2016-17 Orlando Magic Player Evaluations: Nikola Vucevic

Heading into the season Nikola Vucevic had a lot going for him. He was being paired with Frank Vogel and Serge Ibaka. Did Nikola Vucevic live up to expectations?

Last season, Nikola Vucevic had a career year on the offensive side of the ball, averaging 18.2 points per game. But there were still very real concerns regarding his defense.

With Scott Skiles‘ resignation and the subsequent hire of defensive guru Frank Vogel, many expected Vucevic to make a leap defensively. Add in the fact the Orlando Magic acquired the player many had pegged as Vucevic’s perfect complement: Serge Ibaka.

Vucevic and the Magic should have been poised to make a huge leap this season.

Instead, the Magic floundered. Vucevic regressed offensively and was benched for parts of the season in an effort to light a spark for the zombie Magic.

The dream pairing with Ibaka did not work out. The two struggled to gel defensively and the whole pairing collapsed. With another post player clogging the lane, Vucevic took more jump shots and his field goal percentage dropped dramatically.

His numbers bounced back after the All-Star Break when the Magic went smaller and traded away Ibaka. This is when the team stopped playing Vucevic with another big like Ibaka or Bismack Biyombo. But they never recovered to the levels of last year. Vucevic averaged 16.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per game on 45.3 percent shooting.

Vucevic did not reach his previous levels offensively. While his defense showed some improvement, it was not enough to make a big effect on the Magic.

He was still a valuable player. Vucevic could still hit a jumper and he could still get a double-double. Even off the bench, he would produce the counting stats the team needed. But the team needed a bit more.

Then again, they needed a bit more from everybody. Vucevic was just one of the many.

In the end, Vucevic was one of the many players who struggled to adjust to the team’s changes and mismatched roster.

The Good and the Bad

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/23/2017.

One big positive for Nikola Vucevic this season was his marked improvement on the defensive end. Frank Vogel and his staff did a great job of teaching Nikola Vucevic how to use verticality in an effective matter.

Vucevic recorded a career-best 3.2 defensive win shares and a career-best 2.4 defensive box plus-minus, according to Basketball-Reference. Vucevic’s defense measurably improved.

While Vucevic will never be a monstrous shot blocker due to his lack of athleticism, he can become a nuisance at the rim. He took a step toward that direction this year.

Another area where Vucevic improved on defense was the activity with his hands. Vucevic at moments this year was a decent pick-and-roll defender against slower guards because he was able to disrupt their flow with active hands.

After a down season last year, Vucevic also picked up his rebounding. His rebounding jumped from 8.9 to 10.4 per game even though he was playing nearly three fewer minutes per game this season. His rebound rate recovered from 15.7 percent to 19.6 percent. Though for some reason (possibly scheme) the big man’s offensive rebounding continued to stay lower than his prior marks.

But Vucevic regressed in a big way offensively.

His raw numbers, efficiency and touches all went down this year. The largest concern on that end for Vucevic is his lack of free throw attempts per touch. Vucevic last season put up one of the lowest free throw rates for his field goal attempts per game in NBA history.

This season did not go much better for Vucevic as he only improved his free throw rate by a shade, coming up to 15.5 from 14.3.

In addition to his raw numbers going down, Vucevic’s offensive game was much less diverse this season.

Vucevic did not post or face up his opponent nearly as much. He settled for a larger portion of jumpers. He was not nearly as good at them this year compared to last.

But these numbers are likely skewed due to Vucevic’s attempt to expand his range out to the 3-point line this season.

Best Game of 2017

Jan. 13 vs Trail Blazers
30 Points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks 13/18 FGs

This game is the game Nikola Vucevic truthers will point to when they claim he is a franchise center. Vucevic was absolutely outstanding this game on both ends of the court.

On offense Vucevic had Mason Plumlee overmatched all game. His jumper was falling. He was going to the post and showing off the footwork he showed flashes of last season. Vucevic rebounded well and even made the right reads when it came to passing the rock.

But all of those things pale in comparison to how great his defense was in the pick and roll against Damian Lillard. This game really made me reconsider what Vucevic’s defensive ceiling was. His hands disrupted the pick and roll, and he was also able to recover well against Lillard.

Lillard is one of the more explosive point guards in the league and one of its best pick-and-roll players. If Vucevic was able to contain the pick and roll in this game why can’t he do it most nights?

That is an answer I do not really think will be answered. But Vucevic did it for this game and was better throughout the season at this supposed weakness.

2018 Outlook

Honestly, it is hard to say what Nikola Vucevic’s outlook is for 2018.

He showed improvement as a defender. But the team still cannot trust him consistently to slow down pick and rolls against the league’s most athletic position. Ideally, Vucevic would be the sixth man on this Orlando team, bringing his consistent scoring off the bench so the Magic would not turn completely anemic once the starters head out.

In 20 games as a reserve, Vucevic averaged 14.3 points and 9.4 rebounds per game in 28.2 minutes per game.

But we have seen this year Vucevic thinks fairly highly of himself and is not necessarily willing to take on that role. He claimed he was the best player on the team when the team was struggling. He also noted his displeasure when Bismack Biyombo took over the starting role.

Vucevic has proven he is a solid NBA player. The problem he is facing now is he has been a featured player on a bad team for five straight seasons. He does not seem willing to accept a lesser role because his role has been established for so long.

Vucevic’s professionalism should be applauded, he has done nothing to make the franchise look bad. He is mostly positive. And when he does air his displeasure, he does not seem very malicious.

But for Orlando’s long-term interest it may be best to part ways with him. The Magic have $28 million per year invested in centers and neither Biyombo nor Vucevic rank in the top half of NBA starters at their position.

The team needs to be rebuilt and Vucevic may be the first casualty of that process.

Final Grade

Everything was supposed to be pointing Vucevic’s way this season.

He had a supposed breakout year on offense last year. People had been clamoring for a rim protector to make up for his lack thereof the past few years. He finally got that in Serge Ibaka.

But it was proven you just cannot help him like that.

Individually, Vucevic made strides on the defensive end. He still will not ever be an elite rim protector, but he no longer is a complete liability on that end.

Offensively he is who he is whether fans want to admit it. Vucevic is a really good jump shooter from mid-range and a good passer.

Outside of that, his offensive game is fairly weak. He is not strong enough to take most guys down on the block. And when he gets there, he is not very effective.

In the pick and roll, he continues to prove the roll is technically optional. He will set a half-hearted pick and then he will pop most of the time. Teams rarely have to worry about the roll and it hurts Orlando’s offense.

Now with six seasons under his belt, it is pretty fair to say we probably know what kind of player Vucevic is. He is a good volume scoring big to have off the bench. Which he actually showed this year. His numbers as a reserve and a starter were nearly identical.

Next: 2017 Orlando Magic Season Review: A season of miscalculations

He still is not good enough defensively and probably is not physically capable of defending the elite athletes at point guard. Ultimately, that will continue to hold him back.