Marvin Bagley III may be one of the most talented and athletic players in this draft. But he struggled in some areas the NBA seems to require of its bigs.
Marvin Bagley III’s work around the basket is hard to miss. He is a workhorse, hustling for rebounds and using his athleticism to work around and get putbacks. With the ball in his hands, he is fluid and attacks with patience and aggression.
Marvin Bagley III’s work around the basket is hard to miss. In fact, most of the time it is Bagley who is missing. He struggles to use his athleticism to keep players in front of him, giving up easy lanes to the basket. He does not put forth a lot of effort on the block, getting easily muscled around.
The Duke Blue Devils turned to a zone defense in part to hide him and his deficiencies in man-to-man play. But teams still sought to attack him, getting him sucked out in pick and rolls and gleefully taking on the space. Duke did not have great defensive guards either, but Bagley was not exactly a deterrent. That would be his teammate Wendell Carter Jr.
And so Bagley brings a major question to whatever team drafts him. Can his supreme offensive skill and work with the ball in his hand cover up for his defensive shortcomings? And can this seemingly traditional power forward survive in a world that is getting smaller around the league?
Bagley can produce. And like any great scorer with his athleticism, he will put up points. That part comes easily to him. He averaged 21.0 points and 11.1 rebounds per game last year. He shot 61.4 percent from the floor, a solid number for someone playing largely so close to the basket.
At 6-foot-11, Bagley possesses great athleticism. He may be the best athlete in the entire Draft. It makes the other parts of his game and his shortcomings as a defender all the more disappointing. He seems like he should have the complete package.
But he lacks that one thing everyone in the league wants — positional versatility. And then lacks that thing everyone wants to see from the post positions especially — rim protection. Are his other skills enough to cover?
The Good
Marvin Bagley III truly stands out on the court with the ball in his hands. He is a supremely gifted and talented scorer. Not just in the traditional back-to-the-basket sense. He rolls aggressively through the lane and can finish well above the rim.
His stats are eye-popping and show just the reach he can have on the offensive end.
Whatever tool he needs to pull to score, he can pull it. He moves extremely smoothly through the lane and off the dribble, beating slower-footed big men to the basket.
There, he is probably the most athletic finisher in the Draft — yes, even over Deandre Ayton. Bagley can leap and score from almost any position.
His sense for offensive rebounds is second to none too. Bagley has a second nature for finding missed shots, collecting them and finishing with force. That is the appeal for Bagley.
If big men in the NBA are asked offensively to run a good pick and roll, fly to the basket and run the floor in transition, Bagley can do it. His offensive game is diverse, varied and, when needed, simple. Just get him around the basket and he will find a way to put it in.
Even from the outside, Bagley has shown some acumen as an outside shooter, although that is not his forte quite yet. Perhaps it is the only hole in his offensive game at the moment. He made 23 of 58 3-pointers last year (39.7 percent), a promising start to his potential shooting.
His ability to work on the offensive glass bodes well too. It takes a special kind of player to work the offensive boards the way he does. It takes a certain amount of fight to do that. And Bagley is energetic and engaged on offense in a way few players are in this Draft.
It feels like Bagley’s offensive ceiling is pretty much limitless. There is really very little he cannot do on that end of the court. And that is extremely impressive.
The Bad
If the story of Marvin Bagley III were all about offense, he might very well be the No. 1 pick. He is an impressive player on that end of the floor. He seemingly has all the tools anyone could want. And might even be able to transcend his outside shooting in a NBA that demands it even from its post players.
But as good as Bagley might be on offense, his defense needs that much work.
Despite his athleticism and length, Bagley was never able to put things together defensively. He was not a good rim protector and struggled to move his feet laterally.
The Duke Blue Devils went to a zone defense for the majority of their season. Coach Mike Krzyzewski and his disciples are famous for how much he loathes turning to zone defenses.
It seemed this decision was partially an effort to hide Bagley and his defensive flaws. Even then, it seemed like teams targeted Bagley on the defensive end. They picked him out and attacked him on that end.
What might be worse is that despite his fight and nose for the ball off the offensive glass, he does not show the same effort and fight on the defensive end. There are times when he just simply looks lost defensively. He was unable to make the right rotations or be in the right spot defensively.
It was a major concern for him and his development. Bagley has these immense physical gifts that he is able to apply on the offensive end, but cannot seem to bring them to bear on the defensive end.
It leads to perhaps the biggest question regarding Bagley. What position will he play?
Centers in the modern NBA almost are required to be rim protectors. Increasingly they need to have the defensive mobility to defend the perimeter and switch onto guards.
Bagley has all the athleticism to accomplish these things. There is no reason he should not have these abilities. And maybe that is the faith a coaching staff can have to teach him these things. But there was little indication Krzyzewski could instill those principles in him in his lone year at Duke.
At 6-foot-11, Bagley should have the size of a center. But his poor rim protection and defense project him out as a 4. But if he is a 4, he has to develop a more consistent outside shot.
In many ways, Bagley is the perfect modern center — a rim runner and athlete. In others, he seems like a dinosaur. A player better suited to the game as it was a decade ago than it is now.
That poor defense looms awfully large still in any case. It has the potential to blow up any potential fit for Bagley in the NBA.
Draft Sites Say
Jonathan Givony, ESPN
"Although Bagley has some positional concerns defensively, his athleticism, motor, rebounding, finishing ability and overall productivity are very attractive to Sacramento. Bagley has terrific scoring and rebounding instincts and likely brings better shot-making potential than he showed in college, with more spacing around him at the NBA level."
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer
"Plays his ass off. Has the potential to be an extremely versatile perimeter defender due to lateral quickness. Good weakside shot blocker who can fly out of nowhere to alter shots. . . . Not long or thick enough to defend the interior at an elite level, especially against larger centers like Joel Embiid or Karl-Anthony Towns. Questionable defensive instincts; tends to be a beat late on rotations, which raises concerns about his ability to anchor a defense. Subpar shooter with shaky mechanics. Sprays short, long, left, and right on misses. Also struggles from the line."
Cole Zwicker, The Stepien
"Bagley has high offensive potential as a play finisher if he plays the five in a kind of modern Amar’e Stoudemire role, but to optimize him requires a very specific ecosystem with a dynamic lead creator and defensive insulation."
Tajh Jenkins, NBADraft.net
"NBA-ready body … Positional versatility … Displays unusually smooth and fluid movements for his 6’11”, 234-pound frame. . . . Lacks the wingspan of other big men in his class … Has to continue to fill out his frame with upper and lower body strength … Sometimes gets out-muscled in the paint/post."
Final Word
Marvin Bagley III is going to be a productive player in the league. He works too hard on the glass and has too much offensive talent not to put up some gaudy numbers. That is something teams will weigh when they draft him because he is that good and active.
The question will be what happens with him on the defensive end. Can he turn that athleticism into a smarter defensive player? If he can, he might very well be the best player in this Draft. Certainly an easy top three player in this draft class.
Bagley is that talented. His leaping ability and offensive drive are things everyone should envy. It will help him generate raw production in the NBA. This is a guy who will score points and score a lot of them in the NBA.
The question for him and for any team taking him this high in the draft is to ask whether that offensive production is something you can build an entire offense around. . . and can cover for his lack of defensive awareness. With his raw talent, maybe there is hope he can learn defense even though he rarely showed that aptitude in college.
Still, it feels like Bagley is a bit of a dinosaur if he is to play the power forward position. His game has a lot of old soul to it. That is not a bad thing. That style still has at least a little bit of value. Especially if he can create his own value as a strong offensive rebounder.
Bagley will have to develop that outside shot to thrive at that position. Becoming something like a Joel Embiid there — as a big who can play both inside and out.
But what makes Embiid truly great is his strong defensive ability. Bagley will not make that impact on the defensive end. And his lack of size and build may keep him from transitioning to center.
Bagley is clearly a very talented player. One of the most talented in this draft. Selecting him is bringing in a guy who will work the offensive glass tirelessly and score and score and score.
Next: NBA Draft Preview: Who is Josh Okogie?
The question remains whether he can do the other things necessary to impact a game and be a true centerpiece star.