 million — to spend in free agency.
If most of our offseason attention has been on the draft and finding trades throughout the league, this is why. The bulk of the Magic’s leg work this offseason will be spent shuffling the roster outside of free agency.
Of course, that does not mean free agency should be forgotten or that it cannot be a place where the Magic make improvements.
Last year, they added Al-Farouq Aminu on a three-year, $29.2-million. While Aminu struggled with injuries and his shot in his first year in Orlando, the move was still considered something of a splash. After all, Orlando convinced a starter from the Western Conference finalist Portland Trail Blazers to take a role off the bench behind Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac.
The move was questioned more for the fit and whether the Magic addressed more pressing needs on offense rather than the kind of player and talent the team was bringing in.
To be sure, though, Orlando will need to find a way to address needs more urgently in free agency. They can clearly get a high-level, starter-caliber player using even just the mid-level exception. But the focus for the Magic this offseason has to be on addressing needs and shortcomings on the roster.
Free agency is always a better place to do that than the Draft, where teams are frankly just looking for players who can contribute in any capacity so they can begin growing them internally.
Orlando may not be willing to spend the full nontaxpayer mid-level exception this time around just to try to keep some costs down. But the Magic still cannot let this period go by the wayside.
And Orlando has some major needs the team needs to try to address through free agency — whether it is a backup point guard as the team figures out what to do with free agents D.J. Augustin and Michael Carter-Williams or shooting and wing help.
The names the Magic will look at in free agency may not be the headline-grabbing kind. But there are still players the Magic can pursue on reasonable deals that can make their team better. Here are a few targets they can look at.
Shooters and Scorers: Jordan Clarkson
The Orlando Magic’s biggest need is shooting and scoring. They need players who can create for themselves, for others and hit from the outside. Finding that at the Magic’s price range is going to be difficult.
They might have to overpay for a player who is looking for a starting role but has not quite proven they can fill the role. Or use it on a super sixth man.
There are certainly a few players who fit that bill in this upcoming free agency class that would fill the Magic’s needs, fit their eye for length too.
Jordan Clarkson has long been known in the NBA for his scoring ability. Sometimes too much as he has often found himself on rebuilding teams that relied too much on his creation.
But last year was a breath of fresh air for him. He got traded to the Utah Jazz to try to boost their struggling bench and proceeded to average 15.6 points per game and 54.8-percent effective field goal percentage and 36.6-percent shooting from deep.
Clarkson shot 39.7-percent on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, placing him near the top quarter in the league in that category. But more importantly, teams think Clarkson can hit from the outside. According to statistics from Basketball Index, Clarkson ranked in the 91st percentile in the league in terms of gravity. Defenders did not leave him and respected his 3-point shooting.
Not only this, he was good at making difficult 3-pointers, adding to his team even when he shot contested shots.
According to NBA.com’s tracking statistics, Clarkson hit 40.0-percent of his 3-pointers when the closest defender as 0-2 feet away, although that number decreased to 27.3-percent when the defender was 2-4 feet away. Lest that number seem low, he made 53.6-percent of his 2-point field goals when the closest defender was 2-4 feet away.
The J-Notes
In many ways, this stat profile looks exactly like Terrence Ross. And like Ross, Clarkson probably works better off the bench in small doses.
Clarkson has made his name throughout his career as a high-volume shooter. He is in there to take shots. And as a sixth man, especially for the Jazz, it worked. Putting up points is what Clarkson does.
Clarkson may not have the same quick-release or shooting ability that Ross ultimately has, but he is a much better driver, creator and scorer.
He averaged 20.5 drives per 75 possessions and shot a 62.1-percent adjusted field goal percentage at the rim, according to Basketball Index.
There is not much else to say about Clarkson. He is not a great defender and he is a better passer than he gets credit for. But not enough of one to be a primary playmaker.
To be sure, chasing after Clarkson would be a sign the Magic are still all-in on making the Playoffs in 2021. It would mean the team believes they needed the shooting to get to the next level — or survive whatever other changes the team makes to the roster.
At this point, Clarkson would be a dream but probably do too much to duplicate what the Magic already get from Ross.
This at least sounds a bit more realistic than chasing after a guy like Carmelo Anthony, who would only be using the Magic as a vehicle to prove he is still a star.
Veteran Poise: Wesley Matthews
The Orlando Magic are likely still going to consider themselves a playoff team, at least to start the season, even despite Jonathan Isaac’s injury. Whether they can sell to free agents that they are still a playoff team — and a whole lot more — will be another question.
The Magic at least need to look for veterans to supplement their roster and provide the poise and skill they need to succeed.
This will go double if the Magic decide to let D.J. Augustin walk in free agency. Orlando will need a veteran to keep the team level and loose through the long NBA journey.
There are probably two veterans on this market who would make a real difference for this team.
The first is Paul Millsap. But making a long-term investment in him seems a bit off with the Magic’s glut at power forward.
The other is Wesley Matthews.
The 34-year-old guard is a bit undersized at 6-foot-4. But he makes up for that lack of size with defensive grit and long-range shooting ability. At this point in his career, he knows exactly who he is as a player and how he can contribute to a winning team.
Rip City Project
Matthews has done a good job proving he can still play even after he tore his Achilles in 2015.
Undoubtedly though, he is on something of a decline. Age is catching up to him.
He averaged only 7.4 points per game, the fewest of his career. He shot 36.4-percent from deep, shooting almost exclusively 3-pointers for the Milwaukee Bucks last year. He still started all 67 games he appeared in.
He is an efficient shooter, making 55-percent effective field goal percentage off screens. But his shooting is a bit streakier than his reputation might hold. And it has definitely started to decline. Matthews would be brought on for his intangibles and the moments his shooting is going well.
This past year, he did not do much driving. And the real value he adds is on the defensive end.
Despite his smaller size, Matthews is a tough defender. He is strong and has a solid base to knock off bigger defenders who try to post him up. Teams that try to hunt him on defense, usually are not successful.
This is part of what makes him an intriguing target. But he is another win-now move for the Magic. A player meant to help them stay afloat and take them over the top.
He is not a player on his own that will do that.
Boosting the Post: Aron Baynes
There is a growing current that the Orlando Magic will have to trade one of their biggest stars — either Nikola Vucevic or Aaron Gordon — to make any significant move. It is seemingly unlikely the Magic will get equal value.
Part of the calculus for the Magic will be having to plan and figure out which players will remain and which players are ready to step up into bigger roles with the time now arriving.
Especially when it comes to trading Vucevic. It is hard to see the team acquiring another star-caliber center. The question is finding a role player that could replace the starter minutes while still giving Mohamed Bamba the time to develop in a less pressured role. At least until he is ready.
A stop-gap center would become a priority if the Magic traded Vucevic in any capacity. So the team would have to be on the lookout for someone who can fill minutes and start as the team transitions away.
If the Magic trade Nikola Vucevic, Aron Baynes should be the team’s top target.
Baynes had a strong season for the Phoenix Suns last year, averaging 11.5 points per game and 5.6 rebounds per game. He made 35.1-percent of his 3-pointers. More than that, his physicality stands out. He is not afraid to mix things up, even if his rebound rate was fairly poor for a starting-caliber center.
Baynes is a solid shooter for a center. But those are still largely shots that defenses will allow. He made only 34.7-percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and still left open fairly frequently — on 30.5-percent of his 3-point attempts according to Basketball Index.
Hardwood Houdini
If the Magic are looking for 3-point shooting centers, they have one in Mohamed Bamba and another in Nikola Vucevic or could find perhaps a cheaper option in Meyers Leonard, although he probably would not be able to hold down the starting center spot.
Still, Baynes is a really good pick and roll player, creating a positive impact on both rolls and pops according to Basketball Index — +0.25 points per 75 possessions above the league average overall (+0.23 on rolls and +0.18 on pops). That marks better than Vucevic with Vucevic’s pop rating slightly higher.
Baynes is more willing to mix it up in the paint than Vucevic is even if he is not as proficient a shooter or scorer.
Baynes can deter players in the paint but his impact in protecting the rim is slightly negative — Vucevic rates better in this category.
There is a lot worse the Magic could do if they decided to move on from Vucevic. Baynes could fill the role even if he does not provide the same kind of offense or rebounding.
More importantly for the Magic’s consideration, Aron Baynes was a solid starter for the Suns during DeAndre Ayton’s 25-game suspension to start the season. Before Christmas, Baynes averaged 13.0 points per game and 5.3 rebounds per game while shooting 37.6-percent from three in those 21 games.
Herein lies part of the problem. He started in 15 of those 21 games and missed nine games with an injury. Baynes missed 15 games in January and February too. He ended up sitting out the resumption of the season, missing Phoenix’s stirring 8-0 run, because of a positive coronavirus diagnosis.
Durability is certainly a concern with Baynes. The Magic would only be acquiring him if they felt like he could share the starting role with Bamba. The plan would certainly be that they expected Bamba to take over the starting role at some point during the season.
The Magic signing any free agent center would be with in consideration that Bamba would be ready this season.
The Playmaker: Austin Rivers
The Orlando Magic absolutely needs more playmakers. If they are going to be moving away from D.J. Augustin, their second unit will lack a player who can create off the dribble and get into the paint.
Orlando certainly could use the draft to fix this problem. With all the point guards available in this draft — like Kira Lewis, Tyrese Maxey and Theo Maledon, for instance — they certainly could turn to a young player to feed the Magic’s second unit and play behind and alongside Markelle Fultz.
The Magic will have both D.J. Augustin and Michael Carter-Williams to handle in free agency. They likely could keep one — or both, honestly, with how uncertain this year’s free-agent market will be — but they will have to find a point guard somewhere.
An intriguing name that some Magic fans have already bandied about is bringing home Winter Park High School-alum Austin Rivers.
Rivers has still been something of an enigma throughout his career. Last year for the Houston Rockets, he averaged 8.8 points per game on a 51.7-percent effective field goal percentage. He shot 35.6-percent from beyond the arc, just the third time in his career he has shot better than 35-percent from beyond the arc. His 36.1-percent shooting on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers was only slightly better than the league median.
Hardwood Houdini
Rivers is merely a name that has a positive connotation to him. He has shown up in some big moments for his teams. For several playoff teams, he has displayed toughness and an ability to step up in big moments and do more than his role while still playing his role for a team.
Rivers’ impact is still largely intangible. He has not been able to put together a seemingly full season that would make completely good on his talent — or the name he has traded on.
Rivers may not be an absolutely great shooter or a great distributor. But he can still mix things up effectively for teams.
Rivers is good at getting to the rim, but not necessarily finishing at the rim. And he is not good at kicking out. When he gets himself going toward the basket, he is going to try to score. That is probably the mentality that has held him back and relegated him to this “enigma” status.
At this point, interest in Rivers is more about the name and perception around him rather than his actual production. But there is still plenty he can do and intangibles he brings to a team.
Second Draft: Justin Holiday
Whether it is through a trade or in free agency, the idea of the second draft is going to be an area the Orlando Magic are going to have to try to exploit.
The second draft is this concept where players — especially first-round picks — struggle with the team that drafted him but show enough flashes for a team to take a flyer on them. Acquiring Markelle Fultz was essentially a second draft acquisition from the Magic.
The idea is that a new setting and a new role can help unlock a player. This is probably what is behind the idea of acquiring Dennis Smith Jr. that has always captivated Magic fans — although now he is working on his third draft and that is essentially a last chance for even young players.
Orlando needs to be looking for bargains. The team needs to be looking for players who can grow.
While the names that I have put on this list in free agency are all good players. They are all players that are focused on helping the Magic win now and solidifying the 2021 team. It is not necessarily about the team’s long-term future.
To be sure, Orlando needs to have an eye on what the team will look like in 2021, but also in the years after. The next two offseasons will be about solidifying the team’s core with Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz set to enter free agency and move off their rookie contracts next offseason and then Mohamed Bamba the following offseason.
Finding younger players who still have growth potential on reasonable deals using part of the mid-level exception is going to be vital to this team.
So give Justin Holiday a look.
Soaring Down South
He averaged 8.3 points per game on a 56.6-percent effective field goal percentage, hitting 40.5-percent from beyond the arc. He has bounced around the league throughout his career, but he has started to find his footing in the last four years with the Chicago Bulls especially and last year with the Indiana Pacers.
Holiday is essentially trying to develop into a 3-and-D shooter that teams can rely upon off the bench.
The 6-foot-6 guard made 51.1-percent of his pull-up 3-pointers, placing him in the 96th percentile in the league, and 40.9-percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, putting him in the 79th percentile.
Holiday had a career shooting year last year. So there should be some warning with these numbers from last season. He is a career 36.0-percent 3-point shooter and last year’s 40-percent performance was the only year he shot better than 35-percent from deep.
Last year may end up being a career outlier. That would be the gamble in chasing him. But at least last year, he had gravity and took few open shots. He made them. So whether that is 3-point luck or not, Holiday showed he could be a solid 3-point shooter.
His defense is solid too. He has built up a reputation as a solid defender off the bench. He has good size to defend opposing shooting guards. He is adept at getting steals and being in passing lanes. But bigger players will be able to go at him.
Holiday at least breaks even if not comes out slightly ahead on that end.
If the Magic are looking for a low-key good signing. Holiday certainly fits the bill. He may not have the playoff experience or long-term consistency that someone like Wesley Matthews has. But at least if he is able to copy last year’s success, then Justin Holiday is as good as any other.
The Magic likely will pursue their free agency in younger up-and-coming players like Holiday. He feels like the most realistic target for the mid-level exception along with bolstering the front court with someone like Baynes if the Magic end up making a trade.