California Golden Bears center Ivan Rabb returned to school to build off an intriguing first year. He stagnated and now he has to find his potential again.
There is a player every year who seemingly made the wrong decision to go back to school. The high-profile prospect who had a lot of draft buzz about him and thought going back to school could help increase his draft stock.
It almost never does.
Inevitably a player fails to live up to outsized expectations. Stagnant production is viewed not as consistency but as degradation. The player is not as good as everyone thought. A new crop of players delight the eye and steal the narrative. Sometimes the draft class a player waits for is stronger — a second overall pick in one draft may very well fall to 10 the next.
California Golden Bears forward Ivan Rabb was not a runaway prospect in the 2016 Draft. Before returning to Cal, Rabb was viewed as a lottery pick. The 6-foot-11 forward showed plenty of potential, nearly averaging a double-double as a freshman. He could work well around the basket and score in the post. He is a traditional center.
Heading back to school, where third overall pick Jaylen Brown had left for the NBA, Rabb had the chance to be the team’s leader and improve his game.
The results were better, but not noteworthy. Especially not for a player entering this loaded draft class.
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Rabb averaged 14.0 points and 10.5 rebounds per game last year in Berkeley. Those numbers are OK. In fact, averaging a double-double is nothing to look past in college. In a 40-minute game, that is not an easy thing to do.
But per 40 minutes, his numbers were relatively flat — 17.5 points per 40 minutes and 11.9 rebounds per 40 minutes as a freshman compared to 17.2 points per 40 minutes and 12.8 rebounds per 40 minutes last year as a sophomore. Rabb largely failed to take that big step forward in his play.
That does not mean Rabb is not a capable player, one who promises to excite a team later in the first round or in the late teens in this Draft.
Rabb has a lot of skills NBA teams will like as a mix between a new-age, undersized center and a traditional power forward. What you see may be what you get with him. But what you get is not bad at all.
The Good
Ivan Rabb has good size for a center and good mobility for one too. At 6-foot-11, 220 pounds, Rabb is surprisingly lithe and quick on his feet, while maintaining some power around the basket.
Only 17 players in the entire nation averaged a double-double this season in the NCAA. And just five came from major conferences. He was certainly helped by the increased pace in the Pac-12 in getting to 14.0 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. But still, it is a strong indicator of what he can do.
Rebounding is typically a skill that translates to the NBA. And Rabb is a solid rebounder. It is not just his raw numbers. Rabb posted an 18.3 percent total rebound rate and grabbed 25.7 percent of all available defensive rebounds.
Those are not earth-shattering numbers. He is not like Kenneth Faried — he posted a 25.6 percent total rebound rate in his junior year — who just gobbled up rebounds. But Rabb’s numbers are solid.
Rabb looks at home in the paint. He uses his size well to push (legally!) players out of the way to get to the glass. His finishes can be a bit clunky, but he can score around the basket effectively.
Where Rabb really grew his sophomore year was with his jumper. He is comfortable stepping out to 15 feet along the baseline or to the elbow and the top of the key and burying a jumper on a pick and roll. His length and athleticism force defenses to respect his driving ability, especially among slower centers.
He shows promise that he can extend to the 3-point line. He made 8 of 20 3-pointers last year for California.
There is a lot of ingredients for a solid player within Rabb.
The Bad
The lack of progression with Rabb is concerning. He did not seem to take a huge leap. And his game does look a bit clunky at times.
Rabb is not a strong low post scorer. A lot of his scoring came off offensive rebounds — 3.0 offensive boards per game — or off passes and pick and rolls from other players. No one is going to ask Rabb to work on the low block.
While his 3-point shooting at the college level last year, in particular, were encouraging, there are also indications that will not extend to the NBA.
He was a 66.3 percent free throw shooter last year. Free throw shooting is a greater indicator of shooting success translating to the longer NBA line. Rabb’s free throw shooting suggests he will not make this adjustment.
The question with Rabb is one of just that — translation. Which one of his skills will translate to the NBA?
The rebounding is the greatest skill he has to bring to the NBA. Against some of his peers, Rabb showed the ability to translate. He grabbed 20 rebounds in a game against T.J. Leaf and Ike Anigbogu of the UCLA Bruins in early January. Both Leaf and Anigbogu are likely first round picks too.
Rabb gobbled up rebounds throughout the conference season and his entire sophomore year. That is his big NBA skill at the moment.
But as noted, his rebounding is not otherworldly. His athleticism and length advantages he enjoyed in college will dissipate in the NBA.
At the NBA Combine, he measured out with a 7-foot-1.5 wingspan. That was in the middle of the pack among centers at the combine.
That lack of length is going to hurt him at the NBA level where big men usually are required to change shots at the rim.
In college, Rabb blocked just 1.0 shot per game. That does not speak to how many shots he changed throughout the course of his career, but it is not a good sign of the impact he can make on the defensive end.
Rabb is still a bundle of potential. But the problem with bundles of potential is eventually they become kinetic energy. And if that energy does not move forward, that potential is wasted.
Rabb did not progress himself much in a sophomore year that was meant to show how much he had grown. Thus he has slipped on draft boards.
Draft Sites Say
Josh Riddell & Julian Applebome, DraftExpress
"Rabb hasn’t made the type of strides in his game scouts were hoping for, and finished the year on a disappointing note, with Cal losing in the first round of the NIT (a game he sat out with a foot injury). His sophomore season averages were similar to his freshman season as he averaged 17.1 points and 12.8 rebounds per 40 minutes. His efficiency decreased with an increase in his usage rate from a 65% true shooting percentage on a 20% usage rate as a freshman to a very poor 55% true shooting percentage on a 24% usage rate this season."
NBADraft.net
"There is plenty to like about Raab as a NBA prospect starting with his physical profile … He is a mobile big man with good size at 6’10” with a 7’2” wingspan and 9’1” standing reach, and he is light on his feet … Out of the pick and roll, he shows great agility as a roll man, and he can catch and finish lob passes in space. . . . Rabb is more of an old school post player and does not have ideal perimeter skills that NBA teams look for in a modern NBA big man … He does not space the floor with great consistency and shoots a flat ball at times … He will need to become more of a threat off the pick and pop to be a truly reliable offensive weapon in the league, and he must continue to improve as a free throw shooter (66%)."
J.Z. Mazlish, The Step Back
"Rabb has a baseline combination of size, skill, and athleticism that makes him very appealing. His standout strength is his comfort operating with the ball in and around the lane. He has great hands, natural footwork and bodily coordination to navigate around defenders, and a really soft touch around the rim. Given this combination, he is very adept at scoring in post-up situations or any touch near the basket. His instinctual feel for scoring is on display here as he patiently works his way out of a double team before attacking the basket and using a smooth fake-spin to create space for his shot."
Final Word
Ivan Rabb is certainly a very talented player. He has a knack for hitting the glass and rebounding. That is a skill that typically translates to the NBA from the college game. That will serve him well as he takes this big step into the NBA.
He has a knack for hitting the glass and rebounding. That is a skill that typically translates to the NBA from the college game. That will serve him well as he takes this big step into the NBA.
Rabb has a lot of skill around the basket that will make him useful. If he can accept his role as a bit of a scavenger, digging out rebounds and cleaning up putbacks.
Otherwise, Rabb has a lot of work to do to turn himself into a quality player in the NBA.
His lack of length and athleticism is going to hurt him as the quality of player he goes up against increases. Without a solid post game, Rabb’s game will rely almost wholly on attacking the glass. And there, with his slight frame, it is unclear whether he can bang around.
Rabb has a developing jumper too. It is unclear how involved he could be in the pick-and-roll game and how much more room he has to grow that jumper with his poor free throw shooting. It shows plenty of promise. But it is not NBA ready. Rabb will need some time to grow. That was what his sophomore year was supposed to provide.
It is just unclear how much of his game will translate.
And that is the story for Rabb. What will translate for him?
He showed a ton of promise his freshman year and seemed set to continue to grow as he decided to head back to California. Instead, his production stagnated. He did not seem to take his game to the next level.
That raises only questions in this futures game called the NBA Draft.
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Ivan Rabb can still grow. He has one skill that should help him translate to the NBA in some way. But he will have to work hard to prove that will help him stick in this league.