The big day is finally here. The NBA Draft is taking place tonight. It is time to break down what might happen and where the Orlando Magic will go.
Last year, it felt like the NBA was ready for a bit of a seismic shift from the draft. It was an extremely deep draft pool with a lot of players at the top many thought could be stars.
No matter who the Orlando Magic picked at No. 6, it seemed like there would be room for disagreements and arguments.
Indeed, considering Mohamed Bamba was already a raw talent that needed some definition to his game and then got cut short with an injury. The Magic are still high on him, but it was still painful to see the Magic have no representation in the Rising Stars Game at All-Star Weekend this year.
At the top of the draft, the debate is still raging between Luka Doncic (third overall) and Trae Young (fifth overall) for Rookie of the Year, after the two were traded for each other on draft night. And that does not include solid rookie years from Deandre Ayton (first overall), Marvin Bagley III (second overall), Jaren Jackson Jr. (fourth overall) and Shai Gilgeous Alexander (11th overall).
The 2018 Draft will go down as a really good one.
The 2019 Draft is a different one. Both for the talent at the top of the draft and for where the Magic are picking.
There are not a lot of potential stars in this draft. It is largely considered a three-man draft with Zion Williamson the clear prize at the very top. It has several solid players throughout the middle of the draft. But the time that part of the draft starts this year should be earlier. And those kinds of players always carry some form of risk.
And the Magic will not be picking among the first picks. Their appearance in the playoffs means they will pick outside of the Lottery for the first time in the last seven years. That will limit some of their choices for sure — the pyramid gets wider as president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman puts it.
But they should still be able to find a player who can contribute. Maybe even one who can contribute to the team quickly, although the Magic reiterate that is never the expectation for a rookie adjusting to the NBA.
Orlando has an important decision to make. Which direction the team goes, largely depends on how the draft shakes out.
The top of the draft
There is no one else this could be. The New Orleans Pelicans get to pick the player who is far and away the best player in this draft. Even his doubters cannot deny the gravity he has about him as he shattered every expectation — outsized as they were — set for him with the Duke Blue Devils.
Williamson is an explosive leaper and vicious dunker. But his game is much more than that. He proved himself to be a solid defender and even an improving outside shooter. There is still a lot of work to his game, but his magnetism on and off the floor are undeniable. A perfect top overall pick.
The Memphis Grizzlies have already telegraphed where they will go with this pick, moving on from long-time veteran Mike Conley in a trade with the Utah Jazz. Ja Morant burst onto the scene this year as one of the most dynamic scorers in the nation. He doubled down on his success, showing up in the NCAA Tournament as one of the few players to record a triple-double in that tournament.
Morant is a bit more than his scoring. He is a solid playmaker and should translate to the league. Especially now that the Grizzlies have entrusted him fully with the offense.
There was at least a small time when some thought R.J. Barrett might be the better NBA prospect than Zion Williamson. That is probably incorrect, but there is an undeniable contour to Barrett’s game that would fit the NBA better.
He is a smooth scorer who can attack the basket in a variety of ways and can hit mid-range jumpers consistently. There is a reason he ended up as Duke’s primary perimeter creator and scorer. He just has to improve his 3-point range to become a real great weapon moving forward.
The Los Angeles Lakers have, of course, traded this pick to the New Orleans Pelicans as part of the Anthony Davis trade. That has not become official yet. But they should select Jarett Culver to pair with their now interesting young core featuring Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram and, of course, Zion Williamson.
Culver was one of the top defenders in the nation last year. He greatly improved his offense to take a sizable leap in his game. He has to improve his 3-point shot, but he can work between gaps and score within the flow of the offense effectively. With other scorers on the roster now, Culver gives the Pelicans some size on the wing they have sorely missed.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are still rebuilding their foundation after LeBron James left. They were a poor defensive team throughout the season, but things looked up as Collin Sexton got comfortable late in the season and Kevin Love returned from injury.
Regardless with what the Cavaliers end up doing with Kevin Love, De’Andre Hunter will help give the Cavaliers a solid defensive footing on the perimeter. He was the best perimeter defender in the Virginia Cavaliers’ vaunted defense that led them to the national title last year.
No team seemingly needed a point guard more desperately than the Orlando Magic last summer than the Phoenix Suns. Their failure to acquire one was cited as one reason they changed management groups so suddenly at the beginning of last season. Their clock is already ticking with Devin Booker and they have impatient ownership to begin with.
Darius Garland will take some patience, but his talent is undeniable as a 6-foot-6 point guard in this draft. He missed almost his entire freshman year with the Vanderbilt Commodores with a foot injury. But when healthy, he is an explosive finisher at the rim and someone who can play both guard spots.
The Chicago Bulls also need a point guard and find it here with North Carolina Tar Heels guard Coby White. Chicago is still in asset collection mode, looking for the best player available to fit around the core group featuring Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen and Otto Porter.
White was one of the surprises for North Carolina last year, averaging 16.1 points and 4.1 assists per game, while shooting 35.3 percent from beyond the arc. His size and quickness of the dribble could make him a dynamo scorer. But the rest of his point guard skills still have to round into form.
The Tier Above
There are not many international prospects available in this draft. No one really stands out. Except for Sekou Doumbouya. He has a ton of length and an improving jump shot that he has showcased on the international stage. Doumbouya is intriguing from a physicality standpoint as he puts all the elements of his game together.
The Atlanta Hawks like to find shooting. That has kind of been their thing throughout the early stages of their rebuild. Adding in a long-armed defender would help boost their league-worst defense. And Doumbouya can continue to grow with their core as he gets better.
The Texas Longhorns did pretty good job finding a suitable replacement for Mohamed Bamba pretty quickly. Jaxson Hayes put in as big of an impact as his predecessor in a lot of ways. He is a solid shot blocker and defender with a growing offensive game.
Hayes lacks the same kind of physical presence that Bamba had. His wingspan is not otherworldly. But he is a solid big man who can develop into a decent big. A safe pick for a team that needs contributing players to stay afloat.
With so many picks in this draft, the Atlanta Hawks are in the position to take a big swing and go for a super talented player in this draft. That player is Bol Bol. If he can reach his potential, he could be a game-changing center as someone who can handle the ball some on the perimeter and shoot from the outside.
But there are a lot of questions. He has a foot injury he is recovering from and he is not the most athletically sound. It is hard to envision him defending players on the perimeter despite his mobility on offense. This is a risk the Hawks can take.
No player it seemed tumbled more during the course of the college season than Cameron Reddish. A player many considered a knockdown shooter struggled with consistency throughout the season. He could not find his rhythm and that actually hurt the Duke Blue Devils throughout the season.
He finished the year making 35.6 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from beyond the arc. It was just a bad year for Reddish. He has enough talent and showed enough potential to make anyone believe in him still. But without his shooting, it is hard to envision Reddish amounting to much.
The serious candidates
Keldon Johnson was sort of a do-everything guard for the Kentucky Wildcats. He was able to attack on straight line-drives to the basket, hit the three and defend multiple positions. He is the typical Jack-of-all-trades player that become difficult to evaluate in the draft.
Johnson averaged 13.5 points per game and 5.9 rebounds per game. He is a big, strong guard who can defend multiple positions. He shot 38.1 percent from beyond the arc, suggesting his 3-point shooting can come around. But his value is in his versatility as a defender and his solid play offensively. He is a hard-working player who will do whatever the team asks of him.
The Charlotte Hornets love versatile wing players and they will need to bolster their wing depth regardless of what happens in free agency. Johnson fits into the ethos this team has built up during the last several years as a perfect complimentary player.
Few players in this draft are likely to carry the kind of risk that Romeo Langford comes with. If he had stayed healthy last year, he likely would have been among the top picks in the draft. He is such a strong attacker to the basket and scorer that he was effective even playing with a major wrist injury that affected his shot.
It is still unclear just what that wrist injury did to his shot. He was a very poor shooter for the Indiana Hoosiers last year. His form looked poor with shots flying out at low angles. That is something many believe he can correct and the healing up will fix.
What should attract him to the Miami Heat is his fight. The guy played through a major wrist injury and nearly willed the Hoosiers into the playoffs. If he can get healthy, he would be a huge get for a Heat team that has a strong culture but is still rebuilding.
Rui Hachimura is going to be a workhorse for whoever drafts him. He is a big body who can hold his own on the block and position himself to stop drives and protect the rim. He is not a great shot blocker, but he holds his own. On offense, he has good post moves and footwork. Hachimura has a lot of the package you want in a backup power forward.
His lack of height and size could hurt him at the NBA. As will his poor 3-point shooting. Hachimura will have to become a more comfortable 3-point shooter.
But Hachimura will be able to find a good spot in a rotation. He works hard and he defends well. He can get out on the perimeter some defensively. That versatility will help a team like the Boston Celtics tremendously.
There was a time when Nassir Little was considered an easy top-5 pick in this draft. He slowly slipped down the draft board as he struggled to fit in with the North Carolina Tar Heels. They could not really figure out how to use him best, ultimately settling on him at the 4. Toward the end of the season, Little started to find his footing.
Little is a big player for his size. He has the strength to play defense and attack the basket. He will be able to carry through the season and adjust to the physicality. But his 3-point shot has to come around. He was inconsistent at best from the outside. And that is probably what held him back.
Little may end up being that player who works better as a pro than he does within the college game. That is part of the risk in taking him. He can fill out a role, but his talent suggests he should be a whole lot more.
The Magic’s pick
The way this draft breaks down, the Orlando Magic will have a ton of options. Even if the league has an inexplicable avoidance of big men, the team should expect to be comfortable with whomever they pick.
There are plenty of good options here that lots of people can argue for — from Kentucky Wildcats guard Tyler Herro to North Carolina Tar Heels forward Cameron Johnson to USC Trojans guard Kevin Porter Jr. to even some outside shots like Republic of Georgia big man Goga Bitadze, Kentucky Wildcats forward P.J. Washington, Tennessee Volunteers forward Brandon Williams or Stanford Cardinal forward KZ Okpala.
There is little difference between a lot of the players the Magic could choose from when the draft actually breaks down. And there are a lot of players they should feel comfortable selecting when their pick comes up.
They may not get a star — even if someone like Nassir Little or Romeo Langford falls to them — but they should count on finding someone who can fill a role in the league.
All that will matter, and where their draft process has to be sharp, is in figuring out whether that player will embrace that role, put in the work to improve and listen to their player development staff. This draft is really about figuring out if the infrastructure the Magic have build is successful.
For a long time, I have had my eye on Virginia Tech Hokies guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He fits a lot of the traits the Magic like in a prospect with his length and general improvement. He got better from his freshman and sophomore year. That suggests he is still growing his game and able to make an impact.
Alexander-Walker is a solid 3-point shooter. That obviously fits a need for the Magic. But he is solid defensively too, can handle the ball in the pick and roll effectively as a secondary playmaker. That is the kind of guy that can fit into a role and grow into something more.
Alexander-Walker checks off all the boxes for me as for what the Magic need from this pick. He fits their style and fills a need.
When the Magic pick, I believe he should be their guy. He stands out to me among all the options the Magic have available to them.
Passed over
The Atlanta Hawks cannot possibly keep all their draft picks in this year’s draft and might be looking to move around with these picks. They should still feel pretty good with their options wherever they pick, if they want to take on so many young players.
Virginia Cavaliers guard Ty Jerome is not going to start, but he would be a solid backup to Trae Young. He can shoot the ball effectively, defend well and run a team. That is all anyone would ask for him.
With the chance to take some risks elsewhere in the draft, this is a safe pick that can give the Hawks a young player that will contribute something to the team and grow into a nice role for the team.
Tyler Herro might well be the best shooter in this draft. He has a great form that allows him to hit spot-up 3-pointers with ease and he has a great sense on how to cut and get to the basket. This would be a good pick for any team because his shooting will allow him to compete quickly for minutes.
But he has two big weaknesses. His lack of length will make it hard for him to make an impact defensively. He is willing to work on that end — that is a positive — but it will always be an uphill battle for him. The second is his poor shooting off cuts. He is a spot-up shooter and not someone who can go on the move.
Shooting is at a premium in this league though. Herro can shoot it with the best of them. There is no reason for him to slip too far.
Goga Bitadze has the makeup of a center who can contribute in the NBA. He has growing range out to the 3-point line and the body to bang in the post. He has that makeup for a center.
The question for him is maturity. He was prone to frustration outbursts in his club team for Europe and he has to prove he can handle the grind of a NBA season. Like most European prospects, his minutes were sparse. This is more projection of what he can be. And he did this all in a lower-level league.
Bitadze has a lot of tools teams will like though. It is hard to completely ignore what he was able to put together. In the right situation, he could flourish.
Kevin Porter Jr. might be one of the more talented players in this draft. He has all the offensive skills and tools to attack, drawing comparisons to fellow lefty James Harden. He is a strong offensive player and attacker.
He needs the ball in his hands to be successful. He is not much of a 3-point shooter and attacks best off the dribble. Porter is intriguing for that reason. But that might ultimately be his downfall. If he is not put in a position to have the ball in his hands, he might struggle to carve out a successful role.
The issue is about his maturity. He clashed with his coaches with the USC Trojans before he eventually was suspended for the rest of the season in December. Teams seem to be a bit afraid of that prospect.
Cameron Johnson was a surprising four-year player who established himself as one of the best shooters in the nation. He seemingly quieted the super talented Nassir Little, taking his spot in the rotation. He can contribute quickly for that reason.
Shooting is at a premium. But Johnson adds some size to his package that could make him extremely valuable too. He is a decent defender that will add a lot to whatever team drafts him.
The Oklahoma City Thunder undoubtedly need some shooting. Too many of their guards and wings are poor from the outside. It was a big reason why they floundered in the playoffs. Taking Johnson here would be a steal for them.
The rest of the first round
Matisse Thybulle is a raw prospect who was still finding his way through his talent. He is not going to provide much offensively. But his length and size made him a defensive terror in college. And he should be someone who can translate that to the league.
This is the perfect spot for him to go. And honestly, Thybulle could be a dark-horse candidate for the Orlando Magic to take because of his length and defensive ability.
P.J. Washington is one of the intriguing talents in this draft because he is a tweener in so many ways. He is a solid driver and can run the open floor effectively. His defense is solid. But his lack of 3-point shooting makes it tough to find a place for him.
At this point in the draft, there is too much talent here to pass up. Washington can play at a high level when given a chance.
Brandon Clarke is a player who could go just about anywhere in the draft. He is a solid player around the basket and a great shot blocker. One of the best shot blockers in the nation. He has an understanding of positioning and footwork that is not usual for a player of his age.
But Clarke has a lot working against him. He is just 6-foot-8 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan. He does not possess a ton of length or athleticism. And footwork and positioning can only get you so far.
Nicolas Claxton has slowly risen on draft boards since the NBA Draft Combine when he had a good showing. He has good athleticism and strength on the block (although like all rookies, he needs to put on muscle). He can move well and he will attack from the paint.
There is not a lot of refinement to his game yet. He is all energy and buoyancy. And Claxton is not going to to do a whole lot outside the paint.
If anyone knows how to fill a role and make the most of their opportunity, it is Mfiondu Kabengele. With the Florida State Seminoles last year, he came off the bench and dominated his minutes. He was a solid shot blocker and defender who can finish around the basket.
It is hard to get a sense of just what he can do. And this seems a bit low for him. But if you are not a super athletic, shot-blocking center, it is kind of hard to get noticed. Kabengele could be a steal.
Chuma Okeke is an intriguing player with a solid jump shot and good defensive instincts. Teams like him for all those intangible traits. It seemed like Okeke was set to become a first-round pick as a workhorse player.
But Okeke is coming off a torn ACL as he enters the draft. That injury at this juncture is a detriment to his draft chances. And he will have to prove himself quickly when he gets in the league.
KZ Okpala has a lot of skills that will intrigue NBA draft prospects. He has good size and length that projects him as a good defender. He took a big leap scoring with his offense this year with the Stanford Cardinal that bodes well for him.
Okpala should not be relied upon as the top scorer on any team. He struggled to get the Cardinal wins in that role. His game is still pretty rudimentary and his 3-point shot is still improving. He is a bit of a project but he has tons of talent to get there.
Luka Samanic was one of the few international prospects who went to the NBA Draft Combine. He is a versatile forward who can move at 6-foot-11 and hit the outside shot.
The big thing with Samanic is just his maturity and coming into his own with his game. He is still learning what it takes to play at a high level. But his skills are intriguing.
Carsen Edwards was a killer shooter for the Purdue Boilermakers proving to be one of the most dynamic scoring guards in the nation. That goes far beyond his hallmark NCAA Tournament performance.
He is not a traditional point guard. He has a scorer’s mentality. But his size makes him different than a lot of those type of guards. Edwards has a killer instinct and the size to defend. He just has to prove he can create separation and distribute the ball better.
We will be back after the draft to break down what the Orlando Magic did. Enjoy the draft!