Orlando Magic’s offense still the team’s biggest problem

The Orlando Magic have to break down their past as they prepare for their future. The 2020 season showed hints of progress but more offensive trouble.

The Orlando Magic spent six years in the wilderness as they tried to rebuild following the trade of Dwight Howard.

Losing a superstar can be a devastating moment for any franchise. The team lost a player from its Mt. Rushmore in soul-crushing fashion. There was very little the team could get in return that would make up for this loss. They hoped the Lottery would deliver.

It did not. And mismanagement and poor coaching and development prevented the Magic from taking any significant step back into contention — even for the playoffs.

A general manager and six years later, the Magic were still trying to figure out who they wanted to be and the kind of team they would be.

Jeff Weltman took over and made rebuilding the organization and its bones his priority — even if that meant some window dressing with players he inherited. Hiring Steve Clifford was meant to give the team a foundation. They would play a certain way and it would give them the stability to grow at last.

No one should be able to argue with those long-term results so far. The Magic have made the playoffs in back-to-back years and have established at least the contours of an identity they can build upon.

Of course, the team failed to meet the new standard it has made for itself. After going 42-40 in the 2019 season, the team at least matched its regular-season consistency at 33-40 (injuries gutted the team some) and returned to the playoffs. But the same five-game first-round exit left a sour taste.

Yes, the Magic acquitted themselves better in this second playoff appearance. But the result was the same. And now the optimism of a fresh playoff team has descended to the uncertainty of a repeat performer.

Orlando is asking itself how does it get better?

The easy answer is with the team’s offense. The Magic ranked 23rd in the league in offensive rating and near the bottom of the league for most offensive categories.

Undoubtedly the most glaring need facing the Magic is their need to find shooting and more offensive weapons. With the team establishing a strong defensive foundation, the Magic have to put some investment and focus in easing the margin for error with some offensive firepower.

The team once again showed some hints of offensive acumen with the way the team finished the season– at least before the pandemic.

Today, we will look at the team’s offensive numbers and where thing slipped and hints of where things might have gone right.

Offensive Rating

The Orlando Magic’s offense is the biggest trouble spot for the team. Everyone recognizes this is the team’s biggest weakness. They finished this season 23rd in offensive rating. The Magic have not finished in the top half of the league in offensive rating since Dwight Howard was at center eight years ago.

Figuring out how to build a working offense has been a struggle for the team. And, as we will see when we get into some of the shooting numbers, it all goes back to being able to hit from the outside. The Magic do not have any dominant scorers or enough shooting to spread the floor.

The Magic may have built at least a decent defense, but coach Steve Clifford is right too that the only way the team can take a step forward is to be in the top half of the league offensively.

To his credit, and to this team’s credit, they seem to figure something out around the All-Star Break.

The Magic’s offense took off once again this year after the All-Star Break, posting a 115.1 offensive rating after the break this year.

There were several reasons for this — a commitment to playing faster, better shooting and the normal increase in scoring that comes at the end of the season. The Magic found their rhythm and played with a hint of desperation.

The Magic struggled to carry over their strong offense from the end of the 2019 season into 2020. And it took them nearly the entire season to figure things out for 2020. Maybe those lessons will help them when next season starts.

There is a good offensive team in there for the Magic. But so far, they have not shown they can do it for more than that post-All-Star-Break stretch.

Pace

Pace has been an obsession for this Magic team as they try to build and grow their offense. It is something they talk about endlessly as a necessary part of improving their offense.

Indeed, there is a correlation this year with the team’s increased pace and the team’s increased offensive rating after the All-Star Break. That same correlation did not exist last year.

Orlando Magic

Pace alone is not likely to change the Magic’s offensive fortunes. And the pace described here is merely possessions per 48 minutes. This is typically not what coaches refer to when they talk about pace. Rather they put their focus on how quickly and intensely they move through their offensive sets.

And certainly playing quicker within half-court sets will create the intensity the Magic need to get easier shots. But playing faster and with more possessions would also help with the personnel the Magic have.

Some of the change and transition Magic fans want to see though still come down to pace in terms of number of possessions. Fans want to see the team play a more up-tempo style. there is something to that for sure.

Markelle Fultz is better at a faster pace where he has the freedom to get up the floor. The Magic’s length, defensive acumen and lack of shooting also would suggest playing faster would be better.

But pace alone is not going to solve the team’s problems.

However, pace remains an important element. It is not necessarily a correlation to better offense. But the Magic need to be better at creating fast-break opportunities — the team finished the season 20th in the league with 11.9 fast-break points per game.

For a team that does not have a ton of shooting, getting easy baskets is vital. And there are no easier baskets than shots at the rim. So a pace reinvention is certainly something the team has to consider.

Effective Field Goal Percentage

The real issue the Orlando Magic face is their shooting. No matter how you measure it — looking at offensive rating or looking at field goal percentages — they struggle to shot the ball. They are below the NBA’s median by significant margins on a regular basis.

As most Magic fans would say, and the numbers agree, shooting is the biggest thing holding the team back. Their offense simply cannot get going with the long swaths of time where the team simply is unable to hit shots consistently.

Just look at how poor the Magic shot the ball before the All-Star Break this season — 49.4-percent effective field goal percentage is genuinely poor. It is not easy to be that bad.

The Magic eventually recover and get to at least the league’s median number after the All-Star Break. Is that a matter of rhythm or comfort or desperation? The Magic have had this happen now in two consecutive seasons.

Figuring out why the Magic were able to turn the corner later in the season and not at the beginning of the season is the biggest concern facing Steve Clifford. It might be the biggest criticism anyone could levy at him at the moment.

But the team’s inconsistent shooting — which pops up in the playoffs more than anywhere else when teams are forcing the Magic to play to their weaknesses — is the biggest thing holding back any offensive breakthrough.

If there is a skill the Magic need to add to be more competitive, it is shooting. That is why it will be difficult to let D.J. Augustin or Evan Fournier or Nikola Vucevic or Terrence Ross go. Those players are the only reliable 3-point shooters on the team.

Getting more shooters is priority one if the Magic are looking to add skills to the team rather than simply collect talent.

Free Throw Rate

Secretly, one area that has held the Orlando Magic’s offense back since Dwight Howard’s departure has been the team’s unable to get to the foul line. The Magic have had some of the worst free-throw rates in the league since that time.

Free throw rate — free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts — is not necessarily correlated with winning or even good offense. The San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics have long been low on the free-throw rate lists but still post strong offenses. But without great outside shooting, the Magic are playing with another hand behind their back when they cannot get easy baskets at the rim.

Last year, it was just generally a problem. Even when the Magic offense zoomed ahead after the All-Star Break, they were not getting to the foul line.

The good news this year was that the Magic, while still ranking in the bottom-10 of the league, started to get to the foul line more. This could be an area within the offense the Magic try to develop more.

Markelle Fultz forced more action and was able to get to the foul line a bit more and Aaron Gordon was more aggressive getting to the foul line. Terrence Ross was good at drawing fouls on his 3-point attempts.

This was an area the Magic showed some improvement in. Still, Orlando does not have many players forcing drives and forcing the kind of rotations that will create free throw opportunities. Nikola Vucevic has an appallingly low free throw rate for a center. It is probably the biggest criticism of his offense.

Finding a way to get easy shots from the foul line and forcing some action to get to the foul line would be a big piece of the team’s increased pace and offensive improvement. This is a part of the game the Magic need to attack more and grow as they try to grow their offense.

That much was proven this year when the team’s offensive rating rose with the team’s free throw rate.

There are a lot of elements that will be needed to improve the Magic’s offense. Shooting is certainly at the heart of a lot of it.

But the Magic knew the offense would be a problem. They never imagined it would be better than the top half of the league. So perhaps Orlando found something it can grow and build around entering next season.

The quieter but more troubling concern might be on defense. And that is what we will analyze in our next post.