The NBA Draft raises a lot of questions for the Orlando Magic who are in need of stability. Here are a few scenarios the Magic will face with a top 3 pick.
We are now days away from the NBA Draft Lottery and the Orlando Magic have a lot more questions than answers right now.
Unfortunately, this is something Magic fans have gotten used to in the past five seasons. The only thing that has seemed to be consistent since former general manager Rob Hennigan dealt Dwight Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers is instability.
The Magic have had four head coaches in five years and no imminent franchise player. They now seem weeks away from naming a new head of their basketball operations and moving in a new direction.
But, with the lottery coming up Tuesday, there is a reason for hope in a draft class arguably as loaded as the 2003 Draft.
Each draft position in the lottery raises a different question for the Magic. So while the Magic are still waiting to see where their pick lands, they have to be planning for every eventuality. There are a number of ways the Magic can go. And even if the team does not draft in the top three, there are several good players the Magic could select.
With the Lottery quickly approaching, let us take a look at some of those questions and scenarios and the things the Magic should consider when analyzing each prospect if they find themselves with a top three pick.
Scenario: The Magic land the #1 overall pick (8.8% chance of getting #1 pick)
Magic should draft: Markelle Fultz, PG/Washington
Why Markelle Fultz?
The most obvious answer is Fultz is the best player in the draft. Fultz has shown he has the ability to carry the scoring workload.
The NBA point guard has evolved to become a more athletic and to have a scorer’s mentality player. Fultz fits that mold and could lead the Magic into the NBA of the future.
Fultz can also shoot the three (41 percent 3-point percentage with the Washington Huskies) which will allow the Magic to spread the floor. Additionally, Fultz’s ability to create his own shot would give the Magic someone to lean on late in games when they need a bucket.
Does this mean the Magic move on from Elfrid Payton?
Not necessarily. With the skill set Fultz possesses along with his size at 6-foot-4, Fultz is big enough to play the 2-guard in the NBA. Accompany his size with his ability to score and quickness does not force the Magic to make a decision on Elfrid Payton who seemed to be much more comfortable the second half of the season in a more up-tempo offense.
Payton is still only 23 years old and it may be a little early to give up on him.
But if Payton does flame out, the Magic could still shift Fultz to full-time point guard duties and serve as their point guard of the future.
There is also the ripple effect on how this would impact Evan Fournier. Fournier, who has shown he is more likely a second or third option on offense, would have a lighter workload going forward. Evan Fournier would also make an excellent sixth man, which is a role all contenders need to fill.
More versatility and more talent is never a bad thing for a team.
Scenario: The Magic land the #2 pick; Fultz off the board (9.7% chance of getting #2 pick)
Magic should draft: Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke
Why Jayson Tatum?
Tatum is arguably the second-best scorer in the draft behind Fultz. During his senior season at Chaminade Prep, Tatum passed Bradley Beal as the school’s all-time leading scorer. Tatum also averaged just less than 17 points per game (45 percent field goal shooting and 85 percent free throw shooting) during his lone season with the Duke Blue Devils.
The Magic, who scored 101.1 points per game last year and were 27th in the NBA this past season, desperately need help on offense. Tatum may be able to give the Magic a jolt of life on offense as a go-to scorer and fill a need as the small forward of the future.
Pass on Lonzo Ball?
Yes. While admittedly, Ball is a great talent, there is too much surrounding him for the Magic to take a chance on him in this draft.
This is not the 2016 Draft where the first two picks are viewed as head and shoulders above the rest. The Magic have options.
They can fill a need with a solid player without having to risk a jack-in-the-box type of surprise with Ball.
LaVar Ball has screamed from the mountain tops he wants his son to play for the Lakers. No one really knows the level of influence LaVar has over his son. And the last thing the Magic want to deal with is potentially losing another player to the Lakers. Or alienating a potential franchise centerpiece from the very start of their relationship.
However, from strictly a basketball standpoint Lonzo has the potential to be a great foundation moving forward.
At 6-foot-6, he has great size. Orlando has seen plenty of bigger ball-handlers (big baller handlers?) from Anfernee Hardaway to Hedo Turkoglu running point forward. Perhaps Ball would be able to use his size to his advantage in pick and roll situations similar to the Turkoglu-to-Howard combination.
Unlike Fultz, I do not see Ball being an effective 2-guard in the NBA even with his size. He does not have a score-first mentality and he would require a Robin to his Batman in order to get the most out of his game.
That lack of versatility and his poor defense should give the Magic pause as they try to rebuild their defense and turn that more fully into their identity.
Scenario: The Magic land the #3 pick; Fultz and Tatum off the board, Ball not an option (10.7% chance of getting #3 pick)
Magic should draft: Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas
Why Josh Jackson?
If Lonzo Ball finds himself falling in the draft and is still available with the third pick, I still pass.
Josh Jackson, like Tatum, fills a need for the Magic at small forward. Scouting reports have said Jackson needs to improve his shooting which is shown in the numbers (38 percent 3-point shooting, 57 percent free throw shooting).
But Jackson has been regarded as a superior athlete than Tatum and is projected to be a better defender. Perhaps with the third pick, the Magic can find the wing defender they were looking for when they drafted Victor Oladipo in 2013. And having him and Aaron Gordon together could make them a terror defending the perimeter.
The small forward domino effect
While Terrence Ross at 27 years old showed signs of life with the Magic, he is not the small forward of the future.
In the event the Magic take a small forward in this draft, Terrence Ross can play the sixth man role.
I alluded to this idea earlier with Evan Fournier eventually sliding to the bench to make room for Fultz. Bench scoring is incredibly important. The Magic can create depth if they address their needs from wing players this offseason.
This would also provide coach Frank Vogel with the opportunity to continue the Mario Hezonja experiment as a stretch-4 while using player versatility to employ the switching defensive schemes he likes.
Jackson is a smart and versatile player and fits the profile of players the Magic have liked who could slide into their lineup easily.
The Best of the Rest
Now that I have gotten your hopes up the reality is the Magic are most likely to land the fifth pick (26.1 percent) or sixth pick (35.9 percent). They are also roughly just as likely to land the seventh pick (8.4 percent) as they are the first pick (8.8 percent).
Let’s take a quick look at a few players the Magic could take if they land in the 5-7 window and how they could impact the future of the Magic.
Malik Monk, SG, Kentucky
Malik Monk is another player who would be able to contribute offensively being one of the top scorers in the draft. He averaged just less than 20 points per game with the Kentucky Wildcats. A solid 3-point shooter and great athlete, he would fit nicely into the rejuvenated offense we saw the second half of last season.
Orlando Magic
Jonathan Isaac, Forward, Florida State
Jonathan Isaac has great size at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot wingspan. He has a natural shooting ability, but he is still raw. Isaac would be a bit of a project. But, with Aaron Gordon playing the majority of his minutes at power forward, Isaac would not be asked to carry the load immediately. He is also a potential candidate to become the small forward of the future.
De’Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky
De’Aaron Fox put Lonzo Ball in a blender during the NCAA Tournament this year. Even though I think it may be too early to give up on Elfrid Payton, the Magic need to consider the best player available which may be Fox. Drafting Fox could make Payton expendable and open for a potential draft day trade. Fox is similar to Payton where he is an athletic driver and playmaker who has a suspect shot. But Fox may be a bigger athlete and his shot is slightly better in college than Payton.
Regardless of where the Magic fall in the Lottery on Tuesday, they will have an opportunity to move the franchise forward.
Next: Orlando Magic must seek a plan and stick to it
Each draft selection will raise questions the Magic will need to answer when factoring in the franchise’s future. But, with the 2017 Draft Class shaping up to be the best in more than a decade, the Magic will have a great chance to establish stability in Central Florida once again.