In the aftermath of an underwhelming NBA Draft Lottery, the Orlando Magic need to make the most out of free agency one step at a time, making low-risk signings.
The Orlando Magic will pick sixth in the NBA Draft next month. That is not a bad place to be. But falling outside of the top five, the organization should not expect a home run.
Orlando also does not have a ton of cap space. They will have a reasonable amount of flexibility, but only Jodie Meeks and Jeff Green are becoming unrestricted free agents. Per Spotrac, the Magic will have around $35 million in space under the league’s luxury tax, and if they renounce the cap holds of Jeff Green, Jodie Meeks, Damjan Rudez, Marcus Georges-Hunt and Patricio Garino (which seems likely), they will have around $15 million in cap max space.
Again, not a ton of space, but reasonable flexibility.
It is enough to warrant approaching this offseason with caution. Chances are, ownership will not want to go too far into the tax unless a major opportunity presents itself. Nor should they.
In the draft and free agency, the Magic need to hit singles and doubles that add up to a winning formula instead of swinging for the fences. Acquire talent, try to build a winning formula, but do not invest too heavily in a roster just yet.
The Magic likely will not enter next season with any big-time names like Chris Paul or Markelle Fultz. The path for them requires patience and prudence — making good deals that will put the franchise in a solid position in the long run.
Depending on who they draft, they will likely need shooting help, a stable point guard option and cutters. An ideal free agency candidate for the Magic should be a player that can defend opposing power forwards while playing the perimeter on offense – complementing Aaron Gordon’s strengths and covering for his weaknesses.
Here are a few realistic names that could fill one or more of these roles.
Deron Williams
Deron Williams is past his prime. It is no secret. But as he is showing with the Cleveland Cavaliers, he can contribute valuable point guard minutes to a winning team.
The Magic might draft a point guard next month, which could render Williams superfluous. If they do not, he would be a great option to share minutes with Elfrid Payton.
It does not matter which one of them starts – that might depend on how the Magic view Elfrid Payton at this point. All that matters is that his shooting would give the team something Payton cannot. And his playmaking something they lacked last season with Payton on the bench.
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In some ways, Williams would fill the role the Magic signed D.J. Augustin to fill last year. D.J. Augustin simply did not have it. His shooting was subpar and the offense stagnated with him handling the ball. In retrospect, signing him for four years probably wasn’t the best idea.
The Magic would be wise to learn from that mistake and get Williams on a shorter deal. That might not be what the veteran point guard is looking for, but at 32 years old and a far cry from the player he was five years ago, there might not be many other teams willing to sign him long-term.
Having two declining veteran point guards on the books for the next three or four years is everything the Magic should avoid. But, in the short term, Williams can fill a valuable role next season as the jury remains out on Payton.
The Magic need to be cautious about what kind of deal they sign with him, if they do pursue him.
Whether the Magic do or do not believe in Payton, they at least need a decent backup. But, if they feel there is not a good enough option left in the draft, signing Williams for a year might be a good fallback.
Tony Snell
The Chicago Bulls traded Tony Snell to the Milwaukee Bucks for Michael Carter-Williams right before the start of the 2017 season. While the Bulls received a struggling, non-shooting reserve point guard, the Bucks got a solid three-point shooter, cutter and decent defender to complement their breakout star in Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Last year, Snell shot 40 percent from three. He is not a lockdown defender, but he also is not a liability. According to NBA Stats, he fell in the 79th percentile in scoring efficiency on cuts, putting him near the top of the league.
If the Magic want to build off the progress they made on offense at the end of last season, Snell would be a solid fit. He can play multiple positions – primarily small forward and shooting guard, but he has also played a few minutes at the point and power forward – and stretch the floor from any of them.
He is good at moving off the ball, so if the Magic draft or sign another primary ball handler he should still fit in nicely. Not only was he highly efficient on cuts, but he also shot around 42 percent coming off screens for jump shots – better than J.J. Redick, Damian Lillard and many other sharpshooters.
His skills would make him a great fit in lineups that feature Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross, and either Elfrid Payton or a new point guard the Magic might bring in. Snell and Terrence Ross’ spacing would complement Gordon’s cutting, and all their cutting and off-ball motion could take advantage of Nikola Vucevic and Payton’s playmaking skills.
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Adding another shooting wing like Snell would provide spacing for Payton and Gordon to work. He fits the profile of what the Magic need to maximize its young talent.
Snell is only 25 so he could be a legitimate long-term piece for the Magic. Although he probably will not make any major leaps, his best years are likely still ahead of him. He is a restricted free agent, but if the Bucks are looking to maintain flexibility, they may balk if Orlando offers him more than a couple years.
And Magic general manager John Hammond certainly is familiar with him now.
Snell is not a big name, but he is the type of complementary piece who could make the Magic’s offense run more smoothly next year. He is young and has no major injury concerns, so signing him is within reach and offers little downside.
P.J. Tucker
P.J. Tucker was a gamechanger for the Toronto Raptors despite a disappointing end to the team’s playoff run.
His hustle, size, defense and shooting gave the Raptors an added dimension they thought could threaten LeBron James’ Cleveland Cavaliers. They fell short, but Tucker still had a great season.
Tucker fits the bill of the ideal Aaron Gordon complement. He can guard all types of opposing 4s while spacing the floor on offense, allowing Gordon to lock down opposing wings and play close to and above the rim on offense.
He proved during his time with the Phoenix Suns he does not need to be in the playoffs or close to a championship to play hard every single night. That kind of attitude and would go a long way in the young Magic locker room. Pardon the cliché, but his veteran leadership would also be more than welcome.
A lot of what he does on the court does not show up in a box score. Battling for loose balls, playing physical defense, pumping up his teammates and getting into opponents’ heads are part of his identity. He is the type of player who can go 0 for 6 from three but still swing a game in his team’s favor.
Toronto would probably like to keep him, but their moment of reckoning has come this offseason. They seem inclined to resign Serge Ibaka, but Kyle Lowry will also be looking for a major payday. They could end up with limited cap flexibility, unable or disinclined to match an offer for Tucker and forced to allow him to fall into another suitor’s lap.
Tucker will turn 33 at the end of next season. Ideally, the Magic should seek a short deal so they can remain flexible heading into the next couple of offseasons and not have to worry about paying him when he inevitably starts to decline.
Michael Beasley
The Miami Heat did not get what they expected when they drafted Michael Beasley ahead of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love in the 2008 NBA Draft. He struggled both on the court and off the court, eventually landing in China with the Shandong Golden Stars for the 2016 season.
He signed with the Houston Rockets in March of last year, then he was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks for the 2017 season.
Although the days hoping he could blossom into a star are long gone, he had a solid 2017 campaign. He shot nearly 42 percent on threes (albeit with a low attempt rate – just 0.8 attempts per game) and was highly efficient scoring on cuts, using his size to bully opposing threes and quickness to elude other power forwards.
In that way, his ability to create matchup issues for opponents is not all that different from Aaron Gordon. What makes Beasley different, besides his lack of gravity-defying moves above the rim, is his shooting ability. On spot-ups last year, he shot better than 50 percent with an effective field goal percentage close to 60 percent.
No offense should put the ball in his hands and expect regular productivity. But put him in a corner and allow him to move off the ball and your other players will have more space to work while he finds his way to efficient shots.
He is a mediocre defender, but this past season he proved he can offer consistent offensive contributions. For the relatively small contract he will probably attract, he might be worth the risk for the Magic.
Questions about his attitude, work ethic and off-court behavior will follow him for the rest of his career, even though he has not been involved in any major incidents in a while. That is something the Magic should keep in mind if they consider signing him. And again, his experience with the Bucks last year has a first-hand defender in Hammond.
On the court Beasley could be a valuable bench contributor.
Jonathon Simmons
After paying $150 to try out for the D-League, Jonathon Simmons found himself playing a key role for the San Antonio Spurs in the 2017 Western Conference Finals. His story, skills and explosive performances have a lot of people riding the Simmons hype train.
And it is well deserved.
Players who come up through the Spurs’ system are known for their character and work ethic. Simmons seems to be cut from that same cloth.
He is a high-octane, disruptive defender. He is a solid shooter, and he is great at attacking the rim. Simmons can handle the ball on a bench unit, or he can play with starters off the ball. In transition, he is elite on both ends of the court.
For a second-year reserve forward who received little recognition entering this season, he has shown incredible promise.
It is important not to get carried away, though. He will be 28 next season. He probably does not have all that much upside – what we have seen is what we will get for the next couple years. And that is fine.
Simmons has proven he can offer valuable contributions to one of the best teams in the league. Teams will be lining up at his door during free agency, and rightfully so. But the perception that he is a young player or that his best years are ahead of him simply because he is new to the league might put suitors in dangerous territory.
A team like the Brooklyn Nets, with no first-round picks this year or next, and little hope in general, will probably offer him a big payday. Last year they offered Tyler Johnson four years and $50 million – far beyond what many would have expected his market value to be.
Simmons fits a similar bill as Johnson: a young(ish), exciting, hustle player whom the Nets could snatch up for a few years while they keep losing. They will not get anyone like that out of the draft (because they do not have picks) and they will not attract many marquee free agents. That cap space might as well go somewhere if they’re going to lose anyways.
The Nets’ bidding on mid and low-tier free agents has driven and will drive up the market value of Simmons and others of his ilk.
It is exciting to see this kind of performance from a second-year player, but it is important to remember he is almost 30 years old. He might not have as much upside as people think, and the Nets could make bidding for his services a risky proposition.
Because Simmons is a restricted free agent who has only been in the league for two years, he will be subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision. That means the first two seasons of an offer sheet made by a suitor cannot exceed the mid-level exception. But the third and fourth years can be heavily backloaded.
Essentially this means to sign Simmons, the Magic would get him for cheap for two seasons but might have to break the bank for his age 31 and 32 seasons, when his athleticism will begin to decline.
Money aside, his athleticism, attitude and variety of skills would make him a great fit for almost any team. The only catch is that signing him could end up being riskier than anticipated.
Honorable Mentions
To round out this preview, here are some other names that might be of interest.
Tyler Ennis and Shelvin Mack — bench point guards for the Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz, respectively – could be worth a tiny gamble if the Magic miss on other point guard targets in the draft and free agency. Both are relatively young, both have offered limited contributions and both have room to improve. Neither are ready to start, but if Elfrid Payton is the starter going forward, that is okay.
The Detroit Pistons’ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is your quintessential 3-and-D 2-guard. He can handle the ball a bit, too, making him a potential fit for the Magic and plenty of other teams. But the Nets will probably offer him a max contract, which Orlando will not be able to offer with thier current cap room. While they do need to continue acquiring talent, maintaining flexibility is just as important.
For that same reason, New Orleans Pelicans’ point guard Jrue Holiday and the Toronto Raptors’ Kyle Lowry are probably also off the table.
The Spurs’ Patty Mills also would be a great fit. He is a point guard who can start or come off the bench, play off the ball, shoot, cut and energize. But if Tony Parker’s injury is indeed career-ending, San Antonio will do everything in its power to retain Mills. He might end up out of reach for most other teams, but it depends on how the Spurs approach their offseason.
J.J. Redick, shooting guard for the LA Clippers, would add a new dimension to the Magic offense if he wanted to return to Orlando. He is great at moving off the ball to get good looks at threes and mid-range jumpers. He is also an underrated defender.
But again, he might not be worth the money for the Magic. There is no sense in investing a considerable amount of cap room into players who do not move the needle. Redick’s reputation will likely earn him a solid payday elsewhere.
Otto Porter had a breakout year for the Washington Wizards, evolving into one of the best 3-point shooters in the NBA. He deserves credit, but so does John Wall for finding him for great looks and Marcin Gortat for setting the best screens in the league.
Because he is not as great at creating for himself as he is spotting up, Porter might not fare as well elsewhere.
And, because he is a restricted free agent, the Wizards will have a leg up on signing him. He is sure to attract a lot of interest around the league and may end up too costly for a Magic team that should not overinvest in a subpar roster.
At the end of the day, the Magic probably will seek low-risk, moderate-reward signings — as they should.
Next: Jeff Weltman's first task with Orlando Magic is rebuilding their culture
Last season proved there is no sense in cashing in all the organization’s chips on a roster whose ceiling is a 7 or 8 seed. The next few years should be characterized by patience and prudence in the process of building towards a serious contender.