What If? Series: 2009 Orlando Magic vs. Denver Nuggets

Carmelo Anthony claims the 2009 Denver Nuggets would sweep the Orlando Magic if they met in the NBA Finals. We put his claim to the test.

Carmelo Anthony was on Dwyane Wade‘s Instagram live broadcast last week when the conversation turned toward Anthony’s best chance to win a championship in 2009.

The Denver Nuggets lost in six games to the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers that year. But like the Orlando Magic — and probably LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers — he believed they had a good chance to win. And when discussing that year, Anthony puffed his chest a little bit.

He said they really wanted Orlando in the Finals. If they could beat the Lakers, he felt confident they would not only but sweep the Magic. Wade merely said Orlando was “all right,” giving the 2009 Magic a second 9.

Nuggets coach George Karl actually agreed with his former star.

This is some serious shade getting thrown at a Magic team that beat the top-seeded Cavaliers in a dominant six games (in fairness, Stan Van Gundy told Kevin Clark of The Ringer that if LeBron James had not hit his game-winning shot in Game 2, the Magic would have swept that series, so everyone gets to play that what-if game with their pride). The Magic lost that Finals series to the Lakers in five games, but two games went to overtime.

And the Nuggets? They lost a close Game 1 in Los Angeles and got a second game to even the series, but their playoff series with the Lakers was not particularly close. Los Angels routed the final two games to advance to the Finals.

There seems to be some revisionist history about the 2009 Magic.

They were a plucky underdog for sure. As the 3-seed, they won two series without homecourt advantage. And everyone probably would concede that if the Boston Celtics had Kevin Garnett, they were not getting out of that round.

But this was one of the most impactful and important teams in NBA history.

Their style proved that 3-point shooting could win in the NBA. One of the reasons the Lakers were able to beat them was their decision to move Lamar Odom to power forward as Dwight Howard kept fouling Andrew Bynum out of games early.

To say any team in the league would sweep the Magic in a series is not giving them their due respect.

But, let’s bite at the proposal. Would the Nuggets beat the Magic had they met in the 2009 NBA Finals? That is a question worth exploring.

What Really Happened

The NBA had a vision for the 2009 NBA Finals. Or at least Nike did.

It was meant to be the ratings bonanza matchup they had dreamed about.

Kobe Bryant, the heir to Michael Jordan, vs. LeBron James, the heir to Magic Johnson, at the very least. Either way, this is the kind of individual battle between two marketing superstars that the league dreamed to showcase on this stage.

Would Kobe Bryant win his first title without Shaquille O’Neal or would the newly minted MVP in LeBron James take the throne and ascend to his first of many championships?

Nike made the infamous puppet commercials and destiny seemed to be on its way.

Quickly, it became clear the Orlando Magic were not going to play their part.

They won Game 1, coming from behind to steal home-court advantage. And they took a 3-1 series lead.

James had one of the best series of his career and in NBA history — 38.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists per game in the six-game series. But it was not enough. The Magic had too much offense and did too much to shut everyone else out, winning close games in Game 1 and Game 3.

The marketers’ dream is over.

To be fair, it was not just the Magic who nearly ruined the dream. The Denver Nuggets did their best too.

The Nuggets finished the season 54-28 and No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Carmelo Anthony returned from the 2008 Olympics inspired and had perhaps his best overall season of his career, averaging 22.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, even though he did not make the All-Star team and saw his scoring drop.

Orlando Magic

It was really the only year Anthony was willing to share the spotlight to make his team better in his career.

Anthony was the prototypical scorer. He was not efficient. But still, no one could stop him. In the six-game series against the Lakers, he averaged 27.5 points per game. It was perhaps his inefficiency, shooting 40.7 percent, that ultimately doomed him and the Nuggets.

With Anthony as its scorer and a nice cadre of bigs in Nene, Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen to protect the paint, along with a young shooter in J.R. Smith, the Nuggets were a challenging team to face. They were a bruising team to face with a dominant scorer and two low-post options.

The real change for the Nuggets came when they traded Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups in January. Now the Nuggets had put the ball fully in Anthony’s hands as the scorer. And they had a game manager and experienced championship point guard to manage the game and get the team to a higher level.

Denver finished the year seventh in offensive rating (109.0 offensive rating) and eighth in defensive rating (105.6 defensive rating) while also playing at one of the fastest paces in the league.

Anthony could break you down in the half-court or they could go bruise with their big men. Or they could run on you when they got turnovers and stops, especially with the big-man duo who could run the floor in Martin and Andersen.

They had a lot going for them and were a strong team for that late 2000s era when isolation ball and the big men were still kings. With their size, they could match up with the Lakers fairly well and undoubtedly would have given the Magic issues in a seven-game series.

But a sweep is still extremely far-fetched.

The Matchup — New vs. Old

The 2009 Finals was indeed a matchup of the past against the future, even if everyone did not know it at the time.

Kobe Bryant was still the king of the isolation and the Los Angeles Lakers trotted out a lineup that featured two seven-footers, believing size would reign over everyone. But the Orlando Magic quickly made the Los Angeles Lakers rethink that premise.

Dwight Howard bullied Andrew Bynum on the block and often got him quickly out of games. The Lakers found their best lineup actually mirrored the Magic’s small lineups with Lamar Odom sliding over to the 4 and Trevor Ariza at the 3.

Los Angeles figured out the only way to slow down Orlando’s offensive juggernaut was to match its size and versatility.

This was partly the case in the Western Conference Finals too and a reason the Lakers came out on top.

Bryant got his — 34.5 points per game — but it was Odom and Ariza stepping up their production that got Los Angeles over the top.

Odom averaged 11.5 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, shooting 55.6 percent from three in 31.0 minutes per game. Ariza averaged 12.3 points and shot 50.0 percent from deep in 28.9 minutes per game.

Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol still had the bulk of the scoring in the series. But it was the support of Ariza and Odom — and the diminishing of Bynum to 19.9 minutes per game — that delivered the Lakers to the Finals.

Denver Nuggets

In Games 5 and 6, after Denver tied the series at 2-2, it was Odom and Ariza who proved the difference.

In a 103-94 Game 5 victory, Odom came off the bench to score 19 points and grab 14 rebounds. In the 119-92 series-clinching Game 6, Ariza had 17 points, including 3-for-4 shooting from deep, and Odom 20 points and eight rebounds.

That exact versatility that forced the Nuggets to go small is eventually what doomed them. Denver did not have enough shooting to keep the floor spaced and vary their offensive attack. They became dinosaurs overnight.

It is hard not to think the same would have happened in a series against the Magic.

Hedo Turkoglu had taken over as the finisher and essentially second-half point guard for the Magic. He caused a nightmare matchup as no one in the league really had a player who could defend a 6-foot-10 point guard like him. Especially with Dwight Howard setting screens for him.

Similarly, Rashard Lewis as a shooter would spread the floor. And he was particularly feeling it in that Eastern Conference Finals (48.4 percent from deep in that series). That hot streak ran out going up against better perimeter defenders in Odom and Ariza in the Finals, where he shot 40.0-percent from deep in the Finals, but almost exclusively taking threes.

Lewis made a living in 2009 and 2010 beating up on traditional power forwards who wanted no business going out on the perimeter.

Would the Nuggets have been willing to move Anthony to power forward and play small? It almost seems doing that would be admitting the Magic had the upper hand.

A series between the Magic and Nuggets would come down to whether Rashard Lewis could get George Karl to blink on that front. Lewis always held his own against those bulky power forwards. Denver would lose a lot if it could not play Kenyon Martin and Nene together.

The Matchup — Star Battle

The Denver Nuggets’ chief strategy would be to stonewall Dwight Howard in the post and keep throwing size at him. That was a strategy the Atlanta Hawks would use effectively in 2011. Of course, the Magic were a significantly weaker team.

Nene was one of the few centers who could dislodge Howard however. In the two games the teams played against each other Howard scored a total of 30 points and grabbed 34 rebounds. He committed nine total turnovers in the two games.

So the gameplan for the Magic would be to use Howard as a decoy and rely on the perimeter players to bail the team out with Denver sinking so deep into the paint.

It worked in the first meeting in Denver when Orlando won 106-88. Turkoglu scored 31 points in that game. But it was also during that West Coast road trip when the Magic were at the height of their power and Jameer Nelson was making his All-Star legacy. Anthony also did not play in this game.

It did not work in the second meeting in Orlando when Denver won 82-73. Orlando shot 30.4 percent in that game but it was also during the time period between Jameer Nelson’s injury and the Rafer Alston trade.

The Magic had already proven they could win despite heroic efforts from fantastic players. Anthony would get his points — he did not play in the first meeting and scored 29 points in the second meeting.

So the question would be how they would handle Chauncey Billups. That is the one player the Magic have never had an answer for. He is probably near the top of all-time Magic killers.

Billups tortured Nelson throughout his career. Of course, Nelson was not fully available for the Finals. The team was running Rafer Alston as the starting point guard at that point. He is not exactly a sizable point guard.

The Magic could come up with an answer for every player on the Nuggets’ roster, but Billups is someone they would have no answer for. Alston was a stop gap, but he was not someone to solve this problem. Certainly not a big, poised point guard like Billups.

While Orlando had a ton of matchup advantages, Billups gives the Nuggets a huge leg up too. And he undoubtedly would have made sure this remained a tight series.

Simulated Series

Why project what these matchups might look like when we can actually simulate it using WhatIfSports.com’s simulation engine.

Using the minute distribution from the conference finals series for the Denver Nuggets and the Finals minutes distribution for the Orlando Magic, I have constructed realistic-looking rotations to use in the simulation. And we can at least get a picture of how the series might have gone.

Game 1 — Magic 123, Nuggets 101 (ORL leads 1-0)

The Orlando Magic started off the Finals at the Amway Arena with a bang, outscoring the Denver Nuggets 35-26 in the first quarter and then closing with a 37-22 flourish in the fourth quarter.

Orlando’s 3-point shooting and versatility proved to be the difference. The Magic hit 11 of 25 3-pointers.

But it really was the Nuggets’ inability to downsize that won them this game. Rashard Lewis scored 26 points to go with 12 rebounds and eight assists. That meant him running circles around Kenyon Martin, dragged way too far out to the perimeter for his liking. And Linas Kleiza just is not going to cut it.

Orlando won the first salvo with a diverse offensive attack Denver could not keep up with. If the Nuggets win this series, they will not get the sweep.

Game 2 — Nuggets 117, Magic 109 (Series Tied 1-1)

The thing about physical teams is they can find their way to the foul line and that can be the great equalizer. It was in this game for sure. Denver went 29 for 39 from the foul line to help break the Magic’s 3-point advantage and pull away for the win to even the series before heading to Denver for the next three games.

The Magic led 84-79 after three quarters, but Chauncey Billups took over in the middle of the fourth quarter. He scored nine points and dished out two assists in a 14-6 run to take control of the game. Billups gave the Nuggets the lead for good to start that run at 99-98 with five minutes to play.

If the first two games of the series proved anything, it was that this series will go as far as these two matchup advantages go — Rashard Lewis and Chauncey Billups. Lewis was the difference in Game 1 and Billups was the difference in Game 2.

Carmelo Anthony was getting his points (32 points, 12 rebounds). Dwight Howard scored 21 points to go with 20 rebounds. But his five turnovers hurt as the Magic did not get their sharpest game from their best player.

Game 3 — Magic 126, Nuggets 91 (ORL leads 2-1)

Dwight Howard finally put his imprint on this series. And the Orlando Magic took homecourt advantage back and control of the series in the first Finals game at the Pepsi Center. He scored 33 points to go with 18 rebounds and five blocks to lead the Magic. This was finally his game and series.

Again, the Magic’s shooting proved to be too much. Orlando made 13 of 26 3-pointers, including four from Rashard Lewis. The Magic broke the Chauncey Billups hex, holding him to four points on 2-for-12 shooting.

The Magic built their lead in the second quarter, outscoring the Nuggets 40-23. Even Jameer Nelson got in on the fun with nine points and four assists in a respectable (and probably more normal) 14 minutes.

Do not worry, Rafer Alston recorded a double-double with 11 points and 10 assists. And the Magic got the balanced contributions they needed to rout even the best teams in the league.

Game 4 — Nuggets 108, Magic 87 (Series tied 2-2)

One good blowout deserves another. The Magic made just 41.0-percent of their shots and 8 for 24 from beyond the arc. They have these games where the shots do not fall. That was part of the team’s strategy in a league that had not fully embraced the 3-point line yet.

The problem with that then is it becomes easier for the Nuggets to attack and swarm Howard on the inside. Like in the Game 2 loss, the Nuggets were able to force Howard into a lot of mistakes. He had four turnovers in the game, hiding his 21-point, 18-rebound, five-block effort.

With Carmelo Anthony scoring just 19 points, Nene stepped up with 17 points and that defense on Howard. The Nuggets were able to play their sometimes grimy game because of that.

Orlando needed to hit shots to stay in this one. A 10-point third quarter ultimately did the Magic in. Hedo Turkoglu had one of his poor shooting games (he did have those) and the Magic just did not have it in this one.

Game 5 — Nuggets 112, Magic 110 (DEN leads 3-2)

It would not be a NBA Finals series with the Magic without a collapse. And this one will go down as the collapse of the series, and possibly its turning point. The Magic led by 14 at the half and nine at the end of the third quarter, only to see the Nuggets storm back for the win.

Denver tied the game with 2.5 minutes to play and took the lead for good on a Carmelo Anthony three with 2:09 to play. This was Anthony’s MVP moment. He scored nine of his 22 points in the final 2:09 to seize the game.

Orlando again could not find the range, making just 8 of 23 3-pointers (the same as Denver). That is so often the difference in these games for the Magic.

Dwight Howard had 31 points and 16 rebounds to go with four blocks. He was as dominant as ever. But the Magic went cold at the wrong moment. Turnovers cost the team (17 of them) including four each from Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu.

Game 6 — Nuggets 114, Magic 92 (DEN wins 4-2)

The magic simply ran out it seems in the final games of this series. Dwight Howard put in his numbers with 25 points, 23 rebounds and five blocks. His four turnovers hurt the team again as the Magic’s lack of help finally came to brunt. Orlando made just 10 of 37 3-pointers.

Without that weapon, the Magic simply did not have enough. There was no scoring help for Howard and that became clear throughout the series.

J.R. Smith had his breakout game with 20 points and 4-for-9 shooting. Anthony scored 23 points and dished out 10 assists to cement his MVP series.

In the end, Orlando just could not keep up when the shots stopped falling. Like the real series against the Lakers, this simulated series revealed its flaws of lacking a true perimeter creator.

Conclusion

I will fully admit, entering this experiment, I wanted to completely dismiss the Denver Nuggets. I did not remember much about that team and it did not imprint on me much. It is easy to fall into the stereotype of Carmelo Anthony hogging the ball and being the iso scorer he was and thinking that was this team.

This Nuggets team was very much of the older generation. It used two bigs and tried to be physical, using one dominant scorer to create space for everyone. It was clearly still a formula that would work.

But like the real Finals series against the Los Angeles Lakers, this simulated series revealed the Orlando Magic’s flaws. They could have won the series against Lakers, just like they could have very well won the series against the Nuggets.

But Orlando was no runaway favorite. They had a ton of flaws. And everything had to fall into place with execution and shot-making to win.

They had great spacing and shooters, but they lacked the last bit to get over the top. They needed a perimeter creator and scorer to close games. Hedo Turkoglu had his big moments but he could get stymied. Rashard Lewis could go hot and cold.

Nowhere is the flaw more apparent than with Dwight Howard himself. He could put up monster numbers, but would he carry the team to a win and to a title? That was always the question.

Carmelo Anthony was someone who could take over a game. In the playoffs, being able to beat a set defense is the biggest thing. That was the biggest element the Magic were missing and the biggest flaw in the 2009 team. And that proved to be the difference against the Lakers and could have been a big difference if these teams played each other in 2009.

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And that is probably why the Magic took the chance to go after a player like Vince Carter, someone they believed could give the team the missing finishing element from the perimeter and take more pressure off Dwight Howard.

That obviously did not work. It seems the 2009 Magic captured lightning in a bottle. They were good enough to win a title. But everything needed to work perfectly. It did go right, helping get them to the 2009 Finals.

But they were not really ready for that stage. And the league was not quite ready for the barrage they unleashed and the revolution the Magic started. There were still defenses to the league’s incoming 3-point revolution.

I think the Magic and Nuggets would have played an entertaining and close series. If we ran that simulation again, the Magic would probably win their fair share of them — incidentally, I ran the simulation a second time and the Magic swept the series to win the title.

The Nuggets absolutely have the right to be confident in that series. So too did the Magic.

Maybe the marketers would have had nightmares (they still would have had Anthony to sell!). But it would have been a competitive and interesting series on a number of levels.

If I had to make a pick, I would say the Magic win in 7. I think homecourt advantage and their shooting and matchup advantages would give them the series more often than not. But it would be a close and tight battel throughout.

Both the 2009 Magic and 2009 Nuggets have reason to feel history has slighted them and forgotten them. Both fan bases have a right to believe these teams, quite possibly the best teams in each franchise’s history, are overlooked and forgotten.

Or maybe the ultimate conclusion is the right team won in real life. The Lakers were the better team than both the Magic and Nuggets that year.