The Orlando Magic came out of the NBA Draft Lottery with the sixth overall pick. Not ideal for a rebuilding team. But it still provides historic opportunity
Things did not go to plan for the Orlando Magic at last week’s NBA Draft Lottery. The franchise began the night hoping to move up in the order, but ended it with the sixth overall pick.
Deserted by the luck that saw the club land the number one overall pick in 1992, 1993 and 2004, Magic fans were left with little choice but to embrace the fact that this is one of the deepest draft classes in recent years.
Most big boards have Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball going first and second respectively. But beyond that, the Draft itself is, well, a lottery. Good players can be found anywhere.
The Magic’s chances of landing the kind of franchise-changing player this rebuild so desperately needs may have taken a bit of a hit, but it is now up to new appointments Jeff Weltman and John Hammond (who, it is worth noting, was part of the team that drafted Giannis Antetokounmpo 15th overall in 2013) to work with what they have to find the best player they possibly can.
In this draft, especially, it seems there are some very good players the Magic could pursue. From Dennis Smith to Jayson Tatum to De’Aaron Fox to Malik Monk to Jonathan Isaac, there are quality young players who have star potential within them. The Magic should still get a very good player with the sixth overall pick.
Thankfully a quick look at the last six players drafted sixth overall reveals that there is often plenty of talent to be had at that spot.
2011 -– Jan Vesely (Washington Wizards)
Admittedly Jan Vesely’s presence on this list is hardly going to reassure anyone. His NBA career was a bust.
Taken sixth overall by the Washington Wizards in 2011, Vesely was nothing short of a NBAbust. He now plays for Fenerbahce in the Turkish Basketball Super League and the EuroLeague, where he is experiencing a bit of a basketball revival. Some guys are not cut for the NBA.
In three seasons with the Wizards, he made just 141 appearances, averaging 3.5 points and 3.4 rebounds per game in 15.2 minutes per game before getting traded to the Denver Nuggets. Things did not get much better in the Mile High City either, as Vesely made just 21 appearances there before falling off the NBA map at the end of the 2014 season.
Still, what is reassuring is that in taking Vesely sixth overall, the Wizards missed out on Kemba Walker (who went ninth overall), Klay Thompson (11th), Kawhi Leonard (15th) and Jimmy Butler (30th).
All four of these players have subsequently gone on to become franchise cornerstones for their respective teams, having come out of what was perhaps the last draft class to truly offer the kind of depth this one has.
Proof if any were needed that you do not always need a top three pick to snag a game-changer. There is plenty of opportunity at pick No. 6.
2012 –- Damian Lillard (Portland Trail Blazers)
Of all the players taken sixth overall in the past six years, Damian Lillard is perhaps the most likely to achieve superstar status.
Taken sixth overall in 2012, he has gone on to have a stellar career thus far with the Portland Trail Blazers, averaging 22.4 points, 4.0 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game in five seasons. On top of that, he has made two All-Star and two All-NBA appearances to date.
Lillard came out of what hindsight has enabled us to realize was actually a pretty deep draft class. Lillard was arguably the third strongest player behind Anthony Davis (taken first overall) and Draymond Green (35th overall).
Playing alongside the likes of veterans LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews, Lillard proved himself NBA-ready off the bat, helping his veteran team to 54 wins in 2014 and 51 wins in 2015. Before Aldridge decided to start a new chapter with the San Antonio Spurs.
Now part of one of the league’s most exciting backcourts (which also features C.J. McCollum), Lillard officially has the keys to the car and an opportunity to prove the teams that opted to go elsewhere with picks two through five in 2012 how wrong they were to do so (the Sacramento Kings are probably regretting picking Thomas Robinson fifth overall nowadays).
He does not quite have the players around him to put the put the Blazers back in contention just yet, but surely it is only a matter of time before he does.
2013 -– Nerlens Noel (New Orleans Pelicans)
Things have not really gone to plan for Nerlens Noel since he was projected to go first overall out of the Kentucky Wildcats in 2013.
After tearing the ACL in his left knee in February of that year, he soon started slipping down mock drafts the world over and was eventually taken sixth overall by the New Orleans Pelicans. His rights were then swiftly traded to the ailing Philadelphia 76ers. But he missed the entire 2014 campaign while recovering from knee surgery.
Noel eventually made his NBA debut in October 2014. He then averaged 10.2 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game in 28.3 minutes per game in the course of his 171-game period in Philly.
Inspired in part by his injury woes and, more significantly perhaps, by his frustration at being part of a crowded front court that also featured superstar-in-the-making Joel Embid and former number two overall pick Jahlil Okafor, Noel was traded to the Dallas Mavericks at the deadline this year.
He subsequently averaged 8.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game in limited minutes (22 per game) as the Mavericks wound down their less-than-successful season.
Thanks to his defensive talents, Noel still has plenty of upside. He could be an excellent fit alongside Mark Cuban’s big free agent signing from last summer, Harrison Barnes.
Put simply, Noel could go on to have a great career. Although it seems unlikely that any of the teams that passed on him with picks 1-5 (the Magic included) will ever regret doing so given his ongoing health concerns.
2014 –- Marcus Smart (Boston Celtics)
Of all the players on this list, Marcus Smart is the only one currently having an impact deep into the Playoffs.
Taken sixth overall by the Boston Celtics in 2014, Smart has averaged 9.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.5 steals per game while playing 28.4 minutes per game the past three seasons
In a lot of ways, he typifies the type of player commonly taken at this stage in the draft: a solid role player who has the potential to be very good, but whose contribution often gets lost in the box score. The Magic were keenly focused on taking him before he withdrew his name from the 2013 Draft and then again in the 2014 Draft.
That said, Smart had the game of his life on Sunday, logging a career-high 27 points, five rebounds and seven assists, while shooting 8 of 14 from the field and 7 of 10 from deep against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
This is significant not just because Smart stepped up in the absence of the injured Isaiah Thomas. But largely because he shot the ball so well – something a lot of teams felt he would never do when assessing him ahead of the 2014 Draft.
There is no reason to think Smart is about to become a superstar anytime soon. But if a team’s role players are able to produce performances like this, especially inhigh-pressuree scenarios like the Eastern Conference Finals, then it bodes extremely well for them.
Quite how his career will pan out given all the options Boston currently has is anyone’s guess. But Smart is currently looking like a very smart pick-up, one the Utah Jazz (who took Dante Exum with the fifth overall pick in 2014) may well regret overlooking.
2015 –- Willie Cauley-Stein (Sacramento Kings)
Willie Cauley-Stein was an odd choice for the Sacramento Kings in 2015.
He was far from a bad option coming out of Kentucky, he just seemed like a bad fit on a roster already dominated by All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins.
Still, the Kings managed to find him 21.4 minutes per game during his rookie campaign, resulting in 7.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.0 block per game in 66 appearances. These numbers altered marginally in his sophomore season, as his points total increased to 8.1 per game, while his rebounds and blocks fell to 4.5 and 0.6 per game respectively.
The trouble is that Cauley-Stein’s raw talent is the kind that takes time to develop. And with an eager-to-compete Cousins on the roster, that is something Sacramento never really had.
Still, post-Cousins the Kings are looking to retool and can probably start shifting some of the veteran pieces on their roster to build around the likes of Cauley-Stein, Buddy Hield and whoever they take with the 10th overall pick this year.
Cauley-Stein shined post-Cousins, averaging 12.9 points and 8.2 rebounds per game in a little more than 30 minutes per game after the All-Star Break. It looked like Cauley-Stein was ready to break through and become a solid contributor.
That said, Sacramento is hardly known for drafting well. And the powers that be there are likely still kicking themselves for passing on, say, Devin Booker, who would have been a more interesting fit alongside Cousins and may even have given him the confidence to stick around.
2016 –- Buddy Hield (New Orleans Pelicans)
Beyond Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram, the 2016 NBA Draft was a tough one to call.
Almost a year since, it is still difficult to decide who exactly from that group has the ability to be great. Jaylen Brown, who was taken third overall by the Boston Celtics, looks to have a great future. While Thon Maker, taken 10th overall by the Milwaukee Bucks, looks like a high-upside big man.
If you ask Sacramento Kings owner Vivek Ranadive though, Buddy Hield, drafted sixth overall by the New Orleans Pelicans, is head and shoulders above everyone else.
In fact, Ranadive feels Hield is the best thing since sliced bread. And even likened him to reigning MVP Steph Curry when the Kings traded DeMarcus Cousins for him back in February.
Ludicrous comparisons aside, Hield does have plenty of upside. He averaged 10.6 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists his rookie year. He shoots the ball fairly well (43 percent from the field and 39 percent from deep). And actually took a big step forward during the 25 appearances he made for Sacramento. He averaged 15.1 points per game and his effective field goal percentage shot up to 52.5 percent (including 42.8 percent from beyond the arc).
The problem is that he is no Steph Curry, and probably never will be.
The other problem is Sacramento gave up its franchise player for a middle-of-the-road rookie, Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway, a first-round pick (the 11th pick) and a second-round pick.
Hield has the potential to be an important part of Sacramento’s rebuild. But he is unlikely to be the main piece. Still, of all the players on this list, he has had the least time to prove himself and it will interesting to see if he can take a big leap next season.
The Value of the Sixth Pick
In short, the sixth overall pick yields mixed results.
If you are lucky, it may land you a Damian Lillard. If you are not so lucky it may land you a Jan Vesely. But overall, in recent history, it seems to guarantee at least a solid NBA contributor. There is no guarantee it lands a team a star.
The problem is that most drafts only ever offer up one or two players who even come close to be sure things. And even they sometimes fail to live up to expectations.
Still, general manager John Hammond has a good record (Darko Milicic aside) and should hopefully have a fair read of the playing field given that he was, until very recently, scoping it out on behalf of the Milwaukee Bucks.
President of basketball operations Jeff Weltman should have a good eye too. His drafting record with Masai Ujiri and the Toronto Raptors was solid, drafting mostly at the end of the first round during their Playoff runs.
While the chances of the Magic landing their very own version of the Greek Freak are slim, the team should be able to transform the sixth overall pick into a piece talented enough to get this rebuild back on track.