We have reached the quarter pole of the NBA season. The Orlando Magic have experienced a lot of highs and lows. We review what comes next for the Magic.
The Orlando Magic passed the quarter mark of the season a few weeks ago. And it was an up-and-down affair that gave fans — and likely management — no clear picture of what is in store for this season or exactly where to go.
On one hand, the Magic looked like they were about to break through starting the season 8-4. The team moved the ball effectively on offense and played with grit and determination defensively. Everyone sensed the team would fall back to earth eventually, but the team had some elements that at least kept everyone believing.
Then the Magic dropped nine straight games. They reverted back to the same bad habits that crushed last year’s nascent Playoff hopes and relegated the team to the deep lottery once again. Orlando seemed like they were the same team as last year.
Thrown into all that were a series of injuries that seemingly slowed the team.
Elfrid Payton missed eight games with a sore hamstring. D.J. Augustin followed him and missed seven games with his own hamstring issue.
Aaron Gordon missed a pair of games with a sprained ankle. Jonathan Isaac has been out for a month (15 games).
Evan Fournier has missed the last three games with his own sprained ankle. And Terrence Ross has missed the last six games with a MCL sprain and fracture of the tibial plateau.
All these injuries have sapped the Magic of key weapons and knocked them somewhat off rhythm. This is not a team that can survive a lot of these absences. Their margin of error is very small.
That may not be an excuse. The reality might be this team is exactly what everyone thought it was entering the season. And the Magic need to start devising ways to make some changes to the roster and shuffle the decks again.
That will begin with the trade season officially opening fully Friday. For now, the Magic will continue on with their season. They are angling to make the Playoffs still, but they will need to use the second quarter of the season to stay in the race. They could easily fall out and lose their season here.
As the second quarter of the season continues on, the Orlando Magic Daily staff got together to discuss what we learned in the first quarter of the season. And just how the Magic can keep themselves in the race.
What has been the most encouraging sign for the Orlando Magic in the first quarter of the season?
Ricky Scricca (@scricca1): The overall efficiency of the halfcourt offense (in the NBA’s top 10 all season per Cleaning the Glass) has been a pleasant surprise. I thought that would be the team’s biggest weakness entering the year. But statistically, it has been a strength.
Philip Rossman-Reich (@philiprr_omd): Aaron Gordon’s emergence has been the most encouraging sign this year. Entering the season, it was unclear if the Magic would even sign him to an extension. He was facing a prove-it year. He has made the decision to re-sign him a bit easier, looking like an emerging star. It will be hard for the Magic to let him walk now. And they might be willing to give him the max. It certainly seems like the Magic finally have a player with star potential knocking on the door.
Zach Palmer (@FmrTankCommandr): I would have to say that it was Jonathan Issac’s ability to play defense. Isaac has already shown in his limited time he is a difference-making defender. His absence has severely impacted Orlando’s defense. It is fair to say Jonathan Isaac’s sprain might have been a little worse than first reported but when he comes back, I would not be shocked to see Isaac play an expanded role with injuries to Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier.
Ryan Doyle (@RDoyle27): Aaron Gordon’s play has to be the most encouraging aspect for the Magic so far. Gordon is hitting outside shots and is continuing to polish his offensive game. He appears like a legitimate building block and should have a bright future with the Magic for years to come. Here’s to hoping that contract extension talks are already underway.
The defense is obviously a huge issue for the Magic. What is the best way to resolve it in the second quarter of the season?
Scricca: It is hard to say given all the injury issues. A trade or lineup change (like switching Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo in the rotation) might help. But ultimately the first thing that needs to be fixed is the defensive rebounding issues. It does not matter how many missed shots you force if your opponent gets the ball right back anyway. The Magic, in theory, have enough guys who can crash the glass — Nikola Vucevic, Bismack Biyombo, Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, etc. — to where this should not be as big of a problem as it is. There needs to be a bigger emphasis on boxing out and hustling for misses, as simplistic as that may sound.
Rossman-Reich: Aside from getting healthy, as Ricky said, the defense is a really difficult nut to crack. The team obviously has some defensive shortcomings and players who are clearly not the best defensively. Saying the team needs to play with more effort and intensity is too nebulous for me. The Magic can still do some schematic things to improve on defense. The reality is the Magic do not need to be a dominant defensive team. They just need to be league average. And with enough focus and commitment, there is no reason to think they cannot do that. Getting Jonathan Isaac back would also be a huge help. He could get added to the starting lineup and give the team the length it needs to switch more effectively. A lot of the Magic’s problems are just attention to detail and communication.
Palmer: There are so many problems that I am not sure there is much Orlando can do that does not involve trading a bunch of players. Elfrid Payton and Evan Fournier just cannot defend all that well right now. Jonathon Simmons has lost a semblance of defensive ability he showed with the San Antonio Spurs. Potentially a result of expending a lot more energy on offense. Nikola Vucevic has shown the ability to defend the pick and roll, but his effort wavers and the results can be disastrous for Orlando. Honestly, from a roster standpoint, there are just too many defensively challenged players for Orlando to improve too much on defense.
Doyle: Orlando does not have the roster to be a top-tier defensive team. It is always hard to call out a player’s effort, but I feel like the Magic go on stretches where they are not very engaged defensively. If Frank Vogel can somehow get the team to ramp up their intensity on defense, I think visible improvements can be made. Unfortunately, it likely will not be enough to put Orlando in the conversation with the NBA’s best units.
Other than the defense, what concerns you about the Orlando Magic from the first quarter of the season?
Scricca: Offensive decision making is still an issue. Aaron Gordon often forces the issue in isolation and when bringing the ball up in transition, and it shows in his incredibly poor efficiency numbers in both of those areas. Elfrid Payton is prone to ugly turnovers. Jonathon Simmons settles for tough midrange jumpers off pick-and-roll possessions. Veterans on the roster often neglect to make the right play passing to the open man. Some of these issues can be chalked up to typical young player stuff but others are a bit more concerning.
Rossman-Reich: The inconsistent point guard play is still very concerning to me. It is less about Elfrid Payton as a player and more about the intangibles needed to lead a team and get them back in the right direction. It seems like every time the Magic need a bit of a push or to get out of the rut, they do not have someone to take control. That should be the point guard in some respects. It feels like the team needs stronger leadership. That has been something lacking in the last five years. If Orlando wants to reclaim a semblance of that fast start, it has to start with the team’s leadership.
Palmer: The inability of Frank Vogel to understand how to use his players best. With the recent slew of injuries, the Magic have been playing a lot of Elfrid Payton and Jonathon Simmons together. There is a problem with this pairing for many reasons. The first issue here is that both Simmons and Payton need the ball in their hands to be effective. Payton has negative value to the team if he is on the court without the ball in his hands. Additionally, Simmons has not shown the ability to be an effective starter. Simmons still takes the same shots as a starter as he does as the sixth man but it hurts when he ignores more talented players. Vogel needs to understand his players’ strengths better and put his players in a position to succeed.
Doyle: I agree with Philip here. I do not think the Magic have an answer at point guard. Both Elfrid Payton and D.J. Augustin are not starting quality and do not have the talent to get the team under control. I think Orlando is desperate for a legitimate point guard that can run an offense effectively. I really like what Phil said about leadership as well, having someone on the floor that can be a leader is also missing from this team.
Evaluate the Orlando Magic’s Playoff chances after the first quarter of the season.
Scricca: Especially since the Indiana Pacers do not seem to be going away, the only way the Orlando Magic get in is with some kind of trade or other significant change. It no longer seems to be in the cards this season. But hey, it is still early. Maybe this team goes on a tear once it is fully healthy. Last time I did a roundtable I placed it at around 35 percent. Now I would say about 10-15 percent.
Rossman-Reich: They are probably what we thought they would be at the beginning of the season. The team is hovering on the outskirts of the Playoff conversation but still within striking range. But let us call them tenuous. With the way the Magic have played for much of the last month, they are looking like they will fade out sooner than they would like. The Magic may not make the Playoffs, but they at least need to remain in the conversation.
Palmer: Without a trade? I think there is no chance this team makes the playoffs. The team has the making of one that is going to implode. You can see some conflict between teammates on the floor in the form of looking guys off, but you can also hear some digs in the postgame interviews. The Magic may want to make trades sooner rather than later to preserve players value.
Doyle: Slim to none. I do not see the Magic making a run with the guys they have right now. I get the feeling the front office is going to sit and wait to see where the Magic are at the trade deadline and then make a move. With all of the injuries the Magic are dealing with, I cannot imagine how many more wins they will get before then. Something tells me Orlando will be sellers. Maybe it is that 2-15 record since November 11.
What is the biggest thing the Orlando Magic need to show in the second quarter of the season?
Scricca: I think it is possible to recapture parts of what made the start of the season so good. But more than anything they just need Jonathan Isaac back. Once the team is healthy again, I think it will come down to trusting each other on both ends — making the right defensive rotations and the right passes — and putting forth consistent effort for full games and on a nightly basis. As far as schematic changes I would like to see Aaron Gordon working off the ball more, but still just as involved in the offense. If that makes sense. That will mean running more sets that allow him to cut into open space from the weak side, perhaps off a screen or with Nikola Vucevic working in the post, rather than running a pick-and-roll and/or trying to attack a mismatch (which he is just not very good at statistically).
Rossman-Reich: I think the Magic need to show some fight. They need to show an inner resolve that they are going to stay in this fight. The calls to tank this season have already begun. And that might be the best long-term option for the Magic. I do not think management cares particularly what direction the season goes. They are still evaluating everything. But for fans, they want to see the team succeed. They want a reason to show up to the building and pay attention every night. Orlando going through a long losing streak really cemented an “It’s the typical Magic” feeling. And that is not healthy for a fan base. Orlando has to keep trying to fight its way into the conversation. That is how you build a culture.
Orlando Magic
Palmer: I think they need to show a willingness to want each other to succeed. At the beginning of the season when the Magic were winning games it seemed that every Magic player wanted their teammates to succeed. Now after going on an elongated losing streak, a lot of players seem like they are more concerned about themselves rather than the team. Orlando’s pace seems to be way down and the ball movement is certainly down. The defense likely is never going to find solid footing with the guys on board but the offense could certainly improve as we’ve seen before.
Doyle: Fight. The Magic need to try and keep this season alive over the coming weeks. After Wednesday’s loss to the LA Clippers, a handful of players called out their teammates’ effort. I hope that lights a spark under everyone and gets them going. Orlando has the talent to compete with most teams on a nightly basis, but this losing streak has seemingly destroyed the confidence in that locker room. The veterans in the locker room need to get the younger guys in the right mind frame. There are a handful of players that have experienced winning in their careers. Hopefully, that can rub off on the youth as December rolls along.
Next: Frank Vogel should experiment with all-defensive lineups
What do you think is in store for the Orlando Magic in the second quarter of the season? What are your expectations and concerns? Join the conversation and let us know in the comment below or on Twitter @omagicdaily!