We are officially one month away from the NBA Draft. It is time to marshall the Orlando Magic’s draft board as they prepare for the big day.
The NBA season ended a week ago. The Disney campus has emptied. The arenas have been dismantled and the Los Angeles Lakers are still celebrating their title.
There is still a lot to get done before the 2021 season begins — namely collective bargaining to set the rules and salary cap for the season along with how long, when to start and on and on and on. But the offseason will begin and the teams will move closer to next season.
The next step in the process is the NBA Draft.
Teams everywhere had an extra five months to prepare for this draft. Assistant GM Matt Lloyd admitted on the Down the Road Podcast that they were guarding against paralysis by analysis when it came to the prospects thanks to the extra time. President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman said after the season ended that his team had largely done its draft work, tiering players into different subgroups as they set up their draft board.
The NBA Draft process is kicking into a new gear now. The league is allowing teams to conduct individual workouts with up to 10 players — only a prospect’s family and agent are allowed in (and they all have to be tested thoroughly under the NBA’s guidelines). These individual workouts will give teams the chance to coach and interact with players in real time rather than just conducting teleconference interviews.
This is an important stage in the draft process. The last little bits that will determine who the Magic take with both the 15th and 45th pick.
With the step the Magic are in for their rebuild — on the borderline of the playoffs and trying to improve — hitting on the draft in the middle of the first round is imperative. Adding another rotation-capable player in the second round.
This is an important draft indeed.
There is still one month to go to get all the final preparations done. One month to finalize that list that has been likely sitting in the Magic’s draft room and pored over every day for the last five months — and more.
We have done the mock draft already — about a month ago. That is a prediction of how the draft is likely or possibly will go. It is meant to predict who a team like the Magic would pick and present something resembling a real scenario.
But that is hardly useful. Teams go through their own mock drafting process. But what matters to them is their boards and their rankings.
This is an attempt to do that. This is the Magic’s big board.
This is a look at how the Magic should have their draft board set up, taking into account the talent and potential of the prospects and the team needs. These are my rankings based on my evaluation of the prospects and my evaluation of the Magic’s needs.
The Trade Up Candidates
Pros: The players at the top of this draft are not considered runaway stars. They are still the most talented players available in this draft. And I think LaMelo Ball is probably the clear-cut best prospect in this draft. His mix of speed, playmaking and scoring ability is probably not matched by anyone in this draft. Is there a safe bet in this draft for a star, it is him.
Cons: Ball’s shooting is still a major question mark. He definitely can hit from the outside, but he is not consistent from there yet. He struggled some in his first professional run in Australia — a league that is quickly gaining in notoriety and respect around the world. His upside is high, but if he does not hit as a lead guard, his potential role depends on his attitude and acceptance of a role.
Pros: The Orlando Magic’s undoubted need for scoring is at the top of this draft board list. Edwards was an elite scorer. He was able to get to the basket at will and finish with athleticism at the rim. Edwards is the top pick on a lot of boards for a reason.
Cons: Edwards is not a good shooter at all. He shot worse than 30-percent from three at Georgia and only 77.2-percent from the foul line. He tends to take a lot of inefficient shots too. So if he is not the team’s starring player, I think there are real questions about what he gives the team.
Pros: James Wiseman might be the model for a modern center. He is 7-foot-1 and just a supreme athlete. He moves well around the basket and has great mobility. He can fly to the basket and either finish at the rim or challenge shots at the rim. As a lane rover, Wiseman is the ideal for rim-protecting centers.
Cons: Wiseman just has not played a lot of basketball. He played only three games last year before NCAA suspension forced him to sit out. He still needs to get the defensive discipline that most young centers need to get to be a true defensive force. Wiseman also probably does not have range beyond the paint, limiting how teams can build around.
Pros: The Lakeland-born French swing guard has a lot of the tools the Orlando Magic like. At 6-foot-8 he is a skilled ball-handler and point guard. He can make a lot of difficult passes and is very unselfish for a player of his skill.
Cons: Hayes is still improving as a shooter and a scorer. Those are not his first instincts, which is fine. But he can overpass or make the difficult pass rather than the simple one. He is not an explosive athlete either and he still needs to put on weight to deal with stronger players at the next level.
Pros: Like Killian Hayes, Tyrese Haliburton is an oversized point guard at 6-foot-5 who has good speed and playmaking to play the position at his height. He averaged 6.5 assists per game. Offensively, he shot 41.9-percent from beyond the arc. That is a good sign of his potential at the next level and filling a need for the Magic.
Cons: His shot is promising, but it is a little flat. There is some concern about how he will be able to get that shot off at the next level. Like many taller guards, he has to put on strength before really excelling at the next level. And defensively, he has never been called on to be solid on that end, although the tools are certainly there.
The Real Targets
Pros: Aaron Nesmith is perhaps the best shooter in the Draft, scoring 20-plus points per game with effective field goal and true shooting percentages better than 60-percent with a usage rate greater than 25-percent. It is rare to find players who dominate the ball at that rate. More impressively, he did this in an offense tailor-made for him with NBA play sets from coach Jerry Stackhouse.
Cons: Nesmith had a stress fracture in his left foot and has not played since December. He should be good to go by the time the season starts, but that is still a long time off and few teams will be able to see him on a court in any capacity before then. Nesmith works great off the ball, but he is not a great scorer off the dribble.
Pros: Deni Avdija is a versatile forward who plays under control and can do a lot of different skills very well. He is a good shooter. He can drive and pull-up for shots. He defends well. He passes well. This is the Jack-of-all-trades prospect of this group. He played well in Israel, a very well-thought-of league.
Cons: While Avdija is very good at a lot of different things, there is no one skill anyone can say he is elite at. He has to prove he can do all those skills at a NBA level. All while building up his frame more to play bigger players in the NBA and while continuing to improve as a shooter.
Pros: Quietly, Onyeka Okongwu might be the best defensive player in this draft. He averaged 8.6 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per game. His ability to finish around the basket also led him to score 16 points per game. He is a garbage man who works great around the basket doing all the dirty, grimy work that teams need to succeed in general. Every team needs guys who just want to be physical.
Cons: Okongwu does not have much of an offensive game outside of his putbacks and work around the basket. If a team is drafting him, it is merely just for his defensive ability and energy on the glass. That can be valuable. But it certainly puts a cap on how teams can use him.
Pros: Devin Vassell is considered one of the most complete and NBA-ready prospects in this Draft. He is a great shooter — 41.5-percent shooting from deep — and is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. He checks every box the Orlando Magic like with his length and athleticism.
Cons: He is not much of a creator and driver, although he is better than people give him credit for on that front. Vassell is not about to become a superstar player in all likelihood. Then came that fated video of him shooting from last week. His shot became a slingshot style that had a lot of people concerned. It did not seem like Vassell needed to remake his shot.
Pros: R.J. Hampton was one of the top high school prospects in the class of 2019 and parlayed that into a deal with an Australia team where he got a baptism by fire and lessons in professionalism. He has a great first step and can get to the basket. He is an explosive playmaker on that front and the potential is there.
Cons: He certainly got humbled in his lone year in Australia. He struggled to shoot and struggled to find consistency. His shot is a major concern. But he reportedly worked with Mike Miller during the pandemic. And that has produced encouraging results. Hampton will have to learn how to play a role and not try to take over all the time though. He tends to settle for mid-range shots rather than getting to and finishing at the rim consistently.
Pros: Cole Anthony is like R.J. Hampton where he is still trading off his high school projections. He was one of the best players in his high school class because of his athleticism and ability to get to the rim. He is a very good driver and scorer. That is still his best skill.
Cons: Anthony struggled with a foot injury and had a poor year at North Carolina. That context is important. But he is perhaps too much of a scorer to be a lead guard. And he is not nearly good enough of a shooter to get away with that too. He has to bring up his other point guard skills, although some of that will come with experience since he is such a good driver.
Rising and Falling
Pros: This year’s award for super athletic, long forward who everyone thinks they can mold into whatever they want is Isaac Okoro! This is the same kind of player the Orlando Magic have drafted in two of the last three years. Isaac Okoro is definitely a Jeff Weltman draft pick. Okoro is a solid defender because of his athleticism and he can finish well at the rim.
Cons: Okoro is still rudimentary offensively. He is raw and is not a great scorer or shooter quite yet. He is just merely a bundle of energy. Most guys of his type are comfortably forwards. But at 6-foot-6, Okoro will have to play down to guard at times. And he shot only 28.6-percent from deep.
Pros: Tyrell Terry is a great shooter, making 40.8-percent of his 3-pointers this season. That is his best skill entering the next level. This guy is a scorer. And in a Draft with limited person-to-person information, defined skills seem to be climbing. That is why Terry seems to be generating some buzz. Teams can bank on his shooting.
Cons: Terry does not have a lot of point guard skills for a player his size. He is not really making plays for others. And his slight frame is of concern as he tries to make it to the next level. At 6-foot-3, he is probably too small physically to play off guard too often.
Pros: Saddiq Bey comes from Villanova, so everyone knows he will be a tough defender and a smart player. That is very true with Bey, our pick for the Orlando Magic in our latest mock draft. He is an efficient shooter and just a smart player overall.
Cons: There is no star potential here. He is not going to create for himself and he is going to have to fashion himself as a three-and-D player. The bigger concern with me is that he is big in a bad way for a player his size. I wonder if he has the lateral quickness to be a top defender at the next level.
Pros: Like Isaac Okoro, Patrick Williams is the versatile forward that is all athleticism and potential and not any particular skills yet. That is probably why I have him — and Isaac Okoro and Obi Toppin — so low on my Orlando Magic-specific board. He is a great athlete and already a solid defender who knows how to use that athleticism. The Florida State pedigree helps a ton.
Cons: He is still figuring out what he can do offensively. And when he is not in an athletic situation, his value decreases dramatically, especially offensively. Williams shot only 45.2-percent from the floor overall and 32.0-percent from beyond the arc.
Pros: Length and athleticism are seemingly requirements for the Orlando Magic to make a draft pick. And Kira Lewis has that, seemingly the ideal point guard fit for this team as they try to look ahead. He is really good at getting to and finishing at the rim, using that athleticism and speed to its fullest power. He would certainly fit the Magic’s desire to play at a faster pace.
Cons: He is not much of a playmaker and passer, averaging only 5.2 assists per game. Although that was a big bump up from his freshman year totals. there is room for growth there. Much of Lewis’ game remains his straight line-drive speed. He has to improve in pick and rolls and reading set defenses.
Pros: Tyrese Maxey is very similar to Kira Lewis Jr. He is a speedy guard who can get into the lane and attack the basket well. He creates good space and has a knack for scoring. That is all a good sign for his NBA prospects. Maxey also is a solid defender and has the physical attributes the Magic like with his length.
Cons: But, also like Lewis, he is not much of a playmaker as a point guard, averaging 3.2 assists per game. That is not encouraging that he will be able to make the plays he needs to at the NBA level. Unlike Kira Lewis, his shot is a major concern. Maxey shot just 29.2-percent from deep. That is a big concern for him getting to the next level.
Outside Chance
Pros: Precious Achiuwa was part of Memphis’ super freshman class that was supposed to bring the next wave of Kentucky dominance to Penny Hardaway’s Memphis squad. That fell apart with James Wiseman getting declared ineligible. Precious Achiuwa though stepped in admirably and displayed his versatility and athleticism as the center for the team. He averaged 15.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game.
Cons: Achiuwa is good and active around the basket. But he still shot only 49.3-percent from the floor and he was not much of a shot blocker. He has not figured out how to use all that athleticism to be an impact player defensively yet. The other question that remains is whether he can play center full time. Although, that positional nomenclature is not as important anymore.
Pros: I am admittedly much lower on Obi Toppin than everyone else. I honestly cannot explain why (although I will try). He is going to go in the top-10 of this Draft. He is just the one guy who does not fit my eye for whatever reason. Toppin is a great athlete who put on some incredible dunks in the open court. He has the size and length that could translate.
Cons: While he put up impressive stats last year at Dayton, he was a really late bloomer who seemingly came out of nowhere. That part is encouraging that he could grow. But he does not have a lot of half-court offensive skills. He is not a particularly good shooter. And his growth was seemingly as much about his athleticism coming together in astounding ways. I am just not sold this translates well to the NBA like the other athletes in this class.
Pros: The Orlando Magic’s need for scoring should have them scanning the 3-point field goal percentage column and points-per-game column in their review of prospects. And that should have them land on Jahmi’us Ramsey. Ramsey averaged 15.0 points per game and shot 42.6-percent from beyond the arc. Those are both good numbers seieng that efficiency on a high-volume scorer.
Cons: At 6-foot-4, Ramsey is on the small end. he definitely does not check those boxes for the Magic especially. It may be hard to see him being much more than a spot-up shooter at the NBA level. He is not beating anyone off the dribble or hitting pull-up shots efficiently enough to be on teh ball very much. And he is definitely not a point guard.
Pros: Theo Maledon was my pick for the Orlando Magic in my first mock draft. He is a quality player who held his own in the French league. He plays within himself and does a good job using his positioning and first step to create space. He plays under control and that kind of maturity is a big thing for a young player.
Cons: But Maledon probably does not have much of a ceiling. He does not possess a ton of athleticism or a particularly quick first step. He probably tops off as a backup in a slower offense. That probably is not what the Magic are looking for despite his size.
That is my current Magic-centric big board. There will surely be one more mock draft (at least) before the NBA Draft in November!