The Orlando Magic have gotten off to a surprising 7-4 start. That is not the time to rest on anyone’s laurels, however. There are still some big questions.
It is still very early in the NBA season. Only 11 games — roughly 13 percent of the season unbelievably.
There is still a long way to go on this journey to the Playoffs and beyond. A lot can happen.
Yet, it is clear there is something different going on with the Orlando Magic. All the cautious optimism from the offseason has turned to outright giddiness. There are a lot of fans hungry and ready to believe in this team. And the Magic right now are giving them plenty of reason to believe.
Of course, Orlando has been down this road before. Two years ago, the Magic raced out to a 19-13 start and had everyone ready to jump on the bandwagon, only to fall off after a 2-12 January relegated the team back to the scrap heap. Orlando never caught that high again.
Not until now.
This time feels different though. For various reasons, this Magic team seems to have taken an identity and has something that can last more permanently.
Orlando may not maintain its 7-4 start and finish in the top-half of the Playoff picture, but it certainly seems more than possible the team remains in the Playoff picture for the long term.
The Magic have raised everyone’s expectations up a notch. And deservedly so.
Now, as they head out West and face perhaps the toughest stretch in their schedule, the Magic have a lot of work to do to maintain their new place in the Eastern Conference and in the league.
There is still a lot to recap after the first 11 games and lots to look forward to as the season picks up its pace.
That is why the Orlando Magic Daily staff got together to answer a few questions about the team ahead of the West Coast trip. We took a look back at what has surprised us so far and what we think will happen down the road.
What has been the biggest surprise of the season so far? Can the Orlando Magic sustain this?
Ricky Scricca (@scricca1): I was not expecting Aaron Gordon to come out shooting like he is right now. He will not shoot 50 percent-plus forever, but I think the shot is here to stay. Overall the Orlando Magic’s offense is genuinely improved and generating better looks from three, which is partially why they have shot so well. Those numbers will eventually regress, so the .600 winning percentage will taper off, but this is an improved team on both ends of the floor.
Ian Holmes (@ianholmes83): I think the biggest surprise has to be the offensive fluency the team has shown. I think we were all hanging on to the hope of how they played after the All-Star Break last season. But we knew that results did not really support the new up-tempo way they played. But the combination of pushing the pace and the vastly improved shooting from 3-point range really has set the Magic up well through the first 10 games.
Jonathan Treadway (@JTMagic1989): To me the biggest surprise has been the improved shooting from the team as a whole.
I believed going into the season Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic would have improved shots, but their consistency and mechanics from long mid-range and mostly behind the 3-point line this year have been impressive. Couple that with improved shooting from Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton and bench players and the offense is helping drive this team to wins. A big portion of that is shot selection and easy transition baskets.
Yes, overall shooting percentage will go down throughout the year. But as long as the shot selection stays good, the transition stays a big factor and the whole team does not go cold during a stretch together, the offense can stay pretty potent.
Dar-Wei Chen (@chendw): It has to be the outside shooting, right? Nothing has been as surprising as how downright competent the Orlando Magic have looked shooting from the outside (the games against the Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics notwithstanding), which has also loosened up other elements of the offense.
There was a point about five games into the season when the Magic were leading the league in 3-point percentage at something like 44 percent and the second-place Golden State Warriors were about 4-5 percentage points behind. That was never going to last, but the fact the team even has the capability of putting up those types of numbers for a stretch shows you just how much things have come along.
Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic have obviously put in lots of work over several summers now. And while there were always hints there would be an improvement (Gordon at Summer League, Vucevic gradually shooting more 3s over the years), there is no way anyone expected improvement of this magnitude.
As of now, the Magic are still second in 3-point field goal percentage at 40.6 percent (just behind the Warriors), and I probably do not expect that to last either, but a finish in the top 5-10 would already be a great surprise, given the Magic are taking a league-average number of threes (29.4 per game) and not being excessively cautious about the threes they take.
Philip Rossman-Reich (@philiprr_OMD): I did not expect the Orlando Magic to be relying so heavily on a killer offense to win this year. I thought, like pretty much everyone else, the team would have its moments offensively but largely struggle. This was going to be a middle-of-the-road team on that end at best. That has not been the case.
The Magic are shooting the lights out and earning the accolades. With each passing game, it is becoming clearer this team’s offense is very very good. And it is not going away anytime soon.
Credit should go to Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic here. Going from 30-percent 3-point shooters to nearly 40-percent 3-point shooters have changed the Magic’s offense. The amount of space everyone has to operate is clear. You can literally see their gravity as they work beyond the 3-point line. Defenses are respecting them and so this trend is more than established at this point.
What still concerns you about the Orlando Magic? What do you think will not last this year?
Scricca: My two main concerns are rebounding and attacking the rim. This team is near the bottom of the league in the frequency of shot attempts at the basket, which is a major red flag for how efficient this team will be on offense when threes stop falling.
They are also in the NBA’s bottom three in defensive rebounding. Considering how important defensive rebounds are for transition opportunities and how important transition opportunities are for the Magic’s offense, that will have to improve there somehow. Hopefully, Elfrid Payton provides a boost in both of those categories.
Holmes: Teams are still getting to the basket a little too easily. The Orlando Magic are certainly active defensively and really are thriving with deflections and steals. But straight line drives are still a weakness. Also giving up way too many offensive boards. The team has survived this for the most part so far due to the efficient shooting and taking care of the ball. But we know the shooting will not be this high forever, and the Magic will have games where they turn the ball over. Orlando needs to make sure its rebounding falls in line with turnovers and shooting. Otherwise, it will cost the team.
Treadway: Two major areas: Giving up points in the paint and rebounding. The perimeter defense for the Orlando Magic this year has been pretty good for the most part, but they are letting too many drives and cuts to the paint for easy finishes happen. A major worry for the defense if/when the shooting starts to cool down. Rebounding is also hurting the team giving opponents lots of second- chance points and missing out on fast break opportunities.
Chen: The team currently is holding opponents to the second-lowest 3-point percentage (31.6 percent) in the league. But somehow it does not feel like that should be the case. The Magic’s defense, in general, has been okay, but it feels like the low 3-point percentage against has been more a product of opponents just missing shots rather than great contesting on the Magic’s part.
The season is still young enough that one or two games can really throw off the stats. I feel like in the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers games, the opponents just missed shots that they normally make. If opponents start making shots at the rate they’re supposed to when playing the Magic, that’s going to eat at the Magic’s margin for error.
Rossman-Reich: I am very concerned about the team’s defense. They rank really well right now — sixth in the league in defensive rating. But it sure feels like that is covering up for a lot of flaws. Flaws like the most points allowed in the paint per game. Flaws like giving up nearly a 25-percent offensive rebound rate.
The team still is trying to learn the best way to communicate and work together through their switching scheme. There are plenty of occasions where players are pointing at an open man expecting someone else to pick him up. The team is not quite together yet. And eventually the open 3-pointers they tend to give up will fall against them. Orlando has to get its defense right.
Have your expectations for this team changed? What is the Orlando Magic’s new realistic goal?
Scricca: My expectation was between 29-35 wins, which is admittedly a pretty wide range. But I do not think that has changed for me. Last year’s team had a point differential of a 24-win team, so if this team even wins 30, that would be a huge improvement. I have not changed my 29-35 expectation but I am definitely leaning closer to 35 than I was before.
Holmes: I do not think my expectations have changed massively but maybe increased a little. I was in the 32-33 wins category before. I think it is realistic after this start and the way the East has played out in general so far to bump that number to 36-38. I still think this team has a losing streak in it somewhere down the road. It will be interesting to see how they can respond to that. We have seen just how important Elfrid Payton is to the way the Orlando Magic want to play. I think after the hot start without him, other teams were starting to figure the Magic out. If Orlando loses Elfrid Payton or Nikola Vucevic for any considerable time, it would be hard to remain competitive on a consistent basis.
Treadway: Going into the season I was cautiously optimistic about this team liking the improvements to the roster and believing that they could open some eyes. I had their win total at between 38-40 wins, higher than most people. And I have to say, I think it has improved, not by much, but definitely improved. If this team can stay healthy, I think they have a chance to push for 42-44 wins. Maybe I am still being overly optimistic, but they have shown they can win big games early in the year.
Chen: FiveThirtyEight’s models project the Magic to finish 42-40 and have a 65 percent chance to make the playoffs. I think that is a bit too optimistic as an average finish, but I could see the Magic topping out at around 42 wins. Something like 38 wins is probably where I would set the over/under right now.
The Magic have also gotten relatively lucky with some scheduling and injuries: the San Antonio Spurs were without Kawhi Leonard, the Memphis Grizzlies were without Mike Conley, the New York Knicks were without Kristaps Porzingis, the Cleveland Cavaliers are still figuring things out early on. Those wins are good in the mathematical sense of trying to make the playoffs, but they might not be true indications of how good the Magic actually are.
Rossman-Reich: As I have said on Locked On Magic for much of the last week, I think you can raise your expectations up a notch. It is still early in the season and, as Magic fans know from 2016, a lot can still happen.
Still, I had this team as a 35-win team and just missing the Playoffs. I thought the expectation was to play meaningful games into March. And, more than that, the goal was to define its future beyond this year. The real goal for the season is to figure out which players to keep and which ones need to move on.
But this fast start has surprised everyone and made it look like there is more to this core than previously thought. I think you can, at this point in the season, bump your expectations up a notch. The Magic have had some really impressive wins already. So I think the expectation now is to make the Playoffs.
Who is the early candidate for the Orlando Magic’s All-Star?
Scricca: It is hard to pick between Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier. I believe Gordon is the better all-around player, but Fournier has been scoring at a higher volume, which generally leads to more All-Star votes. I would vote Gordon, personally.
Holmes: It is great to be able to say that so many players are having career years at this stage so there are numerous options. From a purist’s view, I think Evan Fournier has been fantastic across the board and his consistency has been huge. But the leap that Aaron Gordon has made and his skillset make him the most likely choice for me.
Treadway: There are a handful of guys who could be in the mix for this. Nikola Vucevic was minorly getting mentions last year, Evan Fournier has played very well and, if Elfrid Payton continues his strong play coming back from injury seeing how much the Magic missed him while he was out, Payton could make a very good case there.
I think though the first player I would pick from a playing and conventional standpoint has to be Aaron Gordon. His overall play this year and the jump he took from last year has been ASTOUNDING. Couple that with the fact that he has already made a name for himself at All-Star weekend being in (and still should have won) the dunk contest, he already has that going for him.
Chen: Who *should* make it and who has the best chance of *actually* making it are often two different things when it comes to NBA All-Star. Aaron Gordon is probably the Magic’s most important player with his defensive versatility and expanded offensive game. But Evan Fournier has a better chance of maintaining a scoring average greater than 20 points per game, which is a “sexy” number that tends to attract All-Star attention. Either one would be justified for a selection if he keeps up his early level of play. Nikola Vucevic also has a potentially decent case, but his reputation as a bad defender might make a selection difficult (he’s not a great defender, but he’s also actually not that bad either).
Rossman-Reich: Aaron Gordon is probably the answer because of his highlight plays. Coaches are like us, they probably gravitate to the highlights in making these selections. But Evan Fournier is the real All Star for this team for me. He is the most consistent offensive option for the team and has regained his efficiency from two years ago while bumping up his scoring average. He is reliable for a good game almost every night and has shown the consistency needed. Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are getting the headlines for their growth, but Evan Fournier is just steady. And that is extremely valuable.
What is the big question you have left for this Orlando Magic team that they can answer on the West Coast trip?
Scricca: Can they keep up their energy over the course of a full season? They play the Golden State Warriors in Oracle Arena the third night of the trip. Both teams will have had a full day of rest, but the Orlando Magic will have just played against the fast-paced, motion-heavy Denver Nuggets offense at high altitude. It will be telling to see how the Magic respond to those conditions against such an imposing adversary.
Holmes: I think re-integrating Elfrid Payton during the West Coast trip will be a big factor. Having gotten off to the hot start without him, I wondered how things might change in terms of spacing and shooting. But he showed vs. the New York Knicks how integral he can and will be for this team. Getting both first and second units familiar with rotations and their roles will be big during the next five games. But the big lesson could come on the other side of the trip. If Orlando returns with a losing record or a losing streak, how they handle that will tell us most about the 2018 team.
Treadway: We have seen this team will play with energy and intensity every night, I think the biggest question still left is, can they tighten up defensively for entire multiple games? And how will they handle adversity?
Chen: I am looking forward to seeing whether Elfrid Payton will come out with a lot of pent-up energy after being out for most of the Orlando Magic’s nice start to the season. He has probably heard some people say the Magic might be better with D.J. Augustin running the show and he will want to prove those people wrong. The first game against the Phoenix Suns is very important because going to Denver in the second game of a back-to-back is difficult. And the game against the Golden State Warriors will be tough for obvious reasons. Splitting the four games (by winning against the Phoenix Suns and the Portland Trail Blazers) will keep the good vibes alive from the surprising start to the season.
Rossman-Reich: The Orlando Magic have performed really well on the road so far this season. They have gutted out some tough wins away from the Amway Center. I want to see that continue as they head out West — and into this road-heavy stretch. These next two weeks are going to test the Magic’s togetherness and cohesion. That chemistry they have built throughout the last few months faces a big test. I want to see how the Magic measure up and how they respond to adversity. So far, they have done pretty good — fighting off the injuries and getting some nice wins when they are not at their best. But this is going to be a tiring stretch of games. A stretch that likely determines where the Magic stand for the rest of the year.
Next: OMD Mailbag: Fast Starts and Road Trips
Be sure to leave your answers in the comment section below. Let us know what you think about the Orlando Magic’s hot start and what concerns you as the team begins this West Coast swing. You can always contact and discuss the Magic with us on Twitter @omagicdaily!