Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag Vol. 25: What comes next?

The Orlando Magic had an interesting summer that helped answer some questions but left a lot more. I look at what comes next in this OMD Mailbag.

The calendar has turned to August. Well, almost August. There is still that pesky final day of July.

It is, however, that time of the year where things begin to quiet on the NBA front. Free agency has slowed to a trickle and rosters are pretty much full. The only thing left to do is fill out the rest of the roster, watch Eurobasket and get ready for training camp.

Or trade for Kyrie Irving. That could be a possibility. Who the heck knows what is real anymore? The NBA never is one to stay dull even when it seems like everything is complete.

The Orlando Magic have a full roster and their offseason is likely done — barring that surprise trade. And it was a doozy of an offseason. A surprisingly strong one for a team that seemingly had little flexibility to make moves.

Adding Jonathon Simmons, Shelvin Mack, Marreese Speights and Arron Afflalo in free agency were all big surprises. They bring a key veteran presence for the team off the bench. Something the Magic were certainly lacking last year.

Ostensibly, though, Orlando still carries with it a lot of the questions remaining from last year. Who will score the ball? Can the Magic stick to a defensive identity? Can defense still win in this league? When will Aaron Gordon arrive? Can Elfrid Payton find consistency on both ends?

And then there is Jonathan Isaac and just how ready the rail thin rookie is to play in the NBA. And what kind of role he can play?

The Magic have a long way to go and plenty of questions to answer. But they also face an Eastern Conference that seems extremely watered down. Orlando may not be ready to compete for a championship, but it sure feels like a seventh or eighth seed could be within reach.

There is a lot of time left to answer these questions. There is still a full month to go before players even begin trickling back into town for group workouts and open gyms — let alone training camp.

As the summer closed down, though, I felt like it was time to answer the questions I can. That is why I opened up the Orlando Magic Daily Mailbag once again. It is time to answer your lingering questions as the summer officially hits the August hiatus.

From F. Mercado via Comments

"With our free agency signings having an abundance of playoff experience (assuming [Marreese] Speights is on board), how likely is it that it will translate to pushing the Magic to the level and into the playoffs in a weakened Eastern Conference?"

Time to get right to the point, huh?

I do not think it is crazy to at least start talking Playoffs as a realistic possibility for this Magic team. It is still something of a small chance. I would not go to Vegas and bet on the Magic to make the top eight.

It all starts with how the Eastern Conference has fallen apart this summer.

There are three teams that appear primed to fall out of the Playoff picture because of All-Star players leaving the conference.

The Atlanta Hawks lost Paul Millsap to the Denver Nuggets in free agency. The Chicago Bulls traded Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Zach LaVine, coming off a torn ACL. And the Indiana Pacers traded Paul George to the Oklahoma City Thunder for a return that raises a few chuckles.

Those are three teams likely out of the Playoff picture next year. That means three teams have to replace them.

I still like the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards and Milwaukee Bucks to make the Playoffs. I feel fairly confident the Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets will take the next two spots.

That last spot? It should be a free for all.

The New York Knicks (with Carmelo Anthony), the Detroit Pistons, the Philadelphia 76ers and probably the Orlando Magic will be in the group fighting to get the final Playoff spot.

So did the Magic do enough to get themselves there? That is the part that is a big question and depends on a lot of things. I think it is still very difficult to figure out how this team is going to play.

The good news is the way the Magic played to end the season was encouraging. The starting lineup, which returned intact, had a +1.4 net rating in 410 minutes. That is encouraging. The bench lineups last year were really really bad.

So if the Magic have improved their bench, it is reasonable to think the team could take that step up to compete for a Playoff spot. With the veterans they signed over young players, it seems the Magic want to go for that spot. Just do not expect them to sell out for it.

My concerns still revolve around the team’s lack of consistent scoring. And that starting lineup despite that positive net rating was a sieve defensively. An 8-16 post-All-Star Break record should not inspire confidence.

I think the Magic have to get out to a quick start and help set the pace if they want to make a more serious Playoff run.

So call me cautiously optimistic.

The Magic’s moves this offseason created a ton of logjams all over the roster. It is tough to find minutes for a lot of players — including some newcomers. Arron Afflalo seemingly pushes Mario Hezonja out of the rotation. And Wesley Iwundu is going to have a tough time scratching minutes.

Adding Marreese Speights and Khem Birch has created a ton of depth at center. Not to mention Bismack Biyombo and his $17 million contract remains on the bench behind Nikola Vucevic.

Everyone is quick to believe a trade is coming . . . soon.

I am not sold on that. I think the Magic are happy to go into camp with depth and let them battle it out for playing time. But that does not mean something will go down inevitably.

Ever since the Magic acquired Bismack Biyombo, the clock started ticking for Nikola Vucevic. Or for one of them, at least. There was no way the Magic could keep both. They both want to be starters and only one can.

Vucevic is eminently more movable. He has one year left on his contract after this season and his production still outperforms his contract. So I think Vucevic will be in trade rumors once again when they pick up.

The reality is not many teams are looking for offensive-minded bigs who struggle on defense. The market is oversaturated with them — from Greg Monroe to Jahlil Okafor to Enes Kanter. The benefit the Magic have is Vucevic is on such a team-friendly deal. He may go to the front of the line.

But right now, I cannot say what the Magic could get for Vucevic. This is mostly because I am not sure what the Magic want.

Are they looking to package together some players to get a star like Kyrie Irving or a quasi-star like Eric Bledsoe? Are they looking to consolidate players to add some depth? Do they trust Speights to play backup center?

I do not have answers to those questions right now. So I would say with Vucevic the Magic will keep an open mind. But the plan is likely to have him in camp and treat him as the incumbent starting center.

We should have an article coming up talking more about Jonathan Isaac’s expectations and what kind of role he will play. So I do not want to step on too many toes with it.

But I think it is still hard to predict precisely what Isaac’s role will be with the Magic. This is mostly because we do not know what kind of player Isaac will be and what he can contribute his rookie year.

Coach Frank Vogel said during Isaac’s introductory press conference the team would likely ease Isaac into his role. The plan it seems is to give Isaac only what he can handle. So it is not likely the Magic are going to gift him a starter’s role or even a sixth man role.

Isaac, realistically, could end up playing a role very similar to what he played with the Florida State Seminoles last year. There, like with the Magic this year, he is probably going to see a role that is going to have him pick his spots offensively and focus on playing defense — rebounding and blocking shots, etc.

With the Seminoles last year, Isaac averaged 26.2 minutes per game — a little more than half the game. I would suspect he will average somewhere between 15 and 20 minutes per game. There is always the chance that increases.

But considering the Magic are likely to rely on their starters heavily for around 30 minutes per game, that does not leave much time for Isaac. About 15 minutes per game is probably a good place to start with Isaac. If he outperforms that, the Magic will find ways to get him more — one of those aforementioned logjams on the roster.

I am probably not the guy to ask about Mario Hezonja. I know there are still the Hezonja optimists, but I am not one of them.

His second season was beyond disappointing and it is tough to see him getting many opportunities to play with Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Arron Afflalo, Jonathon Simmons and Jonathan Isaac on the roster. Even Wesley Iwundu is going to push for minutes.

So Hezonja has his work cut out for him.

To start the year, I do not see Hezonja in the rotation. At least not if he is the player he was last year.

Yes, Hezonja showed some signs of life toward the end of the season. His defense got better. But it was still not quite at the level the team needs.

And Hezonja’s supposed NBA skill just absolutely betrayed him. It is hard to consider anyone as a “solid” 3-point shooter when he has a year worse than 30 percent. He just was not reliable from beyond the arc.

The first step to Hezonja getting playing time is to prove he is a good 3-point shooter again. And that is going to have to happen in practice. With him having that base, there begins the opportunity for him to carve out some role.

But he has to perform first. He is not going to get gifted a role. He may have to show his willingness to play by going down to the G-League and proving himself and taking that assignment seriously.

At this point, Hezonja is just not a usable player. Not based on what he did last year. It is hard to see him taking a role from the other players ahead of him on the depth chart.

I am not in the business of looking at specific deals. I try to avoid posting things that end up on the fake news/rumors sites (they exist, long before the political fake news craze).

And, as I noted earlier, it is hard to get a firm grasp on what the Magic could get for Vucevic. I just think the market is oversaturated with bigs.

On top of all that, I think it is very hard to get a sense of what the Magic are looking for in a trade — other than just a general upgrade in talent. Maybe Orlando is marshaling assets to go after a star or quasi-star at some point.

The problem with trading Vucevic — or Terrence Ross or Evan Fournier or anyone on the Magic roster — is their value is likely at an all-time low right now. The team is coming off that disappointing 29-win season and all the young players have lost a lot of their shine. It is hard to see any team clamoring to get in line to try to acquire any of them.

Vucevic’s contract becomes more attractive as it winds to its end. So his value should increase. Especially if he plays well. Everyone needs to play well to increase their value.

But what the Magic are after is not particularly clear. And if Orlando is going to find an upgrade, it will take several of the players they might be willing to play increasing their value.

Essentially, the Magic need to win and show some promise to get other teams interested in some of their players. Especially their long-term contracts in Evan Fournier, Bismack Biyombo and D.J. Augustin.

Biyombo is going to be the most difficult to move at the moment. He still has three years left on his deal at $17 million per year. That is tough to move to any team. Especially since he is coming off the bench. That is unless they are desperate for a starting center and really believe in Biyombo.

The reality is the Magic might be stuck with Biyombo for some time. And the greater reality is the Magic just need to win and restore some faith in their young players.

From Drew Chavez via Facebook

"Do you see [Aaron] Gordon, [Elfrid] Payton, or Mario [Hezonja] getting traded at the deadline if they don’t get off to a strong start this upcoming [season] and what kind of return do they bring back? Last question, well it’s an opinion and question in one. The moves the Magic made, it seems they are looking to make it to the worse place to be not good enough to compete and not bad enough to get a top pick. How do you think the Magic are handling this approach or am I looking at this wrong?"

I think it is possible the Magic look to shop Aaron Gordon or Elfrid Payton closer to the deadline if they struggle. Even if Payton plays well, I would imagine the Magic view him as a guy they can shop around to get a firm upgrade at point guard for the future.

For Gordon and Payton, their looming restricted free agency makes them really valuable trade chips. But neither are players the Magic are ready to give away. Orlando just has to have a good idea of how much they are willing to spend and a good sense of the market.

To my eye, Gordon is a safer bet for the team to keep no matter what. They might be willing to overspend on him next summer in free agency. It all depends on how he plays this year.

Payton is probably going to get to play out this year without much extension talk and prove he is the starting point guard for the future. He can do it if he plays like he did to end last season.

Hezonja, at this point, does not have much trade value. I do not think teams are willing to give up much of value for him.

Essentially, this is a prove it year for a lot of people — as I discussed on the last episode of the Orlando Magic Daily Podcast. These players have to prove their worth in the NBA because it is so unknown.

For the team overall, I disagree with the notion the Magic are tanking (I apologize if that sounds crass since the question was written before last week’s signings). I think their signing of Afflalo and Speights showed the team is trying to add veterans to bolster the bench and get the team over the top or at least into the Playoff conversation.

Their presence over signing younger options suggests the team is serious about winning.

But that concern the Magic are entering NBA Purgatory is a valid one. The team is probably not going to be bad enough to angle for a top pick — a game the team has played and failed for four of the last five years — but they may not be good enough to make the Playoffs.

I fall in the boat of winning. Winning is never bad. And the Magic making the Playoffs, even with this imperfect roster, would be a good thing. It would create the value the Magic need for trades. And the team can figure itself out from there.

From Mark Garry via Facebook

"While [Nikola] Vucevic & [Evan] Fournier aren’t All-Star caliber players, do you see one or both of them getting traded for a better defender at shooting guard or center???"

Definitely a lot of trade questions here. I sense a lot of Magic fans probably know what we all know: For the Magic to compete seriously, they will need to add an All Star somewhere. So I think that is where a lot of these comments are born from.

Yes, the Magic will at some point have to combine some of this depth and high-salary players to turn it into . . . someone. I still think Gordon can take the leap and flirt with stardom (it may be another two years, but a strong year this year would get him to earn that contract).

I have handled the Vucevic trade market pretty hard in this mailbag (feel free to go back and read that commentary). Fournier is a bit of a different animal.

Fournier is a productive player, so I do not think he is as untradeable or difficult to move as Biyombo. But he will be difficult to move. Some team will have to believe in him or be willing to take him on. And the Magic are not likely trading him unless they need his salary to match.

Essentially, Evan Fournier might be in the same situation Arron Afflalo was when he was traded in the Dwight Howard trade.

I am not sure who that player is right now. I do not think a trade market has developed quite yet. This is true for both Fournier and Vucevic.

I do not see the Magic seeking out center help in a trade, though. Orlando is going to have a tough time moving Biyombo and so the idea of trading Vucevic would be more to give Biyombo the starting job.

Of course, Orlando should be looking to improve the team’s roster and talent base in general. The Magic are not going to hold onto anyone just to hold onto them. If they can improve the roster and it makes sense for the team they are looking to build, they will take it.

But I do not think anything is imminent. And I think the market will develop much closer to the trade deadline. So save those trade questions for then!

From Zaymon via Comments

"1. Who will guard big small forwards in our starting lineup? 2. Can Frank Vogel adapt and use to his advantage the way NBA is playing now? (He was stuck in the past and now I worry he is only copying others) 3. Will our new front office change coach if he doesn’t show enough promise after next year? (He may not fit the core of the future) 4. The idea of Hezonja in the [G-League] insane?( any other way to help our passing and shooting with [Aaron] Gordon, [Elfrid] Payton without sacrificing defense and rebounding?) 5 Any chance that [Nikola] Vucevic can lose some weight and gain some mobility?"

I will try to answer all these questions in turn:

1. I think the issue of defending big small forwards was a huge problem with the starting lineup to end last season. Both Ross and Fournier are tweeners at the wing positions. They are not fast or quick enough to guard most 2s but not big or strong enough to guard 3s.

The only good thing about playing Gordon at small forward was that it relieved this problem. Gordon could guard any player on the perimeter. And I actually think it hurts the Magic defense some to play him at power forward without another switching small forward next to him.

That is where the Magic will need Isaac to grow up pretty quickly.

But, I do not think this is a concern for the Magic this year. Consider this a transition year. Orlando is going to let things play out and see how they work out. So if things are a bit imperfect, that is OK for now. Orlando is willing to see what works and what does not and move on from there.

2. That leads to the second question, which is a good one. Is Vogel’s defensive strategy outdated or was the problem the roster?

I think, like so many players on the roster, this is a year where Vogel has to prove his bona fides again too. He is not on the hot seat. I think he will get the full season this year (barring complete disaster). How warm his seat is next year is likely dependent on how this season goes.

But I anticipate there will be a bounce back. I think his defensive schemes still work.

Essentially what Vogel has always liked to do is switch a lot. And this roster is shaping up as one that can switch pretty freely. Vucevic had his best defensive season of his career last year, and so there is some suggestion he can continue to grow. Or at least be league average there.

The team is over-relying on defense again, but I think Vogel can get the most out of this group. Especially since it feels the roster is improved. The team’s struggles last year was more a problem of roster construction than Vogel’s coaching. But we will see.

Orlando Magic

4. I do not think it would be crazy to see Hezonja get some time with the Lakeland Magic. But my understanding is the team was afraid to do that last year with Erie. Having the team in Lakeland this year, I suspect it is possible for Hezonja and Isaac to spend some spot games there to get some playing time and build confidence before shuttling back to Orlando for practice or a game.

5. At this point, I think Vucevic is what he is. He is entering his prime as a player. And he is a solid player. His shortcomings are his shortcomings.

I think Rob Hennigan was right about one thing. By the end of your rookie contract, you are the player you are. There is not as much room for growth after that.

I think Vucevic can continue to improve some of his weaknesses on the margins. He can still become a better defender. But he will never be a rim protector or a center who can blow up pick and rolls. There will always be that flaw and weakness with his lateral quickness.

Yes. I absolutely love what the Magic did this offseason. In fact, I am still surprised they were able to do so much.

Simmons is a perfect example of everything that went right with the Magic this offseason.

First, Orlando needed to begin establishing a bit of an identity and find a player type that would define the kind of team Jeff Weltman wanted to build. Simmons is that guy. He is a hard-nosed defender with a chip on his shoulder. He can push teammates further with his relentless effort.

With Simmons, Isaac and Gordon, a clear identity is emerging and a player type exists. It is a good direction for the team overall — even though those three players all struggle to shoot.

Second, Orlando did not tie itself up with much long-term money. Simmons is on a three-year deal with the third year non-guaranteed. Shelvin Mack is on a two-year deal with the second year non-guaranteed. And Afflalo and Speights both signed on minimum deals. Those are all incredible values and keeps flexibility for the Magic to improve moving forward.

Which brings me to the final point. The Magic were extremely patient and got rewarded for it. They knew they did not have a lot of cash to spend in free agency. And they likely knew they were OK going into the season with the same basic starting lineup. So they were able to wait and get bargains.

Simmons on a three-year, $18-million is an absolute steal. I thought he would get $10 million per year easily. His restricted free agency scared off a lot of suitors and he was let go when the market had dried up.

Afflalo and Speights on minimum deals are huge boosts to a team that needs the experience they give.

Orlando may not be a Playoff team yet. But I love what the team did this summer. I think the moves they made set the Magic up for the long term and help the team achieve its long-term goals.

Next: Jeff Weltman's first summer with the Orlando Magic shows a bright future

Thanks everyone for the questions. You can always drop us a line on Twitter @omagicdaily and by e-mail at omagicdaily@gmail.com. You can also check us out on Facebook at Orlando Magic Daily. Until next time…