The Orlando Magic invested a lot in Elfrid Payton for the last few years, hoping he would take the next step. Like everyone else, he struggled to find a fit.
The NBA changed seemingly overnight. Or perhaps the 2017 season was the deluge of a trend that had been growing more and more the last few years.
Point guards ruled the day. Shooting was its greatest weapon. And offenses were about to explode in a way they had not in a long time in the NBA.
The league’s long-time rule changes for freedom of movement have seemingly finally peaked. Point guards now ruled everything as the floor became spread and their ability to dictate an offense became greater. It does not seem a team can win very much in the NBA without locking down the point guard position with someone who can control the tempo like this.
It is the ultimate weapon in the modern NBA. Look at the worst teams in the league, and many will have questions at point guard.
And so a lot of the Orlando Magic’s success or failure in the 2017 season would rely on whether Elfrid Payton could bounce back from a somewhat sluggish sophomore season. Through all the changes the Magic made to shift their lineup, Payton was the one guy the team still had to believe in.
After all, the reports were then-coach Scott Skiles and general manager Rob Hennigan clashed over Payton and his place in the modern NBA. The debate of whether he could truly be a franchise point guard would rage on.
At times, Payton does look like that. He can score in bunches and attack the basket and create for others. At times, Payton is exactly what a team does not need in a point guard — stagnant and unable to create his own shot on the perimeter.
The reality, like so many other things in the 2017 season, is we are no closer to an answer when it comes to Payton.
Before the All-Star Break, Payton struggled to find the space he needed. Bigs clogged the paint and there was no shooting to discourage defenses from collapsing around him. He took a lot more jumpers and teams were happy to give them.
After the All-Star Break, space opened up and Payton was able to attack much more effectively. It seemed to unlock everything Payton could be as he got to the rim more and was the engine for the team.
It is clear which style Payton prefers. And that appears to be the style the Magic will play moving forward.
But the questions for Payton remains. He both can control the pace of a game and take advantage of all the new rules that benefit point guard and he also cannot because of that troublesome jumper.
And with a new general manager coming into place, Payton has more to prove than anyone that he can be that point guard of the future even more.
The Good and the Bad
| G | GS | MP | FG% | 3P% | eFG% | FT% | TRB | AST | STL | TOV | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | 58 | 29.4 | .471 | .274 | .493 | .692 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 12.8 |
| 237 | 190 | 29.7 | .446 | .289 | .464 | .611 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 10.8 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/25/2017.
Like so much of the Orlando Magic’s season, Elfrid Payton’s season can be split into two segments — before the All-Star Break and after the All-Star Break (i.e. the Serge Ibaka–Terrence Ross trade).
Starting the year, Payton struggled with the cramped space. Coach Frank Vogel, seeking lineup and offensive balance, shifted him in and out of the starting lineup for a while. Payton just could not provide the offensive punch the Magic needed.
That was not completely his fault. The team’s roster construction was terrible. But this is not the style that suits Payton. And his numbers suffered for it.
Before the All-Star Break, Payton averaged 12.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game. His numbers and production were solid, if not a measure of progress from last year. At the very least, before the Break, Payton was as good as he was the year before.
That was not good enough.
Neither was his 45.7 percent shooting and 26.8 percent 3-point shooting. Vogel gave him more freedom to look for his shots. And Payton showed some renewed confidence. But that confidence did not create results.
Payton did not get to the rim as often — taking 303 of his 654 shots (46.3 percent) within five feet, according to NBA.com. He settled a lot more, taking 142 of his 654 shots (21.7 percent) from outside 20 feet.
Quite simply, the offense did not fit Payton. There was too little space for him to operate, forcing him to play on the perimeter rather than on the attack. There was not enough shooting to spread defenses out and Serge Ibaka, Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo took up valuable real estate in the paint.
After the All-Star Break was a different story.
With Ibaka gone and Terrence Ross providing extra shooting on the perimeter, things finally opened up for Payton. He averaged 13.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game. Triple doubles became regular in this season of the triple double. Payton was in attack mode and it showed.
Orlando Magic
According to NBA.com, Payton took 148 of his 258 shots (57.4 percent) within five feet of the basket. He took just 21 of 258 shots (8.1 percent) of his shots from outside 20 feet. It was a dramatic turnaround for Payton who suddenly found himself able to get all the way to the basket.
Payton is far more effective when he goes north-south rather than east-west. When he is able to get downhill and into the paint he is as dangerous as they come with a solid floater and plenty of speed, size and strength to finish at the rim.
He still has all that capability. And his post-All-Star Break play was encouraging. That is the Elfrid Payton the Magic need.
And throughout the season, there was no player who had more of an effect on wins and losses than Payton. That is both a sign of his inconsistency and the reality of how important the point guard position is.
But Payton still has a big weakness outside of his shooting. His defense is still suspect, although it bounced back from his terrible sophomore season.
Payton struggled mightily on the defensive end his sophomore year, getting eaten up on screens and beat one on one. With all the great point guards in the league, this weakness became apparent, leaving Nikola Vucevic in no man’s land far too often trying to contain both a point guard and a post player behind him.
According to Basketball-Reference, Payton recorded 2.0 defensive win shares and a +0.8 defensive box plus-minus. Both were slightly worse than his rookie year but significantly better than his sophomore year (1.7 defensive win shares and a -0.5 defensive box plus-minus).
Observationally, Payton’s defense was only marginally better. Still, too often he allowed too much dribble penetration and got beat putting the Magic’s already hurting defense at a disadvantage.
Best Game of 2017
March 8, 2017 vs. Chicago Bulls
22 points, 14 rebounds (6 offensive), 14 assists
Elfrid Payton had some real stellar games this season. Particularly as the season came to a close, Payton seemed to get on a role as he racked up triple doubles with regularity. His scoring also seemed to increase in some big games. But it was hard to align those with wins where he absolutely took over the game.
The Magic’s March 8 win over the Chicago Bulls was something more than Payton stuffing a stat sheet, which he had a tendency to do late in the season. This was a game where Payton took over and dominated himself while also keeping others involved.
Payton attacked the glass both with the ball and for rebounds as he ran circles around the Chicago Bulls. This game marked Payton’s fifth career triple-double and his second consecutive game with a triple double. Payton was joining in on the fun of the triple-double season.
The Bulls had control over the game early and Payton was able to bring the Magic back into it. He had to as he grabbed a career-high 14 rebounds and dished out a career-high 14 assists.
This was Payton playing at his absolute best, doing what he can do when teams give him space and a head start driving to the basket. He was smart attacking the basket and finishing near the rim, never settling for jumpers and keeping his head up for teammates.
Everything Payton could be and would become in the second half of the season was previewed in this game.
2018 Outlook
As the season wound down in a close game with the Detroit Pistons, Elfrid Payton was the guy the Orlando Magic relied on to hit some big shots. They trusted him with the ball and the game on the line.
Payton rewarded them hitting three consecutive jumpers to close out the Pistons and deliver the Magic a win.
The consequences of these shots should not be overlooked. The win dropped the Magic from a tie for the fourth most Lottery combinations to fifth. The joke was Payton literally saved his job by making those three shots.
The reality may not quite be that cut and dry. But this is a point guard heavy draft and three years of inconsistency has Payton’s future role with the Magic, if not his place outright on the team, in question.
Three years into his career, Payton has established some things about himself. But the biggest thing is his inconsistency. He is a quality point guard option, but his shortcomings can prevent him from playing at a starter level every game — at least for a winning team. It is always unclear what kind of Payton the team will get.
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At a certain point, a player has to define himself. And with the pressure for the Magic to win continuing to grow, questions have to be asked about Payton directly. Especially now that there will be a new general manager coming in.
Payton’s future with the Magic likely depends on what happens in the upcoming NBA Draft. If the Magic land a high pick, they likely will take a point guard like Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball. That means Payton’s days in Orlando are numbered. If they do not, Payton may get a reprieve.
Like with Vucevic for so long, Payton is a good option. And point guard is an important position that the Magic should not give up on Payton without having his replacement in place.
It sure seems like, with Payton’s restricted free agency looming after the 2018 season, that Payton’s days are numbered without significant improvement.
Final Grade
It is still hard to figure out exactly who Elfrid Payton is and what player he can be for the Orlando Magic in the long term. That as much as anything was what the Magic needed to learn this year from this young point guard.
One of the risks the Magic took this year was believing in Payton. It almost literally ripped the franchise apart in many ways. Orlando needed Payton to step up.
The Magic did not give Payton the best opportunity to do so, just like with so many players on this mismatched roster. He was clearly affected as much as any player by the decision to go big. And the lack of shooting brought his weaknesses to the forefront.
Once the Magic opened up the floor for him, Payton became unleashed and a much better basketball player. He was perhaps the Magic’s best overall player after the All-Star Break.
But those weaknesses remained. And despite all the triple doubles, the Magic still lost games. His defense, supposedly a reason to draft him back in 2014, remained below average.
It all leads to bigger questions about Payton and his place on the team moving forward.
Next: NBA.com names top 10 Orlando Magic plays of 2017
Like so many things that happened this season, Payton did not take the next step forward. And it was hard to find any consistency from him.