The Orlando Magic are back to work Tuesday after the All-Star Break. There is a lot for the Magic still to watch and accomplish in the final 25 games.
The NBA All-Star Break is over.
The Orlando Magic, the only team without an active participant at the event, got some much-needed rest. But they will get back to work Tuesday afternoon when the league officially reopens. And after two days of practice, they will tackle the final 25 games of the season.
The season is essentially over for the Magic. At 18-39, the team is in a logjam at the bottom of the standings for the worst record. And now is the time of the season we might see some odd things happen with various teams.
The Magic have made no indication they will do anything like that. They plan to play out these 25 games and gather as much information as they can.
The reality is the Magic are close to Playoff elimination and officially dousing those dreams. The Orlando Magic’s tragic number is 14 losses or 14 Miami Heat wins for playoff elimination. If the Heat stay on their 42-win pace, the Magic would have to go 24-1 the rest of the way to match. Not to mention climb over six teams.
The odds of that happening are pretty slim — FiveThirtyEight has it at less than one percent.
Still, there are a few things to look out for in the final games of the season. These games are still going to create some future for the Magic. The post-All-Star Break run for the Magic is not simply going wrote through the motions. Orlando has plenty to accomplish.
And there is plenty to keep an eye on as the season winds to its close. Yes, that includes the race to the bottom — a historic race to the bottom — that seems to be developing in the NBA this year.
With the NBA season about to kick back up again, let’s take a look at what to watch for the rest of the season.
The Race to the Bottom
There is no getting around it. One eye the rest of this season will be on the games and the other will be on the standings. And the bottom of the standings.
What is developing in the race for the top overall pick is pretty astounding when you take a look at it: there are six teams tied at 18 wins for the fewest in the league, including the Orlando Magic. There are seven games within 1.5 games of the worst record in the league.
It is going to be an incredible — or incredibly depressing — end to the season. Everyone in several fan bases are going to be on pins and needles fretting over every win.
Of course with so many teams in the race, every team may win itself into keeping the race tight . . . or that might make every win the difference between having the second-best odds and the sixth.
Yes, things are going to be that tight and that crazy. And for those of us — like me — who are opposed to straight tanking, the end of the season is going to be infuriating for a lot of reasons.
Our Zach Palmer laid out the case why the team is not likely to tank — for better or for worse. The team will get some key players back from injury.
Orlando also has the 20th easiest schedule left in the league. Only the Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Mavericks have easier schedules the rest of the way among the teams angling for those top lottery odds.
The Magic have a ton of home games too. After a big West Coast road trip in the first week of March, Orlando will have its longest homestand of the season. The Magic will have plenty of opportunities to win. Whether that is a good or a bad thing, in the end.
Return of the vets
Coach Frank Vogel is pretty excited. You can sense it whenever he gets asked about the chance of seeing some of his young veterans return to the lineup.
Really, since the first game of the season — when Aaron Gordon sprained his ankle — injuries have been the big story for the entire year. Elfrid Payton went down with an injury that second game against the Brooklyn Nets. Then came the D.J. Augustin injury as the team sat in first place in the Eastern Conference. Then the Jonathan Isaac injury in November. Followed by Terrence Ross.
Then Evan Fournier. Aaron Gordon again. Nikola Vucevic. And on and on and on.
Injuries will define why this season fell off the rails so quickly. The Magic never really had a chance with such a small margin of error already — a team with no defined superstars always has to rely on each other and that makes things tough.
Vogel said once the Magic get those guys back it will feel like he is coaching a completely different team.
The Magic expect to have Gordon back (absent the last nine games with a strained hip flexor) soon. Nikola Vucevic (out since Dec. 23 with a fractured left hand) is also due back shortly.
Jonathan Isaac could be back (more on him in a bit) soon too. Then comes Terrence Ross. He is starting to do some work on the court and doing on-court work. Ross is getting closer and closer to a return.
These are all valuable young veterans who can produce. The analysis the Magic are probably too good to tank because they have too many productive young veterans. This is a team full of competent players. At least individually.
The Magic are starting to get those players back. And it remains important that they do.
As Keith Smith of RealGM mentioned on the Orlando Magic Daily Podcast last week, the Magic have virtually no maneuverability under the cap this year. Their ability to add new player through free agency is going to be virtually none. All their cap room is going to get used up re-signing Aaron Gordon (do not worry, the Magic can go over the cap to re-sign Mario Hezonja if they choose).
If the Magic want to trade any of these players in the summer to shake up the team, such as Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic or Terrence Ross, the league needs to see them play. And the final 25 games will be their chance to do so. It will be the Magic’s chance to evaluate their team further and figure out what direction it needs to focus on this offseason.
Whether anyone likes it or not, it is important for the Magic to play these players and get the most out of them.
Jonathan Isaac’s return
If the rest of the season is about building toward the future and learning something for the 2019 season and beyond, then everything has to center around Jonathan Isaac and his continued growth and development.
Of course, Isaac has not seen the court since Dec. 26 and has only played three games since Nov. 11.
The Magic knew Isaac was a bit of a project. They did not expect him to take the world by storm and win Rookie of the Year. His defensive abilities were well ahead of his offensive abilities. And those bore themselves out in the 15 games Isaac played.
The Magic’s decision to shut Isaac down over his sprained ankle — that seems like it could be much more than that — was done out of an abundance of caution. Isaac is that important and that critical.
That does not mean he has not been working to improve himself or his play. Isaac said he has gained about 10 pounds in muscle working with the Magic’s weight training staff. Adding muscle was definitely something he needed to do considering his slight frame. And Isaac said he feels he is back to where he was before he got hurt.
Of course, it is great to say someone is a weight room champion or looks good in individual drills. But at a certain point, he has to play games and get out on the floor.
Isaac, when healthy, can hold his own on the NBA court. His defensive chops are extremely advanced for a player his age. But he can still improve a lot. Every rookie can.
Getting Isaac on the court is the best way for him to grow. Everyone knows that. And playing him alongside other key future players like Aaron Gordon is also key.
Isaac and Gordon have played just 53 minutes together. That is hardly enough time to draw any conclusions — but here they are: a 96.2 offensive rating and 97.3 defensive rating. Orlando needs to get more information and understand what they have in their rookie.
And just get him out there to begin with.
Growing the G-League
The Orlando Magic’s first year with a nearby G-League affiliate has been a bit of a mixed bag. The Magic roster was always full and the roster was tough to crack. But overall it has to be considered a success.
Wesley Iwundu and Khem Birch have both proven themselves very capable players and potential role players moving forward for this team. They both can point to their time with the Lakeland Magic as a contributing reason to that growth in their roles.
Orlando is expected to send Jonathan Isaac to the G-League for a couple rehab stints — perhaps even this weekend for big-ticket home games and a back to back for the young player. That is how the G-League is meant to be used.
The Magic also now have an open roster spot. They cleared one with the trade of Elfrid Payton. And Orlando has already publicly stated the team would look to sign a third point guard after the All-Star Break.
The team will sign former Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks guard Rashad Vaughn to a 10-day contract in the first player to fill that void, according to Shams Charania of Yahoo! Sports.
The Lakeland Magic do not have a traditional point guard to offer the Magic. Both Rodney Purvis and Troy Caupain, the two stars in Lakeland this year, are more combo guards. They work better as volume scorers rather than playmakers and initiators. But both have played well enough to earn some consideration for the main roster on a 10-day contract, at least.
Caupain is averaging 15.6 points per game and a team-high 5.6 assists per game. If the Magic are going to look for a point guard from their own G-League tam, Caupain would seem to be the guy who will get the first shot.
Purvis is a less natural fit as a point guard. But he is averaging a team-best 20.8 points per game and shooting 38.4 percent from beyond the arc. He has put together some incredible scoring performances already this season.
There are plenty of other avenues to improve the roster too. At a certain point, the Magic should call up Jamel Artis too and use up the rest of his two-way days. He certainly will get a call-up once the G-League season ends in March.
Orlando has some avenues to try out some new talent. And now they have the space to do so.
Continued Growth
Obviously the big thing the Magic will need to watch for and see — regardless of wins and losses — is the continued growth of several young players.
Aaron Gordon has had a breakout season, averaging 18.4 points per game and breaking out into the team’s next potential star. Gordon seems to have taken care of himself in free agency this summer. But Orlando needs to let him explore his game and continue to grow. He needs to figure out how he needs to play to continue to grow.
It is at least homework for his offseason.
But there are plenty of other players outside of Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac who have grown plenty this season. And can still continue to grow.
Orlando Magic
Mario Hezonja has been the biggest one. Although he is set to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, the Magic have invested well in his growth and given him the opportunity. He has forced his way into the rotation and will remain a part of the Magic’s playing rotation the rest of the year.
The Magic have to consider re-signing him after this season after this stellar run.
But even players like Evan Fournier have shown tremendous improvement this year. At the very least, Fournier has returned to his production level from 2016. Just as Nikola Vucevic has when he is healthy.
Orlando will want to see that growth continue. And, yes, that will mean continued winning when the Magic can. Orlando is going to be trying to win games. The team probably will not win the majority of them.
But considering much of this roster could very well be the same next year, a positive finish could help build some momentum. The Magic are still going to end up with a top pick in the Draft. Getting wins where they can has proven to build momentum.
In the last 25 games last year, the Orlando Magic finished last season 8-17 in its final 25 games, passing only the Philadelphia 76ers in lottery order. Neither the Orlando Magic nor the Philadelphia 76ers improved their draft position (Philadelphia used the Sacramento Kings’ pick to acquire Markelle Fultz from third) improved their lottery odds.
Orlando started this season with much the same group at 8-4.
In 2015, the Magic finished the last 25 games 7-18. The Orlando Magic at that point was four games ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers and eight games ahead of the New York Knicks, who ended up picking fourth ahead of Orlando.
In both those seasons, the standings were not as bunched up as they are now. But Orlando started the following season 19-13. There might be something to a strong finish feeding a hot start the next year.
Next: Orlando Magic entering All-Star Break fighting
Winning is a part of growth. And the Magic are not likely to win many games to end the season (even those records are not particularly strong), but they must continue to find growth for their young players wherever they can — both individually and as a team.