Yes, we are very excited for Orlando Magic basketball’s return. But the road through the seeding schedule will be difficult and difficult to predict.
Excuse the tongue-in-cheek title to this post. But like everyone else we are really excited to see basketball back.
There are still huge issues for the NBA to overcome and address. The coronavirus has not gone away and spread at least partially through players within the league — 16 of the 302 tests the league conducted came back positive.
The NBA will try to enter its Disney campus as clear as it can. But everyone understands the reality there are holes in the system and the protocols they created are designed to plug those holes before they get too big.
Additionally, the league is going to try to address issues of social injustice while they are in the campus setting. The NBPA and NBA have announced they will partner where they can to keep awareness up while teams are sequestered at their Disney hotels.
The cynical person — who is probably correct — will also acknowledge that all these gestures and overtures toward safety and social injustice might be genuine but it is also a front for the real motivation behind the end of the season. The league needs to save some financial face and recoup at least some of the lost revenue from the halted season and the incident with China in the preseason.
The Playoffs are the league’s biggest moneymaker with their TV partners. And so it is fair to say on some level that this return-to-play plan at Disney is a make-good for the television partners.
Players, teams and fans alike will have to keep all these things in mind as the games resume July 30. All the weighty and real issues do not go away.
But the excitement for basketball still is hard to suppress. Having basketball on TV — and possibly all day for nearly two weeks — is a hard thing not be eager for.
The Orlando Magic will still have a lot to play for when they hit the floor on July 31. They trail the Brooklyn Nets by a half-game for the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference and they have to stay 1.5 games clear of the Washington Wizards to avoid a play-in game.
Even though the Magic’s championship hopes are dim — if not nearly non-existent — these final eight games plus whatever the Playoffs look like will be vital for the team’s development.
So, yes, tongue planted firmly in cheek here are the eight games we are excited to see as the season gets set to resume.
We are excited for all eight games.
July 31 — vs. Brooklyn Nets (2:30 p.m.)
There are a few truths that we are going to have to realize about the “bubble.”
The long layoff is going to make everything feel like the lockouts from 1999 and 2012. And while players have done their best to keep themselves in shape, it is going to take some time to get players back up to speed and back in rhythm.
Expect the basketball to be a little rough, especially in the beginning. Expect some low scores as teams figure things out.
That should theoretically give a team like the Orlando Magic a small advantage. They are 10th in the league in defensive rating, giving up 108.7 points per 100 possessions. That is something the Magic certainly could stand to improve upon.
But that is also where the re-training camp is going to be a big boost. Most coaches spend their training camp fine-tuning their defense. They can establish their team’s rules and practice rotations.
Coach Steve Clifford said coaches tend to expect defensive slippage as the year goes on. They usually need a few days to get things right.
A re-beginning to training camp could give the team the refocus it needs to find its defense.
In the first eight games this season, the Magic posted a 101.3 defensive rating (sixth in the league). That was after the team really figured out how to defend following last year’s Playoff run. The team definitely came out with that kind of focus.
Brooklyn Nets
It is no guarantee though. The Magic struggled as they tried to grasp Clifford’s defensive concepts in the first eight games of the 2019 season — 111.0 defensive rating.
As always, eight games is an extremely small sample size. And the first couple of weeks of the season are usually random. That explains the uncertainty over these entire eight games. Predicting them is going to be nearly impossible.
Defense is going to be the only thing anyone can bet on. And so the Magic have to make sure they are sharp defensively coming out of training camp.
Their first test happens to be the most important game in the bubble.
The Orlando Magic trail the Brooklyn Nets by a half-game. And while there is a second matchup on the horizon, the winner of this opening game gets control over the 7-seed for the rest of the bubble. That advantage will be critical.
The Nets actually rank ahead of the Magic in defensive rating by a small bit. These are two teams who do not have incredible individual defenders, but they can band together and get stops. And both games to this point were very close.
The question might come down to what decided that first game. The Nets’ 3-point shooting. Brooklyn made only 10 of 47 3-pointers in that loss. Markelle Fultz scored a career-best 25 points to give the magic distance in the fourth quarter.
The Nets are a high-volume 3-point shooting team but like the Magic can struggle to score — 51.5-percent effective field goal percentage.
This game is about as close to a toss-up as it can get. And there is no stat I can come up with to predict how this one would go.
Yet, it is the most vital game of the bubble and will determine where the Nets and Magic go from there. And further complicating things is the Magic playing a rare afternoon game — and those rarely look great for teams inexperienced playing them.
The edge, for now, goes to the team with the better playmakers and scorers. That is probably still Spencer Dinwiddie, but you can coin flip this game — and probably the second one too.
August 2 — vs. Sacramento Kings (6 p.m.)
The Orlando Magic’s schedule gives them a few advantages. Half of their games are against some of the select teams that are under .500 in the NBA’s bubble — the Brooklyn Nets twice, the New Orleans Pelicans and the Sacramento Kings.
That does not mean they are easy. But these are the exact teams the Magic have been very good at defeating throughout the course of the season.
Orlando has a stellar 25-9 record against teams with records worse than .500. The Magic have largely been good at beating the teams they are supposed to.
This is why the upcoming schedule before the season went on hiatus was so tantalizing. The Magic were getting ready to face the very teams they have beaten the most. Orlando probably felt it was about to not only take over the 7-seed but put some serious distance between the team and Brooklyn.
Sacramento Kings
All that goes to the side now. As much as we want to draw from the season as it happened before the league went on hiatus, there is no clear indication teams will pick up right where they left off. They just hope they will be able to pick up the same good habits.
The Magic’s disciplined and methodical style — as much as they try to pick up the pace — could prove to be of some benefit. At least on defense.
And this second game is going to test the Magic’s ability to stick to its defensive discipline and find a way to control pace.
The Kings no longer play at the break-neck pace they did a few years ago. They do a good job spreading the floor with shooters and De’Aaron Fox is the exact kind of speedy point guard that gives the Magic problems.
The Kings are slightly below the league average in both offensive and defensive rating.
The first matchup in Sacramento between these two teams was a back-and-forth affair the Magic largely controlled. But Nemanja Bjelica kept hitting threes — 34 points on eight 3-pointers — and De’Aaron Fox proved difficult to contain.
He erased a late seven-point deficit on his own, forcing the Magic to rely on Aaron Gordon’s heroics with a putback layup to eke out the win.
The Magic will have to have a lot of 3-point discipline. But that is a hallmark of Steve Clifford’s defenses — although not so much this season — and they will need to establish Nikola Vucevic in the post well. The Kings have a lot of big bodies to throw at him, but no one that should scare the Magic’s big man.
By this second game, the Magic should know how these seeding games are going to go. They will need to see their defense control the tempo of games and stand tall to have the kind of success they want.
The Nets will be a battle of will. This will be a battle of poise and composure.
August 4 — vs. Indiana Pacers (6 p.m.)
The Orlando Magic’s biggest weakness this season has been the inability to win big games. Yes, the Magic scored big wins over the Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies right before the break. They can count on wins against the Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers (twice) in their ledger.
But that is pretty much the extent of the Magic’s marquee wins. Their five wins against teams with record better than .500 are the fewest among teams in the bubble.
Of course, all those under-.500 teams are largely gone from the schedule — they still fill half the Magic’s schedule. But this sprint to the finish is going to test the Magic’s ability to play against the very best teams in the league.
Fortunately for them, perhaps, they are easing into it somewhat. The Nets game is vitally important and the Kings are a competitive team but not nearly at the level of the Playoff teams remaining on the schedule.
The Pacers though are a team that might be kind of in the sweet spot. A team the Magic should be able to truly measure themselves against.
That is how Orlando felt when Indiana visited the Amway Center in November. Players all talked about needing to win those early-season games against teams at their same level.
Indiana Pacers
And they fell short. The Pacers won 109-102. Coach Steve Clifford called out his team’s poor defensive intensity in the game. The Magic had relied on their defense plenty to that point in the season and it let them down as Malcolm Brogdon fired mid-range jumper after mid-range jumper.
The second meeting in Indianapolis two weeks later went much the same way. Indiana won that game 111-106, gaining some distance late.
Orlando was still struggling to measure up to a team like Indiana. The Pacers are something of a model the Magic want to follow — with Victor Oladipo the clear difference between the teams at the moment.
The Magic have not seen the Pacers though since that early stage of the season. Brogdon missed much of the rest of the season but he should be fine to play now that time has passed before the season resumed (he should also be recovered from testing positive for COVID-19 by the time the games begin).
Oladipo still has not committed to playing as he continues his recovery from his injury. He has been in and out of the lineup throughout the year.
But the Pacers have kept on chugging along. Anchored by Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner in the post and one of the best defenses in the league — seventh by defensive rating.
The Pacers do not have any single dominant scorer or player. They break teams down defensively and with crisp passing and discipline. They are in many ways readymade for this kind of setting.
But they could also fall apart without that one key player to drive them forward. Same as the Magic.
August 5 — vs. Toronto Raptors (8 p.m.)
The Orlando Magic have a long history it seems with the Toronto Raptors.
The Playoff series last year did a lot to influence this year’s team in so many ways. The series inspired and matured the Magic in a lot of ways. It also haunted them, changing some of their attack after the way the Raptors deconstructed them.
Some of those changes have been undoubtedly good. Some of them have been undoubtedly bad. This team was still going through a learning experience.
But the Raptors remained a difficult matchup. But not for the reason people think.
Pascal Siakam averaged only 17.3 points and 11.0 rebounds per game. Of course, all three of those games featured Jonathan Isaac. Isaac’s defensive acumen has always given Siakam special trouble.
Part of the Raptors’ strategy in that Playoff series last year was to get Isaac into foul trouble and out of the game. That is how they attacked and how they won.
Toronto Raptors
Instead what the Raptors were able to do against the Magic this year is bully Nikola Vucevic again and hit three-pointers from the guard spot. Kyle Lowry scored 26 points in the opening 104-95 win in the third game of the season. The Magic faded late in that game and relied on Isaac to carry the team defensively — and even offensively that game.
The second game featured the injuries to the Magic’s key players in Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. It almost felt like a wash. The third game saw Norman Powell score 33 points in another easy win.
That is the thing about this Raptors team, they always find guys to score. Never questioning the heart of a champion or something like that. The Raptors have put in an incredible season.
It is all these varied weapons and the basketball intelligence of their players that have allowed them to best the Magic over and over again. They are so solid on defense and able to turn that defense into quick offense. They quickly pounce on any mistake.
The Magic and Raptors though played each other three times before December. They have not seen each other in a long time. And Orlando is a different team since then just as Toronto is a different team.
Serge Ibaka is more the full-time starter and Marc Gasol comes off the bench. And if photos are to be believed, Gasol is a lot slimmer than he was during the season.
Orlando certainly wants a measure of redemption against Toronto and a second playoff series would be intriguing without Kawhi Leonard sucking up so much attention. But the Magic very much need Isaac to match up with this team.
August 7 — vs. Philadelphia 76ers (6:30 p.m.)
This game and this matchup are stock full of intriguing storylines. The Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers undoubtedly have a long list of similarities and grievances against each other. This was a surprising selection for national TV. But one that does make some sort of sense.
First, a few notes.
The Magic have not had a regular-season TNT game since 2011 when LeBron James dropped 53 points on an unsuspecting Earl Clark. The team has been out of the national spotlight for a long time.
Second, the Magic have precious few wins against teams with winning records — just five. But two of them came against the Philadelphia 76ers. And both were fairly convincing actually.
Orlando rallied in the fourth quarter defeat Philadelphia 112-97 without Joel Embiid on Nov. 13. Then in December, the Magic held off a late scoring binge from Embiid to win 98-97. But the Magic had that game well in hand before Embiid started hitting a barrage of threes.
Orlando actually has a pretty good history against Philadelphia — the two teams split last year’s matchups with the home team winning every game.
Philadelphia 76ers
The key to this matchup is how the Magic handle Ben Simmons. Simmons averages only 11.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game in his career against the Magic. Both Jonathan Isaac and Aaron Gordon have done a great job containing Simmons.
Considering what a mess Philadelphia has been and the team’s lack of shooting, this is the exact kind of team the Magic really do well again. They play right into the elements the Magic are typically good at defending.
Of course, the real story and the real reason this game probably got a national TV bid is that this was supposed to be Markelle Fultz’s first regular-season game back in Philadelphia. That reunion with the Philly faithful will have to wait a year.
But this is also a great game to showcase how much Fultz has grown. The 76ers do not have a natural point guard, ceding ball-handling duties to Simmons. Markelle Fultz would have to go up against Josh Richardson, a very good defender.
The 76ers have a ton of length with the big lineups they throw out there. That is the difficulty in facing them.
But Philadelphia has largely underperformed expectations. The 76ers are still sixth in the league in defensive rating and that is the tough nut to crack.
Philadelphia is the wild card in this bubble. Their defense is certainly good enough to give them a chance to win. And if teams are slower to shoot well that plays to their advantage too.
The Magic remain a tough matchup for them. If Orlando needs to steal a win, this is the one the team has to get.
August 9 — vs. Boston Celtics (5 p.m.)
If the Orlando Magic are able to get to seventh in the Eastern Conference, they will have some advantage in getting able to see and face the two teams they would likely face in the Playoffs.
The Toronto Raptors are a bad matchup for the Orlando Magic because of their length and size in the inside. They are able to take the Magic out of their offense.
The Boston Celtics? It is a little trickier to figure out why they present the Magic so many problems. But in two previous matchups this year — including a nationally televised game in early February — the Celtics just flat-out dominated.
Boston won the first game in Orlando 109-98 behind Kemba Walker’s 37 points and six 3-pointers. Evan Fournier scored 30 points, but the Magic shot just 40.0 percent for the game. It was just not Orlando’s day.
The game in Boston a few weeks later was more competitive. Aaron Gordon went toe to toe with Jayson Tatum for three quarters, scoring 23 points and 10 rebounds for the game. Evan Fournier had another 28 in the game.
But Tatum was too good. He had 33 in the game. And again Gordon Hayward put in a solid game after scoring 28 in the first meeting, he had 23 in the second.
The Celtics are dynamic offensively. If you squeeze one part of their offense, they have players who can burst out the other end.
Walker historically has torched the Magic. His ability to stop and hit mid-range jumpers on the pick and roll negates the Magic’s dropping scheme. If the guard is not able to get around the screen, Walker will pop for three.
Tatum’s big game in the second meeting was a rare outburst for him. Like with Ben Simmons, the Magic have done a good job on Jayson Tatum historically. Tatum has averaged only 12.1 points per game against the Magic in his career. Gordon typically does a good job.
What was really surprising though about the two games the Magic played was how ineffective Nikola Vucevic was against them.
If the Magic have one advantage — and perhaps a preference to play the Celtics — it is because they have that size advantage in the post. But Vucevic scored only 29 points and grabbed 22 rebounds against the Celtics in two games this season.
Boston has smart defensive players and the team’s defensive schemes seem to bother the Magic a lot — outside of Fournier. This is the puzzle the team has to solve if they match up with the Celtics.
August 11 — vs. Brooklyn Nets (1 p.m.)
To be real, the Orlando Magic’s entire time in the bubble will likely get determined by the results of the two games against the Brooklyn Nets.
Win both and the 7-seed is all but guaranteed. Lose both, and the team is probably concerned about playing in the play-in game.
That first game is going to be critical in building momentum and confidence. Win that game and the second game against the Sacramento Kings, and the team is probably riding high into the difficult middle part of the resumed schedule.
Lose that game, and the Kings game becomes a must-win. And so too does this game.
Both the Magic and Nets face relatively easier schedules and plenty of teams at the bottom end of the bubble. But the reality is the Magic and Nets are both teams that should not be able to “count” on any wins. I hope that viewing my predictions — as rough and unscientific as they are — lets you know how uncertain everything feels.
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There are going to be a lot of close games in the bubble — or complete blowouts, it is hard to predict — and it feels like so many of these games are pure toss-ups. Some of that is because we have no clue what kind of shape or rhythm the teams will be in.
The hope is by game seven, everyone will start looking like they are in playoff form. The real hope is that this game will not matter.
But the reality is the Magic and Nets are probably going to need this head to head matchup. With a half-game separating them already, tiebreaker no longer matters. But this is essentially a Playoff game.
All these games might feel like Playoff games. But with the pressure of the end of the seeding games, this game will really feel like a Playoff game. The stakes could not be higher.
So much of what the Magic are going to try to get out of this resumed season is Playoff and pressure experience. The team wants to see how the group performs when everything is at stake.
That will be double for this game. Under almost any likely scenario, this game will have a lot on the line. The Magic have had very few must-win games, but the ones they have had were rewarding.
The penultimate game last year against the Boston Celtics that clinched a Playoff berth was probably the best win of last season. The Magic may have the opportunity to do it again against a team that the Magic should still feel confident they can beat.
August 13 — vs. New Orleans Pelicans (TBD)
The Orlando Magic will close the season with a game that feels like a double-edged sword.
On one hand, the New Orleans Pelicans are the kind of team the Orlando Magic do well with. A team that is equal to them. These are the kind of games the Magic have won easily.
On the other, they have never faced the Pelicans with Zion Williamson. And that is a very different team.
The Pelicans are 11-9 since Williamson made his debut on Jan. 22 with a 113.2 offensive rating (11th in the league) and 109.2 defensive rating (eighth in the league). The Pelicans have been a juggernaut, quickly injecting themselves into the Playoff race.
Williamson has made an impact because he demands so much attention defensively. But it is his defensive presence and how that team has come together on that end that has led to their spark. They are very similar to the Magic in that way — although their offensive weapons with Jrue Holiday, Brandon Ingram and J.J. Redick are much different.
New Orleans Pelicans
The motivations in this game are going to matter. This game will undoubtedly matter for the Magic. At worse, they will need the game to avoid the play-in series with the Washington Wizards. At best, they will need it to try to catch or fend off the Brooklyn Nets.
The New Orleans Pelicans are currently 3.5 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the final Playoff spot. It would take a near disaster not to be eligible for the play-in series in the Western Conference. But they also have to fend off the Portland Trail Blazers and the other teams trying to get to that spot.
If the season had continued as planned, the Pelicans likely would have made a serious run at the Playoffs with one of the easier schedules remaining. New Orleans’ schedule sets up well with two games against the Kings and games against the Orlando Magic, Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs and Washington Wizards.
New Orleans might have the easiest schedule of any team in the bubble — cue the conspiracy theory.
So this game will be important to both teams.
There is not much we can draw from the teams’ first matchup — a 130-119 romp in December in Nikola Vucevic’s first game back from his sprained ankle. Williamson did not play in that game and the Magic suddenly caught fire from deep.
The Pelicans rely heavily on a fast-paced, fast-breaking offense to win. They can put up a lot of points in a hurry. Whether they are able to hit shots will be key to their success. By this point they should be able to.
This is likely a game the Magic have to get, but it will undoubtedly be tough.
Recaps and Pre-Conclusions
Without a doubt, the Orlando Magic got a raw deal here. They were supposed to play the easiest part of their schedule when the season went on hiatus. They obviously lose the benefit of that.
Still, they got a comparatively favorable draw. They will face all the non-playoff teams still in the bubble remaining on their normal schedule. The only thing they might lose is that second game against the Indiana Pacers instead of playing the Toronto Raptors or Boston Celtics.
The schedule is what it is.
That way it is constructed though will require the Magic to be on their game early.
Undoubtedly, the opening game against the Brooklyn Nets will be critical. This game will determine who is in the driver’s seat for the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference and will be important for gaining momentum.
The Magic open up with two “easy” games — or rather, easier games as nothing will be easy with the best teams all gathered in one place. And it is vital the Magic pick up wins at this early stage to gain confidence.
Orlando Magic
The reality is there are so many unequivocal toss-up games. The Magic should feel like they can defeat the Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings, New Orleans Pelicans and even the Indiana Pacers. That is five potential wins right there. But those games could easily go the other way.
So the difference between going 5-3, which would be an incredible success, and going 3-5 or even 2-6 is razor-thin.
In my predictions for now — and they are very subject to change once the team gets on the ground — I have Orlando going 3-5 with wins over the Kings, 76ers and Nets. That would mean to avoid the play-in series, the Wizards would have to go 5-3.
That feels like it would be enough then for the Magic to avoid the play-in series. That should not be enough though. The goal for Orlando should be to go 4-4 or better.
That would mean the Magic likely beat one of those Playoff-caliber teams. And they especially need to be competitive and see how they measure up against the Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors.
If the Magic have any goals for these eight seeding games it should be to finish in seventh and measure up against the Celtics and Raptors in anticipation for that Playoff series.
Orlando wants to prove it has a say in being in the middle of the Eastern Conference’s pack today and for the future. These seeding games will give the team a chance to reclaim some of the potential they lost out on this year.
That is already a ton to play for.
But with so much uncertainty about what the games and these teams will look like, it is hard to say for sure what anything will look like.