The Orlando Magic have tripled down on the present without adding a point guard. Trading for Russell Westbrook would improve them and fill plenty of needs. But at what cost?
Kawhi Leonard‘s free agency decision was supposed to put a cap on one of the wildest summers in NBA history. Teams added new players and there was plenty of player movement. Some, like the Orlando Magic, retained theirs. But the Leonard move was the power move waiting to happen.
When it happened, the rest of the league seemed to shake because of it.
The LA Clippers shifted the NBA landscape, finding a way to not just to sign Kawhi Leonard, but also to acquire Paul George from the Oklahoma City Thunder for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari and a bevy of future first-round picks.
This trade has little to nothing to do with the Magic at first glance. But the deal almost certainly changes how the Thunder plan for their future.
Immediately everyone expected their point guard with a mega four-year contract to hit the trade market. That immediately vaults the Magic as a potential destination for Russell Westbrook, who is talking to the Thunder’s front office about what steps to take next, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
The Magic’s offseason saw them re-sign both Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross to four-year deals. They also brought back Michael Carter-Williams and used the mid-level exception on Al-Farouq Aminu.
This plan showed they are interested in the present and who got them there, showed they trust the continued development of their young players and showed they value making the postseason no matter the seed.
But the team needs more to get to that point.
Orlando still has not fully addressed the point guard position.
Westbrook, averaging a triple-double for three seasons running, would vastly improve the Magic next season if the team acquired him. And with his contract on the books for four years like Nikola Vucevic and Terrence Ross, adding Russell Westbrook works within the construct of their win-now mindset.
There is at least a framework to find a deal if the Magic wanted to make this kind of a splash.
The hypothetical trade would see Russell Westbrook head to Orlando for Markelle Fultz, Mohamed Bamba, Evan Fournier and a protected 2021 first-round pick that becomes top-three protected in 2022.
Who knows if either team would actually pursue this deal or any deal with one another, but this works in ESPN’s trade machine and added three wins to the Magic 2020 projection.
Throwing in two first-round picks may be needed for Orlando to get it over the hump, but the tail-end of Westbrook’s contract and knee injury history lowers his value.
It is difficult to gauge what Oklahoma City would actually net.
Orlando gets a point guard fix, improves its immediate postseason hopes and maintains the team’s two young pillars while Oklahoma City gets Westbrook’s massive number off its books in an expected full team exodus, a first-round pick down the road, the Markelle Fultz reclamation project and Mohamed Bamba as the replacement for Steven Adams.
That is one of many different scenarios. The point is the Magic have avenues to get involved in this kind of a deal if they choose.
There are many angles to dive into with this hypothetical trade, but here are three thoughts about it on the Orlando Magic side of things.
3. Point guard situation fixed for now, but no plan for future in place
Russell Westbrook will be better than any point guard the Orlando Magic could draft likely for the remainder of his contract, so the move is aligned with their win in the present contract situations.
But the long-term plan with the Magic is to have Markelle Fultz hopefully fix his shoulder issue and be the lead guard for the future.
In this scenario, Fultz is gone, and a first-round pick to replace Westbrook down the line also parts with Orlando. This move would put everything into the current team — with many of the key players locked in for four years — and leave no room for future development.
Fultz may not be the prospect that was expected in a No. 1 pick, but he is still a player that has a massive ceiling and is only 21 years old.
The NBA is about striking the balance of staying relevant while maintaining a bright future, and the Magic would have some semblance of that in this deal, but once again would have no future guard of the future.
Fultz may not be the answer and this would be a blessing in disguise to get him off the roster, opening the door for Orlando to sign another free agent when their cap space opens up in 2023 to pair with their young frontcourt. But Fultz is the answer for the time being, and is the plan, albeit risky, moving forward.
2. Orlando has a typical Westbrook roster, with a Nikola Vucevic upgrade to benefit the former MVP
Russell Westbrook’s fit with the Orlando Magic is actually very intriguing.
He is used to playing with defensive-minded, role playing wings with the Oklahoma City Thunder (outside of Kevin Durant and Paul George, obviously), so transitioning to sharing the court with Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac will not be an issue for Westbrook.
With Russell Westbrook’s massively high-usage in the mix, D.J. Augustin would switch to an off-ball role, which isn’t the worst thing at all for either. D.J. Augustin is a great shooter from deep, and has shot 42.0 percent on 3.7 3-pointers per game his last two seasons in Orlando. He knocked down 44.5 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season.
Westbrook played last season with an undersized guard last season with Dennis Schroder, but the latter is not the shooter Augustin is, which opens the floor for Westbrook. Gordon was a decent off the catch-and-shoot as well, knocking down 36.5 percent of his 3.1 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts last season.
When Westbrook is on the bench or wants to spend time off-ball, Augustin is capable of running some pick-and-roll of his own and keeping the Magic offense.
The real upgrade for Westbrook would be the upgrade offensively from Steven Adams to Nikola Vucevic. Adams is a behemoth on the boards and efficient in the paint, but Vucevic is the type of big and pick-and-roll partner that would open the floor for Westbrook so much.
Orlando Magic
Adams is not a good shooter and is no threat away from the basket with 92.2 percent of his shots coming from inside of 10 feet. On the contrary, 34.1 percent of Vucevic’s shot attempts are catch-and-shoot opportunities. He offers a pick-and-pop element that Westbrook does not have with Adams.
Westbrook’s transition-heavy game would boost Orlando’s 10.8 fastbreak points per game last season (25th in NBA). To put this in some context, Westbrook averaged 6.0 transition points per game by himself.
The Magic would be a better team, and Westbrook playing at his ultra-speed with Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac attacking the rim as Terrence Ross jolts to the 3-point line is awesome. Pair that with Vucevic’s dominance in the halfcourt.
Orlando is a very good defensive team that should create transition opportunities that benefits somebody like Westbrook who aggressively pushes for those chances.
Closing lineups could fluctuate, and a top-seven of D.J. Augustin, Russell Westbrook, Jonathan Isaac, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross and Al-Farouq Aminu has plenty of size and athleticism to play any style.
It would certainly make the Magic better now and in the near future.
They would be a fun, young team that offers a roster that will not be as talented as ones Westbrook has played with. But one that fits really well with his game, which was not always the case with the talented Thunder teams.
1. Is luxury tax, losing Bamba, Fultz, pick(s), worth potential ceiling of this team with Westbrook?
The Orlando Magic currently sit beneath the luxury tax line. But this trade would put them into the tax penalty. Under luxury tax rules, they would be forced to pay $1.75 for every dollar they are over the tax. And that could be a pretty hefty price tag.
Russell Westbrook’s contract increases in dollars as Nikola Vucevic’s decreases. And who knows how the roster would shape up after this season. It is tough to predict future luxury tax scenarios.
But even when just focusing on this season, is the extra $13.5 million worth this team’s ceiling?
One could argue Westbrook’s presence alone would generate a large portion of that money back in jersey and ticket sales. And the chance to compete and win would make the cost worth it as the Eastern Conference continues to change.
Westbrook is a global superstar with his own Jordan signature shoe and would be in a non-income tax state a short plane ride and drive away from Miami to pursue his off-court interests, as well as Orlando being a unique marketing city themselves, could attract Westbrook more than one would think.
But everything comes down to on-court production.
Is losing Mohamed Bamba, Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier and multiple first-round picks worth a seed in the 3-6 range, the luxury tax and Westbrook’s contract?
Parting with Bamba would see another lottery pick not pan out. But at least his position is not an area of need. Orlando has young, frontcourt depth and using him to get Westbrook balances, by far the better player, is a nice use of an asset.
But Westbrook makes a team like the Magic immediately relevant and competitive for something more than just a playoff spot.
Next season alone, the addition of Westbrook places them a strong bet for home-court advantage. The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers are heavy favorites in the Eastern Conference. But after that, there are questions for everyone.
How good will the Boston Celtics look with Kemba Walker replacing Kyrie Irving and Al Horford and their hopes hanging on the development of their young roster? Can the Indiana Pacers new backcourt tandem of Victor Oladipo and Malcolm Brogdon stay healthy? How does the Kyrie solo show with the Brooklyn Nets go?
Westbrook with Orlando has questions to answer itself, but this team won 42 games last season. Combine Gordon and Isaac developing with the addition of Westbrook and this team will improve mightily.
Westbrook has struggled in the postseason recently, failing to get out of the first round since Kevin Durant went to the Golden State Warriors. But that was the Western Conference against the Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers.
Finding success with the Magic would probably be easier. Only the Bucks and 76ers are locks to beat the Magic in a postseason. It is hard not to think they would matchup pretty well with any other Eastern Conference team.
Would all of that be worth the luxury tax?
Who knows at this point. But the interest in the Magic would be very high, and the move definitely makes them a better product on the court.
Summary
Trading for Russell Westbrook is not something the Orlando Magic thought would potentially be on the table this offseason. And it still may not be.
Who knows if Westbrook wants to come to Orlando, or if that package is good enough, or even if he will get moved at all?
But there is an increasing chance he will be moved sooner rather than later, and the chance to trade for a player of Westbrook’s stature does not come often.
It is not likely it will happen, but if the price is right — mainly keeping Gordon and Isaac and not surrendering a lot of draft capital — why not make the trade?
Westbrook is who he is. He is going to want the ball and have a lot of it. He is going to have his 9-for-30 shooting games. But he is one of the most productive players in the NBA during the last decade. There is enough experience on this roster to tailor toward Westbrook’s window, not to say they would be title contenders at all.
He will take touches from Gordon and Isaac, but also open up small-ball lineups where the game is simple for them because Bamba would be gone. The threat of his drives would also give Gordon and Isaac better quality shots to take.
A good way to build up a young player’s confidence is to have them attack mismatches. With only Nikola Vucevic and, potentially, Khem Birch on the roster as bigs, there would be opportunities for Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac to play the 4 and 5 more. This will give them quickness advantages more often than not.
It would also see the Magic make their own power play in a wide-open NBA. Westbrook and Orlando will struggle to get out of the first round in their current situations, but together they could get over the first-round hump.
It is the perfect time to do it.
Entertaining every offer is smart business, and Orlando should at least inquire about trading for Westbrook if he becomes available.
If their demands are too high, the team would walk away and go back to their current plan. If not, you see what kind of deal can be struck for Westbrook and become an interesting, entertaining and improved team in 2020.