Moritz Wagner has the shooting and offensive skills to be successful in today’s NBA, but his limited defensive versatility and rim protection limit his upside.
Basketball has changed in recent years. With the creation of the 3-point line and the new reliance on analytics, players have to be versatile to have value.
Gone are the days of the big man who can only work around the rim. The Shaquille O’Neals of the world are gone with a new breed of centers — the stretch five — replacing them.
Teams are moving away from centers who cannot knock down the three or defend the perimeter. The Golden State Warriors and their revolutionary small-ball lineups have taught teams that immobile centers are a weakness on the court.
While Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson were successful centers only a few years ago, now players with skill sets like theirs have limited roles in the NBA. Orlando Magic center Nikola Vuecevic is a prime example, as he cannot compete with the more agile centers in the NBA and is a major defensive liability.
Michigan Wolverines center Moritz Wagner is the new breed of center and indeed an interesting prospect in this year’s draft.
Wagner, likely to go in the late first to early second round, is an intriguing player at this spot in the draft. Wagner is a capable scorer and was arguably the best player on the runner-up Wolverines last year. But he is streaky from behind the arc and, for his size, is a weak rim protector. That limits what he can do in the NBA.
The Wolverines’ tournament run is reflective of Wagner as a prospect. The team, while finishing second in the tournament, was maddingly inconsistent.
One game, such as the one against Texas A&M Aggies, the team and Wagner looked unbeatable. Wagner dropped 21 points in the 99-72 victory in the Sweet 16 game. This great performance was sandwiched between two weak 12-point games, games where the Wolverines needed Wagner to step up.
Then in the Final Four, Wagner scored 24 points with 15 rebounds against the Loyola Chicago Ramblers. Unsurprisingly, he followed this great performance with a weak performance in the championship blowout.
This is Wagner as a player. When his shot is not falling, he often fails to contribute. But when his shot is working, he becomes a matchup nightmare.
The question — his success in the NBA will depend upon this —will be how he develops a game outside his shot.
The Good
There is a lot to like about Mortiz Wagner as a prospect.
Wagner is one of the elite 3-point shooters in all of this year’s class. He does all that as a center. Wagner has a nice stroke from the top of the key and has the ability to catch and shoot and shoot off the dribble.
In the past two seasons at Michigan, he has shot 39.5 percent from three. He has done this while shooting 274 threes during those two years. He is not afraid to take his shot and will knock it down with confidence.
Wagner is not afraid of the big moment either. He has performed well in the most important games in college. He shot 40.3 percent from three in conference games during his career and was a 2018 NCAA All-Tournament player.
But there is more to Wagner as a prospect than just his shooting.
Wagner’s driving abilities are underrated and flourish after a few made threes. He has a surprisingly good handle for a big man and has the ability to dribble up the court during fast break situations.
Wagner is a solid rebounder, with a defensive rebound percentage of 24.7 percent and a total rebound percentage of 15.7 (good for second and fifth in the Big Ten respectively).
And while Wagner is not known for his defense, he uses his 6-foot-10 body well and led the Big Ten last year in defensive win shares at 2.6. He was third in the Big Ten in defensive rating as Michigan gave up 92.3 points per 100 possessions with Wagner in the game.
All in all, he is not just a shooter. While this is his defining feature as a prospect, he can and has done more on the floor. And while the other aspects of his game are not as polished as his three, he has shown the ability to drive, post up, pass, rebound, and defend.
The Bad
Rim protection is essential in the NBA and is one of the most valued traits in centers.
NBA players from a young age are trained to attack the rim and create a play. The best defensive centers have the wingspan and leap to contest shots at the rim.
While his seven-foot wingspan is not bad, it does not compare to other players like Mohamed Bamba and his nearly eight-foot wingspan. It is no coincidence the top center prospects in this year’s draft class all are great rim protectors with good verticals and wingspans.
This is something the Orlando Magic really need from a center. Currently, the team has no true rim protector and has not since Dewayne Dedmon.
The Magic know all too well about the need for rim protection, as Nikola Vucevic’s greatest failure is in this area and leads to the Magic’s subpar defense. Magic opponents shot 62.6 percent from within five feet last season, placing the team in the bottom half of the league.
The Magic need rim protection, and this is something Wagner simply cannot offer.
Despite his size, he offers almost zero rim protection. Wagner, during his collegiate career, averaged 0.4 blocks per game. While Wagner has proven to be a solid college defender, this glaring lack of ability is a major concern for the NBA.
Wagner’s inability to protect the rim and his lack of lateral foot speed leaves him in limbo. He is not strong enough inside to be a true center,. But he is too slow to play power forward.
Without the ability to protect the rim, Wagner surely cannot be a starting center on a winning NBA team. While he can no doubt be successful and find his niche in the league, these factors limit his upside dramatically, and he projects to be a role player at best at the next level.
Draft Sites Say
Jacob Stallard, NBADraft.net
"A prototypical pick-and-pop big man, Wagner has a great combination of size and skill … Shot 39% from 3 his last year at UM, a great number for a 6’11” guy … Crafty scorer who can get open looks and get creative both around the rim and on the perimeter. . . . What may have worked with his faceup game in college will likely be much more easily neutralized in the pros as defenders are quicker and longer … Not a great rim protector and not really athletic or quick enough to defend the 4 either … May be neutralized to merely a stretch big at the next level."
Jackson Hoy, The Stepien
"Wagner’s package of face-up creation and off-ball shooting at 6-foot-11 will get plenty of looks from teams starting in the late first round. After a poor showing at the combine last year, Wagner returned to school and made huge improvements as a defender, rebounder, and ball-handler, making him much more interesting than the typical stretch big man he was last season. He still projects poorly on the defensive end in the NBA, but Wagner has the potential to be a unique offensive tool with his ability to create shots off the bounce and serve as a weapon in many shooting actions."
Kevin O’Connor, the Ringer
"Good 3-point shooter who can hit tough, contested jumpers off the catch. Strong screener who can pick-and-pop, attack closeouts, or roll. Solid ball handler who looks fluid on drives, though his first step must get quicker. . . . Struggles guarding on the perimeter; may not be a player who can comfortably switch screens. Not an ideal defensive anchor, as he doesn’t alter many shots at the rim. Hasn’t shown the ability to shoot jumpers off the dribble."
Final Word
Moritz Wagner was a great college player and clearly has NBA potential. He moves with a grace that is rare in big men and his excellent shot separate him from the rest.
Wagner has proven to be a threat at every spot on the court on offense, as he has exhibited success around the rim, in mid-range and from deep.
While his shooting is there, his overall game still depends too much on it. He tends to disappear when his shot is not falling and his dribble moves and pump fakes become far less effective.
Still, he has proven to be a capable rebounder and should continue to be a solid on-ball defender in the NBA, while struggling to defend the rim.
Wagner considered heading for the draft last year. But due to a poor combine and concerns about his body and NBA readiness he stayed at Michigan for another year. This decision paid dividends, as he had a great year with the Wolverines and has expanded his offensive game.
Next: 2018 NBA Draft Preview: Who is Mohamed Bamba?
There is clearly a place for him on an NBA team and he has the tools to be successful today. While he does have his limitations, he is great at his game and is an attractive pick in the early second round.