For five years, the Orlando Magic have tried to build through the Draft and relying on young players. With few results, their development plan is stunted.
In the past five years, no team has had better draft positions than the Orlando Magic. Read that again.
Since Dwight Howard left in 2012, no team has been given more opportunities to improve with high picks. And while the Magic have never won the top prize and had only one top-three pick in that time, no team has seemingly done less with those opportunities.
The Magic have had five picks in the top 12 in the past four years (with one at 19 in 2012). That is more than any other team except the Sacramento Kings. What company.
In fairness, the Kings had five picks within the top 10 in this era. Then again, only one was in the top five (a number five pick in 2012), the Magic had three inside the top five. It is hard to say whether either team is better off for it.
Here is the full draft history for the past five years:
- 2012: No. 19 Andrew Nicholson
- 2013: No. 2 Victor Oladipo
- 2014: No. 4 Aaron Gordon
- 2014: No. 12 Dario Saric (traded for No. 10 Elfrid Payton)
- 2015: No. 5 Mario Hezonja
- 2016: No. 11 Domantas Sabonis (traded as part of the deal for Serge Ibaka)
It is quite a run that shows just how much the Magic have struggled on the court, how unlucky they have been in the Lottery — of the three top-five picks, the 2015 selection was the only time the Magic did not worsen their position thanks to the Lottery — and how poorly young players have developed.
You would be hard pressed to find a team with better opportunities in the last half decade. Yet here the Magic are, with the team in a worse place than it has been in the last two seasons. Despite all this luck, the Magic have cracked 40% winning percentage just once (last year at 42.7, good for 35 wins). To match that total this year, the Magic need to go 11-3 the rest of the way.
Despite all these opportunities, the Magic have cracked 40 percent winning percentage just once (last year at 42.7, good for 35 wins). To match that total this year, the Magic need to go 11-3 the rest of the way.
That is not likely to happen. Oorlando is again staring down a top-five pick and a wish for some Lottery luck to change the franchise’s course.
So why the lack (or complete reversal) of progress?
It’s simple: The Orlando Magic are one of the worst teams at developing talent in the entire NBA.
Retention
Let’s start with how many of these players are still with the team.
Of the six players mentioned above, only three remain. Andrew Nicholson and Victor Oladipo are gone. And Domantas Sabonis never arrived.
The Magic acquired Maurice Harkless from the Philadelphia 76ers before his rookie year as part of the Dwight Howard trade. He was unceremoniously traded for a second round pick the Magic would never receive. He now starts for the Portland Trail Blazers.
Digging even further, the Magic acquired a young Tobias Harris, saw him blossom, signed him to a new deal and then traded him for expiring contracts. He may be a Sixth Man of the Year candidate for the Playoff-bound Detroit Pistons.
You could argue Mario Hezonja still has not arrived. He averaged 17.9 minutes per game last year and 12.9 this season (and that is increasing in the the past few weeks).
Even Aaron Gordon has only just begun to break into full minutes. This, in itself, is not a good start, especially considering their highest pick and most talented player, in Oladipo, was traded away for a player who did not even last the full year with the team. That was part of the gamble the magic made in trading Oladipo away.
It is also not a great look that Oladipo will likely be in the playoffs this year. Domantas Sabonis is a rotation player with him. Further, Dario Saric may be a late pick for Rookie of the Year (he has averages of 20.0 points, 8.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game in the last 30 days, all while shooting 47.0 percent from the field).
And while the Magic did not draft Dewayne Dedmon, they did have him from his first season to this current one. Instead of keeping his qualifying offer and the right to match, they rescinded the offer and let him go unrestricted. He has found success with the San Antonio Spurs.
Orlando had a lot of promising young players for sure. It would have been nearly impossible to keep all of them. And together, they were not producing quite the results the Magic envisioned. But through poor development, mismanagement of assets and bad timing, the Magic have lost a lot of potential.
When looking at the whole picture, it seems a lot more has leaked from the Magic’s bucket than has been poured in.
Impact
Not all the picks were presented with an opportunity to succeed.
The Magic handed Victor Oladipo and Elfrid Payton playing time immediately. Both went on to enjoy successful rookie campaigns, even if inconsistent playing time and undefined roles marred subsequent years. More importantly, they both joined the team at a stage where the Magic were willing to suffer through mistakes for the sake of development.
Aaron Gordon only played 47 games in his rookie season thanks to a fracture in his foot suffered early on in the season. But he has been slowly building since and is now the unquestioned starter — no matter what forward position the Magic play him at.
Mario Hezonja, who played sparingly last year as a rookie, has somehow managed to go backwards. His minutes decreased and he fell out of Frank Vogel’s rotation. Many fans are left scratching their heads about why coaches will not give him a chance.
His lack of production has not helped. Neither did the Magic taking a player who was going to need time to grow and develop onto a roster that was going to demand winning immediately. Unlike rookies before him, the Magic were not at a stage to suffer through Hezonja’s mistakes.
When picked up by a playoff team, rookies come to expect lower playing time in exchange for the glory of wins and the secure environment of a strong team as they learn. When drafted by a rebuilding team, the expectation would be room to make mistakes, to pay their dues, but the Magic have not provided this for some time.
And perhaps the Magic pushed too quickly to win considering the young talent still needing time to grow and make mistakes.
Coaching
The problem of not developing talent stretches back far in Magic history, but even when looking at the last two seasons, coaching seems a common problem.
The Magic elected to hire first Scott Skiles and then Frank Vogel the following summer. Both coaches had past successes, but both were known for not wanting to play younger players. A product of their drive to win, in Skiles’ case, and Vogel’s roster being ready to compete.
More importantly for the Magic, the constant coaching changes have led to an unstable environment for the Magic’s young players. Instead of fine tuning their skills for a specific offense or defense they are comfortable with, the past three seasons they have had to work under new coaches.
For a young point guard like Elfrid Payton, this is especially damaging. He has had to learn a new offense and be the starting point guard for a new coach in each of his three seasons. That is asking a lot. And Payton’s inconsistency and slow comfort is at least partially attributable to this.
Quite simply, no matter who the coach is, a new staff brings a new relationship and a new trust that has to develop. That can stunt any young players’ growth.
The Magic’s instability at head coach the last three years has absolutely slowed their progress.
Orlando Magic
For the past two years, the desire to win and make the Playoffs after a prolonged absence has also hurt.
Of course, every NBA team and every NBA coach begin the season wanting to amount the most amount of wins possible. But the Magic have been willing to try for this at the exclusion of developing their young talent the past two seasons.
At a certain point, a team must choose development over chasing futile wins.
Frank Vogel tried to include his young players early. Mario Hezonja was a key part of the rotation for the first few weeks. But with so many new pieces to integrate and a seeming Playoff mandate, Hezonja’s struggles quickly saw him pushed to the bench in favor of veterans Vogel could trust.
There was not the space or the success for Vogel to mine another Paul George as he had in his first tenure with the Indiana Pacers.
Unfortunately, Vogel’s tenure has been more of the same. As mentioned, Hezonja has been pushed further back into the cupboard, and Aaron Gordon spent half the year playing a new position with very limited success — a product of roster construction which the coach and the general manager share blame.
As a point of reference, even now, sitting at second worst in the Eastern conference, Hezonja has cracked 20 minutes of playing time just twice in March.
The instability at coach and the push for wins over development have cost the Magic the last few years and have hurt some valuable assets.
The road to success
No two paths are the same in the NBA, but there are similarities.
Some teams are located in prime real estate, always included in rumors of snagging the latest star in free agency, such as the Los Angeles Lakers. Some have such a storied history players claw at the chance of joining the history books, like the Boston Celtics. For some, it is the chance at success, such as the Golden State Warriors offer. And some players are so gravitating they are always in the mix, like anywhere LeBron James cares to go.
The Magic have none of that, aside from good weather, a state-of-the-art arena and a nice tax law. That has not been enough to attract top-flight free agents yet.
The Magic have no choice but to develop young talent, or pull off a mastery team construction plan.
Dwight Howard is obviously the prime example of the Magic drafting and taking a player to prominence, and it is one that cannot be argued. It is certainly easier to find transformative players when a team wins the top pick in the Lottery, something the Magic have not had the fortune of doing.
Even when looking around the league, rebuilding projects have started and moved on before the Magic’s has ever offered any real hope.
The Celtics’ Danny Ainge jealously grabbed any draft pick he could (and he still holds many) but was able to bring in a solid layer of young players to support a coach that could work with them and vault them to success.
The 76ers were the butt of jokes for years, yet they have overtaken the Magic in the standings this year. Their young players excite, and their fan base seems much more hopeful than the Magic’s fan base. Winning the Lottery to draft Joel Embiid (one spot ahead of Aaron Gordon) and Ben Simmons with the top overall pick can quickly change outlooks.
It seems almost every young roster is providing more hope than the Magic.
After all, the Orlando Magic have won more than 30 wins once in five years. They have finished last in their division in the last five years and have just two top-10 finishes league-wide in any of the major categories in the last five years — the Magic were nine in defensive rebounding in 2013 and seventh in assists last season.
The Magic fan base is understandably frustrated. And they deserve to have a team they can invest in, can grow with and can be proud of cheering for. This team has disappointed and fell short of all expectations.
To take the next step, the Magic need to focus on getting their ingredients in the bowl first, and focusing on their young players. The Magic’s youth has been listed as a strength for seasons with few results.
Next: Orlando Magic face decision on Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton
It is time to stop listing and start baking.