After a breakout season, Nikola Vucevic is headed to free agency. They now face a tough decision with their lone All-Star that could set their team’s future course.
Here we are again. The Orlando Magic’s season is over. At least, this time it was after some playoff games.
Here we are again another summer debating the Magic’s future and where Nikola Vucevic fits in. At least, this time things are a bit different.
Nikola Vucevic is facing free agency, forcing the team to reckon with his place on the team in the short- and long-term. But the playoffs have also changed things for the team.
The Magic improved as a team significantly (up from 25 to 42 wins), they made the playoffs, and Vucevic managed to turn himself into an All-Star.
As many know, I am not the biggest Vucevic fan. I have been quick to call him out for his offensive inefficiency and, more importantly, his lackluster defense.
With that said, Vucevic deserves a ton of praise for his improvements this past season. His 3-point shooting improved significantly, his free throw attempts were up, his rebounding improved and his defense was far and away the best of his career.
Vucevic is no stranger to putting up nice numbers. But until this season, those numbers were mostly empty and meaningless. His numbers were not relevant to winning games. His defense left his teammates visibly frustrated. His rebounding fluctuated with his effort.
This year everything was different. Vucevic was engaged defensively throughout the season. He played his rear off on a nightly basis. He was a difference maker and he was recognized for it with his first All-Star selection.
A decision that felt simple at the beginning of the season now feels incredibly complicated. It is the central question for the Magic’s offseason.
Should the Magic sign Vucevic to a long-term contract?
Prior to this season the answer would have obviously been to let him go. But in a contract year when Vucevic knew it was time to put up or shut up, Vucevic put up.
Now the question that seemed so easy to answer only nine months ago has become a much more difficult one. What should the Magic do?
They should let Vucevic go.
The future problem
Why should they let him go?
There is a multitude of reasons. But the easiest place to start is with the elephant in the room: Mohamed Bamba.
The Orlando Magic drafted Mohamed Bamba in June clearly as the center they wanted to build their defense around.
President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond will tell you they drafted Mohamed Bamba simply because he was the best player left on their board. They have talked glowingly about his length and basketball IQ. He checks a lot of boxes of the typical Weltman draft pick.
Center was a clear focus in this post-heavy draft with several options the team could have pursued. They stuck with a player who was a project at the position, staking on his record physical attributes over a lot of other factors.
Bamba had an inconsistent rookie year. He looked like a raw first-year player who was still figuring out his body (it is not NBA-ready) and figuring out the league. A few hiccups were expected.
Weltman said during the team’s exit interviews that Bamba’s development would not affect the team’s decision regarding Vucevic’s future. Especially with Bamba recovering from a fracture left tibia, Weltman said the plan is to let Bamba develop at his own pace. The team does not want to put Bamba in a position to fail and are not going to give him a role he cannot handle.
But that, of course, suggests they expect Bamba to take on a larger role at some point in the future. They will not force him into that role before he is ready. So the question is when will he be ready? And that is part of why committing to a four- or five-year deal to Vucevic makes little sense.
Clearly, Orlando believes Bamba fell to the team at the sixth overall pick. And the writing seems to be on the wall.
Does Vucevic’s excellent season change anything in that regard? Maybe, but I do not believe it should or will.
Playoff struggles
While we can mostly agree Nikola Vucevic was great during the regular season, his weaknesses — especially his defense and ability to play through contact — were exploited in the playoffs.
The Orlando Magic continually dropped him in pick and roll coverage to try and mask his weaknesses. It worked to varying degrees. The Magic had a great defense this season.
But when teams really needed points (and had the ball handlers to do so) they just repeatedly attacked Vucevic in the pick and roll.
The Toronto Raptors repeatedly exploited this weakness throughout the playoffs. Nearly anytime the Raptors got settled in a half-court set they headhunted Vucevic (even with D.J. Augustin on the court) in the pick and roll.
The Magic tried a myriad of coverages. Vucevic tried hard but it did not matter. None of it worked.
The Raptors continually found points versus him.
As for his offensive troubles, Marc Gasol was pretty much the worst possible matchup for Nikola Vucevic. That kind of performance would be likely to repeat itself.
That said, his poor screens did not create much separation for anybody and that certainly did not help the offense.
Vucevic spent the whole season consistently scoring and positively affecting the game even if he was not scoring — if not with his spacing than with his screen setting and passing. All of that was gone and the Magic’s offense got stuck.
Vucevic found immense value this season because he was able to help others and impact the game without always scoring.
It is this overall impact that pointed the Magic toward Mohamed Bamba to begin with and why they have such high hopes for him.
The defensive future
This brings us back to Mohammed Bamba.
Why did the Orlando Magic take Bamba? They took him for his massive defensive potential.
For all the improvement Nikola Vucevic made this year, he still is not a natural shot blocker or rim protector. Teams will still seek to attack him and Vucevic’s margin for error defensive remains small.
Orlando Magic
Bamba, in his limited playing time, showed to be better at roaming the paint and helping off his man and recovering than Vucevic has at any point in his career.
Obviously, Bamba has a lot to learn that Vucevic already has mastered in terms of defense, but the potential there is clearly a lot higher.
The big picture that the Magic will look at is figuring out their identity moving forward.
Based on what the front office has put together so far, it is easy to believe this team is working itself up to become a lockdown defensive team with size and athleticism at each position. Orlando finished this season eighth in the league in defensive rating and coach Steve Clifford has long emphasized defense with his Charlotte Hornets team.
Defense is who this team wants to be.
While Vucevic provides size, he does not provide lockdown defensive potential nor does he provide athleticism. He does not fit the profile.
Looking at the roster, there are players like Markelle Fultz, Melvin Frazier Jr., Wesley Iwundu, Jonathan Isaac, Aaron Gordon and Mohamed Bamba. Vucevic does not seem to possess the traits that these players have.
There is really no reason for the Magic to delay this change. If Vucevic does not fit the team’s long-term vision, why commit to him long term? There is no guarantee he will work as a trade chip. Vucevic has been one of the most heavily rumored players for several years and yet the Magic consistently retained him.
Orlando needs to start shaping their team to this future.
Defensively, Magic players outside of Vucevic would be best suited to play an aggressive defensive scheme that would allow players to pressure the ball and create turnovers. But with Vucevic as the current paint protector, aggressive defense seems like a mistake because he will not be able to clean up mistakes.
Orlando also cannot run a swtich-all defense because Vucevic is not quick enough to get out on the perimeter.
The difficulty of a trade
It might be easy to say the Orlando Magic could sign Nikola Vucevic (even to a team friendly deal) with an eye toward trading him in the future whenever Mohamed Bamba is ready to take over. This seems like a sound strategy but carries its own risks.
Vucevic’s trade value has always been tough to gauge. The Magic have certainly made him available for several seasons now. The Magic should have been able to move him at some point.
They did not move him because his value has never been high enough to warrant giving him away. Orlando very well could be stuck with an expensive player who does not fit into their plans.
If Orlando retains Vucevic that means the team outbid other teams for his services. Will teams really be interested in adding a player they chose not to pay the amount it took to retain him? Deals like that in the past have not gone well for teams. Just look at Allen Crabbe on the Portland Trail Blazers (and then ironically the Brooklyn Nets). Or even look at Steve Clifford’s Charlotte Hornets and their retention of Nicolas Batum after a playoff season.
Signing Vucevic and committing a long-term deal with an eye on trading him is dangerous. It is just as likely as the team gets stuck with him for the course of the contract.
Adjusting without Vucevic
Certainly, plenty of fans argue the Orlando Magic will flounder without Nikola Vucevic on offense. That certainly is a possible outcome but it not the only outcome.
But it is not like the Magic were killing the league offensively — ranking 23rd in the league in offensive rating. Vucevic kept it going, but Orlando still found points elsewhere.
Coming into this season, Steve Clifford identified Nikola Vucevic as the best offensive player on the team. Because of that, he installed an offensive system that revolved around Vucevic and his strengths. That all made a lot of sense at the time.
But as the season progressed, some things happened.
The most important was probably Aaron Gordon’s success as a pick and roll ball handler.
Shockingly, Gordon as a ball handler was the most effective half-court option for the Magic versus the Raptors. During the regular season, Gordon posted 0.77 points per possession as the pick and roll ball handler on just 2.0 possessions per game. He bumped it up to 0.87 points per possession on 4.6 possessions per game during the playoffs.
The second really crucial development was Jonathan Isaac becoming a reliable 3-point shooter, making 37 percent from February on.
If Isaac was able to shoot a similar percentage next year the idea of Orlando being able to run an up-tempo, 4-out, pick-and-roll offense is promising.
At the end of the day, you can expect Clifford will tailor an offense around the strengths of his players. If Vucevic is not on the team, do not expect an offense that looks anything like it did this season and that could be a good thing. The team will adjust and they have young players who can grow into bigger offensive roles.
The decision on Vucevic was made tougher than previously imagined. He played well enough and the team’s success certainly has added new variables to the equation.
The answer should still be the same. Ultimately Vucevic is not part of the team’s long-term future. The Magic need to let him go.
Vucevic, with all his positive attributes, can certainly contribute positively to a NBA team. But with the future the Magic are trying to forge — an athletic, uptempo, defensive-minded team — Vucevic must be the sacrifice that brings forth the future, even if the transition might be painful.