Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen is regarded as being the new Kristaps Porzingis. Yet concerns about his defense, rebounding, and interior offense may have teams thinking twice.
The modern NBA big man is a much different creature than that seen in previous decades. Gone are the slow, lumbering figures of the past who could barely pass the ball. And in their place is a new, more dynamic breed.
Nowadays, far more is expected big men. They must possess the lateral quickness to defend the pick-and-roll against some of the NBA’s most explosive guards, while still having the length and athleticism to protect the rim.
On the offensive end, the post game is something of a dying art. Now bigs have to be able to operate outside of the paint, setting good screens and sometimes even playing the role of playmaker.
But perhaps the biggest innovation has been the expectation big men should be able to stretch the floor, sometimes becoming consistent 3-point shooters.
The 2017 season saw the development of this latter trend in particular, with centers like Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol and DeMarcus Cousins expanding their range to beyond the 3-point line.
The modern big man has to be a far more dynamic and versatile player, able to play both on the inside and out.
Enter: Arizona Wildcats center Lauri Markkanen.
At Arizona, the Finnish big man displayed several of the qualities hitherto discussed. He is a deadly outside shooter with a quick release. And his ability to stretch the floor opens up driving lanes allowing him to get to the basket.
Looking at Markkanen’s game, it in some ways reflects the direction the modern NBA big man is heading.
But there are several holes in his game that prevent him from reaching the lofty requirements now expected of a starting-calibre big-man.
The key questions then, are what are Markkanen’s strengths and weaknesses, and is he worth a high lottery pick held by teams like the Orlando Magic?
The Good
What obviously stands out about Lauri Markkanen’s game is his ability to shoot the ball. Whether it be from mid-range or beyond the arc, Markkanen is a laser marksman, shooting an impressive 42.3 percent from deep in his sole year at Arizona.
Standing at 7-feet tall, Markkanen’s shot is what has led some to compare him to the New York Knicks’ Kristaps Porzingis. His one year with the Wildcats saw him put up 15.6 points per game on 49.2 percent shooting. This came with an effective field goal percentage of 58.4 percent and a true shooting percentage of 63.4 percent — good for fourth and fifth in the Pac-12 respectively.
He has good range on his shot, able to comfortably knock it down from the college 3-point line, and his tendency to lean back as he shoots — combined with his 7-foot height — make it near impossible to alter his shot from the perimeter. His shot has a quick and high release, making him ideal for the modern NBA.
An excellent spot-up shooter from the perimeter, Markkanen is also a competent shooter pulling up off the dribble. His ability to stretch the floor fits in perfectly with the profile of the modern NBA big.
Yet Markkanen can do more than just shoot the ball — with his aforementioned shooting dragging his defender outside of the paint. He has the ability to get past them with incredible agility for a big, easily getting to the basket against slower-footed power forwards and centers.
His ball-handling skills are also exceptional for a man his size, with Markkanen having a turnover rate of just 8.1 percent for the 2017 Pac-12 season.
His movement on the offensive end is also impressive off the ball, with the 20-year old having the ability to get himself open for a spot-up shot from deep or to drag his defender out and blow past him to the rim.
But Markkanen’s game is far from perfect, and there are a number of warning signs teams should take into account if they are thinking of drafting the Wildcat.
The Bad
For all of Lauri Markkanen’s shooting ability, there are a number of glaring holes in his game. If these could be summed up in four words, they would be – defense, rebounding and interior offense.
Markkanen’s biggest issues come on the defensive end of the floor, where he lacks the skills and physical tools to perform to the level expected of a modern NBA big.
Markkanen does not have the lateral quickness to defend the pick-and-roll, nor the defensive awareness to stick to his man after a successful pick. More than once at Arizona he found himself lost on pick-and-roll possessions, allowing the opposition to exploit him and get to the rim almost unchallenged.
Closer to the basket, he does not have the length or leaping ability needed to challenge opponents at the rim, averaging just 0.5 blocks in 30.8 minutes per game. This is exacerbated by his lack of physical strength, which sees opposing players easily go through him on their way to the rim.
These same issues — a lack of length and strength — plague him again in the post, where larger and stronger players constantly bully Markkanen. Even small-ball 4s found a way to score against Markkanen.
Markkanen’s lack of length is particularly evident here, where these much smaller players easily able to score hook shots over the 7-footer without much difficulty or resistance.
Orlando Magic
The 20-year old’s struggles on the defensive end are only amplified by his poor rebounding. Despite averaging a reasonable 7.2 rebounds in his 30.8 minutes per game, his rebounding rate stands at an abysmal 14.0 percent.
His struggles under the basket again haunt him here, as he lacks the leaping ability to contest on the boards, and the strength to box out his opponent, often being hopelessly outmatched beneath the basket.
If not, his lack of defensive awareness can even see him wander off his defensive assignment, leaving the latter open for an offensive rebound and an easy bucket.
Yet Markkanen’s struggles are not limited to the defensive end. For all of his ability to shoot the ball, if forced to take his game inside, he has little to offer.
He is awkward when in isolation, seemingly unsure of what to do, and often unable to generate a comfortable shot. In the post, he struggles to back down his opponent, and it is not uncommon for Markkanen to airball hook shots even when close-in to the basket.
But his biggest issue on the offensive end at the moment is his predictability. He is seemingly unwi ing, and unable to drive right. Defenses are prepared for him to drive left, allowing them to close down his offensive maneuver before he can get in a position to shoot.
Markkanen only being able to drive left can often thus take him out of the game, or leave him solely as a spot-up shooter.
Despite being a half-decent player in the pick-and-roll, Pac-12 opponents soon found his weakness. As seen in Mike Schmitz’s video for DraftExpress.com (see above), opponents would simply leave the point guard on him after the pick had been set, and he would be unable to score on even these when near the basket.
His lack of an interior game would not be so bad if he demonstrated an ability to act as a big-man playmaker. But the Wildcat averaged only 0.9 assists per game. Despite a lower turnover rate, he showed a low IQ when passing the ball.
Markkanen has a long way to go before becoming an NBA-ready big-man passer in the vein of Joakim Noah, or even Orlando’s own Nikola Vucevic.
Draft Sites Say
Mike Schmitz & Matt Kamalsky, Draft Express
"Markkanen’s intrigue as a prospect isn’t difficult to see on first glance. Looking every bit of his listed 7’0-230 pounds, he has great size for a power forward. A fluid, coordinated athlete who lacks a degree of explosiveness, length, and physical strength, despite his improved, muscular frame, the 19 year old forward will need to continue to get stronger, but has a nice mix of tools to complement his advanced skill set his on the offensive end."
Cole Zwicker, The Step Back
"Basically, projecting Markkanen’s NBA impact comes down to this — how can his considerable offensive skills be maximized to obtain full utility, mitigating the negatives on defense? He will need to be placed in a system surrounded by elite perimeter defenders to wall off penetration and keep offensive players away from the rim he can’t protect. He will also probably need to play the 5 a good amount to fully extract his shooting and agility with the ball attacking closeouts. It’s by no means an easy fit, but if a team can place him in a suitable situation there is obvious utility here, and perhaps considerable upside."
Stefanos Makris, NBADraft.net
"Markkanen is a player to keep an eye on. At first glance he looks like a prototypical Stretch-4, but he can become a lot more than just that. His ability to score from just about everywhere on the floor is what makes him special, but he has all the necessary tools to become a two-way player. With that said, he still has long ways to go in many aspects of the game, especially on Defense, but if he continues working hard he can become a very good player in the future. Likely will need some adjustment time to playing against American athletes"
Final Word
There are many attractive qualities about Lauri Markkanen’s play. His sweet-looking stroke and his laser-accurate shot would already make him one of the NBA’s elite big-man shooters. His ability to stretch the floor from the 4 or 5 spot would do wonders for teams such as the Orlando Magic.
Yet, there are simply too many downsides for a team like the Magic to risk a high pick on him. He is slow-footed on defense, can neither guard the pick-and-roll nor protect the rim. And he is easily taken apart on the defensive end by both small-ball power forwards and big-man centers alike.
A lack of rebounding, and any semblance of an interior game severely limit Markkanen’s NBA potential — and taken with his defensive struggles, there is a lot to be concerned about.
Another concern is what position the 7-footer could play once in the NBA. He struggles to keep up with small-ball 4s due to his lack of agility on the defensive end. Yet he also lacks the strength, length and physical tools to adequately guard centers.
There are many concerns about Lauri Markkanen heading into the NBA Draft. He is a poor defender and rebounder, whose offensive game is largely limited to his shooting.
Next: 2017 Orlando Magic Draft Preview: Who is Ike Anigbogu?
That said, although he is by no means the next Kristaps Porzingis, if he is used and developed correctly, he could easily be one of the best big-man shooters of his generation.