The Orlando Magic opened their regular season Wednesday and the season is off and running. The OMD staff answers some key questions as the season starts.
The Orlando Magic season is off and running. A 116-107 win over the Miami Heat has everyone feeling good about the team once again. The Magic won their season opener for the first time since the 2013 season — that is Jacque Vaughn‘s first season as head coach if that seems forever ago. And the team has a record better than .500 for the first time since January 2016 — that was the London trip, again if it seems forever ago.
Life is good at 1-0.
Of course, the Magic said after the game they could do a lot better. Orlando lost a 17-point lead and needed some heroics from Evan Fournier to pull out the win Friday. This was a game the team wanted to put the hammer down and simply could not in the end. But they still found a way to do enough to win.
On one hand, it seems like the Magic played well enough and are good enough to win these games they even admitted they would lose a season ago. On the other hand, the team still showed some fatal flaws that could come back to haunt them this season. Among them, a sometimes anemic half-court offense and a perimeter defense that can be porous at times.
The Magic have a lot to learn and grow in the next 81 games. A lot can still happen one way or the other.
The preseason predictions for the Magic still were not optimistic. That is not going to change even after Orlando’s impressive win Wednesday night. It may take a while for everyone to catch up.
Until then, the national expectations for the Magic are for some players to make some internal improvement and the team to be slightly better. But to many, this is not a Playoff team. Not particularly close to one either.
The Magic have their work cut out for them still. It is a long road to get to the Playoffs.
So what do we expect from the Magic this season? As the season gets set to begin, we gathered the Orlando Magic Daily staff together to highlight their keys to success and what they think will go down for the 2018 season.
What is the biggest key to success for the Orlando Magic this season? What is a success for the Orlando Magic this season?
Ricky Scricca (@scricca1): I think the biggest key is how coach Frank Vogel manages his rotations. The Orlando Magic should try to win this year if they want to start repairing their national reputation, and that will require him to figure out lineups that can defend and still have some modicum of shooting and playmaking. This is also a “season for evaluation” as much as anything, so he should try to get creative at times so the organization can see the full range of possibilities with Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Elfrid Payton. Different combinations with Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac will be important to watch.
Zach Palmer (@FmrTankCommandr): I believe the key to this season for the Magic is defense. Listen, it is tough to expect the Magic to score in the halfcourt without the requisite weapons to do so. So how does Orlando score? By playing outstanding defense and scoring in transition. It is clear the Magic want to play with a blistering pace and it is also clear they have some great transition players. Now it is just up to Orlando’s defense to create as many transition opportunities as possible.
Orlando Magic
Philip Rossman-Reich (@philiprr_omd): The biggest key to success for this Magic team is their pace. They have to be able to push the pace and get out in transition to have success. That is what their offensive style is built for. And with their lack of shooting and strong individual scoring, that is how they will have to score. This will inevitably mean the Magic are good defensively, or at least pesky enough to create turnovers. We saw the Magic were able to get out in transition even after makes. They will force the tempo and force defenses to stay attentive early in the shot clock. That is something. Success to me is forming this identity and at least having that distinct style teams have to worry about.
Drew Miller (@Drewmill_): While the Magic need better rotations, an improved defense and better tempo, the biggest key, in my opinion, is the development of the team’s half-court offense and 3-point shooting. The Magic ranked almost dead last in offensive efficiency last year, coming in at 29th in the league. Only a few teams (the Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder) were able to make the playoffs last year while ranking in the bottom half in offensive efficiency. The Magic’s offense often stalls in the half court, a direct result from a lack of 3-point threats and poor ball movement. Aaron Gordon’s development from the outside is crucial. Signs are positive so far, as in preseason Gordon shot 9 for 21 from three. The Magic must adapt to the modern NBA — a NBA where the best teams move the ball and are efficient from three.
After the preseason, what are your biggest concerns for the Orlando Magic?
Scricca: This was a concern before the preseason too, but scoring in the halfcourt will be tough. This team may look like world beaters when they get out in transition, but once their opponents gather their bearings and prevent those opportunities, the Orlando Magic’s offense collapses. I do not see this getting better unless a major trade that improves their spacing happens.
Palmer: I still do not know if the Magic have figured out how to make the bench work. Coach Frank Vogel seems very much against the idea of staggering his lineups so for stretches of the game the Magic go five deep off their bench. This would be far less of a problem if the Magic had a backup point guard capable of running and gunning. But in the preseason it seemed like neither Shelvin Mack nor D.J. Augustin really embraced running in transition. Without the ability to run in transition Orlando’s bench unit really has no way to generate points and remain competitive.
Rossman-Reich: I am still really concerned with the defense. The preseason defensive numbers for the Magic were really good. But Vogel is right. These numbers have almost no value. The Magic scrambled well and their intention and energy were fine. But they were too often out of position and over-relying on help. The perimeter defense was not up to par for this team. And that is, as everyone on the team acknowledged, what the team needs to improve on most. Elfrid Payton’s defensive issues are well chronicled. Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier are inconsistent there. Orlando has to be better defensively to take a step up and feed the offense. Vogel is a great defensive coach, but he may not have the horses to push the team higher.
Miller: I feel point guard play is a huge concern after a lackluster preseason from Elfrid Payton, D.J. Augustin and Shelvin Mack. Payton struggled last year on both sides of the ball. And I did not see much improvement in this albeit small sample size. Payton’s shot still looks broken and he struggles to space the floor. While coming out of college, Payton was hailed as a top defender, he has struggled mightily and I did not see any improvements in his preseason action. The veteran Augustin outplayed the free agent signee Mack, which is not a good sign. Augustin might have won the backup job, which is concerning, to say the least, given his love of the long two. The Magic’s point guard play has and will lead to a stagnate and poorly spaced offense.
What was your biggest surprise from the preseason for the Orlando Magic?
Scricca: Two things: first, Khem Birch was lights-out and deserves a spot in the rotation. I expected him to be good, but he blew away my expectations even in limited minutes. Second, I expected to see more Shelvin Mack than D.J. Augustin. I was hoping Mack would take Augustin’s spot in the rotation, but Augustin simply looked better in the preseason. We will have to see how this plays out as the regular season starts.
Palmer: I would say the biggest surprise for me was just how hard Jonathon Simmons played. I mean, it was preseason but there is no way you could tell by the effort Jonathon Simmons was giving. You can tell Simmons loves basketball and loves winning. Jonathon Simmons is going to be a real tone setter for this team and that is something the Magic have not had since Jameer Nelson left. I would not be shocked at all if you hear stories about how Simmons has become the unquestioned leader of this team by the All-Star break.
Rossman-Reich: I was honestly a bit surprised by D.J. Augustin’s play. I had pretty much written him off for this season and handed the backup point guard job to Shelvin Mack. Even in the early stages of the preseason, it looked like Augustin might repeat his struggles from last year. He just was not good enough to pick up the pace and play at the speed the Magic need. When Elfrid Payton leaves, there is a very noticeable decrease in pace and energy. But Augustin got better and more comfortable in each game. Simmons took on a bit more of the on-ball responsibilities and Augustin’s shooting worked better off the ball. I liked how he played as the preseason went on. I am (more) comfortable with him as the backup point guard.
Miller: Marreese Speights played surprisingly well this preseason, and I believe he might have won himself a job in the second unit. Marreese Speights greatly outplayed Bismack Biyombo and showcased his shooting touch throughout the preseason. Speights could be an important player this year in terms of spacing the floor. His 43.8 percent 3-point percentage was second on the team. A signing that did not garner much attention, Speights looks like a legitimate role player.
Which player do you need to see more from for the Orlando Magic to succeed this year?
Scricca: If Elfrid Payton can take another step as a playmaker and improve as a defender, that will be very meaningful for the Magic. I do not expect him to get a 3-point shot anytime soon. But obviously, that also would not hurt. But I hope the ending to last season was real and we see him continue to grow.
Palmer: I would have to agree with Ricky here and say: Elfrid Payton. The biggest concern I have with Payton is his defense. If he can stop being beaten so consistently on the perimeter or at least slow guys down some Orlando’s defense could improve dramatically.
Rossman-Reich: Absence makes the heart grow fonder, I suppose. But I need to see more from Terrence Ross. I have defended Ross pretty heavily for that last starter’s spot, citing continuity. But Jonathon Simmons is coming. It is hard not to get excited about his talent. And as he gets more comfortable and produces in an expanded role, he will put pressure on Ross. Ross missed a lot of time because of injury. That is the chance Simmons is going to wait and hunger for all season. But Ross is a capable shooter and can do a lot of things offensively. The Magic need him to be more efficient.
Miller: While I would enjoy discussing Mario Hezonja, I will take the easy choice here — Aaron Gordon. Gordon is the most important player on the Magic for this season and for the future. Gordon must develop into a semi-star this year ( around 18-plus points, eight rebounds per game) for the Magic to be successful. I think the Magic’s season may ride on Gordon’s ability to shoot from outside, as a sharp-shooting Gordon would open up passing and driving lanes. The key to unlocking the team’s putrid half-court offense holds in Gordon’s hands.
What is your prediction for the Orlando Magic this year? Is this a successful season?
Scricca: A couple months ago, my prediction was 35 wins and narrowly missing the eighth seed. I think they are significantly better than last year and a six-win improvement is within reach. But their point differential last year was that of a 24-win team, so that kind of substantial improvement might only lead to 30 or 31 wins (probably around 10th or 11th in the East). But more important than the win total is how the team actually looks: Are the young guys taking steps forward? Is the team playing with heart? The answers to those questions will determine whether this season is successful.
Palmer: It is clear to me that this year’s team is significantly better than last years. Heck, it is even significantly better than the second half of last year. Two years ago the Magic ended up with 35 wins and I think that is the area of where Orlando will finish this year. If I had to pick a single number I would go 37 which potentially lands Orlando in the playoffs in the weak East. But I think the range the Magic end up at is between 33-41. Anywhere in that range is a pretty nice step forward for Orlando.
Rossman-Reich: I have the Magic in the 32-36 win range and settled in at 35 wins. That puts them 10th in the Eastern Conference and playing meaningful games to the final week in the season. But it is hard for me to say this is a playoff team. Not with so much uncertainty about how all the pieces fit together and the struggles this team will surely have on the offensive end. This is a flawed team. A better team than last year. But the flaws are too big to ignore.
Miller: The optimist in me wants to say 37-40 wins and a possible playoff berth. But, the realist in my projects the team to finish with 28 wins. It is hard to project such a lowly number, but the Magic actually outperformed their statistics last year when they won 29 games. The Orlando Magic had the second worst net rating last year. At -6.8, the team had a worse net rating than the Brooklyn Nets, meaning the 29 wins might have been better than the quality of the team (which is scary). While the team added some nice players, I do not trust Frank Vogel to manage the new players correctly (his rotations are largely ineffective) and I do not trust him to develop our young talent. With these factors in mind, I predict the Magic will disappoint this season.
Next: Orlando Magic pass their first test of adversity
What are your thoughts and expectations for the season? Let us know your answers to our questions in the comments below or by tweeting at us @omagicdaily.